IDF

High Speed
Railways
Group-9

Proposed Routes for HSR

1.

Mumbai-Pune

(192 km)

2.

Delhi-Chandigarh-Amritsar

3.

Hyderabad-Dornakal-Vijayawada-Chennai

4.

Chennai-Bangalore-Coimbatore-Ernakulam (850 km)

5.

Delhi-Agra-Lucknow-Varanasi-Patna

(450 km)
(664 km)

(991 km)

HSR in India - Issues

1.

Length of the route : Cost around ten times the normal route (6o million INR
per km) - Economies of scale for viability

2.

Land Acquisition - Cost effectiveness in Standard Gauge V/S Interoperability

3.

Viability Gap Funding, PPP - Attractive with future increase in Customer Base -

4.

Objective Management - Needs efficiency and capacity utilization for being

viable

5.

Scope of expansion - eg Ahmedabad - Bombay

Empirical Modal Shift Characteristics

When in-vehicle time is less

than 150 min, HSR mode
share is around 70-80%

Source: Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development,

Australia report on HSR Phase 2

Source UIC-High Speed Presentation by Jean-Pierre LOUBINOUX 2009

Extension of Ahmedabad-Mumbai to Pune

Passenger Flow Estimation -PRS (between Mumbai & Pune)
Mode of
Transport

Train

Daily
transport
(2007-08)a

1790

Air
Highways
Total

HSR

Daily
transport
(2015-16)

Time of
Travel

7750 3hr 30min

120

1875

Estimated
Data for
2025

500 50 min
12873 3hr 15min

Total
Time

Average
present travel
Cost (INR)

4hr 45min 1200

2hr 20min 8000
4hr

600

21123

32min

1hr

Source: aTotal Transport System System Study on Traffic Flows and Modal Costs

Fare 1AC
(ALT1A)

Rs 1200

ALT1A*1

Rs 1200

ALT1A*1.5

Rs 1800

ALT1A*2

Rs 2400

Extension of Ahmedabad-Mumbai to Pune

Source: TERI report High Speed Rail in India

Bus users are mostly expected to shift to High Speed Railway

Extension of Ahmedabad-Mumbai to Pune

Comparison on HSR route and Air route characteristics for Ahmedabad to Pune
Average Cost
(Presently)

Mode of
Transport

Time of Travel

Total Time

Train

10hr 30min

11hr 30min

Rs 2270

Air

1hr 10min

2hr 30 min

Rs 2500

HSR

3hr

3hr 30min

Fare 1AC
(ALT1A)

Rs 2270

ALT1A*1

Rs 2270

ALT1A*1.5

Rs 3405

ALT1A*2

Rs 4540

The extension can increase connectivity between 2 routes

HSR can to attract passengers travelling directly from Ahmedabad to Pune if suitably priced.

High Speed Railway Bangalore-Chennai

Passenger Flow Estimation -PRS (between Bangalore & Chennai)
Mode of
Transport

Train

Daily
transport
(2007-08)a

4858

Air
Highways
Total

HSR

Daily
transport
(2015-16)

Time of
Travel

21000 7hr

1836
1721

Estimated
Data for
2025

5600 1 hr
11800 7hr

Total
Time

8hr
5hr
7hr

Average
present travel
Cost (INR)

1500
2000
1200

38400

100min

160 min

Source: aTotal Transport System System Study on Traffic Flows and Modal Costs

Fare 1AC
(ALT1A)

Rs 1500

ALT1A*1

Rs 1500

ALT1A*1.5

Rs 2250

ALT1A*2

Rs 3000

High Speed Railway Bangalore-Chennai

Source: TERI report High Speed Rail in India

Bus and conventional rail users are mostly expected to shift to High Speed Railway

High Speed Railway Bangalore-Chennai

Comparison on HSR route and Air route characteristics for Bangalore & Chennai
Average Cost
(Presently)

Mode of
Transport

Time of Travel

Total Time

Train

7 hr

8 hr

Rs 1500

Air

1 hr

5 hr

Rs 2000

HSR

1.67 hr

2.7 hr

Fare 1AC
(ALT1A)

Rs 1500

ALT1A*1

Rs 1500

ALT1A*1.5

Rs 2250

ALT1A*2

Rs 3000

The High Speed Railway has a lesser total travel time

HSR can to attract passengers travelling by bus, rail and air travel.

Initial project estimation for Delhi-Agra

Passenger Flow Estimation -PRS (between Delhi & Agra)
Mode of
Transport

Train

Daily
transport
(2007-08)a

Total

HSR

Estimated
Data for
2025

4840

Air
Highways

Daily
transport
(2015-16)

20950 2hr 15min

0

1770

Time of
Travel

0 50 min
12150 3hr 15min

Total
Time

Average
present travel
Cost (INR)

2hr 15min 1230

NA
3hr

NA
600

33373

90min

1hr 30min

Source: aTotal Transport System System Study on Traffic Flows and Modal Costs

Fare 1AC
(ALT1A)

Rs 1230

ALT1A*1

Rs 1230

ALT1A*1.5

Rs 1845

ALT1A*2

Rs 2460

High Speed Railway Delhi-Amritsar

Passenger Flow Estimation -PRS (between Delhi & Amritsar)
Mode of
Transport

Train

Daily
transport
(2007-08)a

210

Air
Highways
Total

HSR

Daily
transport
(2015-16)

Time of
Travel

900 8hr

865
1720

Estimated
Data for
2025

2640 1 hr
11800 8 hr

Total
Time

9 hr
4 hr
9 hr

Average
present travel
Cost (INR)

2100
2000

Rs 2100

ALT1A*1

Rs 2100

ALT1A*1.5

Rs 3150

ALT1A*2

Rs 4200

2000

38400

110min

Fare 1AC
(ALT1A)

2hr50min

Source: aTotal Transport System System Study on Traffic Flows and Modal Costs

The High Speed

Railway has a lesser
total travel time

Financing Options
1.

2.

Self Funding
a. High capital investment to be borne by Indian Railways
b. All the risk will be on the Indian Railways
c. Could function through a subsidiary or an public sector undertaking
d. Technical concerns regarding Indian Railways lack of experience with HSR
PPP using BOT
a. Bundled/Unbundled
b. In case of bundled, a single private player might not be ready to take up the
high capital investment and high risk of the project
c. Unbundling the construction, rolling stocks and operations would help
reduce risk and expenses of the players involved thus making the project
more lucrative

Financing Options
3.

Soft loans along with technical assistance from Foreign Governments

a.
b.

4.

Foreign Railways with experience in HSR could bring in their expertise

Could restrict the choice of technology to that of the country funding the
project

Hybrid of Foreign assistance and PPP

a.
b.

The foreign governments could help with the funding while the private
parties could take up the individual unbundled activities
Would reduce risks for any one single player while keeping the options for
different technologies open

What should be the second route for HSR?

Factors to choose the second route:
1.

Cost

2.

GDP of the city

3.

Population

4.

Rail time

5.

Monthly household income

What should be the second route for HSR?

Route

Place

Distance
(indicator
of Cost)

GDDP
(in thousand
crore)
2013-14

Population
(in
thousand)
2011

Rail time
(expected
for HSR)

Per Capita
Income (in
INR)
2013

IRR

MumbaiPunea

Mumbai

180 km

334.42

12442

32 min

1.67 lakhs

0%

172.15

9429

68.16

3794

41.5
(2011-12)

4646

391.125

16750

14.9

1585

Pune
HyderabadbChennaic

Hyderabad

700 km

Chennai

Delhid- Agrae

Delhi
Agra

184 km

1.55 lakhs
4 hrs

1.32 lakhs

12%

1.11 lakhs

90 min

2.12 lakhs

5%

.9 lakhs

Source: aEconomic Survey of Maharashtra 2014-15; bSocio-Economic Outlook, Govt. of Telangana, 2015
c
Statistical Handbook 2015, Govt of Tamil Nadu; dEconomic Survey of India 2014; eEconomic Survey of Uttar Pradesh 2014

What should be the second route for HSR?

Route

Place

Distance
(indicator
of Cost)

GDDP
(in thousand
crore)
2013-14

Population
(in
thousand)
2011

Rail time
(expected
for HSR)

Per Capita
Income (in
INR)
2013

IRR

BangaloregChennai

Bangalore
Urban

382 km

170.7
(2012-13)

8750

2hr 40min

2.02 lakhs

15%

41.5
(2011-12)

4646

391.125

16750

Chandigarh

29.08

1055

1.57 lakhs

Amritsar

13.1 (NDDP

2491

.63 lakhs

Chennai

DelhiChandigarhfAmritsarh

Delhi

260 km

1.11 lakhs

1hr 45min

2009-10)

Source: gDepartment of Economics and Statistics, Karnataka; fStatistics, chandigarh.gov.in

h
Economic and Statistical Organisation, Govt of Punjab

2.12 lakhs

10%

Population Trends
Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata are
most populated and its growth is
going to slow down (as per
studies.)
Chennai and Bangalore will grow
in future at faster rate.

Source: IIHS Analysis based on Census of India, 2011

Reasons:
1.

Conclusion
Bangalore-Chennai Route to be the second
choice

Number of Originating
Passengers > 2million

2.
3.

Substantial travel time

reduction as distance > 300 km
High Growth Rate of Cities

4.

High per capita Income

(Purchasing Power)

IRR Calculation

Source: MODAL SHIFT ESTIMATION AND FINANCIAL VIABILITY OF HIGH SPEED RAIL IN INDIA: THE CASE STUDY OF AHMEDABAD MUMBAI CORRIDOR - Ramakrishnan
T.S

IRR Calculation- Assumptions

Assumptions : Modal Shift
1.
2.
3.

Modal Shift from Air to HSR according to the curve Relationship between Rail
Speed and Market Share
Modal Shift of 1.7 % of the Rail (1A,2A,3A,FC) users to HSR
Modal Shift of 1.7% of the Bus Users to HSR

Assumptions : Duration of Construction and Operation

1.
2.
3.
4.

The construction starts from 2017 and operation from 2015, horizon of 2040
Land acquisition in the first three years of construction
Construction costs - 60 million INR per kilometer
Land acquisition proportional to the length of HSR

IRR Calculation- Assumptions

Assumptions : Construction Cost Structure
1.
2.
3.

Construction cost and land acquisition Schedule with respect to year from
Ramakrishnan T.S.
Base rate of land acquisition calculation form Mumbai Ahmedabad Corridor.
Rolling stock cost & the Operation Cost per passenger from Ramakrishnan T.S.

Assumptions : Revenues
1.
2.
3.
4.

Price used is twice the 1A price

The growth rate of passengers 17.04% till 2030 and 11.38% 2030 onwards
Three trips per day including the waiting times
Additional rolling stock inventory of One

Sample IRR Calculation

2025
- 26

2627

2728

2829

2930

3031

3132

3233

3334

3435

3536

3637

3738

3839

3940

4041

4.75

5.57

6.52

7.63

8.93

10.45

11.64

16

14.44

16.08

17.9

19.95

22.2

24.7

27.6

30.7

Rolling Stock
with 954
occupancy

10

10

10

Procurement

Total
Passengers
(in thousands)

Proportion of Construction costs

Cost including inflation ( lakh INR)
Construction Cost(lakh INR)

2017-18

18-19

19-20

20-21

21-22

22-23

23-24

24-25

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.1

389240

419834

452833

488426

526816

568224

612887

661060

20992

45283

97685

147509

125009

61289

33053

Sample IRR Calculation

17 - 18
Land Acquisition
(Lakh INR)
Construction Cost
(Lakh INR)

19 - 20

23 - 24

24 - 25

25 - 26

-187220

-221640

-45283

-61289

-33053

Rolling Stock (Lakh INR)

O/M Costs (Lakh INR)
Revenue (Lakh INR)
Total (Lakh INR)
IRR

-187220
0.15

-266923

-61289

-33053

26 - 27

30 - 31

31 - 32

32 - 33

36 - 37

40 - 41

-182672

-287631

-57

-71

-181

-218

-262

-545

-1135

93772

118378

300641

379527

479113

1216793

3090263

-88956

118306

300460

91679

478851

1216248

3089128

* Few Columns has been hidden