The mathematical model of bulk carriers based on the

new specification of IMO

Liu yang1Zhang Ming-xia1Zhao Yu-hao2
School of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Dalian University of Technology1, Dalian
116023,China; School of Economy, Nankai University2, Tianjin 300071, China
[Abstract]: With the gradual changes of the IMO rules in recent 10 years, in this paper, it collects
the data of the reference ships from papers and journals, which are used in designs and
researches of bulk carriers, and establishes the mathematical model of the principle dimension
for bulk carriers through the regression formula. The model can be used in the optimization
design of the form and coefficient of bulk carriers, based on the new IMO specification, as well as
the cost estimate and the economic evaluation. Its consultable in the selection of the design
projects.
[Key words]: bulk carriers; principle dimension; mathematical model; new IMO rule

1. Introduction
After the appearance of the first bulk carrier in 1950s, the number of this kind of ships keeps
increasing. In terms of international marine trade, bulk carrier makes up over 30 percent of the
sea freight in total [1]. So bulk carriers play a significant part in trade over the sea.
Ship design institutes always have regression equations of the dimensions of bulk carriers, as they
are helpful in the conceptual design process. Mostly, the regression equations are got from the
regressive statistic of the previous built ships. Nowadays, however, for it always includes the data
of the ships built before the year 2000 [2], which are not constructed under the new specification
of IMO (International Maritime Organization), it isnt applicable to the design of the ships after
2000. Meanwhile, considering several changes of the specification have been made in recent
years [3], from 2001 to 2010, merely containing the data of the ships under construction and
operation will also result in a bad accuracy in the regression equation, for the change of the IMO
specification have a big effect on the molded dimensions and the structure of the bulk carriers.
In order to provide the design of bulk carriers under new IMO specification with basis and
reference, in this paper, it comes up with a regressive mathematical model based on the data of
newly designed ships, all of which are appeared only in recent published papers, from 2002 to
2012. The model is applicable in the design and optimization of bulk carriers based on the new
specifications of IMO. It can also guide the techno-economic verification of the ship. Knowing the
deadweight of the expected bulk carrier, the design department can estimate the molded
dimensions and reckon the total cost of the construction through this regressive model, providing
reference for the initial design of the bulk carrier.

2. Data and Applied range

From the distribution of the bulk carriers deadweight in 2002 [4] (in Figure 1.), we can find the
main trend of the bulk carriers are the ones with deadweight from 10,000 tonnages to 100,000

tonnages. Meanwhile, in most of the papers, the exemplified bulk carriers used in research are
always with deadweight from 10,000 tonnages to 115,000 tonnages. In order to illustrate the
regressive method, here we use the data of the bulk carriers from 10,000 tonnages to 115,000
tonnages. As a consequence, the mathematical model based on those data is also applicable to
the design of the bulk carriers with deadweight in the aforesaid range.

Figure 1. Distribution of the bulk carriers deadweight in 2002 [4]

The fitted values in the regressive equation include the molded dimensions of the bulk carriers
(mainly the dimensions with relative small changes) as following: Length between perpendiculars
( ), breadth (B), depth (D), draught (t) and deadweight (DWT).

3. Mathematical Modeling of Principal Dimensions

In this paper, it collects data from papers published from 2002 to 2012, which are related
with research of bulk carriers. And the single variable mathematical model is based on the
statistic result of the foregoing data.
The procedure of modeling is as follows: With the economic modeling method always
applied in econometrics, at first we should put all the collected data into a table and compare the
data with each other. Then we shall eliminate the obviously unreasonable data. Referring to
other empirical formulas, we can get the scatter diagram by some software and define the
expression of the mathematical model. Finally, after the selection of the regressive method
among all the existed scientific and mathematical methods, we can build regressive model and
then verify the consequence [4].
In this paper we use the software Minitab 16 to build the mathematical model. This
software is widely applied in quality management and statistics. Compared with the popular
statistics software Excel, it is more capable of regression with small samples, accurate and of
great regressive significance, as well. As a result, it is also widely used in economics, management,
etc.
Here we take the model of length between perpendiculars ( ) changing with
deadweight(DWT) for example to explain the procedure of the modeling.
For the order of magnitudes of deadweight is far more large than that of the length
between perpendiculars, which has a bad effect on the selection of the regressive equation, we
take the logarithm of the deadweight to create a new variable: ln(DWT). Considering the existed
mode of regressive equations, we try to research fitting in all the appropriate ones, including
liner regressive equation, regressive equations of exponents, logarithmic regressive equation and
polynomial regressive equation, and then choose the regressive model with the largest

coefficient of association (

). As a result, we get the following regressive model:

(
)
(
)

In the equation, the standard deviation is S = 7.54816the coefficient of association is

93.8%. In the following equations, S and

are with same meaning.

is length between perpendiculars with the unit meter(m). DWT is deadweight with the unit
tonnage (t).
Then we do the F-test to the result, in which it will test the regressive significance of the entire
model. The result is shown in Table 1.
Table 1. Data and Result in F-test
DOF
SS
MS

Origin
Regression
Error
Total

3
53
56

48533.8
3019.7
51553.4

16177.9
57.0

F
283.95

P
0.000

NoteThe data in the table is the separation of the total sum of squares and the final result.
Regression is the calculative process of the sum of squares from regression (RSS). Error is the
calculative process of the sum of squares from error (ESS). Total is the calculative process of
the total sum of squares (TSS). The relationship between RSS, ESS and TSS is
.
In the table, SS is sum of squares, MS is mean square, DOF is degree of freedom. M
/DOF.
F is the statistic quantity of sample. P is the confidence level from calculation. When the quantity
of P is below 0.05, the statistic result is of good regressive significance, and can be reserved.
Then we continue with T-test. The result can be referred to in Table 2. We can find that the
confidence level P is far more less than 0.05. As a result, we think the model can explain the
relation between these two variables.

Origin
Liner
Quadratic
Cubic

Table 2 Data and Result in T-test

DOF
SS
F

1
1
1

46813.0
749.9
970.8

543.15
10.15
17.04

P
0.000
0.002
0.000

NoteT-test is the test of the regressive significance for single explanatory variable. If the
regression coefficient cant pass the T-test, the related regression coefficient should be rejected
from the model. The data in the table is the test process of each explanatory variable in the
fitting formula. Liner is the test of ln(DWT). Quadratic is the test of (
the test of (

)) . Cubic is

)) . In the table, SS is the sum of squares, F is the statistic quantity of

sample. P is the confidence level from calculation. When the quantity of P is below 0.05, the
statistic result is of good regressive significance, and can be reserved. We can find that the

confidence level P of each power of the single variable is far more less than 0.05. As a result, we
think the model is precise.
Figure 2 is the scatter diagram of

and

Figure 2Scatter diagram of

. Figure is the Fitting graph of DWT and

and

Figure 3 Fitting graph of DWT and

4. Fitting graph of principal dimensions and the mathematical models
1Regressive model of length between perpendiculars ( ) and deadweight(DWT).

S = 7.54816
= 93.8%
is length between perpendiculars with the unit meter(m). DWT is deadweight with the unit
tonnage (t).

Figure 4. Fitting graph of DWT and

2Regressive model of breadth(B) and deadweight(DWT)
(
S = 1.63876

= 91.6%

B is breadth with the unit meter(m).

Figure 5. Fitting graph of DWT and B

(3)Regressive model of depth(D) and deadweight(DWT).

D
S = 0.563500

= 96.6%

D is depth with unit meter(m).

Figure 6. Fitting graph of DWT and D

(4) Regressive model of draught(T) and deadweight(DWT).
S = 0.664311
= 85.2%
T is draught with the unit meter(m).

Figure 7. Fitting graph of DWT and T

5. Verification of the regressive model based on data of real ships
Based on the applicant range of this model, we can verify it with the data of the bulk carriers
newly built between 2002 and 2012. Meanwhile, we also regard the regressive model in paper [4]
as a contrast.
Here we use the data from seven bulk carriers to verify the equation and compare with the
equation from paper [4]. The result is shown in Table 3. In the table, Real Ship Data is the data
of the referenced bulk carrier [5-8]. Calculated Data is the calculated result by the equation in
the paper. Contrasting Data is the calculated result by the equation in paper *4+.
The regressive equations in paper [4] are shown as following:
D

Table 3. Comparison between calculated result and the real data

Ship
Delivery
Date

2006

2007

2010

2010

Name

SILVER
PHOENIX

CORONA

H2451

Guo Tou
001

Principal
Dimension
Real Ship
Data
Calculated
Data
Contrasting
Data
Real Ship
Data
Calculated
Data
Contrasting
Data
Real Ship
Data
Calculated
Data
Contrasting
Data
Real Ship
Data
Calculated
Data

DWT/t

/m

B/m

D/m

T/m

87337

217.00

32.26

19.60

12.50

87337

225.11

36.53

20.01

12.80

87337

230.98

35.16

20.25

14.61

74000

217.00

32.26

19.20

12.50

74000

211.62

34.72

19.07

12.37

74000

220.00

33.38

19.31

13.89

75700

217.00

32.26

19.60

12.20

75700

213.31

34.96

19.20

12.43

75700

221.51

33.62

19.44

13.99

57000

189.99

32.56

18.00

12.80

57000

195.28

32.03

17.64

11.69

2011

2011

2011

GRAND
THALIA

ABDALA

Hua Heng
167 #

Contrasting
Data
Real Ship
Data
Calculated
Data
Contrasting
Data
Real Ship
Data
Calculated
Data
Contrasting
Data
Real Ship
Data
Calculated
Data
Contrasting
Data

57000

202.70

30.94

17.83

12.76

115000

249.80

43.00

20.80

12.20

115000

254.34

39.70

21.63

13.52

115000

249.22

38.49

21.81

15.80

35000

171.50

28.40

15.00

10.00

35000

175.05

27.49

15.17

10.42

35000

170.38

27.45

15.06

10.65

45000

192.00

32.26

15.40

10.20

45000

184.32

29.75

16.41

11.08

45000

187.04

29.09

16.49

11.74

As a consequence, the error of the calculation result from the model is small, and the accuracy of
the model is relatively better than the mathematical model in contrast. In a conclusion, the
regressive model in this paper can be used in the optimization of the principal dimensions of the
bulk carriers built under new IMO specification, as well as the techno-economic verification.
6. Conclusion
In this paper, it collects data of the molded dimensions of bulk carriers used in design and
research in recent ten years, and build a mathematical model of principal dimensions of bulk
carriers, under new IMO specifications. According to real ship dimensional data built in recent
years and the comparison of other regression equations, we find that the mathematical model of
principle dimensions of recent designed bulk carriers put forward in this paper is reliable. In this
model, we can get an relatively accurate principal dimensions after the definition of the bulk
carriers deadweight. It provides reference for the initial design, cost estimate, ship coefficient
optimization and techno-economic verification of the bulk carriers with deadweight from 10,000
tonnage to 115,000 tonnage.
Reference
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[3] Aiping Chen. General introduction of the 87th session of the IMO Marine Safety
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