If the U.S. and China have reached some agreement over the South China Sea it is
more likely to focus on a modus operandi for U.S. naval forces operating in China’s
exclusive economic zone. It is highly unlikely that they reached any agreement on
sovereignty issues. Indeed, Chinese military officials in March have elevated the
importance of the South China Sea be declaring it a ‘core interest’. This implies that
China will use force to protect its interest.
The United States will never step back from asserting its right to freedom of
navigation in what it calls international waters (the high seas). The U.S. will also not
back down if China threatens the security of sea lines of communication.
It will be instructive to look at the outcome of the U.S.‐China strategic dialogue now
taking place in Beijing. This meeting, however, is likely to be dominated by the North
Korean issue that is how to react to the sinking of a South Korean warship, and
global financial issues. A key point is whether high‐level military to military talks will
resume and address how to avoid conflict in the South China Sea between their
naval forces. China’s recent intervention with People’s Liberation Army Navy
warships in March and their docking at Fiery Cross Reef are a cause of concern for
the United States.