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2023
reliability index (Luan et al. 2004) and instability probability (Chen et al. 2008) of
the dam slope were investigated.
Base on the investigation of practical rainfall processes, this paper studies the
changes in the instability probability and the factor of safety of an embankment dam
slope during rainfall with different patterns. The influences of the maximum intensity,
duration and total precipitation of the rainfall on the instability probability and the
factor of safety are investigated.
ANALYSIS METHOD
In this paper, the seepage field of rainfall infiltration into the dam has been
firstly calculated using the saturate-unsaturated seepage theory. Then the stability
with probabilistic analysis has been conducted. The critical slip surface is first
determined based on the mean values of the input parameters using a limit
equilibrium method. Probabilistic analysis is then performed on the critical slip
surface, considering the variability of the input parameters using the Monte-Carlo
method, and finally the instability probability of the dam slope is calculated.
Analysis of transient seepage caused by rainfall infiltration
The seepage analysis software SEEP/W (Geo-Slope International Ltd. 2007a)
is used to study the transient seepage and the wetting front advancing in the dam
slope. Seepage flows in saturated and unsaturated soils are governed by Darcys law.
The coefficient of permeability in an unsaturated soil is not a constant but a function
of the degree of saturation or soil suction. The general two-dimensional governing
differential equation for water flow through soil is as follows (Lam et al. 1987):
h
h h
= w w
kx
+ k y
x x y y
t
(1)
where, kx and ky are the coefficients of permeability in the x-direction and y-direction,
respectively; w is the unit weight of water; w is the volumetric water content; is
the soil suction; and t is the time. According to the equation, a soil-water
characteristic curve, which is a relationship between the volumetric water content
and the soil suction, as well as a permeability function, must be known for transient
seepage analyses.
Shear strength of unsaturated soil
The software SLOPE/W (Geo-Slope International Ltd. 2007b) that adopts
limit equilibrium methods for slope stability analysis is used to assess the stability
including instability probability for dam slope during rainfall infiltration. Bishops
analysis method (Bishop and Morgenstern 1960) is selected. The shear strength of
soil is described by the extended Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion for unsaturated
soils as follows (Fredlund et al. 1978):
f = c + ( n u a ) f tan + (u a u w ) f tan b
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where, n is the normal stress; ua and uw are the pore-air pressure and the pore-water
pressure, respectively; c and are the effective cohesion and effective friction angle,
respectively; b is a friction angle that represents the shear strength related to the soil
suction (ua-uw).
Monte-Carlo sampling method
A random number generation function to do the random sampling is used in
the Monte-Carlo method in SLOPE/W (Geo-Slope International Ltd. 2007b). Each
random number N has the same distribution as the input parameter. Then the
parameter P needed for every deterministic analysis can be calculated by the
following formula:
P = + N
(3)
where, is the mean value and is the standard deviation of the parameter. The
effective cohesion, c, effective internal friction angle, , and friction angle, b, are
considered as random variables in the probability analysis and can be calculated
using Equation (3).
Theoretically, for the Monte-Carlo method, the more trial runs used in an
analysis the more accurate the solution will be, whereas the more computing time is
needed. In practical analysis, the trial test can be used to determine the trial number,
that is, several analyses for the same case using certain trials can be conducted and
the trial number would suffice if the discrepancy of the results between the several
analyses can be accepted.
Calculation of the instability probability
The probability of instability is the probability of obtaining a factor of safety
less than 1.0. It is computed by integrating the area under the probability density
function for factors of safety less than 1.0. In numerical analysis, it can be calculated
by the following formula:
Pf = n f / n
(4)
where, nf is the number of analyses with the factor of safety less than 1.0; n is the
trial number, which is 500000 in this study.
RAINFALL PROCESS FOR ANALYSIS
Based on the rainfall computation results of a city in Sichuan Province
according to Handbook of Rainstorm and Flood Computation for Middle and Small
Drainage Areas in Sichuan Province (Office of Water Conservancy and Electric
Power of Sichuan Province 1984), the basic rainfall process with 100-year return
period (frequency F = 1%) and 24-hour duration was designed as shown in Figure
1(a). Its maximum intensity is at the middle of the duration. In order to study the
influence of the intensity and precipitation of the rainfall, two other rainfall processes
GeoFlorida 2010
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F=0.1%
F=1%
F=10%
40
30
20
10
0
2
60
80
70
60
50
D=24h
D=12h
D=36h
50
40
30
20
10
0
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Time t (h)
70
Ante-peak
60
Middle peak
Rear peak
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
12
16 20 24
Time t (h)
28
32
36
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with 10-year and 1000-year return periods (frequency F = 0.1% and 10%) were also
calculated using proportioned method (also shown in Figure 1(a)).
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
Moderate
Tall and thin
Short and fat
10
0
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Time t (h)
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Time t (h)
GeoFlorida 2010
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location of intensity peak and the shape of the rainfall process curves on the
instability probability and the factor of safety of the downstream slope. In each
analysis group, there are three analysis cases including a basic case and two varied
cases as listed in Table 1.
In this study, the initial state is corresponding to the steady seepage state that
the upstream water level is 18 m. The boundary conditions for the seepage analyses
are also shown in Figure 2 and applied to all analysis cases. Each rainfall process is
considered as a unit flux boundary given by a rainfall infiltration process function
and applied on the downstream slope surface.
Table 1. Analysis cases and corresponding rainfall parameters
Maximum
Total
Analysis
Duration
Frequency Peak
intensity
precipitation
Shape
cases
(h)
(%)
time
(mm/h)
(mm)
Basic case
52.8
24
298
1
Middle
73.2
413
0.1
Group Case1
24
Middle
I
Case2
34.2
193
10
36
447
Group Case 1
52.8
Middle
II Case 2
12
149
Early
Group Case 1
52.8
24
298
1
III Case 2
Late
77.2
Tall & thin
Group Case 1
24
298
Middle
IV Case 2
30.9
Short& fat
5
Total flux Q=0
he
ota l
ad
1
H=
8m
1: 2
1:
.3
Fine sand
1: 0
.5
18
19
20
Water level
2.5
Clay core
.5
1: 0
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1.7
Un
it f
l
Fine sand
ux
fun
cti
on
21.5
85
The strength and hydraulic properties of the clay and fine sand of the dam
were assumed based on experience. The strength parameters including the friction
angle related to suction were considered as random variables. Their standard
deviations were based on the investigation of strength uncertainty for tens of dam
materials (Chen et al. 2008). The saturated coefficients of permeability, strength
parameters and their standard deviations of the soils are listed in Table 2. The
GeoFlorida 2010
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permeability
Standard
Standard
Standard
(kN/m3)
Mean
Mean
Mean
(m/d)
deviation
deviation
deviation
Clay
19.2
4.3210-3 28.0
5.6
18.0
1.8
15
1.5
Fine sand 18.5
0.432
5
1
25
2.5
12.5
1.25
Clay
Fine sand
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.01
1
100
Suction (kPa)
10000
1.E+00
0.4
Volume water content
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soil-water characteristic curves (SWCC) and permeability functions of the clay and
fine sand used in analyses are shown in Figure 3.
Clay
Fine sand
1.E-03
1.E-06
1.E-09
1.E-12
1.E-15
0.01
1
100
Suction (kPa)
10000
GeoFlorida 2010
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factor of safety. This is because that the Monte-Carlo probabilistic method was
performed on the certain critical slip surface.
1.36
0.12
1.34
0.09
1.32
0.06
1.3
0.03
0
1.28
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
F=0.1%, IP
F=10%, IP
F=1%, FS
1.35
F=1%, IP
F=0.1%, FS 1.3
F=10%, FS
1.25
1.2
1.15
1.1
Factor of safety
0.15
1.38
F=1%, IP
F=0.1%, FS
F=10%, FS
F=0.1%, IP
F=10%, IP
F=1%, FS
Factor of safety
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0.18
1.05
1
0
50
100
150
200
Time t (d)
Time t (d)
GeoFlorida 2010
0.08
1.32
0.06
0.04
1.3
Factor of safety
1.34
0.1
0.02
0
0.25
0.5
Time t (d)
0.75
Duration=1d, IP
Duration=1.5d, FS
Duration=0.5d, FS
1.28
5
4
1.24
1.2
1.16
1
0
1.32
1.28
0
Duration=1.5d, IP
Duration=0.5d, IP
Duration=1d, FS
Factor of safety
1.36
0.12
100
1.12
300
200
Time t (d)
(a) During 1 d
(b) After 1 d
Figure 5. Changes in instability probability and factor of safety with time for
analysis group II (different duration)
0.08
1.36
1.34
0.06
1.32
0.04
1.3
0.02
0
1.28
0
0.25
0.5
Time t (d)
0.75
Ante-peak, IP
Rear peak, IP
Middle peak, FS
3.5
3
Middle peak, IP
Ante-peak, FS
Rear peak, FS
1.28
2.5
2
1.24
1.5
1
1.2
0.5
0
1.16
0
1.32
Factor of safety
0.1
Middle peak, IP
Ante-peak, FS
Rear peak, FS
Ante-peak, IP
Rear peak, IP
Middle peak, FS
Factor of safety
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0.14
Duration=1d, IP
Duration=1.5d, FS
Duration=0.5d, FS
Duration=1.5d, IP
Duration=0.5d, IP
Duration=1d, FS
2029
50
100
Time t (d)
150
200
GeoFlorida 2010
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1.34
0.06
1.32
0.04
1.3
0.02
0
1.28
0
0.25
0.5
Time t (d)
0.75
3.5
Moderate, IP
Tall and thin, FS
Short and fat, FS
1.32
3
1.28
2.5
2
1.24
1.5
1
1.2
Factor of safety
0.08
1.36
Factor of safety
Moderate, IP
Tall and thin, FS
Short and fat, FS
0.1
Instability probability (%)
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instability probability and factor of safety when the rainfall infiltrates into the dam
slope. The instability probability increases with the precipitation, while the factor of
safety deceases with the precipitation. The instability probability and factor of safety
will reach their extremes earlier if the precipitation is larger.
0.5
0
1.16
0
50
100
150
200
Time t (d)
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