ProbabilityofanEvent

LawsofProbability

ProbabilityofanEvent

Conditional Probability

Probability a numerical measure of the likelihood

that a specific event will occur
Impossible event an event that cannot occur; it has
zero probability
Example The event of getting an 8 upon tossing a die
Sure event an event that is certain to occur
Example The event of picking a vowel from the set V =
{a, e, i, o, u}

*PropertyofSTI

J0018

1 _________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
ProbabilityofanEvent

*PropertyofSTI

J0018

2__________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
ProbabilityofanEvent

Basic Probability Rules

Example 1 A coin is tossed twice. What is the

probability that at least 1 head occurs?

1. The probability of an event is within the range 0 to 1.

0 P(A) 1

Example 2 A die is loaded in such a way that an even

number is twice as likely to occur as an odd number.
If E is the event that a number less than 4 occurs on
a single toss of the die, find P(E).

2. The sum of the probabilities of all simple events for

an experiment is always 1
n

P(S) P(Ai ) P(A1 ) P(A2 ) P(An ) 1

i 1

3. If an event cannot occur, its probability is 0

4. If an event is certain, its probability is 1
http://www.glennbeck.com/publish/uplo
ads/2011/11/coin_toss 7725441.jpg

*PropertyofSTI

J0018

3 _________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________

*PropertyofSTI

J0018

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/co mmons/6/6d/Sixsid ed_ Dic e_ inJapan. jpg

4__________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________

ProbabilityofanEvent

ProbabilityofanEvent
Empirical or Relative Frequency Probability uses
frequency distribution based on observations to
determine numerical probabilities of events.
f
P(A)
n

Classical Probability assumes that all outcomes in the

sample space are equally likely to occur

P(A)

numberofoutcomesinA
numberofoutcomesinS

where f =frequencyofanevent
n =totalfrequenciesofthedistribution

where A =event
S=samplespace

Example In a sample of 50 college students, 18 are

freshmen, 23 are sophomores, 2 are juniors, and 7 are
seniors. Set up a frequency distribution and fin the
probability that a student picked at random is (a) a
freshman, and (b) a student that is not a senior.

Example If a card is drawn from an ordinary deck, find

the probability that it is a heart.

*PropertyofSTI

J0018

5 _________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
ProbabilityofanEvent

*PropertyofSTI

6__________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________

Corollary 1 If A and B are mutually exclusive, then

If A and B are any two events, then

P(A B)=P(A)+P(B)

P(A B)=P(A)+P(B) P(A B)

Example 1 The probability that a

student passes mathematics is 23 ,
and the probability that he passes
4
English is 9 . If the probability of
4
passing at least one course is 5 ,
what is the probability that he will
pass both courses?

Example Asingle
cardisdrawnfrom
anordinarydeckof
cards.Findthe
probabilitythatitis
aqueenora
diamond.

J0018

ProbabilityofanEvent

Additive Rules

*PropertyofSTI

J0018

7 _________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________

*PropertyofSTI

J0018

8__________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________

ProbabilityofanEvent

ProbabilityofanEvent

Complementary Events

Example 1 In a sample of 50 college students, 18 are

freshmen, 23 are sophomores, 2 are juniors, and 7 are
seniors. Set up a frequency distribution and find the
probability that a student picked at random is a student
that is not a senior.

The complement of an event A is the set of outcomes in

the sample space that are not included in the outcome
of event A. The complement of A is denoted by A (read
as A prime)

Example 2 A coin is tossed 6 times in succession. What

is the probability that at least 1 head occurs?

Rules for Complementary Events

1. P(A)=1 P(A)
2. P(A)=1 P(A)

*PropertyofSTI

3.P(A)+P(A)=1

J0018

9 _________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
ProbabilityofanEvent

10 ________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
Exercises

1. Find the error in the statement: The probability

that it will rain tomorrow is 0.40 and the probability
that it will not rain tomorrow is 0.52.

4. The probability that an industry will locate in Cebu

is 0.7, the probability that it will locate in Davao is
0.4, and the probability that it will locate in either
Cebu or Davao or both is 0.8. What is the
probability that the industry will locate

2. A pair of dice is tossed. Find the probability of

getting
b. At most a total of 5

a. in both cities?

3. If A, B, and C are mutuallyexclusive events and P(A)

= 0.2, P(B) = 0.3, and P(C) = 0.2, find
a. P(A B C)

J0018

ProbabilityofanEvent

Exercises

a. A total of 8

*PropertyofSTI

b. in neither city?

5. Two cards are drawn in succession from a deck

without replacement. What is the probability that
both cards are greater than 2 and less than 8?

c. P(B C)

b. P(A (B C)]
*PropertyofSTI

J0018

11 ________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________

*PropertyofSTI

J0018

12 ________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________

ConditionalProbability

ConditionalProbability
Definition Two events A and B are independent if the fact that
A occurs does not affect the probability of B occurring

Conditional Probability of B, given A denoted by

P(B|A), is the probability that an event will occur given
that another event has already occurred. In symbol,

P(B | A)

P(A B)
P(A)

Either

Two events A and B are dependent events for which the

outcome or occurrence of event A affects the outcome or
occurrence of event B in such a way that the probability is
changed

if P(A) > 0

Conditional Probability of A, given B

P(A|B)

P(A B)
P(B)

*PropertyofSTI

P(B|A) = P(B) or P(A|B) = P(A)

Either

if P(B) > 0

P(B|A) P(B) or P(A|B) P(A)

The condition P(B|A) = P(B) implies that P(A|B) = P(A), and

conversely

J0018

13 ________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
ConditionalProbability

*PropertyofSTI

J0018

14 ________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
ConditionalProbability
Multiplicative Rules for Probability
Rule 1: When two events are independent, the
probability of both occurring is

Multiplicative Rule
The multiplication rules can be applied to determine
the probability of two or more events that occur in
sequence

P(A B)=P(A) P(B)

Rule 2: When two events are dependent, the
probability of both occurring is

Joint probability the probability of the intersection of

two events, written as P(A B)

P(A B)=P(A) P(A|B)

Rule 3: When two events are mutually exclusive, their
joint probability is always zero. If A and B are two
mutuallyexclusive events, then
P(A B)=0

*PropertyofSTI

J0018

15 ________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________

*PropertyofSTI

J0018

16 ________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________

ConditionalProbability

ConditionalProbability

Exercises

Exercises

1. A class in advance writing is comprised of 10 juniors,

30 seniors, and 10 graduate students. The final
grades showed that 3 of the juniors, 10 of the
seniors, and 5 of the graduate students received a
1.0 for the course. If a student is chosen at random
from this class and is found to have earned 1.0, what
is the probability that he or she is a senior?

2. If the probability that Tom will be alive in 20 years is

0.7 and the probability that Nancy will be alive in 20
years is 0.9, what is the probability that neither will
be alive after 20 years?

*PropertyofSTI

J0018

3. Find the probability of randomly selecting 4 good

quarts of milk in succession from a cooler
containing 20 quarts of which 5 have spoiled.

17 ________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________

*PropertyofSTI

J0018

18 ________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________
___________________________