This paper examines Risk management practices and financial distress position of Janata
Bank Limited with quantitative measurement of Stress Testing and Z-Score Testing to
portrait the real scenario of the bank's financial structure and ability to sustain its growth with
uncertain future outcomes. In this report I tried to examine the major risk JBL faces and its
different policy against those risks. I also tried to find out its financial stability to sustain in
future against those risks through Z Score analysis.
In part A, I described current economic crisis and some major macroeconomic variables that
affecting banking industry and put banking business at risk. Then I gave a brief review about
some major risks in banking industry. Later I discussed different policy that JBL issues
according to the guidelines issued by Bangladesh Bank. There are 12 core guidelines that
JBL issues to maintain its organizational and financial position against risks.
I also conducted stress testing of JBL for the year 2013 and 2014 as it is one of the major tool
that alerts bank management to adverse unexpected outcomes related to a variety of risks and
provides an indication of how much capital might be needed to absorb losses should large
shocks occur The major uncertain outcome of banking industry is its Non Performing Loans.
I found that four out of five under credit shocks banks CAR fell below 10% in every scenario.
In Exchange rate bank CAR also fell below 10% in every scenario.
There are plenty of quantitative tools available for measuring the financial performance of a
business firm. In the report I lastly analyze bank financial stability through Z score of JBL
along with three others State-Owned Banks (Sonali, Rupali, Agrani) from the data set 20092010. In the analysis dependent variables Z Score relation is analyzed with four
microeconomic independent variables that are total assets; loan to assets ratio; cost ratio;
income diversity of the banks.
I run five models (OLS, OLS Robust, Fixed Effect, Random effect and Hausman Test). In
OLS model, Z score has significant relationship with L/TA ratio and with income diversity.
Co-efficient between Z score and income diversity is positive which indicates banks
financial stability. In OLS Robust model, impacts of income diversification and Loan to
assets ratio to Z score are significant. Loan to assets ratio has significant influence on Z score
in Fixed Effect model. Random model shows income diversity has only positive co-efficient
with Z score. Loan to assets ratio & income diversity has significant influence on Z score in
Random Effect. Lastly Hausman test said that random model is better as Probability of chi
square is insignificant.
In part B, I briefly describe about Janata bank Limited and my internship experience during
my internship period.
Page | 1
ACRONYMS
JBL- Janata Bank Limited
CAR -Capital Adequacy Ratio
CRAB -Credit Rating Agency of Bangladesh
GDP-Gross domestic Products
BB- Bangladesh Bank
BBS-Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics
GDS-Gross Domestic Savings
SOBs-State-owned banks
FCBs-Foreign commercial banks
PCBs-Private commercial banks
NPL-Non-performing loans
KYC-Know Your Customers
AML -Anti Money Laundering
ICMAB-Institute of Cost and Management Accountants of Bangladesh
ABA -Asian Bankers Association
BMAP-Bank Marketing Association of the Philippines
Page | 2
Part A
Risk Management of Janata Bank Ltd:
A Panel Analysis for Financial Stability
from 2009-2014
Page | 3
Chapter-01
Introduction
Page | 4
Page | 5
Primary Sources
Six Weeks practical participation in internship
Face-to-Face conversation with the respective officers and staffs
Relevant file study provided by the officers concerned
Page | 6
Secondary Sources
Risk Management Guideline for banks, published by Department of Off-site
Supervision, Bangladesh Bank.
Banking Risk Management Manual.
Annual Reports of Janata , Sonali, Rupali and Agrani banks for the year 2009-2014.
Stress testing guidelines issued by Bangladesh bank (2010)
Relevant books, Research papers, Newspapers and Journals.
Internet and various study selected reports.
Page | 7
Chapter-02
Literature Review
Page | 8
LITERATURE REVIEW
Banks are at the heart of the economic system of a country. The banking industry plays a
crucial role in the progress of the financial system of the country. There are currently 56
banks operating in Bangladesh. These banks are grouped into four categories of scheduled
banks. These are the State-owned Commercial Banks (SCBs), State-owned Development
Financial Institutions (DFIs), Private Commercial Banks (PCBs) and Foreign Commercial
Banks (FCBs). Bank failure is not an uncommon phenomenon. In corporate finance, a
situation of bank failure is known as Financial Distress. Financial distress is difficult to
define specifically. This is true partly because of the variety of events responsible for
financial distress. The list of events is almost endless but listed are some reasons of bank
failure: operating losses, dividend reductions, branch closings, increasing trend of nonperforming loans (NPLs), volatility of the return on asset (ROA) and return on equity (ROE)
etc. To avoid situation of financial distress Bank introduces Risk Management Policy and
some other rules and regulations regarding compliance issues in its daily banking activities.
Significant studies have examined risk management practices worldwide. However, the
empirical studies in the context of Bangladesh are scarce. Linbo (2004) worked with risk
management in major banks of United States. The author provides two important information
about banking efficiency. His finding suggests that profitability is sensitive to credit risk.
According to Ho Hahm (2004), interest rate risk is a common phenomenon in Korean
commercial banks than the exchange rate risks. Niinimaki (2004) mentioned that the degree
of risk taking depends on the structure and side of the market in which competition takes
place. If the banks work in a monopoly market or banks are competing only in the loan
market, deposit insurance has no effect on risk taking. Banks in this situation tend to take
more risk than that of a competitive market operator, although intense risk taking is avoided.
Al-Tamimi (2002) investigated commercial banks in UAE. It reveals that the credit risk was a
major concern. Credit risk was examined by Salas and Saurina (2002) among the Spanish
banks. The study covered 1985-1997 and compared the determinants of problem loans.
Various risk management practices in financial organizations became the need of the time
just after the financial distress faced by the whole world in last decade. In particular, United
States required long time to restore their economy with serious regulatory changes. Many
post crisis analysts found dissimilarities in terms of risk identification and management in
different banks and financial organization before and during the crisis which was a selfdestructive thought that brought such loss to the world economy. Risk management defines
the need of identification of core risks, method to develop consistent and accurate risk
measurement, give the importance of risk reduction, avoidance and transfer through proper
risk return calculation and best monitoring procedures of risk position for the organization.
For banks, meeting the regulation not necessarily can avoid bankruptcy or financial
harassment. Bank personnel require reliable risk identification, measurement and
management culture to follow and monitor best risk-reward ratio.
Page | 9
Wang and Sheng-Yung (2004) examined profit diversification among the major banks. Their
results suggested that the foreign exchange risk seems the most vulnerable one among the
others. In a study of top 20 Japanese banks, Khambata and Bagdi (2003) revealed that the
financial derivatives (for example, off-balance-sheet) have been extremely used by the major
banks. These banks are using this as profit diversification. Comparing their results of Asian
banks with major banks in USA and Europe, Asian banks are lagging behind in practicing
profit diversification.
According to Altman (1968), failure, insolvency, default and bankruptcy are four different
terms and they all mean that a business is in distress. Any sort of financial distress is an
unfortunate situation for a business firm. Bankruptcy may be the worst case scenario for
certain companies, but in the case of the business stakeholders, default also can cause
problems.
According to the study by Brown Bridge (1998), most of the bank failures were caused by
non-performing loans. In most of the cases, non-performing loans become bad loans.
Muniappan (2002) argued that a high degree of NPLs is responsible for non-income
generating assets that not only affect the profitability of the banks but also have great impact
on the capital adequacy of the banks. Lata (2014) said that NPLs in Bangladesh have become
a very sensitive issue in recent years.
There are plenty of quantitative tools available for measuring the financial performance of a
business firm. But the Altmans Z-score has been proven to be a more reliable tool. Z-score
model is able to provide 80%90% accuracy in predicting bankruptcy one year before the
event. The Z-score uses multiple corporate income and balance sheet items to measure the
financial strength of a company. This model is devoted to forecasting possibilities of
bankruptcy of manufacturing as well as non-manufacturing concerns.
Gomath (2012) analyzed the financial health of selected oil refineries in India by using the
Altman Z-score model. And he found that almost all of the selected firms are above the
standard bankruptcy line which is put by Altman in his model.
Amadasu (2012) evaluated the financial distress of selected commercial banks in Nigerian
from 2003 to 2007 with four packages of analysis, i.e. multiple discriminate analysis,
ordinary least squares regression, correlation Matrix and Logit-Probit regression, for
sophistication and effectiveness instead. The finding is that working capital/total asset
(default ratio) among others should be closely taken care of and the major recommendation is
that bank officials or corporate managers whose firms failed should not be with impunity.
Page | 10
Chapter-03
Current Economic Condition
Page | 11
Foreign exchange reserves in Bangladesh stood at 27,140 USD million in January of 2016,
following a record high of 27,490 USD million in December 2015. The decline is mainly
attributed to a rise in imports. Foreign Exchange Reserves in Bangladesh averaged 14434.70
USD Million from 2008 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 27580 USD Million in
September of 2015 and a record low of 7470.90 USD Million in June of 2008.
Regarding export, around 80 per cent of the total export earnings are coming from USA and
European countries. Bangladesh's export items have low price elasticity and targeted towards
relatively lower income groups.
Bangladeshs balance of trade position is always in deficit. As import prone country the
country can get some opportunities. Importable commodities like food, oil, fertilizers etc.
have been decreased. Bangladesh has dramatically reduced dependency syndrome on foreign
aid and loans for last 25 years. In the proposed budget of FY 2015-2016 it has been expected
that 2% of the Total receipts will come as a foreign aid and 8.2% as a foreign loan.
Bangladesh Trade
Balance of Trade
Exports
Imports
Current Account
Current Account to GDP
Capital Flows
Remittances
Gold Reserves
Foreign Direct Investment
External Debt
Last
-74.86
192.13
266.99
-496.00
0.80
0.33
1310.00
13.78
1504.00
23.70
Previous
-69.98
196.36
266.34
273.00
0.40
3.14
1137.54
13.78
1726.00
22.40
Highest
0.00
211.99
284.13
1526.00
3.70
679.50
1491.36
13.78
1726.00
23.70
Lowest
-128.40
0.05
0.57
-1638.00
-4.40
-12.72
1005.80
3.29
276.00
16.17
Unit
BDT Billion
BDT Billion
BDT Billion
USD Million
percent
BDT Billion
USD Million
Tones
USD Million
USD Billion
Another indicator of the state of Bangladesh economy in relation to the U.S. economy is the
exchange value of the Bangladesh currency against the U.S. dollar. Currently Bangladesh
Page | 13
Bank is trying to maintain stabilization of USD against Bangladesh Taka. The exchange rate
ranged from Tk 77.8:$1 to Tk 78.0:$1 in this year. If the global crisis would have affected
Bangladesh severely, the Bangladesh currency would have depreciated significantly.
However, the value of Taka against the US dollar has remained stable since 2006 and
continued to maintain its value against the U.S. dollar up until now and perhaps appreciated a
bit against the dollar. However, exporters and remittances senders are pressing hard to
deprecate Taka against USD.
Bangladesh has positioned itself as a forward-looking nation in the world economy through
its steady and stable growth performance over the years amid natural calamities, external
shock and political turmoil. The growth potential of Bangladesh has been recognized by
many global surveys. JP Morgan Chase placed Bangladesh as one of the frontier five markets
and Goldman Sachs ranked the country among 11 emerging markets after BRICS (a bloc of
Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). The country has also achieved Ba3 and BB
ratings with stable outlook in consecutive years (2010-13) by S&P and Moody's,
respectively.
Page | 15
Page | 16
Chapter-04
Theoretical Framework on
Bank Risks
Page | 17
Market Risk:
Market risks are risks arising from changes in financial market conditions and affect
negatively the value of financial products, and, therefore, the net income and net worth of
banking institutions. Market risk can also include the risks associated with the cost of
borrowing securities, dividend risk, correlation risk and liquidation risk.
Page | 18
Liquidity Risk:
In general, liquidity risk is referred to the banks inability to make its daily money
transactions. Liquidity risk arises on both sides of the balance bank sheet. On the liability
side, liquidity risk represents the inability of banks to satisfy their depositors, especially in
period of panic and loss of trust to the banks which leads to massive deposit withdrawals. On
the asset side, liquidity risk represents the banks inability to have the appropriate assets to
contract new loans, advances or facilities, and make new investments in opportunities.
Operational Risk:
Operational risk is the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes,
people and systems or from external events. It is the risk remaining after determining
financing and systematic risk, and includes risks resulting from breakdowns in internal
procedures, people and systems.
Page | 19
Risk identification
Modification
Risk Description
Risk Estimation
Risk Evaluation
Risk Reporting
Threats & Opportunities
Formal
Audit
Decision
Risk Treatment
Residual Risk Reporting
Monitoring
Figure: Risk Management Process
Concerning the model of risk management process, it embraces all the factors that are needed
so as the risk management approach to be effective and successful.
Once the organizations strategic objectives have been defined, risk assessment has to follow.
Risk assessment is defined as the overall process of risk analysis and risk evaluation.
Page | 20
Risk analysis begins with Risk identification; an evaluation of the banks exposure to
uncertainty. This requires a detailed view, not only of the banks philosophy and operation
but also of the market and of the general environment in which it operates and exists.
Risk description is part of risk analysis and has as objective to display the identified risks in
a structured manner so as to ensure a comprehensive risk identification, description and
assessment process.
Risk estimation is the final step of risk analysis and can be quantitative, semi quantitative or
qualitative in terms of the probability of occurrence and the possible consequence.
When the risk analysis process has been completed, it is necessary to compare the estimated
risks against risk criteria which the organization has established. The risk criteria may include
associated costs and benefits, legal requirements, socioeconomic and environmental factors,
concerns of stakeholders, etc. Risk evaluation therefore, is used to make decisions about the
significance of risks to the organization and whether each specific risk should be accepted or
treated.
After the decisions are taken, the risk treatment follows in order to cure the risks; it is the
process of selecting and implementing measures to modify them. Risk treatment mainly
includes risk control/mitigation, but also extends further to functions like risk avoidance, risk
transfer, risk financing, etc. A reporting and review procedure follows in order to ensure
that risks are effectively identified and assessed and that appropriate controls and responses
developed. Regular audits of policy and standards compliance should be carried out and
standards performance reviewed to identify opportunities for improvement.
Finally, the monitoring process should reassure that the controls for the banks activities are
appropriate and the procedures are understood and followed.
In these guidelines, 'credit' means all types of loans and advances and 'borrower' means
obligor or counterparty.
Page | 21
Chapter-05
Risk Management of JBL
Under Bangladesh Bank
Guidelines
Page | 22
Page | 23
Board of Directors
Executive Risk
Management Committee
CRM
Sub-Com
ALM
Sub-Com
F.Ex
Sub-Com
AML
Sub-Com
ICC
Sub-Com
ICT
Sub-C0m
Strategic Principles
Risk Appetite
Framework
Governing Financial
Framework
Risk Management
Techniques
Measurement, Monitoring &
Reporting
Stress Testing
Page | 25
iii.
iv.
AND
M ANAGEMENT REPORTING
An effective risk monitoring procedure exists in the bank to identify and measure
all quantifiable and material risk factors;
JBL has a separate Management Information Systems Department which provides
necessary information to Risk Management Department and senior management
for understanding the banks positions and risk exposures in time;
A strong risk management monitoring culture has been framed in JBL to address
all sorts of material risks;
Adequate and accurate reports containing sufficient information are being
produced to senior management for identifying any adverse trends and evaluating
the level of risk.
Page | 26
Sector concentration
Large Borrower concentration
Single Borrower concentration
Geographical concentration
Non-performing loans
Credit growth
Loan-deposit ratio etc.
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
f)
g)
Selection of borrower;
Credit appraisal;
Credit assessment;
Credit risk grading;
Credit approval & sanctioning;
Credit disbursement;
Credit monitoring;
Page | 28
SLR
CRR
AD Ratio
Structural Liquidity Profile
Wholesale borrowing analysis
Maximum Cumulative Outflow (MCO) analysis
Medium Term Funding Ratio analysis.
Required
Maintained
Required
Maintained
Dec,2014
6%
6.83%
13%
37.34%
Dec,2013
6%
5.70%
13%
38.89%
Page | 29
Consolidated
3,414.20
(TK in Mill)
Page | 30
v.
vi.
vii.
viii.
To mitigate money laundering risk, JBL has assigned CAMLCO in its head office and
BAMLCO in all branches. Besides, for minimization of risks in the banking activities, three
new departments named Foreign Exchange Audit, Compliance External and Foreign
Trade Monitoring have been established in 2013.
Page | 31
Executive Committee
Board of Audit
Committee
Board Risk
Management
Committee
CEO & MD
MANCOM
Head of ICC
Monitoring &
Compliance Division
Figure: MANCOM
IT security policy,
physical security policy,
password policy,
anti-virus policy,
server security policy,
IT assets administration and management policy,
disaster management policy and system audit policy.
Janata Bank Limited has taken steps to automate its business process, data management,
accounts etc. to reflect Real Time On-Line Banking through Straight Processing (STP) and
Temenos-24, a world class banking solution has already been implemented in 42 branches.
Page | 32
Janata Bank has adopted sufficient measures to protect the safety and security of information
and communication platform from unauthorized access, modification, virus, disclosure and
destruction in order to ensure business continuity, data safety and security thereby protecting
customers' interest at large.
Page | 33
iv.
Identifying the source of compliance risk inherent in all existing or new rules,
procedures, internal processes, activities, contracts and court cases.
Maintaining standard process and checklists to identify the strengths and
weaknesses of the compliance risk environment.
Analyzing the risk indicator like statistics or matrices that include the volume
and/or frequency of law violations, frequency of complains, fines and court
expenses, unfavorable court verdicts or number of finalized court cases on a
periodical basis and frequency of actual or suspected fraud or money laundering
activities.
Conducting regular legal reviews on different bank's products and services and
their relevant documentation in order to ensure that all contracts are in conformity
with laws and regulations.
JBL also has a business plan for next three years consistent with capital requirement, business
growth, improvement of credit and CAMELS rating.
Page | 34
Chapter-06
Stress Testing of JBL
Page | 35
Page | 36
Risk Factor
1.
Credit Risk:
Increase in NPLs
Negative shift in the NPLs categories
Fall in the forced sale value of mortgaged
collaterals
Increase of the NPLs in particular 1 or 2
sector
Increase of the NPLs due to default of Top
10 large borrowers
Interest Rate Risk
Exchange Rate Risk
Equity Price Risk (fall in the stock market
index )
Liquidity Risk (excess of banks normal
withdrawal)
2.
3.
4.
5.
Minor
Shock
Moderate
Shock
Major
Shock
1%
50%
10%
2%
80%
20%
3%
100%
40%
5%
7.5%
10%
5%
7.5%
10%
1%
5%
10%
2%
10%
20%
3%
15%
40%
10%
20%
30
Page | 37
Actual
CAR
Minor Shock
Revised
Fall in
CAR
CAR
10.27%
10.30%
Major Shock
Revised
Fall In
CAR
CAR
i. Increase in NPLs
Credit Risk:
2013
2014
Magnitude of shock
Moderate Shock
Revised
Fall in
CAR
CAR
9.58%
9.57%
0.69%
0.72%
8.89%
8.84%
1.39%
1.45%
8.18%
8.10%
2.10%
2.20
10.27%
10.30%
9.57%
9.68%
.70%
0.62%
9.12%
9.27%
1.16%
1.03%
8.81%
9.00%
1.46%
1.30%
10.27%
10.30%
10.11%
10.04%
0.17%
.26%
9.94%
9.78%
0.33%
.52%
9.60%
9.25%
0.67%
1.05%
10.27%
10.30%
8.54%
8.90%
1.74%
1.39%
7.64%
8.19%
2.63%
2.10%
6.73%
7.47%
3.54%
2.83%
10.27%
10.30%
9.61%
9.59%
0.66%
.70%
9.28%
9.24%
0.99%
1.06%
8.95%
8.88%
1.33%
1.42%
0.23%
.20%
9.82%
9.90%
0.45%
0.40%
9.59%
9.70%
0.68%
.60%
0.63%
.40%
9.00%
9.49%
1.27%
0.80%
8.35%
9.09%
1.91%
1.21%
0.24%
0.25%
9.79%
9.80%
0.48%
0.50%
9.31%
9.30%
0.96%
1.00%
10.27%
10.30%
10.05%
10.20%
10.27%
10.30%
9.64%
9.90%
10.27%
10.30%
Liquidity Risk
2013
2014
99.22%
79.58%
10.03%
10.05%
98.88%
70.83%
0.34%
8.75%
According to guidelines (2010) issued by Bangladesh Bank every bank must maintain CAR
at 10%. But from the table it is seen that JBL actual CAR both in year 2013 and 2014 fall
below 10% in every shocks under except Fall in FSV of mortgage collateral, interest rate risk
and equity risk under minor shock. So, when the position of CAR is decreased the banks
moves towards more risky position. So, JBLs management has to take proper steps and
Page | 38
actions to raise its CAR as under BASEL III every bank must maintain CAR at 12.5% by
2019.
Cumulative Impact on CAR:
Year
Actual
CAR
2013
2014
10.27%
10.30%
2013
2014
10.27%
10.30%
Magnitude of shock
Minor Shock
Moderate Shock
Revised
Fall in
Revised
Fall in
CAR
CAR
CAR
CAR
Credit Risk
6.19%
3.81%
3.14%
6.86%
6.49%
3.51%
3.79%
6.21%
Cumulative Impact of All Shocks
5.25%
4.75%
1.39%
8.61%
5.83%
4.17%
2.40%
7.60%
Major Shock
Revised
Fall In
CAR
CAR
0.44 %
0.79%
9.66%
9.21%
-2.82%
-1.45
-12.82%
-11.45%
From this table is can be seen that cumulative impact on CAR under credit shock is very
severe through it is improved in 2014. CAR goes down close to 0% in major shook under
credit shock. The impact on CAR under all shock is also severe CAR goes down to negative
under major shock.
Page | 39
Chapter-07
Financial Stability of JBL
Page | 40
where is the ratio of equity capital plus assets, i.e., ; t is the net income/assets ratio, i.e.
; and t the standard deviation of the net income/assets ratio. A higher z-score indicates a
lower default risk and vice versa. A higher indicates instability of a banks income that
lowers its z-score.
Data
The calculations in this paper were based on and extracted from website of that contains the
financial statements. The sample covers 4 State owned banks (Janata, Sonali, Rupali, Agrani)
in Bangladesh. The total observations are 24 for 4 banks covering the period 2009 to 2014.
Regression Analysis
The dependent variable is z-score that represents banks stability measure across time. The
microeconomic independent variables are cost ratio, loans/total assets, income diversity ratio
and total assts.
Variable Definitions
Below is a brief description of the variables and their calculation is given below:
Z-score: the dependent variable, z=(k+)/, where k is equity capital and reserves as a
percent of total assets, is average net income as a percent of total assets, and is
standard deviation of return on assets (average net income as a present of assets) as an
indicator of return volatility.
Total Assets: total assets of the bank in million Tk.
Loans/Total Assets: loans as a percent of total assets.
Cost Ratio: operating expense as a percent of operating income.
Page | 41
Expected Relation
-
Loan/TA
Income Diversity
TA
Explanation
If expanse greater than income Z score will
decrease.
If loan given is higher than total assets Z
score will decrease
If non-interest income increases banks Z
score will increase.
If Total Assets increases then Z score will
also increase
Z score OLS
SS
df
MS
Model
Residual
264.908834
356.934002
4
19
66.2272086
18.7860001
Total
621.842836
23
27.0366451
zscore
Coef.
oeoi
loanta
incdiv
ta
_cons
-8.489836
-75.29814
8.134535
-6.90e-06
52.91485
Std. Err.
8.735534
25.16815
3.369668
5.85e-06
17.13824
t
-0.97
-2.99
2.41
-1.18
3.09
Number of obs
F( 4,
19)
Prob > F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE
P>|t|
0.343
0.007
0.026
0.252
0.006
=
=
=
=
=
=
24
3.53
0.0259
0.4260
0.3052
4.3343
9.793847
-22.62059
15.18733
5.34e-06
88.7856
that means irrespective of time and number, the combined variation in independent variables
can explain 30% variation of dependent variable. Root MSE (root mean squared error) is the
SD of the regression. The closer to zero better the fit.
All of impacts are significant except of cost ratio & total assets as P value is less than 5% in
Loan to assets ratio and income diversity. Coefficients tell about the percentage change in
dependent variable for 1% change in each independent variable. All aspects of
microeconomic have negative co-efficient with the dependent variable (z-score) except of
income diversity. It is widely known that the more income diversity a bank or corporation has
the more stable it becomes. When income is diversified the associated risk is also diversified
and mitigated. From the table positive relation between Z score and income diversity can be
seen. Through the co-efficient of Total assets and Z score is negative, it is very low. The coefficient of Z score, Cost ratio and loan to asset ratio is also negative so it in indicates
negative impact on banks financial stability.
Number of obs =
F( 4,
19) =
Prob > F
=
R-squared
=
Root MSE
=
zscore
Coef.
oeoi
loanta
incdiv
ta
_cons
-8.489836
-75.29814
8.134535
-6.90e-06
52.91485
Robust
Std. Err.
9.134574
28.23246
2.798998
4.77e-06
18.74603
t
-0.93
-2.67
2.91
-1.45
2.82
P>|t|
0.364
0.015
0.009
0.165
0.011
24
2.94
0.0476
0.4260
4.3343
10.62905
-16.20691
13.99291
3.09e-06
92.15074
Robust is used because here standard error is less than OLS model.
From the table it can be seen that the model is significant as F test value is 4%. From R2, it
can be said that the proportion of the variation in Dependent Variable which is explained by
variation in independent variables by 42%. The impacts of income diversification and Loan
to assets ratio are significant as P value is less than 5%. Co-efficient is similar to OLS model.
Page | 43
R-sq:
within = 0.2644
between = 0.9658
overall = 0.4213
corr(u_i, Xb)
=
=
24
4
6
6.0
6
=
=
1.44
0.2671
Number of obs
Number of groups
F(4,16)
Prob > F
= 0.4262
Std. Err.
P>|t|
zscore
Coef.
ta
oeoi
loanta
incdiv
_cons
-7.31e-06
-10.40777
-72.14034
6.911533
52.04448
.0000201
15.22197
34.44236
5.695058
28.3352
sigma_u
sigma_e
rho
.68212276
4.6971483
.02065347
F(3, 16) =
-0.36
-0.68
-2.09
1.21
1.84
0.06
0.721
0.504
0.052
0.243
0.085
-.00005
-42.67691
-145.1549
-5.16145
-8.02346
.0000353
21.86137
.8742007
18.98452
112.1124
Fixed-effect (FE) is used in analyzing the impact of variables that vary over time. From the
table it can be said that the model is not significant as F test value is greater than 5%. From
R2, it can be said that the proportion of the variation in Dependent Variable which is
explained by variation in independent variables by 26% within group, 97% between group
and 42% overall group. The errors u i are correlated with the regressors in the fixed effects are
42%.
The coefficient is negative for all the independent variable except income diversity with Z
score. From P value it is seen that Loan to assets ratio has significant influence on Z score.
Sigma_u is the standard deviation of the errors within group which is .68. Sigma_e is the
standard deviation of of residuals (overall error term) that is 4.69. rho is known as the
intraclass correlation. Here rho explains .02 of the variance is due to differences across
panels.
Page | 44
Number of obs
Number of groups
=
=
24
4
R-sq:
6
6.0
6
within
= 0.2621
between = 0.9922
overall = 0.4260
corr(u_i, X)
Wald chi2(4)
Prob > chi2
= 0 (assumed)
zscore
Coef.
Std. Err.
ta
oeoi
loanta
incdiv
_cons
-6.90e-06
-8.489836
-75.29814
8.134535
52.91485
5.85e-06
8.735534
25.16815
3.369668
17.13824
sigma_u
sigma_e
rho
0
4.6971483
0
-1.18
-0.97
-2.99
2.41
3.09
P>|z|
0.238
0.331
0.003
0.016
0.002
=
=
14.10
0.0070
4.56e-06
8.631496
-25.96946
14.73896
86.50518
The rationale behind random effects model is that, unlike the fixed effects model, the
variation across entities is assumed to be random and uncorrelated with the predictor or
independent variables included in the model.
From the table it is seen that Probability of chi2 is only .70%, so the model is very significant.
R2 that explains the proportion of the variation in Dependent Variable which is explained by
variation in independent variables by 26% within group, 99% between group and 42% overall
group.
The coefficient is negative for all the independent variable except income diversity with Z
score. Loan to assets ratio & income diversity has significant influence on Z score as P value
is .30% & 1.6% respectively.
Page | 45
5. Z score Hausman Test (statistically which one is better fixed or random model):
. hausman fixed random
Note: the rank of the differenced variance matrix (3) does not equal the number of coefficients being tested (4); be sure
this is what you expect, or there may be problems computing the test. Examine the output of your estimators for
anything unexpected and possibly consider scaling your variables so that the coefficients are on a similar scale.
Coefficients
(b)
(B)
fixed
random
ta
oeoi
loanta
incdiv
-7.31e-06
-10.40777
-72.14034
6.911533
-6.90e-06
-8.489836
-75.29814
8.134535
(b-B)
Difference
sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B))
S.E.
-4.11e-07
-1.917935
3.157793
-1.223002
.0000192
12.46591
23.51256
4.591189
To decide between fixed or random effects, Hausman test is run where the null hypothesis is
that the preferred model is random effects vs. the alternative the fixed. It basically tests
whether the unique errors (ui) are correlated with the regressors, the null hypothesis is they
are not. From the table it can be said that random model is better because Probability of chi
square in hausman test is insignificant, that is, panel data set have least impact of panels
difference ( change of banks) in result.
Page | 46
Chapter-08
Findings & Conclusion
Page | 47
8.1 FINDINGS
Banking in todays environment face a number of challenges, including deciphering and
complying with ongoing regulatory changes, developing and conducting adequate stress
testing methods and justifying or defending changes in their allowance reserves. But bank can
do many things to mitigate risk in those areas. They areI.
Its important to eliminate regulator guesswork and its also important for financial
institutions like JBL to verify that guidelines for analyzing a potential upgrade are clear,
clearly communicated to, and consistently followed.
II.
To assess and quantify banks vulnerabilities, JBL should implement proper Integrating Risk
Appetite, Stress Testing and Capital Planning. For the betterment of the banks performance
JBL should comply with the Risk Management Guidelines for Banks by Bangladesh Bank.
Once the potential downside is understood, JBL can take steps to reduce or mitigate those
risks or can ensure they have sufficient capital to manage those risks.
III.
Set Deadlines.
Risk-rating changes.
Charges-offs.
Updating the core systems to reflect the risk-rating changes.
Determining the loans that need to be reviewed for impairment (FAS 114).
Updating the data on the impairment analyses (appraisal values and selling costs or
cash flows).
Page | 48
8.2 CONCLUSIONS
Banks are in the business of taking risk not to avoid it. Banks cannot function without taking
risk on the one hand, and on the other no organization is immune to risk. Risk management
involves the maintenance of losses and the value of the bank to within accepted margins.
Types of risk, in general, include: market risk, legal risk, operational risk, liquidity risk, credit
risk and etc.
In this report JBL risk structure described thoroughly and also quantitatively measure its risk
and financial stability position. As a State-owned bank JBL should increase its regulatory
capital and put more attention to its credit lending department as its NPL is increasing.
From stress testing analysis, it is seen that in under credit risk banks CAR is fell below 10%
in four out of five shocks in every scenario. CAR fell below 9% under increase in NPL due to
particular sector. Interest rate risk and equity price risk did not affect bank adversely as CAR
does not fall below 9% at major shock.
The widespread practice of measuring financial stability using z-score as an individual
measure of bank soundness has been used to measure JBL financial stability along with three
others state-owned banks Sonali, Rupali and Agrani. Five models are run considering Z-score
as dependent variable with four microeconomic independent variables which are cost ratio,
loans/total assets, income diversity ratio and total assts.
OLS model shows F test is 2% which means model is significant. Here, R2 expressed the
proportion of the variation in Dependent Variable which is explained by variation in
independent variables by 42%. There is a positive relation between Z score and income
diversity which its banks sustainability. Impacts are significant on Z score as P value is less
than 5% in L/TA ratio and income diversity.
Robust model is also significant as F test value is 4%. From R2 explained proportion of the
variation in Dependent Variable is explained by variation in independent variables by 42%.
The impacts of income diversification and Loan to assets ratio are significant as P value is
less than 5%. Co-efficient is similar to OLS model.
Fixed-effects (FE) is not significant as F test value is greater than 5%. From R2, it can be said
that the proportion of the variation in Dependent Variable which is explained by variation in
independent variables by 26% within group, 97% between group and 42% overall group. The
errors u i are correlated with the regressors in the fixed effects are 42%. Loan to assets ratio
has significant influence on Z score as P value is 5%. Here rho explains .02 of the variance
is due to differences across panels.
Probability of chi2 is only .70%, so the Random model is very significant. R2 that explains
the proportion of the variation in Dependent Variable which is explained by variation in
independent variables by 26% within group, 99% between group and 42% overall group. The
coefficient is positive only between income diversity with Z score. Loan to assets ratio &
income diversity has significant influence on Z scoreas P value is .30% & 1.6% respectively.
Page | 49
To decide between fixed or random effects, Hausman test is run where the null hypothesis is
that the preferred model is random effects vs. the alternative the fixed. From Hausman test it
can be said that random model is better because Probability of chi square in hausman test is
insignificant, that is, panel data set have least impact of panels difference in result.
As an organization Janata Bank Limited has earned the reputation of top banking operation in
Bangladesh. The organization is much more structured compared to any other public
commercial bank in Bangladesh. It is relentless in pursuit of business innovation and
improvement. It has a reputation as a partner of consumer growth. So to compete with this
competitive business of banking industry JBL has to improve its policy to improve its capital
structure and credit lending policy.
Page | 50
Part-B
Internship Report on
Janata Bank Ltd.
Page | 51
Chapter-01
Company Profile
Page | 52
1.2 VISION
To become the effective largest commercial bank in Bangladesh to support socio-economic
development of the country and to be a leading bank in South Asia.
Page | 53
1.3 MISSION
Janata Bank Limited will be an effective commercial bank by maintaining a stable growth
strategy, delivering high quality financial products, providing excellent customer service
through an experienced management team and ensuring good corporate governance in every
step of banking network.
Professionalism
Growth
Dignity
Commitment
Diversity
Core values
Quality
Accountability
Integrity
Transperancy
Page | 54
Page | 56
Remittance Department
I have work in remittance department. Remittance department are divided in two sections:
Inland and Foreign. In foreign remittance department I worked under MD. Mostak Ahmed
(Executive officer). He shows me how foreign remittance is transferred in Bangladesh from
abroad through Ria, Money Gram etc. In inland remittance desk, I work under MD. Mostafiz.
As an intern in JBL (Nawabganj Branch), Dhaka I have truly enjoyed my internship from
the learning and experience viewpoint. I was confident during my internship program during
the course of my practical orientation I have tried to learn the practical banking to realize my
theoretical knowledge, what I have gathered and going to acquire from various courses. It is
great pleasure for me to have practical exposure of JBL, because without practical exposure it
couldn't be possible for me to compare the theory with practice.
Page | 57
BIBLIOGRAPHY
WEBSITES:
www.bangladesh-bank.org
www.jbl.ac.bd
http://ssrn.com/abstract=913211
http://ssrn.com/abstract=2276277
www.ea-journals.org
www.opf.slu.cz/kfi/icfb/proc2011/pdf/52_Stan.pdf
OTHERS:
Annual Report of Janata, Sonali, Rupali & Agrani Banks (2009-2014)
OCC Releases Guidelines for Heightened Expectations for Bank Risk Governance,
Simpson Thacher, September 8, 2014
Risk Based Capital Adequacy for Banks (Basel II) (December 2010)
Risk Management guidelines for Banks By Department of Off-site Supervision,
Bangladesh Bank, February 2012.
Assessment of Financial Distress Conditions of Commercial Banks in Ethiopia
Page | 58