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978-1-107-02555-4 - Waves of War: Nationalism, State Formation, and Ethnic Exclusion in the
Modern World
Andreas Wimmer
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absolute political power, 261262, 263


actors in the formal model, 4345
Afghanistan, 34, 174, 195196, 237241, 251252
Africa, industrialization in, 95
agent-based models, 43, 4950
Akkus, Yakup, 227
Algeria, 24, 90, 101, 237241, 253, 265
alliances
alliance types, 4446
cultural similarity, 4951, 6567
data, 8, 5559, 207
empirical calibration of the formal model,
5559
as exchange relationships, 1113, 4749
hypotheses tested with the formal model,
5355
and nation building, 34, 3738, 46, 194196
negotiation process, 1720, 5153, 6165,
227232
purpose of, 3739
results of the formal model, 5961
types of actors, 4345
Amin, Idi, 114
anarchy, 131132, 136137, 163, 257259
Anderson, Benedict, 7, 20, 21, 75, 7778, 97,
106107
Angola, 24, 90, 237241
anocracy
in the dataset, 257259
definition of, 131132
peacefulness of, 32, 131n.22, 136, 161, 171, 176
results from the ethnic conflict models, 163,
166, 170, 171
Argentina, 265
armed conflict, seecivil wars; seeethnic conflict;
seewar

Armed Conflict Dataset (ACD), 156, 159160,


163, 265266
Armenia, 87, 90, 237241, 251252
Australia, 237241, 257
Austria, 87, 90, 237241
autocracy, 176, 257259
Balkans, 24, 76
Baltic republics, 87, 100
Bangladesh, 90, 237241, 259
Beik, William, 210
Belize, 87
Bhutan, 110, 237241
Binningsbo, Helga Malmin, 193
Blaufarb, Rafe, 215
Bolivia, 24, 78, 99, 100, 129, 237241
Bosnia and Herzegovina, 122, 148, 149, 171172,
191192, 237241
Breuilly, John, 6, 74
Britain, seeGreat Britain
Brubaker, Rogers, 118, 157, 261
Buhaug, Halvard, 155, 161, 171
Bulgaria, 100, 237241
Burbank, Jane, 113
Burkina Faso, 194, 237241
Burma, 87, 191192, 237241
Cambodia, 90, 158, 237241, 256
Cameroon, 101, 237241
Campolongo, Francesca, 233, 234
Canada, 158, 237241, 256, 257
Cederman, Lars-Erik, 8, 156
Central African Republic, 237241
Central America, Republic of, 85, 88, 256
centralization of states, seestate centralization
Chad, 147148, 237241

318

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978-1-107-02555-4 - Waves of War: Nationalism, State Formation, and Ethnic Exclusion in the
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Andreas Wimmer
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Chandra, Kanchan, 202
Chevalier, Bernard, , 219
China, 110, 122, 237241, 251252, 265
citizenship, 8687
city-states, 114
civil society, seevoluntary organizations
civil wars
arguments of this study, 15, 6, 1517
commitment theory, 152
configurational theory of ethnic politics and
conflict, 1517, 149156
and democracy, 176180
democratic civil peace theory, 131132, 136137,
161, 166
dynastic kingdoms, 117
EPR dataset, 8, 2931, 144, 146147, 156160,
191, 260
and ethnic politics, 2831, 143144, 172173
exchange relationships, 34, 194196
and federalism, 180191
hypotheses in the civil and interstate war
models, 129130
inclusion of ethnic groups, 190192
and interstate wars, 113
and legitimacy, 199
long-term processes, consideration of, 111
and neighboring wars, 130, 136137, 139
and parliamentarianism, 180191
politicization of ethnicity, 201202
power sharing, 191
prevention of, 3134, 174175
and proportionalism, 180191
research on ethnic diversity and civil war,
145149, 155156
results from civil war models, 132137
results from ethnic conflict models, 161172
summary of this study, 198199
temporal patterns of, 128129
theories of ethnic conflict, 154155
transition from empire to nation-state,
118120
types of, 124, 252253
variables in the civil war models, 130132,
255259
variables in the ethnic conflict models,
160161
Clodfelter, Michael, 123, 250
Cohen, Frank, 176, 185
Coleman, James S., 4748
Collier, Paul, 31, 145, 166, 200
Colombia, 8788, 237241

319
colonial governments, 78, seealsoempires
colonial wars, 123
commitment theory of civil war, 152
configurational theory, seepower configurations
conflict, seecivil wars ethnic conflict war
Congo, Democratic Republic of, 87, 237241
Congo, Republic of the, 237241
consociationalism, 177, 183184, 189, 190, 192
Contamine, Philippe, 214215
Cooper, Frederick, 113
Correlates of War (COW) project, 122123,
250253, 259
Cosgel, Metin M., 212213
Costa Rica, 88, 237241
Croatia, 90, 125, 237241
cultural modernization theory of nation-state
formation, 21, 22, 7778, 90, 97, 106107
cultural similarity
effects on nation building and ethnic closure,
6567, 7172
in the formal model, 47
France, 50, 6768
modeling methodology, 4951
Ottoman empire, 50, 6768
Cunningham, David E., 152
Cyprus, 87, 237241
Czech Republic, 158, 237241, 259
Czechoslovakia, 85, 8788, 256
dangerous democratization hypothesis, 139
Darden, Keith, 78
data
EPR dataset, 8, 2931, 144, 146147, 156160,
191, 260
formal model of alliances and identities, 8,
5559, 207
general considerations of use in analysis, 69
nation-states, emergence of, 69, 2426
nation-states, global proliferation of, 69,
7475, 8283, 8493
nation-states, and war, 69, 112, 121125,
250259
Davis, David R., 118
Demirel, mer, 227
democracy
civil and interstate war, 131132, 136137, 139,
141, 176180
in the dataset, 257259
direct effects on ethnic conflict, 176180
as distinct from nation-state
creation, 237241

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Andreas Wimmer
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320
democracy (cont.)
and ethnic conflict, 176180
and ethnic politics, 3233
indirect effects on ethnic conflict, 3233,
181184
nation-state formation model of, 8687
power sharing, 192
war prevention, 111, 175
democratic civil peace theory, 131132, 136137,
161, 166
democratic peace theory, 131, 139, 141
Diehl, Paul F., 115, 136
diffusion processes
of the nation-state model, 43, 7879, 92, 9899
in power-configurational theory, 7982,
seealsonation-states, global proliferation
of
diversity-breeds-conflict theory, 145146, 172
Dominican Republic, 237241, 256
dynastic kingdoms, 114, 117
East Timor, 204
economic development
data sources, 259
in ethnic conflict models, 161
nation-states, global proliferation of, 21, 22,
7576, 89, 9597, 106107
and the probability of war, 130, 133, 137, 140
and propensity of ethnic conflict, 153154
results from ethnic conflict models, 163, 167,
170
economic modernization theory of nation-state
formation, 7576, 89, 9597, 106107
Ecuador, 8788, 129, 237241
education, 76, 7778, 90, 97, 217
Egypt, 224, 237241, 256
Eisenstadt, Samuel N., 113
El Salvador, 88, 237241
Elementary Effect Test, 233
elites, the
cultural similarity, 6567
data used for empirical calibration of the
formal model, 5559
in the formal model, 4345
modeling strategy, 4041
negotiation process, 1720, 5153, 6165,
230232, seealsoethnic elites; seealsopolitical elites
Emecen, Feridun, 225
empires
arguments of this study, 114115
Bosnia, 171

collapse leading to nation-state creation,


8889
dataset compiled for this study, 8, 121125,
250259
definition, 113
definition of imperial incorporation, 255
diffusion of nation-states, 8182
ethnic politics and war, 29
extent of, 114
growth resulting in war, 110, 114, 115116
institutional rule, types of, 257
negotiation process leading to the estate
order, 227232
Northern Ireland, 171
results from the ethnic conflict models, 163,
166, 170
and state cohesion, 153
temporal patterns in war rates, 125129
transition to nation-state, 8889, 110, 114,
116121, 124125
types of wars, 252253
and war, 12, 27, 115116, 121125, 141
war resulting from ethnic politics, 144,
seealsoOttoman empire
enlarged estate order, 70, 45, 236
EPR (Ethnic Power Relations) dataset, 8, 2931,
144, 146147, 156160, 191, 260
Eritrea, 237241, 251252
estate order, 45, 227232
Ethiopia, 110, 237241, 251
ethnic closure
as alliance system, 4546
cultural similarity, 6567
hypotheses tested with the formal model,
5355
nation building, 37, 3839, 71
negotiation process leading to, 1820, 6163
Ottoman empire, 19, 37, 70
results of the formal model, 5961
sensitivity analysis of results, 232236
ethnic conflict
definition of, 265266
and democracy, 176180
EPR dataset, 144, 146147, 156160, 265266
and ethnic politics, 2831, 143144, 149156,
172173
exchange relationships, 34, 194196
and federalism, 180191
inclusion of ethnic groups, 190192
and institutions, 183
nation building, effect on, 72
and parliamentarianism, 180191

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politicization of ethnicity, 201202
power sharing, 191
prevention of, 3134, 174175
and proportionalism, 180191
research on ethnic diversity and war, 145149,
155156
results from the ethnic conflict models,
161172
summary of this study, 198199
theories of, 154155
types of, 151, 270
variables in the ethnic conflict models,
160161
ethnic elites, 29, 32, 4041, 144, 151, 152
ethnic fractionalization, 8, 146, 163, 170171
ethnic politics
arguments of this study, 15, 3536
and democracy, 3233
EPR dataset, 8, 2931, 144, 146147, 156160,
191, 260
and ethnic conflict, 2731, 143144, 149156,
172173
future research, 3435
legitimacy, role of, 56
nation building and ethnic closure, 1720
politicization of ethnicity, 153154, 201202
and power, 56
research on ethnic diversity and war, 145149,
155156
results from the ethnic conflict models,
161172
summary of this study, 197199
theoretical perspective of this study, 1117
theories of ethnic conflict, 154155
variables in the ethnic conflict models,
160161
Ethnic Power Relations (EPR) dataset, 8, 2931,
144, 146147, 156160, 191, 260
ethnic wars, seeethnic conflict
ethnicity
definition, 260
and legitimacy, 200
and nation-state formation, 106
politically relevant ethnic groups, 260261
politicization of, 153154, 201202
Europe, literacy in, 7778
European Union (EU), 204
evolutionary models, 43
exchange relationships
and ethnic conflict, 34, 194196
in the formal model, 4647
modeling methodology, 4749

321
modeling strategy, 4043
nation building, 34, 3738, 46, 194196
negotiation of, 1720, 5153, 6165, 227232
and peace, 34, 194196
and power configurations, 1516, seealsoalliances
exclusion of ethnic groups
democracy, role of, 179180
and infighting, 154
Northern Ireland, 171
quantitative research, 155156
and rebellion, 151152, 154
results from the ethnic conflict models, 163,
166167, 170, 172
theories of, 154155
types of excluded groups, 262263, 265
Faroqhi, Suraiya, 223
Fearon, James D., 31, 129, 132, 135137, 145, 156, 158,
161, 162163, 170, 201202, 257
federalism, 175, 180183, 185189, 190191
feudal states, 114
Finland, 87, 237241
Fox, Jonathan, 155
France
actors in the formal model, 44
alliances in the nation building scenario, 18,
45, 6769, 72
contrast to Ottoman empire, 42
cultural similarity, 50, 6768
data used for empirical calibration of the
formal model, 42, 5559, 207212, 213216,
218223
EPR dataset, 158
exchange relationships, 195
exclusion from nation-state formation
dataset, 84
international power, 7980
military support, 68, 213216, 230
nation-state creation, 4, 19, 117
populist nationalism, 46, 68
public goods/services provision, 218223
resource distribution in the empire scenario,
227232
state centralization, role of, 37
taxation, 207212
Gambia, 87, 237241
game-theoretic exchange model of alliances
and identities
actors, 4345
alliance types, 4446

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322
game-theoretic exchange model of alliances
and identities (cont.)
cultural similarity, 4951, 6567
data, 8, 5559, 207
diffusion and spatial aspects of, 43
empirical calibration of the model, 5559,
227232
exchange relationships, 1113, 4749
hypotheses tested with the model, 5355
modeling strategy, 3943
negotiation process, 1720, 5153, 6165,
227232
purpose of, 3739
results, 5961
sensitivity analysis of results, 232236
summary of the model, 4647
game theory, 4043, 47, 5153
Gellner, Ernest, 21, 7576, 89, 9597, 106107
geographic concentration of ethnic groups, and
conflict, 155
Georgia, 29, 153, 237241, 262
Gerber, Haim, 225
Germany
EPR dataset, 158
GDP, 259
nation-state creation, 83, 85, 106, 237241, 256
wars of conquest, 127
Gerring, John, 177, 183189
Ghana, 100101, 158, 237241
Girardin, Luc, 156
Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, 113, 119, 123, 176, 184, 250
global spread of nation-states, seenation-states,
global proliferation of
Goertz, Gary, 115, 136
Goldsmith, Lewis, 209, 210, 220, 221
Gran Colombia, 85, 8788
Great Britain, 4, 7980, 84, 113114
Greece, 265
Greenfield, Liah, 80
gross domestic product (GDP)
and civil and interstate war, 130, 133, 137, 140
data sources, 259
and ethnic conflict, 153154, 161
results from the ethnic conflict models, 163,
167, 170, seealsoeconomic development
Guatemala, 88, 129, 237241, 261, 262
Guinea-Bissau, 158, 237241
Gurr, Ted R., 147, 148, 155
Habsburg empire, 76, 77, 92
Haiti, 84, 256

Hale, Henry, 105, 188


Hartzell, Caroline, 193
Hechter, Michael, 21, 65, 7677, 91, 9798, 155
hegemonic cycles and the probability of
interstate war, 130131, 140
Hegre, Hvard, 160161, 166, 184
Herbst, Jeffrey, 80
Hintze, Otto, 108
Hoddie, Matthew, 193
Hoeffler, Anke, 31, 145, 166, 200
Honduras, 88, 237241
Horowitz, Donald, 8, 41, 155, 188, 190
Howe, Stephen, 113
Hussein, Saddam, 2829, 33
identities, political
actors, 4345
as alliance systems, 1113, 4446
cultural similarity, 4951, 6567
data, 8, 5559, 207
diffusion and spatial aspects of, 43
empirical calibration of the formal model,
5559
exchange relationships, 1113, 4749
hypotheses tested with the formal model,
5355
modeling strategy, 3943
and nation building, 34, 3738, 46, 61, 194196
negotiation process, 1720, 5153, 6165,
227232
results of the formal model, 5961
sensitivity analysis of results, 232236
summary of the formal model, 4647
identity theories, 40
imperial past, seeempires
inclusion of ethnic groups
democracy, role of, 179180
and infighting, 191192
and power sharing, 191
as route to peace, 190192, seealsoexclusion
of ethnic groups
India, 83, 99, 147148, 237241
indirect rule, 43, 56 59, 71, 76, 152153, 171 229231
Indonesia, 24, 237241
industrialization and nation-state formation,
21, 22, 7576, 89, 9597, 106107,
seealsoeconomic development
infighting
and economic development, 154
ethnic conflict, types of, 151
and exclusion, 154

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Andreas Wimmer
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and federalism, 185189
and inclusion, 191192
and parliamentarianism, 185189
and proportionalism, 185189
results from the ethnic conflict models, 167172
segmented center of state power, 152
institutional capacity argument for nation-state
formation, 83, 90, 97
institutional rule, types of, 257
institutionalist argument for transition from
empire to nation-state, 113121
institutions
and ethnic conflict, 183
and infighting, 185189
and legitimacy, 1315
and power configurations, 1517
Institutions and Elections Project dataset, 183189
insurgency model
arguments of, 132
civil wars, 129, 135136
and legitimacy, 141, 145
regime change, 136137, 161
results from the ethnic conflict models, 163,
166, 170, 171
international relations theory, 2627
international standing of empire and
nation-state creation, 101
inter-polity wars, 124, 127, 252253
interstate wars
and civil wars, 113
definition, 123
democratic peace theory, 131, 144, 145
hypotheses in the interstate war models,
129130
nationalism and war, 24
and other types of war, 124, 252253
results from the interstate war models, 137140
temporal patterns of, 127
transition from empire to nation-state,
117118, 120
variables in the interstate war models,
130132, 255259
intrastate wars, 123, seealsoethnic conflict, civil
wars, secessionist wars, non-ethnic conflict
Iraq
cold peace, 194
democracy, opposition to, 179
ethnic conflict, 2829, 33, 149
political power, 261262
power sharing and inclusion, 152, 191192
war in, 27, 174, 253254

323
Ireland, 89, 148, 149, 237241
Ivory Coast, 32, 78, 237241
Japan, 24, 78, 106, 117, 237241
Kalter, Frank, 48
Karpat, Kemal, 19, 70, 227
Kenya, 122, 237241
Kilia, S., 227
kin groups, and ethnic conflict, 155
Kiser, Edgar, 57
Korea, 90, 200
Kosovo, 204
Laitin, David, 13, 31, 129, 132, 135137, 145, 156, 161,
162163, 170, 257
Lange, Matthew, 91
language
fractionalization, in ethnic conflict models,
146, 161, 163, 170171
nation-states, global proliferation of, 76
Laos, 90, 237241
Latin America, 46, 77, 95, 128129
Le Comte de Franqueville, M., 222, 223
Lebanon, 29, 252253, 262
legitimacy
and civil wars, 199
and ethnic conflict, 152153
and ethnicity, 200
nation-states, global proliferation of, 80
nation-states, and war, 2328, 115, 120, 131132,
141
politicization of ethnicity, 201202
and power configurations, 1517
principles of, 1315
role of, 56
Levi, Margaret, 18
Libya, 90, 237241
Licklider, Roy, 193
Lijphart, Arend, 152
Linton, April, 57
literacy
nation-states, global proliferation of, 76,
7778, 90, 97
sources for dataset, 241248
Louis XIV, 114
Luard, Evan, 109
Macedonian syndrome, 203
Maddison, Angus, 130, 259
Malaysia, 32, 90, 237241

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324
Mann, Michael, 7677
Mansfield, Edward D., 131, 139
Maoz, Zeev, 26
Marx, Karl, 68, 72
masses, the
as actors in the formal model, 4345
cultural similarity, 6567
data used for empirical calibration of the
formal model, 5559
hypotheses tested with the formal model,
5355
modeling strategy, 4041
negotiation process, 1720, 5153, 6165,
230232
results of the formal model, 5961
Matthews, George T., 210
Mearsheimer, John J., 26
Mexico
ethnic conflict, 148, 149
exclusion based on ethnicity, 129
nationalism and war, 24
nation-state creation, 106, 237241
power sharing and inclusion, 191192
results from the ethnic conflict models, 171172
Zapatista uprising, 1011, 148, 149
Meyer, John, 21, 75, 7879
Miceli, Thomas J., 212213
military strength, and the probability of civil
and interstate war, 132, 135136, 140, 141, 145
military personnel variable in statistical
models, 259
nation-states, success of, 7980
military support
data used for empirical calibration of the
formal model, 57, 213218
France, 68, 213216, 230
negotiation process, role in, 6162, 6465, 230
Ottoman empire, 216218, 230
populist nationalism, 71
Miller, Benjamin, 2627
Min, Brian, 8, 86, 92, 156
Minorities at Risk (MAR) dataset, 144, 147148,
155, 158
minority rights, war prevention role, 175
grievance theories of ethnicity and armed
conflict, 147148
Mitchell, Brian R., 89, 91
model of alliances and identities,
seegame-theoretic exchange model of
alliances and identities
Modelski, George, 130131, 140

Moldova, 87, 237241


Montenegro, 204
Moore, Will H., 118
Morgan, Patrick, 130131, 140
Morocco, 89, 90, 123, 237241
Morris, Max D., 233
mountainous terrain, 163
Mozambique, 90, 237241
Mufti, Malik, 80
Mukherjee, Bumba, 193
Mller, Hans-Peter, 257
Myanmar, 87, 191192, 237241
Napoleon Bonaparte, 68, 79
nation building
as alliance system, 34, 3738, 46, 194196
cultural similarity, 6567, 7172
vs. ethnic closure, 37, 3839, 71
ethnic conflict, 72
France, 6869, 72
future research, 3435
negotiation process leading to, 1820, 6364,
65, 227232
Ottoman empire, 19, 37, 70
results of the formal model, 5961
sensitivity analysis of results, 232236
state centralization, effect of, 37, 3839, 7172
theories of the global proliferation of
nation-states, 7583, seealsonation-states,
emergence of
nation-states
definition, 113114
future of, 203205, seealsonation-states,
emergence of; seealsonation-states, global
proliferation of; seealsonation-states, and
war
nation-states, emergence of
arguments of this study, 15, 3536
dataset compiled for this study, 69, 2426
from empires, 8889, 110, 114, 116121, 124125
future research, 3435
legitimacy, role of, 56, 199
methodology of this study, 911
negotiation of nationhood, 1720
power, role of, 56
summary of this study, 197199
theoretical perspectives of this study, 1117
year of nation-state creation, 255, seealsonation building
nation-states, global proliferation of
global dataset, 8, 7475, 8493

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modeling strategy, 9394
quantitative analyses of, 8283
reasons for, 2022, 7375, 106107
results from the statistical model, 94105
temporal data resolution, 101105
theories of, 7583
wave pattern of, 8991
years of nation-state creation, 237241
nation-states, and war
arguments of this study, 2328, 108, 109113,
114115
conventional studies of war, 108113
dataset compiled for this study, 8, 112, 121125,
250259
formation of nation-states, coincidence with,
2328, 107, 108, 140142
hypotheses in the civil and interstate war
models, 129130
institutional rule, types of, 257
institutionalist argument, 113121
long-term processes, consideration of, 110112
results from the civil and interstate war
models, 132140
temporal patterns, 125129
transition from empire to nation-state, 8889,
110, 114, 116121, 124125
variables in the civil and interstate war
models, 130132, 255259
year of nation-state creation, 255
nationalism
arguments of this study, 15
data on foundation of national organizations,
9495
ethno-nationalism, 24, 2728, 116121
France, 69
global proliferation of nationalism, 8182
legitimacy, role of, 56
negotiation of nationhood, 1720
political modernization theories, 77
and power relations, 56, 8284, 199
and war, 23, 2328, 109110, 116121, 136,
seealsopopulist nationalism
nationhood, negotiation of, 1720, 6364,
227232, seealsonation building;
seealsonation-states, emergence of
natural resources, 161, 163, seealsooil rich
territory
Necker, Jacques, 210, 221
negotiation of alliances, 1720, 5153, 6165,
227232, seealsoalliances
neighboring wars, and civil war, 130, 136137, 139

325
Nepal, 110, 237241
Netherlands, 7980, 237241
New Zealand, 257
Nicaragua, 88, 237241
Nigeria, 87, 147148, 237241, 251
non-ethnic conflict, 265266
non-governmental organizations (NGOs), 195
non-secessionist civil wars, 124, 128129, 252253
Nordlinger, Eric A., 180
Northern Ireland, 148, 149, 171172
Norton, Daniel, 155
oil rich territory
in ethnic conflict models, 161
and the probability of war, 130, 136137, 141
results from the ethnic conflict models, 163,
166, 170, 171
Olzak, Susan, 156
Ottoman empire
actors in the formal model, 44
alliances and identities resulting from the
model, 6768, 7071, 72
contrast to France, 42
control over resources in the empire, 227232
cultural similarity, 50, 6768
data used for empirical calibration of the
formal model, 18, 42, 5559, 207, 212213,
216218, 223
ethnic closure, 19, 37, 70
military support, 216218, 230
nation-state creation, 83, 91, 99
political modernization theories, 77
populist nationalism, 46, 7071
public goods/services provision, 223
taxation, 212213
Pakistan, 237241, 256, 259
Panama, 8788, 158, 237241
Paraguay, 84
Paris, Roland, 192
parliamentarianism, 180183, 185189, 190191
patrimonial empires, 114
peace
achievement of, 3134, 174175
and democracy, 176180
exchange relationships, 34, 194196
and federalism, 180191
inclusion of ethnic groups, 190192
and parliamentarianism, 180191
power sharing, 191
and proportionalism, 180191

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Andreas Wimmer
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326
Peru, 129, 237241
Petersen, Roger D., 201
Poland, 8485, 125, 237241
political alliances, 1113, 201202,
seealsoalliances
political decision-making, 18, 38, 5559, 6364,
71, 111, 157, 207, 230231, 261
political elites, 4041, seealsoelites, the
political instability, 163, 170, 171
political institutions, 3134, seealsoinstitutions
political modernization theory of nation-state
formation, 21, 22, 38, 7677, 9192, 9798
political regimes, 257259
politically relevant ethnic groups, 260261
Polity III dataset, 183189
Polity IV dataset, 257
Pollins, Brian M., 131
population
data sources, 259
in ethnic conflict models, 161
as a measure of state cohesion, 153
and the probability of war, 132, 133, 137, 139140
results from the ethnic conflict models, 163,
167, 170
populist nationalism
as alliance system, 46
conditions leading to, 39, 71
cultural similarity, 6567
France, 46, 68
hypotheses tested with the formal model,
5455
negotiation process leading to, 6465
Ottoman empire, 46, 7071
results of the formal model, 5961
sensitivity analysis of results, 232236
Portugal, 99, 237241
Posen, Barry, 31
Posner, Daniel, 45
Pouchenot, Marius, 221
power, 56, 1517, 199, 201202, 261263
power-configurational theory of nation-state
formation, 7982, 9293, 99101, 106
power configurations
configurational analysis, 167172
configurational theory, 149156
and conflict, 1517, 2831, 143144
EPR dataset, 156160
research on ethnic diversity and war, 145149
results from the ethnic conflict models,
161172
variables in the ethnic conflict models, 160161

power sharing
Bosnia, 171
between ethnic elites, 144
inclusion of ethnic groups, 191
and rebellions, 154
regime types, 262, 263265
results from the ethnic conflict models, 163,
166170, 172
and war, 152, 191
proportionalism, 180183, 185189, 190191
public goods/services provision
data used for empirical calibration of the
formal model, 5559, 218
France, 69
Ottoman empire, 223
role in the negotiation process, 6364, 230
railways, as proxy for industrialization, 89,
9597
rebellions
and economic development, 154
ethnic conflict, types of, 151
and ethnic exclusion, 151152, 154
feasibility of, 145
and federalism, 185189
and parliamentarianism, 185189
and proportionalism, 185189
results from the ethnic conflict models, 167172
Regan, Patrick, 155
religion, 106
resources
exchange of, 4649
nation building and ethnic closure, 1720, 3738
and political alliances, 1213
and power configurations, 1516
Reynal-Querol, Marta, 184
Reynolds, Andrew, 183
Rhodesia, 152, 191
Richardson, Lewis Frey, 123, 250
Rigaudire, Albert, 209, 220
rivalry theory, 140
Roeder, Philip G., 83, 97, 180, 188
Ross, Michael, 161
Russia, 106, 237241, 251252
Rwanda, 152, 179, 194, 237241
Saideman, Stephen M., 155, 176, 185
Saliba, Najib E., 227
Sambanis, Nicholas, 120, 123, 146, 160161,
162163, 166
Schneider, Gerald, 176, 183, 184

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Andreas Wimmer
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secessionist wars
Bosnia, 171
ethnic conflict, type of, 151
and federalism, 189n.18, 296
legitimacy and, 152153
nation-states, emergence of, 126127
Northern Ireland, 171
proportional systems of representation, 185
reasons for, 136
results from the ethnic conflict models,
167172
and state cohesion, 153, 154
temporal patterns of, 127
types of wars, 124, 252253, 266
sensitivity analysis of the formal model, 232236
separatist wars, 266
Serman, William, 215216
Shaw, Stanford, 213, 224, 226
Sierra Leone, 87, 237241
Skocpol, Theda, 21, 81, 100
Slovakia, 90, 237241, 259
Smith, Anthony, 106, 203
Snyder, Jack, 131, 139
South Africa, 3334, 90, 147, 191, 237241
Southern Sudan, 85, 204
sovereignty, 86
Soviet Union, 85, 87, 95, 104105, 113
Spain, 9597, 101, 113, 237241
standard game theory, 40
state centralization
cultural similarity, 6567
data used for empirical calibration, 5559
ethnic politics and war, 2829
hypotheses tested with the formal model,
5355
nation building and ethnic closure, effect
upon, 1820, 37, 3839, 7172
nation building negotiation, 6364
political modernization theories, 7677
results of the formal model, 5961, 7172
sensitivity analysis of results, 232236
state/citizen relationship, 34, 194196
state cohesion
and exclusion, 154
Mexico, 171172
propensity to ethnic conflict, 153
results from the ethnic conflict models, 163,
166167, 172
states
political shape, beginning of 19th century, 1
political shape, contemporary, 2

327
size of, 153, 154, 163
weakness of, 144
Strand, Hvard, 184
Strang, David, 8283, 94, 9899, 127
Sudan, 24, 237241
Suriname, 87, 237241
Swann, Julian, 210
Sweden, 106, 237241
Switzerland
EPR dataset, 158
nationalism and war, 24
nation-state creation, 78, 83, 87, 117, 237241
non-ethnic party system, 32
power-sharing regime, 262
relationship between state and citizens, 194
Syria, 29, 237241
Tajikistan, 90, 237241
Tanzania, 194, 200, 237241
taxation
data used for empirical calibration of the
formal model, 5559, 207213
in the empire scenario, 230231
France, 56n.28, 58, 207, 212229
Ottoman empire, 212213
territorial boundaries of states, 153
Thacker, Strom, 177, 183189
Thailand, 78, 106, 110, 117, 237241
Tilly, Charles, 34, 21, 43, 54, 65, 7677, 91, 9798
Toft, Monica, 192193
tribal confederacies, 114
Tsebelis, George, 152
Turkey, 237241, 251252, 259
Uganda, 237241, 251
Ukraine, 87, 237241
United Nations (UN), 195196, 204
United States (US)
discriminated ethnic groups, 262
EPR dataset, 158
federal spending to diffuse ethnic conflict,
154
international power, 7980
nationalism and war, 24
nation-state creation, 4, 83, 106, 113114, 237241
war prevention, role in, 174
westward expansion, 118
Uzbekistan, 90, 237241
Vanhanen, Tatu, 145146
Varshney, Ashutosh, 54

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Andreas Wimmer
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328
Venezuela, 8788, 237241
veto-player argument, 152
Vietnam, 24, 78, 85, 90, 237241, 256
violence, use of, 3334, seealsowar
voluntary organizations
cultural similarity, 65, 66
ethnic inequality resulting in war, 144
France, 68
hypotheses tested with the formal model, 54
nation building, 37, 38, 7172
nationhood, negotiation of, 19
Ottoman empire, 68
Walter, Barbara, 155
waqfs, 224225
war, seealsocivil war; interstate war; ethnic
conflict; secessionist war
arguments of this study, 15, 6, 3536, 108,
109113, 114115
classification of wars, 124, 252253
coding in the EPR dataset, 265266
configurational theory of ethnic politics and
conflict, 149156
conventional studies of, 108113
dataset compiled for this study, 69, 112,
121125, 250259
and democracy, 3233, 111, 131132, 136137, 139,
141, 175, 176180
and economic development, 130, 133, 137, 140
empires, role of, 12, 27, 115116, 121125, 141
EPR dataset, 8, 2931, 144, 146147, 156160,
191, 260
and ethnic politics, 2731, 143144, 172173
and ethno-nationalism, 24, 2728, 116121
exchange relationships, 34, 194196
and federalism, 175, 180191
hypotheses in the civil and interstate war
models, 132135
inclusion of ethnic groups, 190192
institutionalist argument, 113121
and legitimacy, 56, 2328, 115, 120, 131132, 141,
152153, 199
long-term processes, consideration of, 110112
methodology of this study, 911
nationalism, role of, 23, 2328, 109110,
116121, 136
and nation-state creation, 2328, 107, 108,
140142

nation-state proliferation, 92, 100101


oil rich territory, 130, 136137, 141
and parliamentarianism, 180191
politicization of ethnicity, 201202
and population, 132, 133, 137, 139140
power, role of, 56
power configurations, 1517, 2831,
143144
power sharing, 152, 191
prevention of, 3134, 174175
and proportionalism, 180191
results from the civil and interstate war
models, 132140
research on ethnic diversity and war, 145149,
155156
results from the ethnic conflict models,
161172
summary of this study, 198199
temporal patterns, 125129
theoretical perspectives of this study, 1117
theories of ethnic conflict, 154155
transformation to empire, 115116, 121125
transformation to nation-state from empire,
27, 116125
variables in the civil and interstate war
models, 130132, 255259
variables in the ethnic conflict models,
160161
wars of conquest, 124, 127
Weber, Eugene, 19
Weber, Max, 17
Weiner, Myron, 203
Wiesehomeier, Nina, 176, 183, 184
Wimmer, Andreas, 8, 54, 86, 92, 156
World Bank, 195196, 204
World Bank dataset, 177, 183189
world polity theory of nation-state formation,
21, 22, 7879, 94, 9899
World War I, 9, 100, 102
World War II, 253
Yeltsin, Boris, 105
Yemen, 106, 237241, 256
Yugoslavia, 77, 85, 8788, 95, 106, 237241
Yksel, Hasan, 225
Zimbabwe, 90, 237241, 256
Zrcher, Eric-Jan, 217

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