IBM Predictive Data Models AND FORECASTING

A
Project Report
Submitted in partial fulfillment of the
Requirements for the award of the degree of

BACHELOR OF TECHNOLOGY
In
COMPUTER SCIENCE & ENGINEERING
By

Name
Abhishek Shukla
Anjali Yadav
Anuj Awasthi
Anurag Kanwar

Roll No.
R970213004
R970213011
R970213012
R970213013

Under the guidance of

Dr. KINGSHUK SRIVASTAVA

Department of Computer Science & Engineering

Centre for Information Technology
University of Petroleum & Energy Studies
Bidholi, Via Prem Nagar, Dehradun, UK
DECEMBER 2016

CANDIDATES DECLARATION

I hereby certify that the project work entitled IBM PREDICTIVE PRODUCTION DATA MODELS AND
FORECASTING in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the Degree of BACHELOR OF
TECHNOLOGY in COMPUTER SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING with specialization in oil and gas informatics
and submitted to the Department of Computer Science & Engineering at Center for Information
Technology, University of Petroleum & Energy Studies, Dehradun, is an authentic record of my/ our work
carried out during a period from MAY, 2016 to JULY, 2016 under the supervision of Dr.Kingshuk
Srivastava, Assistant Professor UPES.
The matter presented in this project has been submitted by me/ us for the award of any other degree of
this or any other University.
Name

Abhishek Shukla

Anjali Yadav

Anuj Awasthi

Anurag Kanwar

Roll No.

R970213004

R970213011

R970213012

R970213013

This is to certify that the above statement made by the candidate is correct to the best of my
knowledge.
Date: 6th August, 2016
Dr. M. Venkatadri
Program Head - CSE- Oil and Gas Informatics
Center for Information Technology
University of Petroleum & Energy Studies
Dehradun 248007 (Uttarakhand)

Dr. Kingshuk Srivastava

(Mentor)

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
We wish to express our deep gratitude to our mentor Mr. Mohammad Siddique and comentor Dr. Kingshuk Srivastava, for all advice, encouragement and constant support he has
given us throughout our project work. This work would not have been possible without his
support and valuable suggestions.
We sincerely thank to our respected Program Head of the Department, Dr. M. Venkatadri,
for his great support in doing our project.
We are also grateful to Dr. Manish Prateek, Associate Dean and Dr. Shrihari, Dean CoES,
UPES for giving us the necessary facilities to carry out our project work successfully.
We would like to thank all our friends for their help and constructive criticism during our
project work. Finally we have no words to express our sincere gratitude to our parents who
have shown us this world and for every support they have given us.

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Abstract
1. Introduction
1.1. Reservoir Prediction Techniques
2. Objective
3. Literature Review
3.1. Volumetric Method
3.2. Material Balance Equation
3.2.1. Applications of Material Balance
3.2.2. Limitations of Material Balance
3.3. Decline Curve Analysis
3.3.1. Exponential Decline
3.3.2. Hyperbolic Decline
3.3.3. Harmonic Decline
3.3.4. Advantages and Decline Curve Analysis
3.4. Reservoir Simulation
3.4.1. Mathematical Model
3.4.2. Numerical Model
3.4.3. Computer Model
4. Materials and Methodology
4.1. Case Study
5. Results and Discussion
6. Conclusions
7. References

7
8
8
9
10
10
13
16
16
17
18
19
20
20
21
22
23
25
27
34
35
36

List of Figures
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

Figure 1 :- Tank Model

Figure 2:- Decline Curve Graph
Figure 3: - Graphical Representation of Taylor Series Expansion
Figure 4: - Excel Sheet showing Decline Curve Analysis
Figure 5: - Data Sheet as obtained from MBAL PETEX
Figure 6: - Graph showing Cumulative Production vs. Time (obtained from
MBAL PETEX)

List of Tables

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Table 1:- Exponential Decline Rate Formulae

Table 2:- Hyperbolic Decline Rate Formulae
Table 3: - Harmonic Decline Rate Formulae
Table 4: - Petro-physical Properties of the Field
Table 5: - Results obtained from Various Reserve Estimation Techniques

Abstract

Energy is fundamental to all parts of society. The enormous growth and

development of society in the last two-hundred years has been driven by rapid
increase in the extraction of fossil fuels. In the foresee-able future, the majority of
energy will still come from fossil fuels. Consequently, reliable methods for
forecasting their production, especially crude oil, are crucial.
Forecasting crude oil production can be done in many different ways, but in order
to provide realistic outlooks, one must be mindful of the physical laws that affect
extraction of hydrocarbons from a reservoir. Decline curve analysis is a long
established tool for developing future outlooks for oil production from an
individual well or an entire oilfield.
Consequently, depletion analysis is a useful tool for analysis and forecasting crude
oil production. Based on comprehensive databases with reserve and production
data for hundreds of oil fields, it has been possible to identify typical behaviors
and properties. Reliable and reasonable forecasts are essential for planning and
necessary in order to understand likely future world oil production.
Keywords: Oilfields, Forecasting, Energy, Decline Curve.

1. INTRODUCTION
Reservoir Prediction techniques: Methods of forecasting reservoir can be divided into three categories: analogical
methods, experimental methods and mathematical methods. Analogical methods
use properties of mature reservoirs that are either geographically or
petrophysically similar to the target reservoir to attempt to predict reservoir
performance of the target zone. Experimental methods measure physical
properties (such as rates, pressures, or saturations) in laboratory models and
scale these results to the entire hydrocarbon accumulation. Mathematical
methods on the other hand use equations to predict reservoir performance.
Following techniques have been worked upon in our project:
Volumetric Method
Material Balance Equation
Decline Curve Analysis
Reservoir Simulation

2. Objective
The objective of this research project is to investigate fundamental properties and
behavior of crude oil production and examine some model approaches for
creating realistic outlooks for the future.
It also deals with the comparative study of the different techniques
used in the market for forecasting the well.

3. Literature Review
3.1 Volumetric Method
Knowing the volume of hydrocarbons in place in a reservoir is of fundamental
importance. Any development project on a field obviously depends on the oil
and/or gas in place in the reservoir rock.
The assessment of the accumulations in initial stages is difficult because of the
complexity of the porous medium, uncertainty as to the exact shape of the
reservoir and, little petrophysical data. Therefore, difficulty resides in calculating
all the parameters which characterize the volume of hydrocarbons in place.
Volumetric method states that we can determine the volume in reservoir
conditions using following mathematical operation:

Volume (reservoir conditions) =

Vol. of impregnated rock Vr x

x Porosity x saturation with hydrocarbons

--------------(1)

Volumetric method is the most used technique which is almost always used and
plays the pivotal role in early stages of a field, after incorporating various factors,
the final equation for Original oil in place becomes:

N= [7758 Ah(1-Sw)]/Boi ---------------(2)

A: Field area, acres
h: Average oil zone thickness, feet
: Porosity
Sw: Water saturation as a fraction of pore space
Boi: Oil formation volume factor at initial conditions

Also, the oil produced by various primary mechanism drives can also be calculated
using volumetric method because the oil recovered will be equal to oil originally
in place, minus the oil remaining in the reservoir abandonment. Although these
calculations are primitive and may not be highly accurate but they play an
important role as the future data generated has a reference point, on which more
accurate predictions can be made.

Oil recovered by primary producing means in a solution gas drive is given by:

Np = 7758Ah

)---------------(3)

Boab: Oil formation volume factor at

field abandonment pressure (bbl/Stb)
Soab: Oil saturation at abandonment pressure
Other parameters have already been defined

Note that the pressure at which the reservoir will be abandoned will depend on
economic factors, the value of oil, the operating costs, and the oil producing rate.

In those reservoirs where oil recovery is affected by water encroachment, the

factor influencing oil recovery is efficiency of the replacement which occurs.
Factors influencing this displacement are displacing-displaced fluid mobility ratio,
the reservoir dip throughput rates and the heterogeneity of the reservoir rock.
The recovery under water drive can be determined by following modification of
volumetric equation:

Np=7758 Ah[

] ------------(4)

Sor= Oil remaining in the reservoir after

water flooding, fraction of pore space
Other parameters have been defined earlier

So far we have discussed equations concerning oil only, the same can be
extended for gas after making some changes in the basic equations, out of which
the primary one is the change in mathematical factor, it changes from 7758 for oil
to 43560 for gases. This leads to the following volumetric equation for gases:

G=43,560 Ah [

] --------(5)

G: Original Gas in place, mmscf

A: Area, acres
H: pay zone thickness, feet
: Porosity
Sw: Water saturation
Bgi: Intial gas formation volume factor, ft3/scf
Therefore, using basic volumetric equation various other equations can be
derived based on specific requirements.

3.2) Material Balance Equation

Material balance equates the volume of fluids contained in a reservoir and the
volume of the pores of the reservoir at any time. The behavior of a reservoir can
only be known from observations made in the wells, essentially flow rate,
pressure measurements and fluid analyses.
These observations, interpreted according to a number of guidelines in the
material balance, provide the data used to analyze and predict the behavior of
the reservoirs for which the available information is still limited (one or a few
wells).

It is observed that a material balance basically represents only the equation of

continuity for overall reservoir for a finite time interval. It is the simplest reservoir
simulation model and represents reservoir as single cell. A material balance
always has two possible uses:
a) Production forecasts {Np, Gp, Wp}, Variation in pressure, GOR-WOR
b) Calculation of volumes in place {N, G, W}, production already having begun
These values are compared with those obtained previously by volumetric method.
For easy understanding, the Material Balance can be compared to the
Conservation of Mass such that:Change in volume of gas phase + Change in volume of water phase + Change in
volume of oil phase + Change in volume of solid phase = 0
Before deriving the material balance, it is convenient to denote certain
terms by symbols for brevity. The symbols used conform where possible to
the standard nomenclature adopted by the Society of Petroleum Engineers.
pi Initial reservoir pressure, psi
p Volumetric average reservoir pressure
p Change in reservoir pressure = pi p, psi
pb Bubble point pressure, psi
N Initial (original) oil in place, STB

Np Cumulative oil produced, STB

Gp Cumulative gas produced, scf
Wp Cumulative water produced, bbl
Rp Cumulative gas-oil ratio, scf/STB
GOR Instantaneous gas-oil ratio, scf/STB
Rsi Initial gas solubility, scf/STB
Rs Gas solubility, scf/STB
Boi Initial oil formation volume factor, bbl/STB
Bo Oil formation volume factor, bbl/STB
Bgi Initial gas formation volume factor, bbl/scf
Bg Gas formation volume factor, bbl/scf
Winj Cumulative water injected, STB
Ginj Cumulative gas injected, scf
We Cumulative water influx, bbl
m Ratio of initial gas-cap-gas reservoir volume to initial reservoir oil volume,
bbl/bbl
G Initial gas-cap gas, scf
P.V. Pore volume, bbl
cW Water compressibility, psi-1
cf Formation (rock) compressibility, psi-1
The Material Balance considers the reservoir as a Tank Model (Zero-Dimension)
which follows the Law of Conservation of Mass such that the reservoir is at
isothermal conditions with a constant average pressure throughout the reservoir.

Figure 1 : Tank Model Concept

From the Tank Model, we can comprehend that: Pore Volume occupied by the gas at initial pressure, pi
+
Pore Volume occupied by the oil at initial pressure, pi
=
Pore Volume occupied by the remaining oil at pressure, p
+
Pore volume occupied by the gas in the gas cap at p
+
Pore volume occupied by the evolved solution gas at p
+
Pore volume occupied by the net water influx at p
+
Change in pore volume due to connate water expansion and pore
volume reduction due to rock expansion
+
Pore volume occupied by the injected gas at p
+
Pore volume occupied by the injected water at p

From these Nine Equations and assuming that no Gas Cap is formed we can
develop a general formula: -

The general form of the equation can be described as net withdrawal (withdraw injection) = expansion of the hydrocarbon fluids in the system + cumulative water
influx.

3.2.1 Applications of Material Balance

Material balance is an important concept in reservoir engineering since it is a
performance-based tool used to establish the original volume of hydrocarbons-inplace in a reservoir that typically contains many wells. Additionally, the process of
matching pressure-based depletion trends between wells gives the reservoir
engineer the ability to create a performance-based view of the connected pore
volume in the reservoir. Consequently, it is important that:
1. All fluids taken from or injected into the reservoir can be measured accurately.
2. Pressure, volume, and temperature characteristics (PVT properties) be
measured and validated. Subsurface samples from several properly conditioned
wells are preferred.
3. At least one static pressure from each well prior to production and several after
production has commenced are required to achieve good results.
The establishment of original-in-place fluid volumes and connected pore volume
are critical to the development of ongoing depletion plans, especially where
secondary or tertiary recovery methods are being considered.

3.2.2 Limitations of Material Balance

As no method can be considered perfect, the MBE method has its limitations that
are as follows:
MBE cannot be used to calculate fluid or pressure distributions, nor can it
be used to identify new well locations or the effect of well locations
MBE is not rate sensitive, as it has no time reference. Thus, effect of
production rates on recovery or water influx cannot be identified.
The MBE cannot be used to predict water or gas channeling. It cannot
account for the effect of heterogeneities on the behavior of the reservoir.
When any of these factors is significant, reservoir simulation is required to predict
precisely the behavior of the reservoir. The material balance method may prove
to be inadequate in studying a reservoir during fluid reinjection late the life cycle.

3.3 Decline Curve Analysis

A decline curve of a well is simply a plot of the wells production rate on the yaxis versus time on the x-axis. The plot is usually done on a semi-log paper; i.e. the
y-axis is logarithmic and the x-axis is linear. When the data plots as a straight line,
it is modeled with a constant percentage decline exponential decline. When
the data plots concave upward, it is modeled with a hyperbolic decline. A
special case of the hyperbolic decline is known as harmonic decline.
The most common decline curve relationship is the constant percentage decline
(exponential). With more and more low productivity wells coming on stream,
there is currently a swing toward decline rates proportional to production rates
(hyperbolic and harmonic). Although some wells exhibit these trends, hyperbolic
or harmonic decline extrapolations should only be used for these specific cases.
Over- exuberance in the use of hyperbolic or harmonic relationships can result in
excessive reserves estimates.

Figure 2: Decline Curve, Oil well

3.3.1 Exponential Decline: As mentioned above, in the exponential decline, the wells production data plots
as a straight line on a semi-log paper. The equation of the straight line on the
semi-log paper is given by:
q=qie

Dt

Where:
q = wells production rate at time t, STB/day
qi = wells production rate at time 0, STB/day
D = nominal exponential decline rate, 1/day
t = time, day

The following table summarizes the various equations used in exponential

decline: Exponential Decline b=0
Description

Equation

Rate

q=qie-Dt

Cumulative oil production

Np=(qi q)/D

Nominal decline rate

D=-ln(1-De)
De=(qi-q)/qi

Effective Decline rate

De=1-e-D

Life

t={ln(qi/q)}/D

Table 1

3.3.2 Hyperbolic Decline: Alternatively, if the wells production data plotted on a semi-log paper concaves
upward, and then it is modeled with a hyperbolic decline. The equation of the
hyperbolic decline is given by:
1/b

q= qi (1 + bDit )
Where:
q = wells production rate at time t, STB/day
qi = wells production rate at time 0, STB/day
Di = initial nominal exponential decline rate (t = 0), 1/day
b = hyperbolic exponent
t = time, day
The following table summarizes the equations used in hyperbolic decline:
Hyperbolic Decline b>0, b1
Description

Equation
1/b

Rate

q= qi (1 + bDit )

Cumulative oil production

Np=qib/Di(1-b) x (qi1-b-q1-b)

Nominal Decline rate

Dei=(qi-q)/qi

Effective decline rate

De=1-e-D

Life

t={(qi/q)b-1}/bDi

Table 2

3.3.3 Harmonic Decline: A special case of the hyperbolic decline is known as harmonic decline, where b
is taken to be equal to 1.
The following table summarizes the equations used in harmonic decline:
Harmonic Decline b=1
Description

Equation

Rate

q=qi/(1+bDit)

Cumulative oil production

Np=qi/Di x ln(qi/q)

Nominal Decline rate

Di=Dei/(1-Dei)

Effective decline rate

Dei=(qi-q)/qi

Life

t={(qi/q)-1}/Di
Table 3

3.3.4 Advantages of Decline Curve Analysis

Decline curves are the most common means of forecasting production. They have
many advantages:

Data is easy to obtain

They are easy to plot
They yield results on a time basis
They are easy to analyze

3.4 Reservoir Simulation

Simulation means assuming the appearance of something without the reality.

Reservoir simulation refers to construction and operation of a model whose
behavior assumes the appearance of actual reservoir behavior.
A model itself is either physical or mathematical. A mathematical model is a set
of equations that, subject to certain assumptions, describes the physical
processes active in the reservoir. Although the model itself obviously lacks the
reality of the reservoir, the behavior of a valid model simulates the actual
reservoir. The purpose of simulation is estimation of field performance (e.g., oil
recovery) under one or more producing schemes. Whereas the field can be
produced only once, at considerable expense, a model can be produced or run
many times at low expense over a short period of time. Observation of model
results that represent different producing conditions aids selection of an optimal
set of producing conditions for the reservoir.
A computer model can answer questions of following type:
How should a field be developed and produced?
What is the best EOR scheme for reservoir?
Why is reservoir not behaving according to predictions made by previous
simulation studies?
What is ultimate economic recovery of the field?
From what portion of the reservoir the production is coming?
To obtain a computer model, we first need to have a physical model which
contains the geological description of reservoir, then mathematical equations
have to be framed which represent the dynamic nature of reservoir and can
quantify many properties such as pressure, saturation, etc. To solve mathematical
model by analytical methods is very hard, thats why equations are linearized and
a numerical model is formed, which is comparatively easier to solve. Finally, we
get computer model by writing programs which can solve the equations of
numerical model.

3.4.1 Mathematical Model

This step involves writing down the system of partial differential equations and
auxiliary relations. It can portray only the phenomena that have been included in
the formulation of differential equations which are formulated by using
conservation of mass, energy and Darcys law. Therefore, this step requires the
knowledge of the physical processes taking place in the reservoir and their
relative importance.
This knowledge is often incomplete for a particular reservoir, however most
reservoir processes can be described by one of the several basic types of models
such as the black oil. The choice of mathematical model then determines the class
of problems which can be simulated, using a program based on that particular
model. Models have been classified in several ways:
(a) PVT treatment
Black oil
Compositional
Single Phase
(b) Treatment of flow in porous media
Conventional-darcys law
Fractured porous media model
(c) Mass and heat transfer
Immiscible flow
Miscible flow
Isothermal models
Thermal models
(d) Geometry
One-dimensional models
Two-dimensional models
Three-dimensional models

(e) Co-ordinate system

Cartesian
Cylindrical
Spherical
General Curvilinear
(f) Treatment of surface facilities
Reservoir model only
Reservoir+ wellbore flow
Reservoir + wellbore + surface pipeline network and equipment
The classifications main purpose is to show the variety of models in existence.

3.4.2 Numerical Model

System of nonlinear partial differential equations which constitute the
mathematical model describe realistic multiphase, multidimensional flow in a
reservoir. As these equations cannot be solved analytically, they must be solved
with numerical methods.

Finite Difference
One way to solve a Partial differential equation is to convert the PDE to finitedifference form. The finite-difference form is obtained by replacing the
derivatives in the PDE with differences that are obtained from Taylors series.
To illustrate the procedure, let us suppose that we know the function f(x) at two
discrete points x = xi and x = xi + x, where x is an increment along the x-axis.
We can approximate the derivative df(x)/dx at x = xi by solving the Taylors series,

.........(3)
for df(x)/dx.

The result is

....................(4)
where ET is the term

....................(5)
If we neglect ET, we obtain the finite-difference approximation of the first
derivative.

....................(6)
Eq. 6 is an approximation because we are neglecting all of the terms in ET, which is
called the truncation error. In the limit as the increment x approaches zero, the
truncation error approaches zero, and the finite difference approaches the
definition of the derivative.

Figure 3: Discrete points in the Taylor series expansion.

The finite difference in Eq. 6 is called a forward difference. Other differences are
possible. Two that we use next are the backward difference,

....................(7)

and the centered difference,

....................(8)
Eqs. 6 through 8 are all derived from Taylors series.

Another technique to form a numerical model is by using Matrices and linear

Algebra, It is easier to work with many fluid flow equations when they are
expressed in terms of matrices.
3.4.3 Computer model
The computer models are tools of reservoir simulation alongwith the intuition and
judgment of the engineer to complex mathematical models requiring use of
digital computers. The question is not whether to simulate, but rather which tool
or method to use.
Along the years, companies like Schlumberger, IMEX such as Eclipse, Petrel, CMG,
MBAL and others have made many simulators.
Models have been referred to by type, such as

Black-oil
Used for basic fluid flow, it treats oil and gas as single component

Compositional
It treats oil and gas as different components, but it computationally expensive

Thermal
It is used for hot water, steam flooding, and insitu combustion

Chemical
Used for modeling operations such as polymer injection

Miscible
It can model solvent injection and similar operations

Single-porosity or dual-porosity
Used for different porosity type reservoirs, such as single porosity system and
fractured reservoir

and more.

As per the requirements and objectives, the simulator is chosen and then
different options are simulated, and the best technique is chosen for the
operation.

5. Materials and Methodology

For the implementation of project, we will take up a case study and apply various
prediction techniques including volumetric method, material balance equation,
decline curve analysis and Mbal PETEX software.
Case Study
ONGC has discovered a new field in the state of Maharashtra, in initial exploration
after drilling the wildcat well, following data has been obtained:

Bulk oil volume: 100,000 acre-ft

Porosity: 12.5%
Initial water saturation: 47%
Initial Oil formation volume factor: 1.35

It is desired to estimate Initial oil in place in order to determine whether this field
should be developed and if it will be economically feasible to produce this field.
To calculate this, we use volumetric method to estimate ioip using porosity, initial
water saturation and initial oil formation volume factor.

Initial oil in place, N=7758x Bulk volume x x (1-Swi)/Boi

=7758x 100000x 0.125 x (0.53)/1.35
=38.07 MMSTB

As the asset seems economically lucrative, ONGC goes ahead to develop the field
and drills a number of wells across the field. 6 years down the line, more amount
of data has been gathered which is more accurate, to revise the production
objectives reservoir engineers decide to recalculate initial oil in place using
material balance equation. Following is the data which is present at hand.

Petrophysical Properties

Initial reservoir condition

Current reservoir
condition

P, psi

3000

2500

Bo, bbl/STB

1.35

1.33

Rs, scf/STB

600

500

Np, MMSTB

7170

361

Gp, MMMSCF

5.5

Bw, bbl/STB

1.00

We, MMbbl

Wp, MMbbl

0.2

Bg, bbl/scf

0.0011

0.0015

q, STB/d

Cw, Cf

Table 4
Additional information:
Volume of Bulk oil zone: 100,000 ac-ft
Volume of bulk gas zone: 20,000 ac-ft

To calculate initial oil in place, we require m which is ratio intial gas cap volume
to intial oil volume bbl/bbl. As, the porosity and water saturation for both are
equal, m will be given as:
m = Volume of bulk gas zone/ Volume of bulk oil zone
= 20,000/100,000
=0.2

Cumulative gas oil ratio is also required for the calculations, which is given as the
ratio of gas produced and oil produced in duration of 6 years.
Rp= 5.5 x 109 / 5 x 106
=1100 scf/STB

Now initial oil in place:

Therefore, using material balance equation, initial oil in place is found to be 31.14
MMSTB which is 6.93 MMSTB (18.2%) less than that calculated using volumetric
method.
Since the production is decreasing, therefore it is necessary to have an idea of
future performance of field so that suitable measures can be planned and taken
accordingly.
To do that, Decline Curve Analysis is being employed which will tell the
production rate for last five years as well as predict that of the future.

Figure 4: Cumulative Production

The above excel sheet and graph show that the field is behaving in an exponential
decline manner, with a graph plotted in Cartesian coordinates.
Now, using this, future flow rates can be forecasted which can tell us the time
until when field will be economical unless required measures are taken, Also
Recovery can be calculated using the cumulative production at that time in
future.

As we extrapolate the data, we see a steady decline in flow rate per day which
becomes uneconomical at certain point in time and estimating uptil 13.5 years,
the daily flow rate comes down to as low as 9STB/d and in these 7.5 years the
production has increased from 5004938 to 5265485 STB which is only 5.20%.
This cumulative production is very low and gives a recovery factor of 16.9%, that
too some of it uneconomically.
So, depending upon the operating expenses, the drive mechanism of reservoir
and various other characteristics of reservoir, suitable steps such as enhanced oil
recovery, usage of artificial lifts and other methods must be adopted when age of
field has reached around 7 years.
To obtain better understanding of future predictions, team decides to take help of
Mbal PETEX software to predict cumulative production in future.

Figure 5 : Using PETEX Software

The above sheet is obtained after inputting the field data and following is the plot
formed by making a graph which shows cumulative oil production with time.

Figure 6 : Production Prediction Result

As it can be seen from the above plot, it shows that the cumulative production
will be 5.790951 MMSTB after 6 years from the current scenario.
Now, the same timeline cumulative production results obtained from Decline
curve are a little different i.e. 5.265485 MMSTB.

As decline curve analysis provides a more realistic figure, it is taken as more

accurate one, thus there is a difference of 0.525466 MMSTB, which is 9.97%.

6. Results and Discussions

Technique

Results

Volumetric Method

Initial oil in Place=38.07MMSTB

Material Balance

Initial Oil in Place= 31.14 MMSTB

Decline Curve Analysis

Oil flow rate after 6 years= 18.4STB/d

Cumulative Production after 6
years=5.265485MMSTB

Mbal PETEX

Cumulative Production after 6

years=5.790951MMSTB
Table 5

We can see a difference in Initial oil in place value calculated by using

volumetric method and by using material balance equation. This is so
because Volumetric method uses very primitive and less data to estimate
reserves while Material balance equation is applied only when enough data
has been extracted from the field.

Cumulative production calculated from Decline curve analysis is more

accurate because it takes flow rate into consideration which is a very
important factor for total recovery from a field.

7. Conclusions And Comparison of the Methods

1. Even though Volumetric method is not highly accurate but it is necessary
for every field as only it can be used by using the amount of data obtained
from drilling initial wildcat wells. It is necessary to estimate economic
feasibility of the field. So this method should be used only in initial phases
of any well production.
2. After the development phase of field has started, data obtained from
more wells has to be used to estimate reserves using material balance
equation which will give a more accurate result in comparison to other
methods mentioned in this report.
3. Decline curve takes into consideration flow rate and time reference
which will affect ultimate recovery of the field. Therefore, the results
obtained from this are more accurate and can be used to alter flow rate in
future calculations to determine optimum flow rate for high recovery.
4. In this field there is an urgent need for employing and planning EOR
processes as considering the best calculations at hand, ultimate recovery
will be only 16.9% which is very low and much more oil can be produced
from this field if correct techniques are employed in future.

8. References

1. Mbal handbook.
2. Petroobject.com.
3. Permian Basin Oil and Gas Recovery Conference, Midland, Texas, 16-18
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