27/7/2016

AACEInternationalMeetings/ConferencesAnnualMeeting2016AnnualMeetingTechnicalProgramAbstractsDECISIONANDRISKMANAG
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DECISIONANDRISKMANAGEMENT(RISK)
Meetings/Conferences>AnnualMeeting >2016AM>TechnicalProgram>Abstracts

(RISK2130)AnIntroductionto77R15:QualityControl/QualityAssuranceforRiskManagement
PrimaryAuthor:MrDavidCBradyPEngDRMPDBradyRiskAssociatesLtd
CoAuthor(s):DrAlexiaANalewaikCCPQSRequinCorporation
Time/Location:TUE8:009:00/Birchwood(MezzanineLevel)

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HaveyoueverhadseniormanagementaskquestionssimilartoHowdoIknowourriskprogramisworking?Isitimproving?Howhave
youanswered?
ThenewRecommendPractice77R15isguidedbytheviewofqualityimprovementasdocumentedinTCMSection11.4:InJuransview,
planningandquality management must be guided by a breakthrough way of thinking. Quality improvement should emphasize not just
traditionalcontinuousimprovement,butalso breakthrough changes, which are a dynamic, decisive movement to new, higher levels of
performance.
ThispresentationisasynopsisofhowRiskManagementQA/QCisthistypeofbreakthroughthinking.77R15canbeusedonyourproject
orprogram,regardlessofthesizeandcomplexity,byprovidingQA/QCideastoallowyoutodevelopyourownRiskQA/QCprogram.
Ideally,theriskmanagementprocessesprovideopportunitiesforallstakeholdersandcontractingpartiestoworktogetherandmanage
risk(i.e.threatsoropportunities)inawaythatincreasestheprobabilityofsuccessofthe program or project. 77R15 is one of those
processes.
(RISK2142)TheMonteCarloMethodforModeling&MitigatingSystemicRisk
PrimaryAuthor:DrDavidT.HulettHulett&Associates,LLC
CoAuthor(s):MrWaylonTWhiteheadConocoPhillips
Time/Location:TUE2:003:00/Birchwood(MezzanineLevel)
AnumberofreferenceshavebeenmadeaboutthesupposedinabilityofMonteCarlo simulation (MCS) methods to represent systemic
riskstoprojectcostandschedule.ThebottomupapproachofdatacollectioninsomeMCSbasedanalysesdoesnotincorporatesystemic
risks this is problematic given the large overruns in schedule and cost that can occur on megaprojects partially as a result of these
risks.
Systemic risks can relate to the level of new technology, degree of project definition, project complexity, project size and the
organizations ability to manage large projects. Systemic risks interact with stress factors such as aggressiveness of requirements,
stakeholder mismanagement and lack of clarity in decision making. Together these explain why some megaprojects exhibit serious
overruns.
This paper combines typical MCS methods used to measure uncertainty and capture the effects of projectspecific risks, but it goes
farther.UsingMCS,italsoaccountsforsystemicrisks,andshowsthesuitabilityoftheusingtheRiskDriversMethodologyforprioritizing
risksformitigation,andunderstandingwhenmitigationsmustbeginandconcludeforoptimumimpact.
(RISK2196)RemovingtheEarlyDatesBiasinCPMRiskAnalysis
PrimaryAuthor:DrGuiPoncedeLeonPEPMAConsultants,LLC
CoAuthor(s):DrVivekPuriPMAConsultants,LLC
Time/Location:TUE11:0012:00/Birchwood(MezzanineLevel)
TheCriticalPathMethod(CPM)schedulesactivitiestostartonearlydates,whichresultsinanunrealisticcompletiondistributioninCPM
riskanalysis.CPMriskanalysistools,thus,cannotmodelwhatcommonlyoccurswhenaprojectunfoldsandactivitiesstartondateslater
than early dates due to floating or pacing decisions based on schedule progress. Graphical Path Method (GPM) risk analysis allows
activities in each realization to float as a function of random sampling and decision rules, accurately modeling the real world where
activitiesaredelayedtotakeadvantageoftotalfloat.ThispaperdemonstrateshowtheearlybiasinCPMriskanalysisleadstooptimistic
completiondistributions,andhowGPMriskanalysiscorrectsfortheearlybiasbyallowingfloatingandpacingscenarios.Anovelapproach
isalsointroducedfordevelopingaboundingcompletiondistributionenvelopeforselectingrealisticprobabilisticcompletiondatesandfor
monitoringsafefloatuseastheprojectprogresses.
(RISK2238)RiskMitigationinEPCProjectsofFossilFuelPowerPlants
PrimaryAuthor:EngPaulAlexanderVillanuevaPEGyMSA
CoAuthor(s):Sr.JeancarloDuranMaicaCCPEVPAnsaldo
Time/Location:TUE5:006:00/WillowCentre/West(MezzanineLevel)

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27/7/2016

AACEInternationalMeetings/ConferencesAnnualMeeting2016AnnualMeetingTechnicalProgramAbstractsDECISIONANDRISKMANAG

ThispaperispartofaneffortperformedinanEPCProjectforaFossilfuelpower plant EPC Project located in Chiclayo, Peru. It arises

becauseoftheneedtoestimatetheCommercialOperationDate(COD)oftheprojectinaconsistentway,afterseveralcasesofsupplies
latecomerstothesiteandthepoorreliabilityinproductionratesfromsubcontractors.Thepaperobjectiveistoshowawellorganized
andpracticaldecisionmakingprocesstotreatrisksrelatedtotheexecutiontimeofaFossilfuelpowerplantEPCProject.Thismethod
has as a fundamental first step, the deep understanding of the project functionality in order to define a planning that integrates work
breakdownstructure(WBS)withTurnoverpackages(TOPs),whosebootsequencingdeterminestheFirstFiredateofthepowerplant.
(RISK2249)PracticalIntegrationofRiskManagementandQualityManagementProcesses
PrimaryAuthor:MrDavidANorfleetCCPCFCCDRMPHNTBCorporation
Time/Location:TUE9:4510:45/Birchwood(MezzanineLevel)
Ensuringtheoutputmeetsanacceptablelevel,i.e.detecting,preventing,andcorrectingunwantedoutcomes,isanintegralpartofquality
management.Itfocusestowardfailuretoachieveobjectives.Riskmanagementistheprocessofidentifying, assessing, and mitigating
potentialsourcesoffailuretoachieveobjectives.Riskmanagementisconcernedwiththeeffectofuncertaintyanditsfocusisnotonthe
objectives,butontheriskofachievingthoseobjectives.
TheProjectManagementTriangle(IronTriangle)isamodelofscope,time,andcost,wherescopeisofteninterchangeablewithquality.It
graphicallyillustratesthatsuccessismeasuredbymanagementsabilitytomeetexpectedobjectiveswhilemanagingtimeandcost.Risk
managementmeasurestheeffectofuncertaintyusingtimeandcost.Qualitymanagementcanplayanintegralroleinthatprocess.This
rolecanbereversedwithqualitymanagementbeingtherecipient.
The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) intends to explicitly integrate the commonality within risk management and
qualitymanagementprocessesthroughISO90012015.Thispaperwillpresentpracticalwayssuchintegrationmaybeaccomplished.
(RISK2342)(MockWorkshop)AnInterviewingandRiskAnalysisProcessforaRiskWorkshop
PrimaryAuthor:DrDavidT.HulettHulett&Associates,LLC
CoAuthor(s):MrEricHoARCADISMrChristopherWCarsonFAACECEPDRMPPSPARCADISMrDavidCBradyPEngDRMPDBradyRisk
AssociatesLtd
Time/Location:TUE3:456:00/Birchwood(MezzanineLevel)
The industry has accepted the value of integrated cost and schedule risk workshops as a useful method of identifying, analyzing and
mitigatingrisks,butmanytimesthedevelopmentoftheriskregisterstartsintheworkshopitself.This can lead to an incomplete risk
register, or a process that is shortchanged and doesnt provide as much value as possible. There are a number of concerns about
attemptingtodevelopacompleteandobjectiveriskregisterwithoutallowingbiasestocontrolthefinallist.
Thebestapproachtodevelopingariskregisterwhileminimizingbiasistoimplementindividualinterviewsbeforehand.Thissessionwill
provideamockriskinterviewinthefirsthourtodemonstratehowaprofessionalhandlestheinterviewing,basedonyearsofextensive
experienceandsuccessfuloutcomes.
Thesecondhourwillincludeamockriskidentificationandqualitativeriskanalysissessionwhichwillproducetheprioritizedriskregister.

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