Poland calls the bear's bluff!

By Jeremy Wysakowski-Walters BSc, MA

The deployment of a battery of US

Patriot missiles to Poland in May
2010 is the fulfillment of
agreements reached under the
US/Polish Declaration on Strategic
Cooperation signed in August 2008.
This was always from the beginning a symbolic act, as one battery is incapable of defending Polish
airspace; a fact acknowledged by Defence Minister Bogdan Klich's announcement that the Polish
government has started initial supplier selection for the procurement of 10-12 Polish owned batteries
costing around $1 billion each.

However, the deployment brings US/Polish relations to a new level.

A fact not missed by Russia who in Sep 2009 rattled its sabre in
Operation West: a large scale exercise with Belarus centred around
mock landings on a Polish beach and deployment of nuclear
missiles.
While nuclear war may be far from any future reality, Poland treads
a dangerous tight rope in its relations with the USA and Russia. The
Smolensk air crash which killed the Polish president and many top
figures in the country provided a thaw in Polish-Russian relations
and many have seen it as a departure point for a new era.

However, Poland's continued commitment to plans drawn up with America under the Bush
administration may yet prove a sticking point.

While others in central/eastern Europe have trodden more carefully since the region's break with
Moscow, Poland built upon its 1999 accession to NATO by staunchly supporting the USA in various
cases, from the 2003 Iraq War to the proposed missile defence shield. This, coupled with Poland's
vocal support of Georgia in the 2008 Russia-Georgia War has greatly irritated Poland's large eastern
neighbour. While not suffering physical attack, Poland has suffered economically with Russia placing a
ban on meat imports from Poland; officially for health reasons, although the EU did not feel such a
need.

Poland's wish to place itself firmly in the 'western' camp following the end of the Cold War has
undoubtedly been achieved, yet Poland continues to pursue policies which further distance itself
from Russia. This strategy goes against the geopolitical reality that Poland is faced with, and risks
endangering Poland. Although, conflict is not a likely outcome, Poland's economic interests are
conceivably at threat.
Resource security is paramount in the 21st Century for all countries and
Poland receives the majority of its gas (approx 65%) comes form Russia
and other ex-Soviet countries. As Ukraine found out, Russia can easily
turn the tap off.

It is paramount therefore that as we approach the end of the first decade of the 21st Century, Poland
establishes a positive relationship with Russia; one that can foster both economic and military
security. This does not mean that Poland must negate its democratic ideals and relinquish its support
of countries like Georgia, merely that Poland must find its own middle way: a road that ensures
peace and prosperity for Poland and the greater region it resides in.