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Appendix 1

High Level Decision




Making Framework

December 2010

APPENDIX 1
High Level Decision Making Framework
December 2010

Prepared for:

Prepared by:

20 Bay Street, Suite 901


Toronto ON M5J 2N8
In Association with:

APPENDIX1
HIGHLEVELDECISIONMAKINGFRAMEWORK
TABLEOFCONTENTS

1. Introduction.....................................................................................................................1
1.1. Background.....................................................................................................................................1
1.2. StudyPurpose.................................................................................................................................1
1.3. ThisDocument................................................................................................................................1

2. PurposeoftheDecisionMakingFramework....................................................................2
2.1. PrimaryPurpose.............................................................................................................................2
2.2. PrinciplesofOptionScreening.......................................................................................................3
2.3. TheGOElectrificationStudyOptionScreeningProcess................................................................4

3. DevelopmentoftheDECISIONMAKINGFRAMEWORK.....................................................5
3.1. Introduction....................................................................................................................................5
3.2. BigMoveVisionandObjectives.....................................................................................................5
3.3. GOElectrificationStudyObjectives................................................................................................7
3.4. ProjectTeamApproach..................................................................................................................8

4. EstablishingtheReferenceCase.......................................................................................9
4.1. Introduction....................................................................................................................................9

5. ApplicationoftheDecisionMakingFramework.............................................................11
5.1. OverallStudyApproach................................................................................................................12
5.2. EvaluationCategories...................................................................................................................13
5.3. ApplicationoftheDecisionMakingFramework..........................................................................14

APPENDIX
APPENDIX1A........................................................................................................................21

GOElectrificationStudyFinalReportAppendix1December2010

FIGURES
Figure1

ATypicalOptionScreeningProcess......................................................................3

Figure2

DMFwithStudyApproachandPhasing...............................................................4

Figure3

KeyConsiderationswhenDesigningtheDMF.......................................................5

Figure4

ImpactsoftheBigMoveandtherelevancetotheGOElectrificationStudy.........6

Figure5

ComparisonofScenariosandOptions..................................................................9

Figure6

SummaryofTasksbyStudyStage......................................................................12

Figure7

EvaluationCategoriesintheDecisionMakingFramework.................................14

Figure8

StrategicFunctionoftheDecisionMakingFramework.....................................16

Figure9

IndicativeImpacts,MeasuresandAssessmentsbyEvaluationCategories........19

Figure11

ReferenceCaseGOTransitNetwork................................................................23

ii

GOElectrificationStudyFinalReportAppendix1December2010

1. INTRODUCTION
1.1. Background
The Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) is in the midst of a transportation transformation as a
result of a renewed public commitment to invest and grow regional transit. The Big Move a compelling
integrated,multimodalvisionforregionaltransportationadoptedbyMetrolinxin2008,willstrengthenthe
economic, social and environmental sustainability of the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area and
profoundly change how people and goods are transported within the region. GO, a division of Metrolinx
andtheGTHAsprincipalinterregionaltransitservice,willplayadecisivepartinthistransformation.The
meansbywhichGOsrailsystemgrowsanddevelopsisthereforeessentialtorealizingtheambitiousvision
of The Big Move and creating a GTHA that is shaped and supported by a worldleading regional
transportationnetwork.

1.2. StudyPurpose
MetrolinxcommissionedthisStudytoexaminehowGOcanworktowardsthegoalsofTheBigMoveoverthenext25
years. The overriding purpose of the Electrification Study is to provide Metrolinxs Board of Directors with the
information necessary to make an informed decision on whether to meet future service requirements by using
conventionalandfuturedieselpoweredtrainsorbyutilizingtrainspoweredbyelectricityoralternatemeans.
Insummary,thekeyquestionstobeaddressedinthisstudyare:

IsthereacasefortheelectrificationofGOTransitnetwork?

Ifso,howcanthisbedone?

whereandwhenshoulditbedone?

In order to answer these questions it is important to understand the key attributes of electrification and
other options. The tradeoffs between different rolling stock technologies, including electric and diesel
trains,associatedinfrastructureandoperationalconsiderationswillbeassessed.

1.3. ThisDocument
This document sets out the high level Decision Making Framework (DMF) that will be used to identify
tradeoffsbetweenalternatives.AkeyobjectiveoftheStudyInitiationofStage1isthedevelopmentofa
HighLevelDMFwhichpermitstheteamtoquicklyfocusonthekeyobjectivesfortheStudy.Thiswillalso
bepresentedtoMetrolinxandStakeholders,withaviewtoformingaquickbuyinandacceptancebefore
thenextworkactivity.ItisintendedtosupplementtheStudyWorkPlanandisadeliverableoftheProject
Initiation.Thisdocumentisstructuredasfollows:

InSection2,thepurposeoftheDMFisdiscussedwhyitisrequiredforthisstudyandhowtheDMF
fitsinwiththeoverallprojectcycle;

InSection3,thewaytheDMFwasdevelopedisdiscussedthekeyconsiderationsandrationalethat
haveledtothedesignandscopeoftheDMF;

InSection4,theprinciplesofestablishingtheReferenceCaseisdiscussed;and

GOElectrificationStudyFinalReportAppendix1December2010

InSection5theapplicationoftheDMFacrosstheprojectphasesisdiscussed,includinghowtheDMFis
usedinscreeningoutoptionstoensurethatappropriateoptionsaretakenforwardforfurtherdetailed
assessmentinthenextstage.

2. PURPOSEOFTHEDECISIONMAKINGFRAMEWORK
2.1. PrimaryPurpose
In a society where there are finite financial resources available to improve the quality of life, investment
decisionsareincreasinglydependentonthereturntheinvestmentislikelytomake.Thejustificationofa
multibillion dollar investment will require the consideration of its ability to achieve strategic objectives,
understandingitsimpacts,andthatthechosensolutionoffersthebestreturnorvalueformoney.
For the GO Electrification Study, the decision on whether to meet future service requirements by using
conventional and future diesel powered trains or by utilizing trains powered by electricity or alternate
meanswillrequireagreatdealofconsiderationofimpactsacrossawiderangeofdisciplines.Itisimportant
to note that some of these impacts can be quantified or valued in monetary terms, while others will be
morequalitativeorsubjective.
The DMF is intended to be traceable, defensible, transparent and capable of effectively differentiating
betweenalternativesbasedonmultiattributecriteria.
A conventional cost: benefit analysis of monetized impacts of Technology will be used to support the
transportationcase,howeveritwillonlyconstituteanelementofthedecisionmakingprocessandtheDMF
will also consider other impacts across various disciplines in a qualitative and quantitative manner. The
DMF will provide the dashboard of material from which Metrolinx can base their decision in both
quantitative(monetizedorotherwise)andqualitativeterms.
There will be a high degree of stakeholder interest in the outcome of the comparative analysis of
alternativetechnologies.Consequently,itiscriticalthatarobustmultiattributedecisionmakingprocessis
inplacetoinformMetrolinxtheimplicationsofeachoptiontoassisttheirdecisionmaking.
Insummary,theDMFis:

A process which enables us to identify and demonstrate the shortlist of best potential options to be
implemented;and

Aninformationrepositoryordashboardthatsummarizeskeyimpactsofeachdetailedoptionunder
asetofEvaluationCategoriesfromwhichMetrolinxwillbasetheirdecisionon.

GOElectrificationStudyFinalReportAppendix1December2010

2.2. PrinciplesofOptionScreening
Withprojectsofthisnature,alargenumberofoptionsorpermutationofoptionsshouldbeconsideredfor
assessment.Ataninitialstageeachoptionwillbeassessedatahighlevelbutasthestudymovestowardsa
shortlistofoptions,thelevelofanalysisbecomesprogressivelymoredetailed.Overtheprojectperiodthe
DMF therefore facilitates an effective process to screen out options not worth pursuing and concentrate
effortsontheoptionsmostlikelytosucceedandmeettheGOElectrificationStudysobjectives.Weneed
tobechannellingeffortonthoseoptionsthathavearealpotentialratherthanlesslikelyones.However,
thedecisiontoeliminateoptionsmustbeclearlyauditable.
AtypicaloptionscreeningprocessisillustratedinFigure1.InthecontextofthisStudy,anoptionisdefined
asapotentialnetworkusingalternativerollingstocktechnologyononeormoreofthesevenGOTransit
lines.TheapplicationoftheDMFateachofthesestageswillbediscussedinmoredetailinsection4.

Figure1

ATypicalOptionScreeningProcess

DECISIONMAKING
FRAMEWORK

OptionPre
Screening

Technology
PreScreening

Screening

Evaluation of
rolling stock
technologies
in the context
of the GO
Transit
network

Demand
Analysis,
Opportunities,
Capacityand
Operational
Constraints,
HighLevel
Option
Generation

Decision
Making
FurtherOption
Development

Detailed
Development
Assessment

Option
and

FewerOptions,More
DetailinAssessment

GOElectrificationStudyFinalReportAppendix1December2010

2.3. TheGOElectrificationStudyOptionScreeningProcess
ADMFhasbeendevelopedandtailoredspecifictotheGOElectrificationStudyandwillvaryinitslevelof
detailovertheprojectperiod.TheoptionscreeningprocesssitswithinthecoreoftheStudy,facilitatedby
theDMFsupportedbytheEvaluationCategories.ThisisillustratedasaflowchartinFigure2.
Followingtheoptiongeneration,aprescreenwillreducealargenumberofline/technologyoptionsdown
toapproximately18strategicnetworkoptionswheretheyareconsideredinmoredetailforscreening,then
up to 6 options would be taken forward for an indepth assessment so that the most important and
relevantinformationcan besummarizedbeforethefinaldecisionismadebyMetrolinx. Throughout the
process,consultationwillbemadewithMetrolinx,variousstakeholderstoensurethattheprinciplesofthe
methodologyareaccepted.
Figure2

DMFwithStudyApproachandPhasing

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Stage 4

Stage 5

GOElectrificationStudyFinalReportAppendix1December2010

3. DEVELOPMENTOFTHEDECISIONMAKINGFRAMEWORK
3.1. Introduction
ItiscriticalthattheDMFisdevelopedinawaythatkeyimpactsandconsiderationscanbecapturedandset
outinatransparentmanner.Theimpactstobeassessed(monetized,quantifiedorevaluatedqualitatively)
willneedtoreflecttheoverallstrategicobjectivesoftheregion,strategicoptionsoftheStudyandmaterial
impactsthattheschemeislikelytohave.Figure3belowsummarizesthis.

Figure3

KeyConsiderationswhenDesigningtheDMF

GOTransitObjectives

TheBigMoveObjectives

PotentialImpactsofthe
Scheme

ObjectivesoftheGOElectrificationStudy

3.2. BigMoveVisionandObjectives
ThevisionsetoutintheBigMove,orRegionalTransportationPlan(RTP)statesthattheGHTAwillhavean
integratedtransportationsystemthatenhancesthequalityoflifeandprosperityoftheresidents:

Ahighqualityoflifecommunitieswillsupporthealthyandactivelifestyles,withmanyoptionstoget
aroundquickly,reliably,conveniently,comfortablyandsafely;

Athriving,sustainableandprotectedenvironmentthetransportationsystemwillhavealowcarbon
footprint,conserveresources,andcontributetoalegacyofahealthyandcleanenvironmentforfuture
generations;and

A strong, prosperous and competitive economy the region will be competitive with the worlds
strongest regions. Businesses will be supported by a transportation system that moves goods and
deliversservicesquicklyandefficiently.

Thesevisionsandobjectives,atamoredetailedlevel,ledtoaseriesofaspiredstrategicimprovementsto
transportationintheGTHAincludingmorefrequenttransitservicesandservingalargerarea.Thesewere
developedbyMetrolinxandtheimpactsthattheBigMoveimprovementsispredictedtohaveonarange
oftransportationindicatorsacrossallmodesissetoutinFigure4.
The GO Electrification Study is relevant to many of the important Big Move deliverables and this is
represented at a high level in Figure 4 as ticks against each measure of statistics. These measures can
therefore be used alongside the assessment of options in the DMF to illustrate how far the
recommendationsgoindeliveringtheBigMoveaspirations.

GOElectrificationStudyFinalReportAppendix1December2010

Figure4

ImpactsoftheBigMoveandtherelevancetotheGOElectrificationStudy

KeyStatisticsfromtheBigMove

%Change
withTheBig
Move

Relevanceto
GO
Electrification
Study

Averagedistancetravelledbycareachdayperperson

25%

Percentofpeoplewholivewithin2kmofrapidtransit

+70%

TransportationChoice

TimeSpentCommuting
Lengthofrapidtransitserviceintheregion

+330%

Percentofpeoplewhocangettoworkin45minutesorlessbytransit

+95%

Percentofpeoplewhocangettoworkin45minutesorlessbycar

+30%

Averagetimespentcommutingeachdayperperson

30%

Totalnumberoftransittripstakeneveryyear

+60%

Numberoftransitridersduringthemorningpeakperiod

+60%

Proportionofmorningrushhourtripstakenbytransit

+60%

UseofTransit

WalkingandCycling
Proportionofmorningrushhourtripstakenbywalkingorcycling

+40%

Approximatepercentageofschoolchildrenwhowalkorcycletoschool

+55%

EnvironmentalImpact
Annualgreenhousegasemissionsfrompassengertransportationperperson

25%

Annualenergyconsumptionfrompassengertransportationperperson

25%

Numberofoccupantsintheaverageprivatemotorvehicleduringthemorning
rushhour

+10%

GOElectrificationStudyFinalReportAppendix1December2010

3.3. GOElectrificationStudyObjectives
TheapplicationoftheDMFwillbeguidedbyasetofGOElectrificationStudyObjectives.Theobjectives
listedhavebeendevelopedwithinputfromtheTermsofReferencedevelopedbytheCommunityAdvisory
Committee as approved by the Metrolinx Board of Directors and the Metrolinx Planning documents. The
objectiveswherereviewedattheStakeholderWorkshop#1andaresubjecttoreviewandconfirmationby
Metrolinx.Itshouldbenotedthattheseobjectivesimplytheselectionofasingletechnology,thoughthat
issomethingthatwillneedtobedeterminedthroughthestudyprocess.Itispossiblethatmorethanone
technologymightbeproposedforthenetwork.
Technology,CapacityandService

Theimplementationoftheselectedtechnologyshouldimprovetransitreliability;

Theselectedtechnologyshouldfacilitatefaster,morefrequentandlesscrowdedtransit;

The selected technology should facilitate improved connections and service within the GTHA and
to/fromregional,provincial,andinternationalterminalsandfacilities;

The implementation of the selected technology should minimize impact on other rail services (e.g.
CN/CP/VIA);and

Theselectedtechnologyshouldbeproveninacomparableclimaticsetting.

EnvironmentandHealth

Theselectedoptionsshouldresultinanetimprovementtohumanhealthinadjacentcommunities;

Theselectedtechnologyshouldcontributetoimprovedairquality;

The implementation of the selected technology should make a significant contribution to the
achievementofthetransportationrelatedGHGreductiontargetsofGOGreen:OntariosActionPlan
forClimateChange;

The selected technology should be implemented in a manner that will minimize negative impacts on
agriculturalandnaturalsystems;

Theselectedtechnologyshoulddecreasetheuseofnonrenewableresources;and

The selected technology should encourage environmentally sustainable operations ( e.g. through the
useofgreentechnologies).

CommunityandLandUse

Theselected technologyshouldbecapableofbeingimplementedinamannerthatwould encourage


transitsupportive densities, visionary community developments and enhanced community facilities
(e.g.bikepaths);

GOElectrificationStudyFinalReportAppendix1December2010

The selected technology implementation should minimize the need to acquire property to
accommodateassociatedinfrastructure;

The selected technology should be implemented in a manner that will minimize adverse
community/socialimpactsincludingaestheticimpactsandimpactsfromnoiseandvibration;and

Theselectedtechnologyshouldbeimplementedinamannerthatwillminimizeadverseheritageand
archaeologicalimpacts.

Economic

The implementation of the selected technology should optimize opportunities to provide positive
economicbenefitstothelocal,regionalandnationaleconomies(e.g.domesticmanufacturingcapacity,
foreigndirectinvestment,demandforskilledlabour);and

The implementation of the selected technology should provide appropriate land development
opportunities.

SystemCosts,Funding,FinancingandDelivery

The selected technology should provide value associated with all relevant and material hard and soft
systemcapitalcosts,operatingcosts,andlifecyclemaintenancecosts;and

Theselectedtechnologyshouldbeimplementablewithcosteffectivefinancingsolutions.

3.4. ProjectTeamApproach
TheoverallStudyapproachadoptedbytheteamisasfollows:

Objectivewewillendeavourtoensurethatthestudywillbeconductedwithaclearandtransparent
process that can be related to the strategic goals and objectives for transportation in the Greater
TorontoandHamiltonArea,suchthattheoutcomescanbereadilyunderstoodbyallparties;

Comprehensiveourapproachwillconsidereconomic,social,environmental,health,operationaland
technologicalconsiderationsinprovidingabasisuponwhichMetrolinxdecisionmakerscanassessthe
relativemeritsofalternatives;

Inclusivewehaveprovidedahighqualityandinnovativeapproachtoensuringthatstakeholders
areengagedandfeelpartofthestudythroughoutthecommission.TheoverallDMFprocessmust
receivebuyinfromthestakeholdersifdefendabledecisionsaredependentonit;and

Evidencebasedwerecognizetheimportanceofdecisionsbeingbaseduponrobustandcredible
material,andtothateffectwewillassurethatourmethodologydeliversresultsthatprovidethat
reassurancetoMetrolinx.

The development of the DMF will endorse these principles whereby comprehensive, multidisciplinary
impactsidentifiedduringthecourseoftheStudywillbecapturedwithintheDMF.

GOElectrificationStudyFinalReportAppendix1December2010

4. ESTABLISHINGTHEREFERENCECASE
4.1. Introduction
ItisimportanttobeabletodistinguishtheperformanceofdifferenttechnologiesagainstaReferenceCase.Inorderto
establishthemeritsofelectrification,variouselectricandnonelectricoptionswillbegeneratedandassessed.Figure
5illustratesthis:

Figure5

ComparisonofScenariosandOptions

Net Benefits of Technology 2


over1

NetImpact

NetBenefitsof
Technology1
Net Benefits of Likely
FutureEnhancements

Todays
Network

+
Future
Enhancements with
Existing Technology
(ReferenceCase)

Technology1

Technology2

GOElectrificationStudyFinalReportAppendix1December2010

ReferenceCase
AttheinitialstageoftheStudyitwasagreewithMetrolinxwhatismeantbytheReferenceCasenetwork.
TheReferenceCasewillbetheusedtocompareeachoptionandithasbeendevelopedconsideringthe
following:

Currentrailserviceandinfrastructure,plus

Committedschemes(infrastructure,rollingstockandservices)forwhichfundingidentified,plus

OtherschemesadvisedbyMetrolinxthatmightreasonablybeexpectedtobeimplementedinthe
mediumterm.

TheReferenceCaseisdocumentedindetailwithintheReferenceCaseWorkbook.

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GOElectrificationStudyFinalReportAppendix1December2010

5. APPLICATIONOFTHEDECISIONMAKINGFRAMEWORK
TheStudywillconsideralternativetechnologiesthatmaybecomeviableintheshorttomediumtermto
informtheMetrolinxBoardofDirectorsdecisionwithregardtoavailabletechnologyoptions.TheStudyis
toassessandidentifyanoptimaltechnology,orcombinationoftechnologies,thatwouldbeabletoattain
thesystemperformancegoalsidentifiedinTheBigMoveandtheobjectivesoftheGOElectrificationStudy.
TheoutputsoftheStudywillbe:

A comprehensive and detailed analysis of the tradeoffs associated with the implementation of each
technologyrelatedtoits:
o CapacityandServiceImpacts,includingreliabilityofservice;
o EnvironmentalandHealthImpacts;
o CommunityandLandUseImpacts;
o EconomicImpacts;and
o SystemCosts,Funding,FinancingandDelivery.

Animplementationstrategyforthescenariosconsideredinfurtherdetail;

An evaluation of the major scenarios in terms of nonmonetized metrics that enable a wide range of
measurestobeassessedandconsideredalongsidethefinancialoutputs;

Anoverallcostbenefitanalysisonasystemwideandcorridorbycorridorbasis;

A list of key findings and conclusions, including cost to benefit ratios for the technology and
implementationoptions,withinthecontextofTheBigMove;and

Considerationofstakeholderengagementandconsultations.

These outputs will be used to inform the design of the DMF to ensure that the impacts relevant to
MetrolinxaredocumentedandpresentedtothedecisionmakerinaconcisemannerwithintheDMF.

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GOElectrificationStudyFinalReportAppendix1December2010

5.1. OverallStudyApproach
TheStudyapproachissummarizedinFigure6.Figure2previouslyillustratedhowtheDMFlinksbacktothe
StudyStages.
Figure6
StudyStage

SummaryofTasksbyStudyStage
Description

Stage1

Projectinitiation

Stage2

Determinestrategicobjectives,baselineconditionsandpotentialopportunities;
Identifythecriteriauponwhichtheprescreeningwillbeundertaken;and
Obtainvaluesandinsightfromstakeholdersandthecommunities,andreceive
feedback.

Stage3

Developalternativetechnologyoptions,identifyrisks,consultwiththepublicand
stakeholdersofthepossibilitiesandreceivefeedback;and
Undertaketheprescreeningexercisetoremovethosetechnologiesthatdonot
meettheagreedcriteria.
Itisexpectedthatthiswillberelativelyhighlevelinordertofilteroutthose
technologiesthathaveverylittleprospectofbeingtakenforward;wehaveassumed
thatwewillbeleftwithamaximumof18technology/line/scenarios.

Stage4

WewillundertakeamorerobustapplicationoftheDMFinwhichagreaterdegreeof
quantificationwillbeappliedtotheoptions.
TheanalysisatanetworklevelwillincludethespecificationofaReferenceCasethat
willenableaseriesofmodelrunswesuggestamaximumof4.Thepurposeofthis
stageistoidentifyupto6shortlistedtechnology/linescenariosthatshouldbe
progressedformoredetailedassessment,bearinginmindthatthepartial
implementationofanalternativetechnologybydefaultleaveselementsofthe
existingdieseltechnology.
Consultationwiththepublicandstakeholdersandreceivingfeedbackwillcontinue.

Stage5

Conductadetailedassessmentofcorridor/technologyscenarios;
Developarecommendedoption,phasingscenarioandbusinesscase;and
Consultwiththepublicandstakeholdersandreceivefeedback.
Ourproposallimitsthenumberofoptionsonwhichadetailedanalysiswillbe
conductedtoamaximumof6options,recognisingthelevelofcomplexityrequiredto
provideacomprehensiveevaluation.Inpreparingtheridershipforecaststhat
underpinelementsoftheevaluation,wewillspecifyapproximately6modelrunsfor
Metrolinxtoprovide.

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GOElectrificationStudyFinalReportAppendix1December2010

5.2. EvaluationCategories
EvaluationCategorieswillbeusedtosummarizetheassessmentofvariousimpactsofaparticularoption,
where a category refers to the overall family of specific impacts across similar disciplines and does not
necessarily require impacts to be monetized. Impacts can be summarized quantitatively or qualitatively
usingprofessionaljudgement.
EvaluationCategorieswillbedevelopedthatreflecttheElectrificationobjectives.Thesewillbebasedupon
thefollowing:

Financial;

EnvironmentalandHealth;

UserBenefits/QualityofLife

Economic;

SocialCommunity;and

Implementation.

TheEvaluationCategoriesintheDMFareillustratedinFigure7,andcanbemappedagainstthekeyStudy
objectivessetoutin3.3.

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GOElectrificationStudyFinalReportAppendix1December2010

Figure7

EvaluationCategoriesintheDecisionMakingFramework

BIGMOVEandSTUDYOBJECTIVES

Environmentaland
Health

Financial

UserBenefits/Qualityof
Life

DecisionMaking
Framework

Economic

SocialCommunity

Implementation

5.3. ApplicationoftheDecisionMakingFramework
The purpose of the DMF is to provide Metrolinx with all the relevant information across the various
EvaluationCategoriestoultimatelymakeaninformeddecision.EachofthesixEvaluationCategorieswill
contain various impacts to be reported in a quantitative (metrics monetized or nonmonetized) or
qualitative.Thescopeoftheimpactstobequantifiedandthemetricstobeusedwillbedependentonthe
natureandnumberofoptionsbeingassessed.
The monetized cost:benefit analysis will be a tool to determine the full value (benefits and costs) of the
various technology alternatives where these are transparent to stakeholders, but Metrolinx will also
considervariousimpactsintheotherfiveEvaluationCategories.
IntheDMFapproach,keyimpactsnotcapturedfinanciallywillbequantifiedusingmetrics(statistics)and
broadermeasures.Whereimpactsarenotquantified,orwheretheyarequantitative(butnotmonetized)
butaqualitativeassessmentismorehelpfulthanmetrics,theevaluationwillbeundertakenqualitativelyby
aSevenPointScaleassessment,suchas:

Strongpositiveimpact;

Moderatepositiveimpact;

Slightpositiveimpact;

Neutral/Noimpact;

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GOElectrificationStudyFinalReportAppendix1December2010

Slightnegativeimpact;

Moderatenegativeimpact;and

Strongnegativeimpact.

DecisionMakingFrameworksContents
Figure8and9setsout,atastrategiclevel,howtheDMFwillworkandthekeyconsiderations.Thetable
considerstheinformationtobeincludedintheDMFandseekstoanswerthefollowingquestions:

Optiondescriptionwhatistheoptionbeingassessedandwhatarethekeyfeatures?

StrategicFitAssessmentdoestheoptionsolvetheproblems/achievetheStudyobjectives?

ComparisonagainstBigMovetargetshowdoestheoptionhelpachieveGTHAsaspirations?

AssessmentofthesixEvaluationCategorieswhataretheimpactsoftheoptionacrossanumberof
disciplines?Howdotheycompareundervariousmetricsandwhatarethekeyissues?

HowistheDMFgoingtoassisttheoptionscreeningandselection?

Theassessmentwillbeundertakenatahighlevel,enablingadistinctionbetweenthedifferentoptionsto
helpguidefurtherstudywhereappropriate.
An understanding of the potential capacity of each corridor will be made, and an assessment of the
operationalcapabilityofthatcorridorintermsoftrainpathsconsideringtheothertrainmovementssuchas
freightoperatedbyCNandpassengerservicesoperatedbyViaRail.Foreachtechnology,therewillbea
simpleassessmentofthemaximumserviceoneachcorridoreitherwithfullorpartialimplementationofa
particulartechnology,andwhetherthereisscopetosplittheoperationbetweencurrentandanalternative
technology.
Whereappropriate,networkconstraintswillbeidentifiedandhighlevelinfrastructureimprovementswill
besuggestedtounlockfurthercapacityinordertosatisfypassengerdemandrequirements.
The detail of the assessment will depend on the stage of the Study and the number of options being
assessed.ThiswillbedevelopedfurtherthroughouttheStudyfollowingconsultation.
OptionProgression
Following the initial technology screening down to three alternative technologies plus the existing
technology, a long list of corridor/technology options will be generated. Prescreening criteria on the
potentialoptionswillbegeneratedtoproducealonglistofapproximately18optionsforfurtherstudy.At
this stage in the process, the focus is on considering implementing alternative technologies the different
corridorsasnetworkoptions.
The18optionstakenforwardformoredetailedassessmentwouldonlyconsiderafamilyofelectrictrains
as the alternative technology and does not consider detailed issues such as partial electrification of a
particular corridor these will be considered once the short list of 6 options has been identified. The
processfordeterminingupto6optionsforfullassessmentwillbedeterminedthroughtheapplicationof
theDMFcoupledwiththeappropriateengagementanddebatewithstakeholders.
DecisionMaking

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GOElectrificationStudyFinalReportAppendix1December2010

There are various options that can be used for distinguishing the overall stronger options from weaker
options across a variety of assessment criteria. One approach in ranking options might entail a method
known as Concordance Analysis, which allows different types of data (qualitative and quantitative) to be
integrated in a traceable and mathematically valid manner. It also can be used to undertake sensitivity
analysisbyapplyingdifferentweightstothecriteria,ifdesired.
Wewouldensurethattheoveralldecisionmakingtoolisaccompaniedbyaqualitativereviewintheform
of a pair wise comparison to test any quantitative analysis. This would provide Metrolinx with a written
decisionmakingtrailofthethoughtprocessthatwentintothetradeoffprocess.Thequantitativeanalysis
shouldnotbethesoledecisionmakingprocessbutanessentialpartofthe bodyofevidencewith which
differentimpactsandtradeoffsareconsidered.
Figure8

StrategicFunctionoftheDecisionMakingFramework

MAEFeature

TechnologyOption CorridorOption
PreScreening
PreScreening

NetworkOption
Screening

NetworkOption
Detailed
Assessment

NumberofOptions

Frominitiallistto4,
includingTier4
dieseltechnology

Frominitiallistof
corridoroptionsto
18networkoptions

From18to6

Final6options

FocusofStage

Identifying
technologiesthat
areprovenand
viablefortheGTHA
setting

Identifying
appropriate
networkoptions

Screenthenetwork
optionstotake
forwardoptions
thataremostlikely
tosucceedin
deliveringStudy
objectives

Undertakesufficient
analysistoassessall
relevantimpacts,
andsummarizethis
informationina
mannerthathelps
thedecisionmaker
choosethe
preferredoption

OptionDescription

Summary
descriptionandkey
characteristics

Summary
descriptionand
rationale

Summary
descriptionand
rationale

Summary
descriptionand
rationalewith
detailedreporting

StrategicFit
Assessmentagainst
BigMoveandStudy
objectivesunder
eachEvaluation
Category

Notconsideredin
detail.

Notconsideredin
detail.

Sevenpointscale
summary
assessmentwith
supporting
commentary

Sevenpointscale
summary
assessmentwith
supporting
commentary

Comparedagainst
BigMovetargets
(SeeFigure4)

Notquantified

Notquantified

Notquantified

Impactsquantified
andcompared
againsttarget

16

GOElectrificationStudyFinalReportAppendix1December2010

Assessmentagainst
Evaluation
Category:

Consideredatahigh
level.Primary
considerationis
deliverabilityare
thosetechnologies
unlikelyto
appropriateforthe
characteristicsof
theGOnetworkor
unproven
technologytobe
prescreenedout

Notconsideredin
detail.Ifknown
issuessignificantly
reducesthe
acceptabilityofthe
optionexists,these
willbedocumented
intheDMF.

Assessment
Methodology

Literaturereviewof
technologiesand
considerationof
professional
expertisetoidentify
thetechnically
viabletechnology
options

Identificationand
applicationof
specificdecision
rulestodefinethe
options(technology
andassociated
infrastructure)on
eachnetwork

Identificationand
applicationof
exclusionarycriteria
toeliminateoptions
forfurther
considerationthat
clearlydonotmeet
theobjectivesofthe
GOElectrification
Study

Detailedassessment
ofoptionsunder
eachmeasureof
impacttoassess
howwellthe
optionsmeetthe
objectivesand
comparative
criteria.

DecisionMaking
(Screening)tonext
stage

Primary
considerationis
deliverability

Combineremaining
corridor/
technologyoptions
intonetwork
/technologyoptions

Prescreenout
optionsconsidered
highriskunder
deliverabilityand
acceptability

Screenoutoptions
consideredhighrisk
underdeliverability
andacceptability

Detailedmulti
criteria
considerations,
identifyingkey
strengthsand
weaknesses

Category1
Measure1,
Measure2
Category2
Measure1,
Measure2
(SeeFigure9)

Developpre
screeningcriteriato
producealonglist
ofupto18options

Sevenpointscale
summary
assessmentwith
supporting
commentary
Whereappropriate
quantifyimpacts
relativetoother
optionstosupport
scaling

UseofConcordance
Analysisorsimilar
approachtorank
optionsandtake
forwardthetop6
optionswhichmay
involverefiningthe
packagingof
technology/lines.

Quantify
(monetizedornon
monetized)key
impacts
Sevenpointscale
summary
assessmentwith
supporting
commentaryfor
nonquantified
impacts

Allrelevant
informationwillbe
presentedina
summaryforthe
decisionmakerto
choosethe
preferredoption.
UseofConcordance
Analysisorsimilar
approachtorank
options

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GOElectrificationStudyFinalReportAppendix1December2010

Output

Summaryof
literaturereview
andfindingsandthe
identificationof
technologiestobe
considered

Summaryofthe
resultsofthe
applicationofthe
decisionmaking
rulesandthe
identificationof
technologyand
associated
infrastructure
optionsforeachline

Summary
descriptionand
rationaleforthe
eliminationof
options

Summaryoffindings
onacriteriagroup
basis(including
distinctcostbenefit
analysisresults)and
overallcomparative
evaluationresults

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GOElectrificationStudyFinalReportAppendix1December2010

Figure9

IndicativeImpacts,MeasuresandAssessmentsbyEvaluationCategories

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GOElectrificationStudyFinalReportAppendix1December2010

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APPENDIX1A

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GOElectrificationStudyFinalReportAppendix1ADecember2010


Figure11

ReferenceCaseGOTransitNetwork

TheReferenceCasenetworkhasbeendevelopedforthepurposeofcomparingoptionsonly.

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