VILLAMOSHLZATOK MEGBIZHATSGA BEVEZETS

POWER SYSTEM RELIABILITY

AN
INTRODUCTION

Dr. J. Endrenyi
Ontario Power Technologies

Toronto,
Ontario 2000

Power System Reliability Concepts

Villamoshlzatok megbzhatsgnak alapfogalmai

INTRODUCTION

For many years, decisions concerning the reliability of electric

power supply were based on engineering judgement and experience. The
results were satisfactory because power systems were comparatively
small and simple. As the networks and their components became more
complex, however, the empirical approaches had to be replaced by more
rigorous methods, based on formal mathematical approaches and
reliability theory.

The process is not unique: it is typical of scientific development in

many areas. Devices become more and more complicated, to the point
that mathematical models and abstract theories must be employed to
master them, instead of the instinctive solutions used in the early stages
of development. The progress from the simple to the complicated seems
to be a general attribute of the human condition.

The history of formal reliability studies goes back to the days of the Second World
War when it was felt necessary to develop methods for estimating the success rate of
complex weapons. After the war, these methods were applied to electronic devices and
in space technology. Most of the applications concerned non-repaired devices and
systems where the first failure would terminate the useful life of the device or system.

Reliability analysis of repairable systems (where useful life continues after a failure
is repaired) usually requires more complex mathematical models and the first methods
based on such models were developed only in the 1960's. Power systems and their
components are in this class, and while simple approaches to generation reserve
evaluation were proposed as early as 1947, a full-scale effort to model the failurerepair processes involved was begun only in the late 1960's.

Early suggestions to use probabilistic approaches for predicting power system

reliability were actually published before the war. However, much of the reliability
methodology subsequently developed has used deterministic methods and criteria. To
a certain extent, this is still the case today. The acceptance of probabilistic approaches
is slow, mainly because they have not acquired the level of credibility which is
accorded to the much simpler and more transparent deterministic methods.

Today's new operating environment for electric power systems, involving

competition and direct access of customers to energy providers, gives a whole new
slant to the reliability concepts, goals and criteria to be applied. In this new culture the
risks involved with various scenarios can only be evaluated by probability methods.
Thus, the development and refinement of such methods acquire further urgency.

A SHORT LIST OF BOOKS ON RELIABILITY

A. General
A1. Pieruschka, E., Principles of Reliability. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1963.
A2. Shooman, M.L., Probabilistic Reliability: An EngineeringApproach. McGraw-Hill, New York, NY, 1968.
A3. Henley, E.J. and Kumamoto, H., Reliability Engineering and Risk Assessment. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1981.
Reprinted with the title Probabilistic Risk Assessment, IEEE Press, New York, NY, 1992.
A4. Pages A. and Gondran, M., System Reliability - Evaluation and Prediction in Engineering. Springer, New York, NY,
1986.
A5. Anders, G.J., Probability Concepts in Electric Power Systems. J. Wiley & Sons, New York, NY, 1990.
A6. Birolini, A., Quality and Reliability of Technical Systems. Springer, Berlin/New York, 1994.
A7. Kumamoto, H. and Henley, E.J., Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Management for Engineers and Scientists. Second
edition, IEEE Press, New York, NY, 1996.

B. Theoretical
B1. Barlow, R.E., and Proschan, F., Mathematical Theory of Reliability. J. Wiley & Sons, New York, N.Y., 1965. B2. Barlow,
B3. Singh, C., and Billinton, R., System Reliability Modelling and Evaluation. Hutchinson, London, 1977.

C. Power System Reliability

C1. Billinton, R., Power System Reliability Evaluation. Gordon and Breach, New York, N.Y., 1970. C2. Endrenyi, J.,
Reliability Modeling in Electric Power Systems. J. Wiley & Sons, Chichester, 1978.
C3. Billinton, R., and Allan, R.N., Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems. Pitman, London (Plenum Press, New York), 1984.
C4. Billinton, R., and Allan, R.N., Reliability Assessment of Large Electric Power Systems. Kluwer, New York, N.Y., 1988.
C5. Wang, L., and Endrenyi, J., "Reliability Techniques in Large Electric Power Systems". Chapter 4 of Control and
Dynamic Systems, Vol 42, Edited by C.T. Leondes, Academic Press, San Diego, CA, 1991.
C6. Billinton, R., Allan, R.N. and Salvaderi L., Applied Reliability Assessment in Electric Power Systems. IEEE
Press, New York, NY, 1991. (Contains a selection of papers from 1947 to 1989, including Bibliographies D l -D4. )

C7. Billinton, R. and Li, W., Reliability Assessment of Electric Power Sysvtems Csing Nlonte Carlo olethods.
Plenum Press, New York, N.Y., 1994.

BIBLIOGRAPHIES
Dl. Billinton, R., "Bibliography on the Application of Probability Methods in Power System Reliability Evaluation",
IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol. 91, 649-660, March/April 1972.
D2. IEEE Committee Report, "Bibliography on the Application of Probability Methods in Power System Reliability
Evaluation, 1971-1977", IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol. 97, 22352242,
November/December 1978.
D3. Allan, R.N., Billinton, R. and Lee, S.H., "Bibliography on the Application of Probability Methods in Power System
Reliability Evaluation, 1977-1982", IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol. 103, 275-282,
February 1984.
D4. Allan, R.N., Billinton, R., Shahidehpour, S.M. and Singh, C., "Bibliography on the Application of Probability Methods in
Power System Reliability Evaluation, 1982-1987", IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 3, 1555-1564,
November 1988.
D5. Allan, R.N., Billinton, R., Breipohl, A.M. and Grigg, C.H., "Bibliography on the Application of Probability Methods in
Power System Reliability Evaluation, 1987-1991", IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 9, 41-49, February
1994.
D6. Schilling, M.Th., Billinton, R., Leite da Silva, A.M. and El-Kady, M.A., "Bibliography on Composite System Reliability
(1964-1988)", IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 4, I 122-1132, August 1989.
D7. Schilling, M.Th., Leite da Silva, A.M., Billinton, R. and El-Kady, M.A., "Bibliography on Power System Probabilistic
Analysis (1962-1988)", IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 5, 1-I l, February 1990.
D8. Billinton, R., Wacker, G. and Wojczynski, E., "Comprehensive Bibliography of Electric Service Interruption
IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol. 102, 1831-1837, June 1983.

Costs",

D9. Tollefson, G., Billinton, R. and Wacker, G., "Comprehensive Biblio5raphy on Reliability Worth and Electrical Service
Customer Interruption Costs, 1980-1990", IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 6, 1508-1514, November
1991.

THE CONCEPT OF RELIABILITY

Reliability is the probability of a device or system

performing its function adequately, for the period of
time intended, under the operating conditions intended.

The reliability of an electric supply system can be

defined as the degree of assurance in providing the
customers with continuous service of satisfactory quality
(voltages and frequency within prescribed bounds).

DETERMINISTIC VS. PROBABILISTIC THINKING

Essentially, reliability studies provide predictions. They predict

the future behaviour of a device or system, based on past information
and experience. Since predictions cannot be made with certainty, they
are inherently probabilistic.

This is equally true for most engineering design techniques

which also involve predictions of future performance. However, very rarely
are probabilistic approaches used in these methods - they are mostly
based on deterministic techniques. This also applies to the older methods
used in reliability studies.

While more complex and difficult, probabilistic thinking is

gradually establishing itself in many areas of engineering.

THE TRADITIONAL (DETERMINISTIC) APPROACH

In this approach system design and operating policies are based on preselected tests: failure criteria are defined so that certain combinations of system and
load conditions must not represent immediate system breakdown or even
excessive component stress.

To make sure that these criteria are met, "worst-case conditions" are analyzed
and the calculated stresses and strengths for the case are set apart by a "safety
factor".

DRAWBACKS OF THE TRADITlONAL APPROACH

- variability in input data is ignored (data provide spectra, not

fixed numbers).
- selection of "worst-case" conditions is arbitrary: important
conditions may be omitted, unlikely conditions included.

- the assumption of no failure risk in designs satisfying

traditional criteria is misleading; in fact, the approach
provides no idea how safe the design actually is.

- the effort to stay on the safe side often results in

overdesign.

THE PROBABILISTIC APPROACH

In the probabilistic approach, the design and operating rules

are based on the criterion that the risk (probabilities) of such events
occurring must not exceed pre-selected limits.

White the probabilistic approach requires far more

sophistcated analysis, the concept of limiting the risk of system
failure can be very clearly interpreted, the impact of failures can be
assessed, and the method avoids the potential disparities inherent
in the traditional approach.

Probabilistic approach

Indices

Probabilistic indices serve as reliability measures. Such indices are

measurable quantities; that is, they have numerical values. These
values are either based on past experience (involving statistical
assessments) or on predictive models (involving probability methods).

Typical indices are:

* probabilities of failures

* frequencies of failures

* mean durations of failures

* expectations (such as the expected amount of energy

per year the system is unable to supply)

Reliability criteria

Probabilistic reliability criteria are thresholds on indices, separating

the domains of acceptance and rejection.

ADEQUACY AND SECURITY

Power system reliability, an umbrella concept, can be described by two

attributes:

Adequacy: the ability to supply the aggregate electric power and

energy requirements of the customers, within component ratings and
voltage limits, taking into account planned and unplanned component
outages.

Security: the ability to withstand specified sudden disturbances such

as the unanticipated losses of system components.

Another aspect of reliability is system integrity, the ability to maintain

interconnected operations. Integrity is violated if uncontrolled separation occurs
in the presence of severe disturbances.

THE AREAS OF ADEQUACY AND SECURITY STUDIES

POWER SYSTEM ADEQUACY

Deterministic Approach
No measures of reliability exist
Criteria are set in terms of pre-determined tests.
E.g., the system must retain its ability to supply all Ioads during:
* the loss of the largest generating unit
* the loss of selected circuits (n-1 rule)

Probabilistic approach
Reliability is measured with the help of probabilistic indices. For example, the
probability or the frequency of failures, or the expected number of days per year when
the peak load is not met may be required in a typical assessment of power system
reliability.

As mentioned before, probabilistic reliability criteria are predetermined index values

which separate the regions of acceptance and rejection. For example, a design
requirement may be that the index of expected number of days in a year when the peak
load demand is not met should be less than 0.1 day/year (1 day in 10 years).

Comparison of deterministic and probabilistic adequacy methods

ADEQUACY INDICES

Notation:

CLASSIFICATION OF SYSTEM
OPERATING STATES

References: Reliability Indices for Power Systems. EPRI Report EL 1773, March 1981
Composite System Reliability Evaluation: Phase 1 - Scoping Study. EPRI Report EL 5290, December 1987.

SECURITY CRITERIA

Deterministic approach

It is impractical to guard against all sudden contingencies. In practice, the system is

designed and operated to be able to withstand a given set of contingencies so
that, according to experience, an acceptable degree of security is ensured at
acceptable cost.

This approach is implemented by designating operating for security limits for the line
loadings, which are lower than the thermal limits generally used in adequacy studies.
The operating limits are determined by stability tests for the above set of contingencies.

Probabilistic approach

Limits on indices - yet to be determined.

SECURITY INDICES
(Proposed)

* Probability that the next disturbance wll result in an unstable state

* Mean time to instability

* Probability and frequency of a stable state reached after limited
cascading

* Probability and frequency of system collapse

TYPICAL APPLICATIONS IN PLANNING

* Determination of reliability trends

* Comparison of alternatives
* Assessment against reliability criteria
* Balancing costs and benefits

TYPICAL APPLICATIONS IN OPERATIONS

Time Frame A (from the present to a few hours or days)

* Economic utilization of available generating capacity
* Provision of adequate spinning reserve to keep the risk of system failure
below a predetermined level
* Assessment of the amount of power that can be sold or needs to be
purchased
* Choice of corrective actions in contingencies

Time Frame B (up to 1 yr)

* Unavailability of hydroelectric energy
* Impact of the forecast uncertainty of hydroelectric energy *
Economic operating schedule
* Scheduling of energy sales and purchases
* Assessment of requests for deviations from schedules *
Component maintenance and overhaul scheduling

Time Frame C (up to the end of the operating time horizon - 2 to 4 years)
* Mothballing and restoring units *
Fuel contracts
* Long-term sales and

COST AND WORTH OF RELIABILITY

Management decisions involving reliability considerations are based on the desire

to find an optimal balance between the gains realized from higher reliability, and the
cost of providing it. A diagram describing the conditions in general is shown below.

If all relevant factors were known, this method could be used to determine
reliability standards.

IS THE ECONOMICALLY OPTIMAL RISK THE

BEST DESIGN TARGET?

The public may want to have a better design/service than the most
economical. They may be willing to pay for it. This is equivalent to putting
extra penalty on the costs of low reliability for the associated annoyance.
The new "optimal" level of reliability would be higher (A).

if rates are considered too high, the penalty would be applied to the highreliability end of the damage curve. If political, ecological or environmental
constraints do not allow for the system extension needed to maintain a
given level of reliability, this can be represented by raising the investment
costs in the high-reliability domain. Both effects reduce the level of
reliability that is "optimal" under the
circumstances (B).
Optimal reliability depends on what the customers, or the society as a
whole, can afford.