Lab

1: Uncertainty
Desire DMoore

Lab Partner: N/A

Lab TA: Stewart P. Swift

Date: August 27, 2014


Theory

All science advancements use the scientific method to provide a theory. The
accuracy of a measurement can ultimately determine the veracity of that theory. Not
much information can be collected if the uncertainty of a measurement is not
known. Many factors contribute to uncertainty in a measurement, such as statistical
variation, measurement precision, or systematic error. Of the three factors,
statistical variation and measurement uncertainty are inevitable, thus having a
percentage uncertainty is mandatory. Statistical variance was explored with the coin
toss lab. The estimated total number of heads for a set of data was found by using

( ! )^

that standard deviation formula, = !

, the square root of the sum of X
(each score) and (the mean or average) squared divided by the number of values
minus one. Measurement Precision was explored through the second lab, where the
dimensions of a block of wood could be used to determine the type of wood with
only the formulas for area (length times width), volume (area times height), and
density (mass divided by volume).

Experimental Description

In order to understand statistical variation, we observed the number of times
a penny would land on heads when the total number of tosses is 144;16 pennies
were thrown at a time, and the number of heads each time was recorded. This was
done 9 times. The expected range is given by the standard deviation. Because of the
possibility of information to be dispersed away from the mean, a large variance
would occur, creating a larger percent uncertainty. For measurement precision, a
ruler and weight was used to find the dimensions of the wood.



Results


For N number of coin flips, the expected number of heads is N/2, and the
expected standard deviation is 1/2N. For each of the tosses of 16 pennies, one
expects to get between 8-2 or 8+2 heads, or 6 to 10 heads. From the created table, it
was simple to find the average head landings to be 7.3 and the standard deviation to

be 2.8, creating the measured number of heads to be 73 heads. This satisfies the
!
expected number of heads, which is 8 according to !"#!$%!& = ! (16/2=8). The
normalized average (the average divided by 16) and standard deviation (the sigma
divided by 16) was .46 and .18. This creates a range of .5.1. This satisfied the
expected value of . With the measured and calculated data, the percentage

uncertainty can be calculated using the formula 100 !"#$!%#. The data yielded a

percentage of 39%.
Since there was a total of 144 tosses, it would be expected to get 144/2=72
heads. The standard deviation proves that it would range from 726, for an
expected total to be between 66 and 78 heads. The data proved this expected value
to be correct, for there were 66 heads tossed in total. The average per penny for the
whole 144 tosses came out to be .51 and the sigma per penny using the sigma of 6
came out to be .04. Using the same equations from before, a percentage uncertainty
of 8.1% was generated.
The second part of this lab was to create a clear understanding that all
measurements have a certain degree of uncertainty that affects calculations that
involve those measurements. Using the block provided, the dimensions in
centimeters and weight in grams were found with a ruler and a scale. The maximum
values of the length, width, and height were found by adding their uncertainty to the
measured measurement. The area, volume, and density were found using the
formulas stated above. The maximum area, volume, and density were then found
using the maximum length, width, height, and mass. The area, volume, and density
came out to be 50.5 cm2, 191.7 cm3, and 401.6 kg/m3, while the maximum area,
volume, and density were 51.9 cm2, 202.5 cm3, and 308.8 kg/m3. This tells us that
the measurement of the area is 512 cm2, the volume is 19211 cm3, and the
density is 40221 kg/m3.
The percent uncertainty is found using the formula
100(uncertainty)/(original value) area : 2.9%, volume- 5.6%, and density- 5.2%.
The expected percentage uncertainty is the sum of the percentage uncertainties in
the length and width, the sum of the percentage uncertainties in area and height for
the volume, and the sum of the percentage uncertainties in volume and mass for
density.

A table of approximate wood densities were included in the lab outline, and
with all of our calculations, it was easy to compare the calculated density of the
measured block of wood. Taking into consideration the uncertainty, it is clear that
the block of wood is most likely cottonwood.

Conclusion


By following the steps stated above, the different types of uncertainty were
found through experimentation. We were able to observe statistical variations in a
data set while still being extremely predictable with expected averages. Even with
simple measurements using a ruler and scale made it possible to guess the type of
wood that was being measured. Knowing a measurements uncertainty is very
important in finding out information or even proving a theory.

COIN TOSS: STATISTICAL VARIATION

Heads
13
9
4
8
8
5
8
8
3

Between 6 and 10
n
y
n
y
y
n
y
y
n

7.3 average




2.8 sigma





0.46 avg
per penny
with 16 pennies


per penny

0.18 sigma




39 Percentage.uncertainty







66 sum
of the n umber of heads
for 144 pennies


0.46 average

per penny for the whole 144 p ennies

0.04 sigma per penny using a sigma of 6


9.4 percentage


u ncertainty

of all values divided
Average=
the sum

by the number of values**

(
!
)^

Standard deviation= !
**

**Excel
was used to calculate instead of


by
h
and






MEASUREMENT PRECISION:
BLOCK OF WOOD

l (cm) w (cm) h (cm) m (g)

Measured

8.7

5.8

3.8

77.0

Uncertainty

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Maximum

8.8

5.9

3.9

77.1

Percentage

1.1

1.7

2.6

A (cm^2) V (cm^3) density

(kg/m^3)

50.5

uncertainty

401.6

51.9

202.5

380.8

1.5

10.7

20.8

0.1

191.7

2.9

5.6

5.2

expected percentage

2.9

5.5

5.6

expected uncertainty
(expected difference)

1.5

10.6

22.6

AREA=LENGTH*WIDTH
VOLUME=AREA*HEIGHT
DENSITY=MASS/VOLUME

1.2 Average of the 16 penny toss

How many times (out of 9) did you get exactly 8 heads? What was your
average number of heads?

I got 8 heads 4 out of 9 times. My average number of heads was 7.3.

1.4 Expected Range

How many times was your number of heads within the expected range?
Was it about 2/3 of the time?
My number of heads was within the expected range 5 out of 9 times. It was
close to 2/3 of the time.

1.5 Measured Result
What is the measured number of heads for your data? Does it agree
with theory (does the range include the theoretical value of 8)?
73; Yes.

1.6 Normalized Results

For your data, what is the measured number of heads per penny? Are
your coins fair? (Does the range per penny include the expected value of ?)

.46; Yes.

1.7 Percentage Uncertainty

What is your percentage uncertainty?

39% uncertainty

1.8 Analysis of the 144 pennies

What was the total number of heads in your data? Does it agree with
theory? What is the average number of heads per penny for your set of 144
penny tosses? If you use the expected standard deviation value of 6, what is
your uncertainty per penny and the percentage uncertainty? Is it more or less
than for 16 pennies?

66; Yes, because the sum is between 66 and 78; .46; .04; 9.4%
The percent uncertainty for the 144 pennies is less than that for the 16
pennies.

2.5 Uncertainty in compound quantities

What is your computed area, volume, and density?
The area, volume, and density is 50.5 cm2, 191.7 cm3, and 401.6 kg/m3.

2.9 What type of wood is the block made of?
Based on your results, what do you think is the most likely type of wood
your block is made of? Explain your selection with a brief sentence.
Taking into consideration the uncertainty, it is clear that the block of wood is
most likely cottonwood.