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Multilevel modeling 4: logistic regression / event history analysis using Ml wiN

Introduction
For the article 'Churches in Dutch' [Grotenhuis, M. te. & Scheepers, P. Churches in Dutch: Causes of religious disaffiliation in
The Netherlands, 1937-1995.' Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, 40, 591-606].

I constructed a person period file

with some individual variables, like gender, age, and denomination. The odd one is average educational level which
is not an individual characteristic. It is measured at province level at a certain time. When I wrote the article (in
2000) I new noting about multilevel modeling. Now, it is time to do the right logistic regression analysis with a 2level structure!

1. Open with SPSS Assignment4PPF.sav and check what is in it. The file is in the assignment folder.
2. Take a single level logistic regression model with EVENT as dependent variabele, while GENDER, PARTNER,
EDUCLEVEL, DENO AGE and AVERAGEEDUC are predictors. Please be sure that male, partner is church
member, elementary school and Catholic serve as reference.
3. Paste the estimates from LOGISTIC into your WORD document.
4. What is the logit estimate for AGE?
5. How many times do the chances to become disaffiliated approximately increase/decrease when someone is 10
years older?
6. How many times do the chances to become disaffiliated approximately increase/decrease when someone has a
partner who is already disaffiliated?
7. Add to the model the interaction between average educational level and age.
8. What is happening to the effect of rationalization as people get older?
9. Is the main effect of average educational attainment a realistic figure? Please explain.
Because in SPSS 18 and lower we cannot perform multilevel logistic regression we have to use MLwiN.
I included a MLwiN manual or something alike (cf. manual assignment4.doc)
10. Make the Sav file you opened in SPSS ready for MlwiN the way you learned during this course. Be sure you
include all the relevant variables (please note that I constructed a level 2 identifier already so you can sort the
data accordingly!!). Be sure also that you construct dummies for all categorical data! (and a cons variable)
11. Estimate the null-model . (cf. manual assignment4.doc). What is the Intra Class Correlation in this logistic
multilevel model (cf. Powerpoint presentation).
12. As a control we continue with the estimation of the single-level logistic model from Question 2 . (cf. manual
assignment4.doc) The estimates should be equal (or very close) to the estimates in Question 2 of course.
13. If all things are ok, estimate the two-level logistic model . (cf. manual assignment4.pdf).
14. What is the logit estimate for averageeduc?
15. Set the age effect random and press MORE.

Multilevel modeling 4: logistic regression / event history analysis using Ml wiN

16. Include the interaction AGE * AVERAGEEDUC. What is the logit estimate and what is the odds ratio (EXP

(b))?
17. Test whether the interaction is significant using a t-test. What is the t-value, what is df, what is the p-value and
what is your conclusion? (please look into Statistical tests, the manual in literature --> mlwin for details.
18. Last but certainly not least: are there any important differences, between a single level model and a two-level
model?
Best wishes,
Manfred