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GeoFlorida 2010: Advances in Analysis, Modeling & Design

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Probabilistic analysis of slope stability of earth dams during rainfall infiltration


Qun Chen1 and Min Tang2
1

State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, College of


Hydraulic and Hydropower Engrg., Sichuan Univ., Chengdu, Sichuan, 610065,
China; PH (8628) 85403351; email: chenqun@scu.edu.cn.
2
Guodian Dadu River Zhentou Dam Hydropower Construction Co. Ltd, Leshan City,
Sichuan, 614700, China; PH (86833) 2718359; email: tangmee@gmail.com.
ABSTRACT
Rainfall infiltration affects the stability of dam slopes significantly. This
paper studies the changes in the instability probability and the factor of safety of
earth dam slopes during rainfall with different patterns. The influences of the
maximum intensity, duration and total precipitation of the rainfall on the instability
probability and the factor of safety are investigated. The results show that the
instability probability of the dam slope increases at first and reaches a maximum
value after some time then decreases with time. Generally, the instability probability
increases with the increase in the maximum intensity, the duration and the total
precipitation of the rainfall. These analyses provide some references for the dam
safety evaluation considering rainfall infiltration.
Keywords: dam slope, instability probability, factor of safety, rainfall infiltration
INTRODUCTION
At present, the impact of rainfall infiltration on the earth dam slope stability
is not considered for the safety evaluation of embankment dams in China. However,
because the dam slope, especially the downstream dam slope is permeable, rainfall
infiltration may greatly affect the strength of the dam soil, and further affect the dam
slope stability. The strength parameters of the dam soils are variable and uncertain
and the conventional factor of safety cannot explicitly address the uncertainties, thus
probabilistic methods are rational means to incorporate uncertainties into the
evaluation of dam safety.
The risk and probabilistic methods have been used for the analysis of slope
stability for many years (Alonso 1976; Bergadon and Anderson 1985; Li and Lumb
1987; Christian et al. 1994; Gui et al. 2000; El-Ramly et al. 2002). In recent years,
some researchers started to use probabilistic methods to analyze dam slope stability.
The reliability and probability theories were developed for assessing the reliability
index and the corresponding probability of failure of multi-layered embankment
dams and slopes (Liang et al 1999). The reliability of high earth-rock filled dams on
complex foundations was studied using the Monte-Carlo method (Zhou et al. 1998).
Impact of the statistical characteristic variables of shear strength parameters on the

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reliability index (Luan et al. 2004) and instability probability (Chen et al. 2008) of
the dam slope were investigated.
Base on the investigation of practical rainfall processes, this paper studies the
changes in the instability probability and the factor of safety of an embankment dam
slope during rainfall with different patterns. The influences of the maximum intensity,
duration and total precipitation of the rainfall on the instability probability and the
factor of safety are investigated.
ANALYSIS METHOD
In this paper, the seepage field of rainfall infiltration into the dam has been
firstly calculated using the saturate-unsaturated seepage theory. Then the stability
with probabilistic analysis has been conducted. The critical slip surface is first
determined based on the mean values of the input parameters using a limit
equilibrium method. Probabilistic analysis is then performed on the critical slip
surface, considering the variability of the input parameters using the Monte-Carlo
method, and finally the instability probability of the dam slope is calculated.
Analysis of transient seepage caused by rainfall infiltration
The seepage analysis software SEEP/W (Geo-Slope International Ltd. 2007a)
is used to study the transient seepage and the wetting front advancing in the dam
slope. Seepage flows in saturated and unsaturated soils are governed by Darcys law.
The coefficient of permeability in an unsaturated soil is not a constant but a function
of the degree of saturation or soil suction. The general two-dimensional governing
differential equation for water flow through soil is as follows (Lam et al. 1987):
h
h h
= w w
kx
+ k y
x x y y
t

(1)

where, kx and ky are the coefficients of permeability in the x-direction and y-direction,
respectively; w is the unit weight of water; w is the volumetric water content; is
the soil suction; and t is the time. According to the equation, a soil-water
characteristic curve, which is a relationship between the volumetric water content
and the soil suction, as well as a permeability function, must be known for transient
seepage analyses.
Shear strength of unsaturated soil
The software SLOPE/W (Geo-Slope International Ltd. 2007b) that adopts
limit equilibrium methods for slope stability analysis is used to assess the stability
including instability probability for dam slope during rainfall infiltration. Bishops
analysis method (Bishop and Morgenstern 1960) is selected. The shear strength of
soil is described by the extended Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion for unsaturated
soils as follows (Fredlund et al. 1978):

f = c + ( n u a ) f tan + (u a u w ) f tan b

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where, n is the normal stress; ua and uw are the pore-air pressure and the pore-water
pressure, respectively; c and are the effective cohesion and effective friction angle,
respectively; b is a friction angle that represents the shear strength related to the soil
suction (ua-uw).
Monte-Carlo sampling method
A random number generation function to do the random sampling is used in
the Monte-Carlo method in SLOPE/W (Geo-Slope International Ltd. 2007b). Each
random number N has the same distribution as the input parameter. Then the
parameter P needed for every deterministic analysis can be calculated by the
following formula:

P = + N

(3)

where, is the mean value and is the standard deviation of the parameter. The
effective cohesion, c, effective internal friction angle, , and friction angle, b, are
considered as random variables in the probability analysis and can be calculated
using Equation (3).
Theoretically, for the Monte-Carlo method, the more trial runs used in an
analysis the more accurate the solution will be, whereas the more computing time is
needed. In practical analysis, the trial test can be used to determine the trial number,
that is, several analyses for the same case using certain trials can be conducted and
the trial number would suffice if the discrepancy of the results between the several
analyses can be accepted.
Calculation of the instability probability
The probability of instability is the probability of obtaining a factor of safety
less than 1.0. It is computed by integrating the area under the probability density
function for factors of safety less than 1.0. In numerical analysis, it can be calculated
by the following formula:

Pf = n f / n

(4)

where, nf is the number of analyses with the factor of safety less than 1.0; n is the
trial number, which is 500000 in this study.
RAINFALL PROCESS FOR ANALYSIS
Based on the rainfall computation results of a city in Sichuan Province
according to Handbook of Rainstorm and Flood Computation for Middle and Small
Drainage Areas in Sichuan Province (Office of Water Conservancy and Electric
Power of Sichuan Province 1984), the basic rainfall process with 100-year return
period (frequency F = 1%) and 24-hour duration was designed as shown in Figure
1(a). Its maximum intensity is at the middle of the duration. In order to study the
influence of the intensity and precipitation of the rainfall, two other rainfall processes

GeoFlorida 2010

GeoFlorida 2010: Advances in Analysis, Modeling & Design


(GSP 199) 2010 ASCE

2025

F=0.1%
F=1%
F=10%

40
30
20
10
0
2

Rainfall intensiry q (mm/h)

Rainfall intensiry q (mm/h)

60

80
70
60
50

D=24h
D=12h
D=36h

50
40
30
20
10
0

8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Time t (h)

70

Ante-peak

60

Middle peak

Rear peak

50
40
30
20
10
0
0

12

16 20 24
Time t (h)

28

32

36

(b) Different durations


Rainfall intensiry q (mm/h)

(a) Different return periods


Rainfall intensiry q (mm/h)

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with 10-year and 1000-year return periods (frequency F = 0.1% and 10%) were also
calculated using proportioned method (also shown in Figure 1(a)).

80
70
60
50
40
30
20

Moderate
Tall and thin
Short and fat

10
0

8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Time t (h)

8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Time t (h)

(c) Different peak times


(d) Different shape
Figure 1. Rainfall processes used in analyses
Two rainfall processes with different durations and the same maximum
intensity were designed to investigate the influence of the duration and precipitation
on the instability probability of dam slope as shown in Figure 1(b). Another two
rainfall processes with different peak times and the same total precipitation (shown
in Figure 1(c)) were designed to study the influence of early or late intensity peak.
The other two rainfall processes with different shapes and total precipitation used to
investigate the influence of the shape of rainfall process curve are shown in Figure
1(d).
ANALYSIS CASES AND PARAMETERS
The profile of a 20 m high earth dam with a clay core (shown in Figure 2)
was designed to conduct transient infiltration analysis for all the rainfall patterns in
Figure 1. The core and shell material of the dam are clay and fine sand, respectively.
The slope stability analyses with probabilistic computation were performed during
and after the rainfall period. The analyses focus on the downstream slope because it
is usually unsaturated and more easily affected by rainfall infiltration.
Four analysis groups corresponding to the different patterns of rainfall in
Figure 1 were designed to investigate the influence of the intensity, the duration, the

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location of intensity peak and the shape of the rainfall process curves on the
instability probability and the factor of safety of the downstream slope. In each
analysis group, there are three analysis cases including a basic case and two varied
cases as listed in Table 1.
In this study, the initial state is corresponding to the steady seepage state that
the upstream water level is 18 m. The boundary conditions for the seepage analyses
are also shown in Figure 2 and applied to all analysis cases. Each rainfall process is
considered as a unit flux boundary given by a rainfall infiltration process function
and applied on the downstream slope surface.
Table 1. Analysis cases and corresponding rainfall parameters
Maximum
Total
Analysis
Duration
Frequency Peak
intensity
precipitation
Shape
cases
(h)
(%)
time
(mm/h)
(mm)
Basic case
52.8
24
298
1
Middle
73.2
413
0.1
Group Case1
24
Middle
I
Case2
34.2
193
10
36
447
Group Case 1
52.8
Middle
II Case 2
12
149
Early
Group Case 1
52.8
24
298
1
III Case 2
Late
77.2
Tall & thin
Group Case 1
24
298
Middle
IV Case 2
30.9
Short& fat
5
Total flux Q=0

he
ota l

ad

1
H=

8m

1: 2

1:

.3

Fine sand

1: 0
.5

18

19

20

Water level

2.5
Clay core

Total flux Q=0

.5
1: 0

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GeoFlorida 2010: Advances in Analysis, Modeling & Design


(GSP 199) 2010 ASCE

1.7

Un
it f
l

Fine sand

ux
fun
cti
on

21.5
85

Figure 2. Profile of a core earth dam used in analyses

The strength and hydraulic properties of the clay and fine sand of the dam
were assumed based on experience. The strength parameters including the friction
angle related to suction were considered as random variables. Their standard
deviations were based on the investigation of strength uncertainty for tens of dam
materials (Chen et al. 2008). The saturated coefficients of permeability, strength
parameters and their standard deviations of the soils are listed in Table 2. The

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GeoFlorida 2010: Advances in Analysis, Modeling & Design


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2027

Table 2. Input parameters in analyses


Effective Internal
Effective
Saturated
Friction angle
Unit
friction angle
coefficients cohesion c
b ()
Dam
weight
(kPa)
()
of
material

permeability
Standard
Standard
Standard
(kN/m3)
Mean
Mean
Mean
(m/d)
deviation
deviation
deviation
Clay
19.2
4.3210-3 28.0
5.6
18.0
1.8
15
1.5
Fine sand 18.5
0.432
5
1
25
2.5
12.5
1.25

Clay
Fine sand

0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.01

1
100
Suction (kPa)

10000

Coefficient of permeability (m/d).

1.E+00

0.4
Volume water content

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soil-water characteristic curves (SWCC) and permeability functions of the clay and
fine sand used in analyses are shown in Figure 3.

Clay
Fine sand

1.E-03
1.E-06
1.E-09
1.E-12
1.E-15
0.01

1
100
Suction (kPa)

10000

(a) Soil-water characteristic curves


(b) Permeability functions
Figure 3. SWCC and permeability functions of the clay and fine sand
RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
Due to the constraint of page limit, the rainfall infiltration processes in dam
are overleapt and only the results of the stability analyses are presented and discussed.
The stability analyses with probabilistic computation were conducted during the
rainfall period and 200 d after it. The analysis results are presented in Figures 4-7. In
these figures, IP and FS denote the instability probability and the factor of safety,
respectively.
Figure 4 shows the changes in instability probability and factor of safety with
time for analysis group I (rainfall process with different frequency). During the
rainfall of 1 d, the instability probabilities for all cases increase with time. After 1 d,
the instability probabilities increase at first and reach the maximum after some time,
then decrease with time. The instability probability increases and the time for
probabilities reaching their maximum reduces with the increase in the return period
of the rainfall. This demonstrates that the instability probabilities increase with the
increase in the rainfall intensity and precipitation during and after the rainfall period.
The instability probabilities reach their maximums early if the rainfall intensity and
precipitation are larger. For all cases in group I and the whole analysis period, the
factor of safety presents opposite change to that of instability probability with time.
Moreover, the maximum instability probability is corresponding to the minimum

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factor of safety. This is because that the Monte-Carlo probabilistic method was
performed on the certain critical slip surface.

1.36

0.12

1.34

0.09

1.32

0.06

1.3

0.03
0

1.28
0

0.25

0.5

0.75

F=0.1%, IP
F=10%, IP
F=1%, FS

1.35

F=1%, IP
F=0.1%, FS 1.3
F=10%, FS

1.25

1.2

1.15

1.1

Factor of safety

0.15

1.38

F=1%, IP
F=0.1%, FS
F=10%, FS

Instability probability (%)

F=0.1%, IP
F=10%, IP
F=1%, FS

Factor of safety

Instability probability (%)

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0.18

1.05

1
0

50

100

150

200

Time t (d)

Time t (d)

(a) During rainfall


(b) After rainfall
Figure 4. Changes in instability probability and factor of safety with time for
analysis group I (different frequency)
The changes in instability probability and factor of safety with time for
analysis group II (rainfall process with different duration and the same maximum
intensity) are shown in Figure 5. During the rainfall, the instability probabilities for
three cases all increase with time. It increases faster in a shorter time if the duration
of the rainfall is shorter. So, the instability probability for the case of rainfall with 0.5
d duration is bigger than those of the other two cases within 0.5 d. However, it
becomes the minimum among the three cases after about 0.65 d. After the rainfall,
the instability probabilities still increase for some time and reach the maximum, then
decrease gradually. The time for the instability probabilities to reach the maximum
after rainfall decreases with the rainfall duration. This indicates that more water will
infiltrate into the dam and cause the suction to decrease faster and more if the rainfall
duration is longer and the precipitation is larger. For all cases in group II, the factors
of safety decrease at first and reach the minimum, and then rise with time. Their
change is opposite to the change of the instability probabilities.
Figure 6 shows the changes in instability probability and factor of safety with
time for analysis group III (rainfall process with different location of the maximum
intensity). During the rainfall of 1 d, the instability probabilities for three cases all
increase with time. The increase rate for the case of ante-peak rainfall is faster at the
beginning and slower at last; on the contrary, for the case of rear peak rainfall it is
slower at first and faster at last. After rainfall, the instability probability for the case
of rear peak rainfall increases fastest and its peak is the highest among the three cases.
However, the instability probability peak for ante-peak rainfall is the lowest. This
illustrates that the instability probability will be larger if the intensity peak is late,
because the rainfall before the peak has caused the suction in the dam slope to
decrease and the permeability of the soil to increase, so that the water is easier to
infiltrate into the soil and late intensity peak cause the suction to decrease further and
more. Therefore, the rear peak rainfall is more dangerous than the ante-peak and
middle peak rainfall for the dam slope stability.

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GeoFlorida 2010: Advances in Analysis, Modeling & Design


(GSP 199) 2010 ASCE

0.08

1.32

0.06
0.04

1.3

Factor of safety

1.34

0.1

0.02
0
0.25

0.5
Time t (d)

0.75

Duration=1d, IP
Duration=1.5d, FS
Duration=0.5d, FS

1.28

5
4

1.24

1.2

1.16

1
0

1.32

1.28
0

Duration=1.5d, IP
Duration=0.5d, IP
Duration=1d, FS

Factor of safety

Instability probability (%)

1.36

0.12

100

1.12
300

200
Time t (d)

(a) During 1 d
(b) After 1 d
Figure 5. Changes in instability probability and factor of safety with time for
analysis group II (different duration)

0.08

1.36
1.34

0.06
1.32

0.04

1.3

0.02
0

1.28
0

0.25

0.5
Time t (d)

0.75

Ante-peak, IP
Rear peak, IP
Middle peak, FS

3.5
3

Middle peak, IP
Ante-peak, FS
Rear peak, FS

1.28

2.5
2

1.24

1.5
1

1.2

0.5
0

1.16
0

1.32
Factor of safety

0.1

Middle peak, IP
Ante-peak, FS
Rear peak, FS

Instability probability (%)

Ante-peak, IP
Rear peak, IP
Middle peak, FS

Factor of safety

Instability probability (%)

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0.14

Duration=1d, IP
Duration=1.5d, FS
Duration=0.5d, FS

Instability probability (%)

Duration=1.5d, IP
Duration=0.5d, IP
Duration=1d, FS

2029

50

100
Time t (d)

150

200

(a) During rainfall


(b) After rainfall
Figure 6. Changes in instability probability and factor of safety with time for
analysis group III (different peak location)
The changes in instability probability and factor of safety with time for
analysis group IV (rainfall process with different curve shape and the same
precipitation) are shown in Figure 7. During the rainfall, the instability probabilities
for the three cases all increase with time. The discrepancy among them is little and
the instability probability for the case of the rainfall with the short and fat process
curve is the largest. After rainfall, the instability probabilities still increase and reach
the maximum at the same time for the three cases, then decrease with time. The
instability probability for case of rainfall with tall and thin process curve is smallest
during the entire analysis period. It is indicated that the rainfall with a short and fat
process curve is a little more dangerous than the rainfall with a tall and thin process
curve for the dam slope stability.
Comparing Figures 4 and 5 with Figures 6 and 7, it is shown that the
instability probabilities and factors of safety of the former two analysis groups have
more discrepancy than those of the later two analysis groups during and after the
rainfall. This indicates that the precipitation has considerable influence on the

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1.34

0.06
1.32
0.04
1.3

0.02
0

1.28
0

0.25

0.5
Time t (d)

0.75

Tall and thin, IP


Short and fat, IP
Moderate, FS

3.5

Moderate, IP
Tall and thin, FS
Short and fat, FS

1.32

3
1.28

2.5
2

1.24

1.5
1

1.2

Factor of safety

0.08

1.36
Factor of safety

Moderate, IP
Tall and thin, FS
Short and fat, FS

Instability probability (%)

Tall and thin, IP


Short and fat, IP
Moderate, FS

0.1
Instability probability (%)

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instability probability and factor of safety when the rainfall infiltrates into the dam
slope. The instability probability increases with the precipitation, while the factor of
safety deceases with the precipitation. The instability probability and factor of safety
will reach their extremes earlier if the precipitation is larger.

0.5
0

1.16
0

50

100

150

200

Time t (d)

(a) During rainfall


(b) After rainfall
Figure 7. Changes in instability probability and factor of safety with time for
analysis group IV (different process curve shape)
CONCLUSIONS
Rainfall infiltration has significant influence on the instability probability and
factor of safety of dam slopes. Hence it should be considered in the safety evaluation
of dam slopes, especially for the downstream slope.
For all analysis cases, the instability probabilities increase during the rainfall
and some time after the rainfall, then decrease with time. The instability probabilities
cannot revert to the initial value even a long time after the rain. The changes in the
factors of safety with time are opposite to those of the instability probability for all
analysis cases over the entire analysis period.
The instability probability increases with the increase in the precipitation, the
intensity and the duration of the rainfall. Furthermore, the time for instability
probability reaching its maximum will shorten if the precipitation is larger. The rear
peak rainfall can cause higher instability probability and lower factor of safety of the
dam slope owing to longer antecedent rainfall. The rainfall with a short and fat
process curve will lead to a little higher instability probability and a little lower
factor of safety. This also indirectly verifies that the instability probability will be
higher for longer duration rainfall with the same total precipitation.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The work is substantially supported by the Open Foundation of State Key
Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science of Wuhan
University (No. 2007B036), National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.
50709022) and the Program for New Century Excellent Talents of the Ministry of
Education (No. NCET-07-0569).

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