by
Michel Rauchs
Abstract
Bitcoin, a decentralised cryptocurrency system conceived by a mysterious
person or group of people using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, promises to
revolutionise the way that we think about money and the transfer of value in
general. After a quiet launch in 2009, it has evolved several years later into a
multi-billion dollar industry and has inspired the creation of hundreds of similar
cryptocurrency systems. However, little research has been undertaken so far to
study the vibrant business ecosystems that form around these decentralised
networks. The aim of this project is thus to explore the emergence of the Bitcoin
business ecosystem and its evolving structure using a data-driven approach, and
identify the factors that drive this evolution. For this purpose, a theoretical
market segment framework is developed and applied to a longitudinal dataset of
514 companies and projects that was specifically built for this project. Using a
visualisation approach, the business ecosystem is mapped in terms of the
affiliations of entities to market segments over a time window from 2010-2015 in
order to visually analyse how the structure evolves. The key findings and
observations are presented and several factors influencing the evolution of the
business ecosystem are identified. Finally, the results are discussed in relation to
the existing theory. The project provides the first comprehensive and data-driven
analysis of the Bitcoin business ecosystem and offers interesting insights into its
structure and evolution. Moreover, it contributes to the understanding of the
factors that drive this evolution and provides a unique dataset that can be used
for further research.
Preface
Having been interested for a long time in the inner workings of the
financial system and the concept of money, I came across Bitcoin in early 2015
and was immediately fascinated by the prospect of what a decentralised stateless
currency could achieve. In the middle of the emerging hype around blockchain
technology, I had a lot to catch up with and dove right away into the large
depository of knowledge that had already been formed by the Bitcoin community
and other cryptocurrency advocates. It took me several months to grasp the
basics, and many more to cut through the large amount of smoke grenades and
unsubstantial claims made by consultants and blockchain experts that seemed
to make sense though at first glance. Nevertheless, I slowly realised the beauty
of the system that Satoshi had designed way back when I was still in high school
and was thrilled by the endless possibilities that the network enabled. When the
time came for choosing a topic for my Masters thesis, I saw the opportunity of
spending a whole year full-time on Bitcoin and related systems. After consulting
with my tutor, we decided to focus on the Bitcoin business ecosystem, and I set
out to build a database of bitcoin-related companies and projects. The timeconsuming research process offered me the fantastic possibility to dive into all
sorts of aspects regarding Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, to attend
conferences and meet-ups and to connect with a lot of wonderful people. The
result of that year is a dataset of 514 companies and projects over a time window
from 2010-2015, which I plan to make freely available for anyone interested in
using the data for whatever purpose. This is my small contribution to the open-
ii
source community that has taught me many valuable lessons and inspired me to
continue with this path in the future.
I would first like to express my gratitude to Kary Bheemaiah for being the
first to introduce me to Bitcoin, for many interesting follow-up discussions and
for providing valuable advice and assistance. Next, I would like to thank my
tutor Federico Pigni, who helped me guide through the particularities of
academia and suggested to focus the analysis on the ecosystem level. Marco
Tonellato deserves also to get praised for his admirable patience and willingness
to help me getting introduced to network visualisation. Of course, I cannot thank
enough my parents who have always supported me in everything I do. I would
also like to thank the Bitcoin community and all the individuals I had the
pleasure to meet in this space, you did a fantastic job. Moreover, Im grateful for
all the people that have supported me during my journey in one or another way.
Finally, I want to thank Satoshi Nakamoto for designing one of the most
revolutionary systems in the last decades that has the potential to shape the
future in ways we still cannot imagine.
iii
Table of Contents
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................. 1
1.1 CONTEXT .................................................................................................................................................................. 1
1.2 DECENTRALISED CRYPTOCURRENCY SYSTEMS .................................................................................................. 2
1.3 RESEARCH PROBLEM .............................................................................................................................................. 2
1.4 STRUCTURE .............................................................................................................................................................. 3
1.5 SIGNIFICANCE .......................................................................................................................................................... 4
CHAPTER 2: BITCOIN ............................................................................................................................... 6
2.1 CONCEPT .................................................................................................................................................................. 6
2.2 MECHANICS ............................................................................................................................................................. 7
2.2.1 How does it work? ........................................................................................................................................... 7
2.2.2 Nakamoto consensus ..................................................................................................................................... 9
2.3 BITCOIN SOFTWARE ............................................................................................................................................. 10
2.3.1 Bitcoin Core ...................................................................................................................................................... 10
2.3.2 Core developers .............................................................................................................................................. 11
2.3.3 Developer funding ......................................................................................................................................... 12
2.4 VALUE PROPOSITION(S) ...................................................................................................................................... 12
2.4.1 Decentralised digital cash ......................................................................................................................... 13
2.4.2 P2P payment network ................................................................................................................................. 14
2.4.3 New asset class ............................................................................................................................................... 15
2.4.4 Immutable time-stamped file system .................................................................................................... 15
2.4.5 Implications ..................................................................................................................................................... 16
CHAPTER 3: LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................................................... 18
3.1 BUSINESS ECOSYSTEMS ........................................................................................................................................ 18
3.1.1 Concept .............................................................................................................................................................. 18
3.1.2 Definition and characteristics ................................................................................................................. 19
3.1.3 Technology platforms .................................................................................................................................. 20
3.2 ECOSYSTEM TRAJECTORIES ................................................................................................................................. 23
3.2.1 Factors ................................................................................................................................................................ 23
3.2.2 Frameworks and approaches ................................................................................................................... 24
3.3 BITCOIN AND CRYPTOCURRENCIES .................................................................................................................... 26
3.4 RESEARCH GAP ...................................................................................................................................................... 28
CHAPTER 4: METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................................. 30
4.1 BOUNDARY SPECIFICATION ................................................................................................................................. 30
4.1.1 The Bitcoin ecosystem ................................................................................................................................. 30
4.1.2 The Bitcoin business ecosystem ............................................................................................................... 33
4.2 DATA COLLECTION ............................................................................................................................................... 35
4.2.1 Identification of relevant entities ........................................................................................................... 35
4.2.2 Type of data collected .................................................................................................................................. 36
4.2.3 Data sources .................................................................................................................................................... 37
4.2.4 Resulting dataset ........................................................................................................................................... 38
4.3 MARKET SEGMENT FRAMEWORK ...................................................................................................................... 38
4.3.1 Categories of subindustries ....................................................................................................................... 38
4.3.2 Development of framework ...................................................................................................................... 39
4.3.3 Framework ....................................................................................................................................................... 40
4.4 DESIGN .................................................................................................................................................................... 43
4.4.1 Visualisation approach ............................................................................................................................... 43
4.4.2 Computation of network graphs ............................................................................................................. 44
iv
Chapter 1: Introduction
1.1 Context
In the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2007/2008 and the subsequent
economic recession, many have voiced critics and concerns about the state of the
financial system, which was in large parts responsible for the financial and
economic downturn. As a result, new start-ups have popped up that apply
technology to traditional financial services and unbundle the offerings of
traditional banking. This has led to the emergence of the so-called FinTech
(Financial Technology) ecosystem, an alternative within the traditional financial
services industry that offers complementary services and/or disrupt existing
processes in fields ranging from insurance and everyday banking to wealth
management and capital raising. Especially the traditional value transfer
system, which is built on automated clearing houses and intermediary banks, is
prone to rapid changes with the emergence of alternative payment schemes.
While most new entrants focus on improving the customer and merchant
experience and leaving the underlying payments infrastructure undisrupted
(WEF, 2015: p.28), there is a variety of nascent non-traditional payment
schemes (WEF, 2015: p.43) that rely on alternative infrastructure to deliver
payments.
and
develop
the
core
platform,
upon
which
complementary
business ecosystems due to the unique nature of their value propositions and the
absence of a platform owner or dominator. They effectively constitute a new type
of platform-based business ecosystems that have not yet been thoroughly studied
in the literature. To fill this gap, this study attempts to explore how an entire
business ecosystem is emerging around such platforms, how its structure is
evolving over time and what factors drive this evolution. For this purpose, we
focus the study on Bitcoin, the first and largest of these decentralised
cryptocurrency systems. Bitcoin, first described in 2008 and launched in January
2009, has attracted a large and thriving ecosystem of entrepreneurs, developers
and users around its platform since its inception and remains the most popular
decentralised cryptocurrency system.
1.4 Structure
The remainder of the paper is organised as follows. In Chapter 2, we
describe the concept and mechanics of Bitcoin and give further reading advice.
We then discuss the value propositions that the Bitcoin platform offers and how
they differ from traditional financial services platforms. Chapter 3 introduces
the concept of business ecosystems and presents an overview of the literature
regarding business ecosystems, technology platforms and their evolutionary
trajectories before addressing the research gap. Chapter 4 defines the boundaries
of the study, describes the data collection process and introduces a theoretical
framework that groups the diverse product and service offerings into market
segments. Subsequently, the methodology used for transforming the raw data
into bipartite network graphs is depicted. In Chapter 5, the key statistics of the
dataset analysis are summarised, the resulting network graphs from 2010-2015
are presented and briefly commented, and the key findings, observations and
trends are highlighted. Chapter 6 attempts to determine the factors that drive
this evolution and have an influence on the overall business ecosystem. The
findings are then discussed and being related to the existing theory. In Chapter
7, the implications and limitations of the study are presented and exciting new
research avenues are suggested.
1.5 Significance
We believe that this study contributes to the understanding of the
emergence and evolution of platform-based business ecosystems in general, and
specifically to business ecosystems forming around decentralised cryptocurrency
systems, which offer a unique value proposition that touches a fundamental
concept of human society and civilisation - money. To our knowledge, this is the
first comprehensive study on the Bitcoin business ecosystem, based on a unique
longitudinal dataset specifically built for the purpose of this project. Bitcoin
represents one of the most exciting revolutions in technology and money in
recent decades, and we consider it to be worthwhile studying the economic
community that has formed around this system, which exhibits a market
capitalisation of over $9 billion1 as of August 2016.
Chapter 2: Bitcoin
2.1 Concept
Bitcoin was first described in October 2008 in a self-published white paper
on a cryptographic mailing list by an anonymous person or group of people under
the name of Satoshi Nakamoto. The founder(s) described it as a system
enabling a purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash that allows two parties
to send online payments to each other without having to go through a centralised
institution (Nakamoto, 2008: p.1). The European Central Bank (2015: p.25)
refers to Bitcoin as the first decentralised virtual currency scheme2, a term
that includes both the underlying value transfer system (payment network) as
well as the native token or currency (bitcoin3) needed to fuel the system. Bitcoin
thus is a new form of currency (Ali, Barrdear, Clews & Southgate, 2014b:
p.276) combined with an innovative payment system that together provide a
censorship-resistant because decentralised way of sending online payments
without having to rely on a central authority. Given the complexities of the
different components that act together to make the system work, we tend to
favour the definition of Bitcoin as a collection of concepts and technologies that
form the basis of a digital money ecosystem (Antonopoulos, 2015: p.1).
The Bank of England uses the term digital currency schemes and defines it as a combination
of new decentralised payment systems and new currencies. (Ali, Barrdear, Clews & Southgate,
2014a).
3 Bitcoin with uppercase B generally refers to the protocol and system, while bitcoin with
lowercase b refers to the currency unit.
2
2.2 Mechanics
There are a number of excellent books and articles exploring the inner
workings of the Bitcoin network in detail for a more technical (Antonopoulos,
2015; Bonneau et al., 2015) as well as non-technical audience (Bhme, Christin,
Edelman & Moore, 2015, Narayanan, Bonneau, Felten, Miller & Goldfeder,
2016). Therefore, we are only going to briefly describe the basic functioning of the
system.
be more inclined not to abuse his power to double-spend his own payment and
thereby destroying the value of the system, but rather use his dominant position
to mine a large amount of bitcoins and make a profit.
10
11
It is generally assumed that a transaction that received six or more confirmations (i.e. six or
more blocks have been mined on top of the block containing the transaction and accepted by the
network) is safe from being reversed.
9
12
13
need for users to identify themselves with personal information and adds a
certain degree of anonymity.13 Finally, bitcoins can serve as a way of improving
financial inclusion for the unbanked and let them participate in the global
economy by providing them with an alternative bank account.
However, Bitcoin is more accurately described as pseudonymous, because the public nature of
the global ledger recording every transaction that ever occurred often enables to link public
addresses to user identities (Reid & Harrigan, 2013)
14 The genesis block constitutes the first block in a blockchain and is usually hardcoded into the
software.
15 Hence, Bitcoin carries the promise of very low transaction fees, which so far has been proven
true. However, with the amount of newly generated coins per block being halved approximately
every four years, they are expected to increase over time (Ali et al., 2014b).
13
14
confidential data such as personal identity information and credit card numbers
to be stored on insecure servers.
For the rest of this paper, the term non-currency (or non-monetary) applications will be used to
determine the specific use cases that relate to this aspect of Bitcoins value proposition.
16
15
can easily be verified by any interested party that has access to the original data.
Similarly, particular states from other databases or data layers can periodically
be hashed and anchored in the Bitcoin blockchain for accountability and
verification purposes, enabling to determine the last valid version of a specific
state. Another possibility is to add specific metadata to bitcoin transactions
either via the OP_RETURN opcode or directly encoded in transaction outputs
that add secondary meaning that can be understood by clients of a meta-protocol.
These specially formatted bitcoin transactions enable the creation of an overlay
network on top of Bitcoin. The meta-protocol specifying the overlay network will
benefit from Bitcoins security while at the same time enable new functionalities
that would not be possible on the base layer, thereby opening up endless
possibilities for the creation of new complex systems and applications.
2.4.5 Implications
The three first aspects enable what can be called currency or monetary
applications. These refer to Bitcoin as a new and unique way of creating,
holding, storing, and transferring money on the Internet17. In contrast, the
fourth aspect enables non-currency or non-monetary applications that go beyond
the concept of money and use Bitcoin as a distributed immutable data store.
Interestingly, the latter use case has only been discovered after the network had
already been running for years.
Money over IP: Tweet from Roger Ver (2012, May 24). Retrieved from:
https://twitter.com/rogerkver/status/205622508089647104
17
16
Although currently all four aspects are possible and also being actively
used, there are some considerations regarding the scaling of the system and the
compatibility of the four facets. While both currency and non-currency
applications generally can co-exist together, an increased use of Bitcoin as a data
store in the future might bloat the blockchain and add to scalability issues.
However, this is similarly true for Bitcoin being increasingly used as a payment
network: the arbitrary 1 MB (megabyte) block size limit is considered too small
to accommodate a significant surge in transactions. This has resulted in a fierce
debate within the community over whether the block size should be increased or
not. In addition, there is a conflict between the aspects described in section 2.4.1
and 2.4.3: the deflationary nature of Bitcoin encourages the hoarding of bitcoins
rather than the use as a medium of exchange, which poses major impediments to
it being used as a currency.
17
in
nature,
such
as
competition,
18
specialisation,
co-operation,
19
two
complementary
forces
in
the
interactions
between
ecosystem
participants (Iansiti and Levien, 2004: p.35; Merry, 1995: p.175). This
interconnectedness leads to feedback loops on the micro-level, which coupled
with conscious choices made by firms based on limited knowledge result in
unanticipated
outcomes
at
the
macro-level
(Peltoniemi,
2006:
p.18).
20
makes the platform subject to network effects (Gawer, 2009a: p.2). Evans (2009)
shows that multi-sided platforms need to attract enough users on each side in
order to achieve sustainable growth and create enough value for each group of
users.
Gawer and Cusumano (2014) distinguish between internal or companyspecific platforms and external or industry-wide platforms. Industry platforms
are products, services, or technologies developed by one or more firms which
constitute building blocks serving as foundation upon which other firms can
create complementary products, services and technologies (Gawer, 2009b: p.54).
These complementary assets refer to what Amit and Zott (2001) call
"complementarities". Baldwin and Woodard (2009: p.19) argue that all platforms
are fundamentally composed of a set of core components that are stable and
rarely change, a complementary set of peripheral components that are variable
and can be changed, as well as the interfaces between them. This allows a
platform and its surrounding services and applications to continually evolve
without having to fundamentally change the building blocks. Industry platforms
thus tend to get more valuable the more innovation is happening on the
complements (Gawer, 2009b). Similarly, Suarez and Cusumano (2009) highlight
the important role that services play in a platform-based ecosystem in the
creation of indirect network effects, value added and customer experience.
Most research has concentrated on ecosystems based on platforms that are
owned, controlled and/or dominated by a single company or a small set of
companies that are referred to as platform leaders (Gawer & Cusumano, 2002,
2008) or keystone firms (Iansiti & Levien, 2004). Boudreau and Hagiu (2009)
21
in
between
(Muegge,
2011:
p.5).
Some
papers
focus
on
the
22
23
24
traditional
brick-and-mortar
business
ecosystems
and
less
to
software
ecosystems.
Adomavicius, Bockstedt, Gupta & Kauffman. (2008) propose a model to
understand the role of technological change in the evolution of technology
ecosystems. They define 3 specific roles that technology can play in an ecosystem
(component role, product and application role as well as the support and
infrastructure role), whose complex interactions and interplays shape the
evolution of the ecosystem. Another model for determining the technological
change driving the ecosystem evolution includes the clockspeed measure
(Mkinen and Dedehayir, 2013), an approach that takes into consideration the
dynamics of the various subindustries that are essential for the provision of
services in the main business ecosystem. Jansen (2014) proposes a framework to
measure the health of open-source ecosystems, which, however, is more focused
on the developer community than on the economic actors.
Given the lack of sound analytical frameworks, the evolution of an
ecosystem has often been studied by analysing the inter-firm relationships in a
specific ecosystem to depict the dynamics of the underlying structure (Iyer, Lee
& Venkatram, 2006; Basole & Karla, 2011) and explain changes in the network
structure with changes of strategic positions and roles of focal firms (Iyer et al.,
2006). Similarly, Iansiti and Leviens (2004) framework of the four roles that
exist in a business ecosystem could in theory be used to describe the evolution of
the ecosystem structure by analysing the changing roles of a focal firm.
25
26
several case studies to companies active in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Using Moores
(2014) technology adoption life cycle - an adaptation of Rogers (1962) diffusion
model of innovation, Wolfson (2015) analyses Bitcoins early market. He suggests
that Bitcoin has moved through the innovation stage (Wolfson, 2015: p. 210) in
2013 and early 2014. He makes the difference between the core developers and
early entrepreneurs, who he ranks among the innovators, and the early adopters
who he describes as less technologists.
28
systems provide a unique set of compelling value propositions which set them
apart from other business ecosystems, the findings are expected to be different
from traditional business ecosystem research.
We focus our research on Bitcoin, because it has several advantages
compared to other similar cryptocurrency systems from a research perspective: it
was the first digital currency introducing the concept of decentralised
cryptocurrencies to the world in 2008, and has the largest market capitalisation
and user base of all decentralised digital currencies. As Velde (2013: p.317)
asserts, [Bitcoin] has a status of quasi-monopoly in the realm of digital
currencies by virtue of its first-mover advantage. As a result it has received
most media coverage and various aspects of the system are well documented: as
a consequence, most data available regarding cryptocurrency systems is related
to Bitcoin. In addition, it constitutes the most powerful distributed computing
network on earth in terms of computational power, after having largely exceeded
already in mid-2013 the combined processing strength of the world's top 500
most powerful supercomputers (Cowley, 2013). As previously stated, there is no
dominant actor or entity to the platform that has supreme power. Instead, there
is a complex balance of power between core developers, miners, the economic
majority and the wider community.
We believe that by visualising the emergence and evolution of the Bitcoin
business ecosystem and its components over time using a longitudinal dataset,
we can address the knowledge gap that exists with regard to the formation of
economic communities around decentralised cryptocurrency systems.
29
Chapter 4: Methodology
4.1 Boundary specification
In order to define the boundaries of the study, we first describe the different
components of the Bitcoin ecosystem and subsequently limit the study to a
specific part of the overall ecosystem.
2.
3.
4.1.1.1 Developers
The Bitcoin protocol, network and consensus system constitute the core
infrastructure and backbone of the whole ecosystem. They can be considered as
the set of core components of the open Bitcoin platform that serve as
technological building blocks for other applications and services to be built upon.
As for now, the core developers are working on reviewing, maintaining and
extending the source code of the reference client Bitcoin Core, which essentially
defines the protocol and the system rules.
30
Similarly,
Cusumano (2014: p.23) notes that Bitcoin as a new technology and platform in
early stages requires "an ecosystem of complimentary products and services to
make the technology truly easy to use". This reflects Adner's (2006) view that
disrupting technologies need complementary and supporting elements and
innovations to attract users. It is worth adding that complementary services do
not necessarily need to be software-based and extend the platforms
functionalities, but do also add value to the platform in the form of supporting
services.
The actors providing all these types of complementary assets and services
constitute the Bitcoin business ecosystem.
31
One could argue that miners represent a specific type of actors apart from the others because
they are essential for transaction verification purposes and the security of the network. However,
since their operations constitute a commercial activity in the sense that they get a monetary
reward, we assume them to be part of the Bitcoin business ecosystem.
18
32
eventually crossing the tipping point (Gawer, 2009a: p.2-3), i.e. assembling the
majority of users, developers and entrepreneurs on that specific platform.19
4.1.2.1 Definition
We define the Bitcoin business ecosystem as the set of companies and
projects that build complementary infrastructure, applications, products and
services on top of and around the open technological building blocks to extend
the core Bitcoin platform's functionalities, thereby creating additional value for
the end-user.
For an in-depth discussion of the various network effects in crypto systems, consult the
following blog post:
Buterin, V. (2014, November 20). On Bitcoin maximalism, and currency and platform effects.
Available at https://blog.ethereum.org/2014/11/20/bitcoin-maximalism-currency-platformnetwork-effects/.
19
33
The first criterion does not include entities that use bitcoin as one of several
payment methods (except if other cryptocurrencies), nor ledger-agnostic
blockchain platforms that offer Bitcoin functionalities as an option among many
others. However, it allows for the inclusion of entities that do not directly use the
systems components, but provide complementary supporting services to the
ecosystem. An example of this would be data providers and media outlets that
specifically focus on Bitcoin.
The second criterion enables the inclusion of non-profit organisations and
projects that provide essential applications and services to the Bitcoin ecosystem,
but do not intend to make a profit. Similarly, it includes entities that actively
34
promote the platform and thereby create a favourable business environment for
other entities. Bitcoin advocacy groups constitute a good example of this.
35
ups, Bitcoin firms and Bitcoin projects which yielded some news articles and
special websites containing lists of specific projects and firms related to a
particular sector or sharing similar characteristics.24
Comment
Approximate date of foundation of the entity (not
necessarily date of legal incorporation).
Usually official launch date of product/service, in some
cases also the beta launch.
Approximate date of the entity leaving the ecosystem.
Reason of the entity leaving the ecosystem (also includes
pivots away from Bitcoin).
Refers to raising capital without issuing debt; can
include VC funding, crowdfunding, state grants, etc.
When a company or project changes its name.
All firms involved in a merger and/or acquisition.
Project or firm that stops meeting the inclusion criteria
after changing service offerings (can be partial in the
sense that they keep Bitcoin-related services, but begin
offering services unrelated to Bitcoin).
Examples include 29 Bitcoin wallets that are supercharging cryptocurrency by the Lets Talk
Payments blog (2016, February 19. Available at: https://letstalkpayments.com/29-bitcoin-walletsthat-are-supercharging-cryptocurrency/) and 36 bitcoin exchanges that are no longer with us by
the news site Brave New Coin (2015, October 23. Available at: http://bravenewcoin.com/news/36bitcoin-exchanges-that-are-no-longer-with-us/).
24
36
25
accuracy of the data. However, this proved to be difficult because in some cases,
it was often complicated to even find a single data source.
39
framework was then again tested with entities previously added to the dataset to
ensure consistency.
4.3.3 Framework
The resulting framework consists of 22 different market segments and is
presented in table 2. Some market segment names have been truncated to
ensure better readability of labels in the following network graph.
We believe this framework to provide an adequate categorisation of all
existing products and services in the Bitcoin business ecosystem. Naturally,
there are some trade-offs that need to be done to accommodate the diversity of
offerings and still provide an accurate scheme for assigning activities to market
segments without having an over complex and large framework. For instance,
the other services segment was added to include all products and services that
could not clearly be assigned to another market segment and would require the
creation of a special segment specific to them. Similarly, some market segments
are closely linked together and in some instances could be merged, but are
ultimately kept separate to better differentiate between the offerings of
competing firms. For example, some exchanges with powerful trading engines
are not classified as trading platforms if they lack advanced trading
functionalities such as leveraged trading. Nevertheless, this framework is
considered to be sufficient for our purpose.
40
Included Services
Description
Bitcoin Automated Telling Machines
Market Segment
Buy and/or sell bitcoins at fixed price + mark-up
ATM
Brokerage Services
(BrokServ)
Blockchain
Innovations
(BCInnov)
Small-value payments
Compliance
Data Services
(DataServ)
Developer Tools
(DevTools)
Exchange
Financial Services
(FinServ)
Gambling
Investment
Marketplace
Media
Micropayments
(MicroPaym)
Mining
Mixing
Money Transfer
Platform (MTP)
41
Description
Bitcoin advisory services, consulting, & training, oracles, proofof-reserve, rating/reputation/identity platforms, full node
manufacturer
Included Services
Notary Services
(NotaryServ)
All products and services that do not fit in one of the
other categories
Other Services
(OtherServ)
Payment Processor
(PaymPro)
Shopping
Trading Platform
(TradPlat)
Wallet
Exchanges and Brokerage Services are usually not classified as wallets, except if advertised and/or downloadable for non-customers
Comments:
Purely money transfer platforms not categorised as wallets; similarly, most wallets not classified as MTPs although in theory they could
Although most firms do provide APIs, only the companies with the most used and popular APIs have been assigned to the Developer Tools
enable this
segment
42
4.4 Design
4.4.1 Visualisation approach
For the purpose of this study, we use a visualisation approach, which
provides a good tool for purposes of exploration, discovery, and sense-making of
abstract data structures (Basole et al., 2011: p.314). Visualisation has
increasingly become popular as a strategic tool in the business research
literature for analysing the structure of company networks (Basole, 2009; Vaz et
al., 2013). Most research has focused on the study of inter-firm collaboration
networks and the formation of alliances (Venkatraman & Lee, 2004; Lomi &
Pattison, 2006; Schilling & Phelps, 2007; Rosenkopf & Padula, 2008; Basole,
2016). Visualisation is also often employed to identify key actors and determine
their strategic position within a specific ecosystem (Jiang et al, 2016), and to
compare the network structure across different industries (Rosenkopf &
Schilling, 2007).
Since the Bitcoin business ecosystem is still a nascent sector, it is
practically impossible to get yearly data on revenues and market share for each
market segment, let alone each entity. Whats more, there is no consistent record
of inter-firm relationships and partnerships. As a result, we map the structure
and dynamics of the business ecosystem not in terms of market share or size of
each industry, but by depicting the affiliations of each company to specific
market segments over time. The resulting network graph for each year is hence
determined by relationships between entities and market segments, with the
43
Colour
Code
Green
Grey
Comment
Blue
Yellow
Red
44
We then imported the adjacency matrix for each year as csv file into R. R27
is an open-source software environment and programming language widely used
for statistical analysis and graph computing. Custom scripts were written to
compute the network graph of each year and complementary statistics from the
dataset. We opted for the use of the Fruchterman-Reingold algorithm, a popular
force-directed layout algorithm commonly used for drawing undirected graphs
(Fruchterman & Reingold, 1991).
The affiliation network results in an undirected bipartite network graph
because it contains two types of nodes (vertices): entities are represented by
circles, and market segments are represented by black squares. Since the
relationship between the two types of nodes is determined by the affiliation of an
entity to a market segment, the links (edges) between the nodes on the network
graph are undirected. The size of the nodes representing entities, in the absence
of reliable and available operational business data, is proportional to the number
of market segments they are affiliated with (vertex degree): the more market
segments an entity is operating in, the bigger its node. Hence, bigger nodes
represent entities that are more diversified in the sense that they are operating
in more segments. The size of the nodes representing the market segments are
kept constant on purpose to avoid any confusion regarding a possible
interpretation of industry size.
For each year, a graph was created to visually show the evolution of the
business ecosystem structure in terms of entities and their affiliation with
market segments. As such, the use of popular tools and network measures from
27
social network analysis is not very useful in this case because the links only
represent affiliations to market segments instead of inter-firm relationships.
However, the visual representation of the business ecosystem structure does
enable to explore the emergence and evolution of market segments, the lifecycle
of companies and the evolution of their product and service offerings.
For modelling purposes, the most recent company or project name was used
throughout the whole analysis to avoid confusion in case of name changes.
Similarly, entities with multiple different brands and product names were
labelled with the company name, while entities with a company name completely
diverging from their only product or service brand were labelled with the brand
name
46
Chapter 5: Findings
5.1 Summary statistics
Table 2 offers an overview of the summary statistics obtained from the
dataset to get a first impression of the development of the Bitcoin business
ecosystem.
Cumulative
Funding (in
US$ million)
Funding (in
US$ million)
Rebranding
Partial
Pivots
Complete
Pivots
Mergers
Acquisitions
Number of
entities**
Exits*
Year
Foundations
2010
2011
47
55
2012
37
90
2.1
2.1
2013
181
20
266
5***
93.3
95.4
2014
196
27
442
11
13
369
464.4
2015
45
41
460
13
12
448.4****
912.8
Total
514
95
30
28
912.8
Notes:
* This variable includes companies that have completely pivoted away from Bitcoin, but does not
include companies that have been acquired by or have merged with other firms.
** This variable indicates the total number of entities that have existed in the respective year,
including the entities that exit or get acquired/merged later in the year.
*** Newly founded Satoshi Citadel Industries integrates Slush Pool and Coinmap, two services
previously operated by co-founders.
****Complete $116m funding round of 21 Inc. announced in Q1 2015, but probably aggregation of
previous rounds having occurred over the previous 18 months.
47
The data clearly shows that the business ecosystem has been growing
continuously since its inception in 2010 from a modest eight entities to well over
400 companies and projects in 2015. There have been several mergers and
acquisitions as well as pivots and rebranding attempts. The amount of funding
has literally skyrocketed since the first influx in 2012, as have the number of
entities joining the business ecosystem in 2013 and 2014. In the following two
sections, we will go into more detail regarding each variable and provide a
comprehensive overview of the findings.
Note:
The following network graphs are unfortunately not in the highest resolution due
to the formatting limits of the present paper. Interested readers should feel free to
contact the author for receiving a PDF copy of the network graphs that allows for
zoom-ins without compromising on quality.
48
Slashdot is a news website for tech-savvy people (www.slashdot.org). The paragraph, written
by Finnish Computer Science student and early Bitcoin Core collaborator Martti Malmi, was part
of a small marketing campaign initiated by the projects early contributors to attract more
attention.
28
49
an increase in the networks hash rate and the mining difficulty29, making it
difficult for individual users to get bitcoins through mining. As a result, the first
mining pools were founded to pool their members resources and smoothen
the pay-out. Additionally, exchanges were set up that let users trade bitcoins
for U.S. dollars and vice versa between themselves. These early exchanges
provided barely more than a simple order book and escrow services, and
processed deposits and withdrawals in fiat currency through the owners
personal bank accounts.
In addition, the first wallet service were launched to provide users a
convenient way of storing their bitcoins online in a web wallet, removing the
need for syncing with the network upon each launch of Bitcoin Core and storing
the entire blockchain.30 Interestingly, BitLaundry, a mixing service for privacyconscious users was launched to blend coins in order to obfuscate their
provenance. WeUseCoins, a website providing educational content about Bitcoin,
emerged to make the concept of Bitcoin more accessible to interested outsiders
(Media).
The increased use of more powerful Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) instead of CPUs also
contributed to an increase in the hash rate and ultimately the mining difficulty.
30 The reference client Bitcoin Core comes with an integrated wallet. Because it is a full node,
however, it requires the user to download the entire blockchain for verification purposes and
syncing with the network to get the latest blocks until any transaction can be made.
29
50
51
32than
Examples include among others Britcoin (GBP), Bitmarket.eu (EUR and others), Bitomat
(Polish Zloty) and Bitcoin Brasil (Brasilian Real).
32 James McCarthy in an interview with Vitalik Buterin from Bitcoin Magazine (October 15,
2012). Available at https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/interview-with-glbses-nefario1350319173.
31
52
applied to most of the projects and firms involved at that time, an observation
that will be further elaborated in the analysis chapter.
The discovery of the benefits gained by using Field Programmable Gate
Arrays (FGPAs) for mining further increased competition among miners and
drove the creation of new mining pools and firms specialising in the
manufacturing of mining hardware. New wallet providers also entered the
ecosystem to provide alternative storage options. Many of them took full custody
of user funds to avoid less tech-savvy users having to bother with key
management.
For the first time, businesses did start diversifying their offerings and
entering new market segments: Blockchain.info was expanding their wallet
service to provide data on the status of the network as well as a block explorer,
while BTCC (then BTC China) started offering consumer wallets in addition to
its exchange. Similarly, for the first time companies did not directly launch the
same year they were founded: this applied to exchanges and trading platforms
Kraken and Mirror as well as mining firm Butterfly Labs that was working on
the development of new mining equipment.
The business ecosystem also witnessed the first casualties with wallet
provider MyBitcoin being hacked and customer funds stolen as well as the firstever bitcoin exchange Bitcoin Market being forced to shut down after PayPal had
blocked their account.
53
54
(blockchain
innovations).
Remarkably,
the
business
ecosystem welcomed its first advocacy group with the creation of the Bitcoin
Foundation (other services), acting as a public spokesman for Bitcoin and the
business ecosystem.
A lot of new developments also happened within existing market segments.
The business ecosystem got its first printed news magazine with the foundation
and launch of Bitcoin Magazine and benefitted from the entrance of many new
exchanges and brokerage service providers that offered alternatives to existing
services. Some of the brokers also began offering their customers a consumer
wallet to provide a better customer experience. Newly founded Bitbox became the
first exchange to also provide payment processing services for merchants.
Increasing interest from the broader financial system and the inability for large
investors to easily participate in the price speculation led to the emergence of
bitcoin-focused investment funds and the foundation of an institutional exchange
and trading platform (itBit, still in development at that time). Similarly, lending
platform BTCjam and alternative stock exchanges and crowdfunding platforms
The idea of using small subunits of bitcoins to represent existing assets that can then be
traded on the Bitcoin blockchain has been first raised in early 2012 on the Bitcoin forum (User
phelix on March 1, 2012, available at https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=66868.0) and has
gained attention under the name Coloured Coins. Systems such as Omni and Counterparty,
however, use a different mechanism to create and release new assets. There exist currently
several implementations of coloured coins.
33
55
56
57
pressure on bitcoin companies dealing with fiat currency and holding customer
funds to comply with existing KYC (Know your customer) and AML (Anti-money
laundering) regulations, requiring them to do rigorous background checks of
their customers. As a result, specialised blockchain intelligence and compliance
firms emerged to help businesses with identity verification processes, flag
suspicious activities and provide legal advisory services (compliance). A new
industry emerged to increase user adoption by providing a simple and tangible
way to acquire bitcoins (ATM). Bitcoin ATM manufacturers and operators
teamed up to build physical ATM networks all over the world. Moreover, some
began revisiting Bitcoins potential as cheap and reliable payment system, and
started building internal money transfer platforms to offer customers
instantaneous off-chain payments. Similarly, so-called rebittance34 firms did
arise to build bitcoin-based remittance platforms in emerging countries to
compete with existing international money transfer providers. Furthermore,
newly founded firm ChangeTip unveiled a tipping platform powered by bitcoin
micropayments and Bitwall launched a paywall for accessing quality content via
bitcoin micro-transactions (micropayments). F
ranging started to emerge that do not fit a particular category, and are thus
grouped together for simplicity in the other services market segment. In 2013,
those services included consulting and training providers, the development of
rating, identity and reputation platforms as well as the inception of oracle
services acting as trusted providers of information of the state of the outside
world to smart contracts living on the blockchain. According to the dataset, the
34
59
60
events through what can be called event derivatives, and firms like Elliptic
launched insurance services to add consumer protection mechanisms for their
customers. A growing number of special software firms did specialise in
providing software solutions for accounting or legal purposes, white-label
exchanges and mining configurations, to only name a few. Similarly, the first
hardware wallets were being released to make secure key management trivial
for professionals as well as inexperienced users. Moreover, with the Bitcoin
Foundation struggling, newly founded advocacy group Coin Center attempted to
taking over that role and address policy issues regarding cryptocurrencies,
starting a dialogue with regulatory authorities to proactively promote favourable
regulation. The foundation of Blockstream also marked a difference in that it was
the first time that a company formally employs core developers to focus on the
protocol development.
Nearly all market segments did grow rapidly: several new projects began
focusing on the fourth aspect of the value proposition by building additional
networks on top of the core platform, and the use of Bitcoin as a cheap payment
system become more popular. Additionally, the rise of developer platforms
providing interfaces to the backbone protocol and other applications providing
similar middleware services facilitated the development of applications by other
companies and drastically reduced time, costs and complexity. We can also
observe that firms started increasingly pursuing diversification strategies.
However, the business ecosystem also experienced its largest challenge up
to then in early 2014 when one of the first and largest exchanges Mt. Gox went
bankrupt following a continuous theft that went unnoticed for some years and
61
resulted in the loss of over 650000 bitcoins. This key event let the business
ecosystem fall into a state of shock and attracted lots of negative media
attention, which severely tarnished Bitcoins image and public standing. The
shutdown added further downward pressure to bitcoins market price, which had
already been falling since the end of 2013. Nevertheless, this event also raised
awareness among companies, developers and users that more efforts should be
put into building secure infrastructure and improving key management services.
Moreover, a number of both established and newly founded exchanges set out to
restore confidence in the system by providing more reliable alternatives and not
compromising on security and customer support.
62
63
the wide variety of products and services within the existing market segments.
Micropayments, notary services and ATM exhibited the largest relative growth
of all market segments. The majority of active entities had already been
established and some began further diversifying their offerings. We can observe
that there are a growing number of entities exiting the business ecosystem for
various reasons that will be explained in the following section.
5.3.1 Diversity
The Bitcoin business ecosystem has evolved from a small community
formed around an experimental decentralised digital currency and payment
system into a large sector composed of distinct, but complementary subindustries that offer a wide variety of products and services, that has expanded
beyond simple financial services. A staggering 22 different market segments
have emerged over the last 6 years, creating a diversity of service offerings
ranging from currency and payment applications to middleware and supporting
services as well as non-currency applications. Some applications are built to add
further capabilities to the core platform, while other services are emerging to
offer end-users a variety of channels to easily access the platform and enhance
the convenience of using the additional functionalities. The goal is to make it
64
look simple on the surface for end-users so that they do not have to bother with
the complex technology that sits underneath35
While the majority of applications and services are replicated or derived
from existing traditional industries but specifically tailored to Bitcoin36, there
are also several new services and applications enabled by the platform that have
not existed before in any established industry.37
Appendix A summarises the date of emergence of each market segment in
chronological order and the nature of its respective first product or service.
Furthermore, it shows the total number of firms and projects operating in each
specific segment per year, with the number in brackets representing the number
of companies that have not launched operations yet
The findings demonstrate that services related to the acquisition and sale of
bitcoins have been operating since the early days in 2010, quickly followed by the
emergence of services that allow the spending and trading of bitcoins in 2011. In
2012, we witness the arrival of segments focusing on the first non-currency
applications as well as the first API platform for other developers. Moreover,
Bitcoin gets its first advocacy group and formal sponsor of core developers. 2013
marks the final year of the formation of new market segments with the
emergence of bitcoin ATM networks, compliance services, micropayment
applications and money transfer platforms. During the two following years, there
A result of this, however, is the reintroduction of centralised intermediaries that hold custody
of customer funds, something that Bitcoin was specifically attempting to eliminate.
36 This applies for example to supporting services such as data providers, news outlets, consulting
and advisory firms, as well as currency applications such as payment platforms, exchanges,
investment vehicles, financial services and brokerage services.
37 This concerns market segments such as the mining industry, mixing services and blockchain
innovations.
35
65
are no new segments emerging in the ecosystem, but there is growing diversity
with the rise of new distinctive product and services within and across the
existing market segments. The Bitcoin business ecosystem has evolved into a
sort of internal economy that coexists parallel with the outside/real economy
and is connected to the latter by gateways such as exchanges, brokerage services
and payment processors. Hence, it could be self-sustainable in theory, although
because of the mostly speculative use of the underlying tokens rather than the
use as a currency, it is too dependent on gateways that act as a bridge to the
outside world.
The results also illustrate that there are some market segments that are
more densely populated than others: we can observe that Exchange is the
largest market segment for each year in terms of number of firms, followed by
Wallet, Brokerage Services and Payment Processor. Interestingly, with
exception of the wallet providers, these are all services that act as gateways
connecting the bitcoin economy to the outside economy, demonstrating the
importance of entry and exit points to the Bitcoin business ecosystem. Trading
Platform, Data Services and ATM (including both Bitcoin ATM manufacturers
and operators) have also massively grown over the last years in terms of number
of firms, as have Money Transfer Platform, Financial Services and
Developer Tools.
66
5.3.2 Diversification
5.3.2.1 Overview
67
68
5.3.2.3 Patterns
Appendices B, C and D feature three sub-graphs of the Bitcoin business
ecosystem network graphs from 2013 to 2015 that highlight entities that are
affiliated with at least four different market segments. An interesting
observation is that there seems to be a concentration around a few specific
market segments: the most diversified firms tend to be mostly active in the
Wallet, Brokerage Services, Exchange, Payment Processor, Money
Transfer Platform and Financial Services industries. This is equally true for
companies operating in more than two market segments. This suggests that
there are some key market segments that are especially attractive for companies
to enter and/or constitute an indispensable complementary service offering for
their customers. Indeed, when analysing the diversification strategies from
individual firms, we notice that there are a set of companies that provide a full
service model aimed at offering a comprehensive customer experience by
combining convenient purchases and sales of bitcoin, secure storage, customer
protection features and easy payments. This model also usually includes trading
infrastructure and merchant services in an attempt to establish a universal goto internal platform that offers users nearly all functionalities within the
company platform itself. We can also see that a small number of firms pursue
the strategy of vertical integration by engaging in mining operations themselves
in addition to providing a variety of other services: this ensures frequent
revenues in bitcoin if they have sufficient hashing power in order to subsidise
and fund their other offerings.
69
Figure 8: Funding
In the first two years, projects and firms had to rely on internal funding for
financing their operations, although there are no figures available to quantify
the amount. This changed in 2012, when the first VC money entered the Bitcoin
business ecosystem: BitInstant and Coinbase received $2.1 million, and wallet
service Armory did a successful but limited crowdfunding of $2611.
70
In 2013, total funding had grown to at least $93 million shared between 38
firms. In addition, the meta-protocol project Omni Layer (then Mastercoin
Project) performed a successful token sale through crowdfunding valued at some
$500000. Coinbase secured a whopping $31.6 million after adding money
transfer and API developer platforms to their offerings, followed by the exchange
Bitstamp ($10m) and newly founded but not yet launched Circle ($9m) and 21
Inc. ($5.05m). A number of new institutional exchanges also receive funding to
build secure and reliable alternatives to market leader Mt. Gox and to facilitate
access for institutional investors.
In 2014, a staggering amount of almost $369 million was distributed among
a record number of 96 firms, with seven companies receiving additional funding
but not disclosing the amounts. Mining firm BitFury and secure vault provider
Xapo both raised $40 million each, followed by Blockchain.info ($30.5m) and
BitPay ($30m).
In 2015, the total amount of funding received by 69 companies increased to
over $448m, with 13 additional firms not disclosing the amounts raised. 21 Inc.
managed to get a record amount of $116 million, although it appears that this
number is an accumulation of several founding rounds that have taken place
over one year and a half. Coinbase comes next in what can be described as the
largest funding round ever occurred in the Bitcoin business system ($75m),
quickly followed by the consumer platform Circle who raised $30 million in
addition to previous funding rounds.
71
5.3.3.2 Patterns
We can observe that VC funding has literally exploded in 2013 and the
subsequent years after first entering the business ecosystem in 2012. While most
funding in the beginning has gone to a minority of firms, a rising number of
companies has secured growth capital in 2014 and 2015. Nevertheless, the
results clearly show that there is only a limited number of firms that have
continuously received funding over the years, often in several rounds. This
suggests that companies that raised considerable amounts in the past are likely
to engage in subsequent funding rounds. Although it is difficult to attribute
funding to specific market segments since many firms are active in more than
one, we notice that the majority of funding has flowed to firms that are providing
integrated consumer and merchant services (money transfer platforms,
brokerage services, wallets, payment processors) as well as gateways and mining
hardware manufacturers. In 2014 and 2015, developer platforms are also raising
significant amounts, which shows the growing importance of middleware
services. The findings suggest that funding needs differ among entities, and that
they increase with the business ecosystem maturing. Supporting services have
not raised significant amounts so far, which might be due to their less capitalintensive nature.
72
38
Exit ratio = (Exits per year)/[Number of companies (active and inactive) per year]
73
74
Some projects have been paused or shut down following the departure of the
founders and lead developers, while a growing number of companies in the last
two years have been forced to shut down due to a lack of interest in their services
and the inability to achieve profitability and secure funding. In 2014 and 2015,
some mining hardware manufacturers were filing for bankruptcy for their
incapacity of delivering pre-ordered mining rigs on time. During the same time
period, a growing number of companies have left the Bitcoin business ecosystem
by pivoting towards blockchain-based solutions that do not require the use of
bitcoin.
75
eliminating competitors. The number of acquisitions has risen from five in 2013
to 11 in 2014 and even 13 in 2015, with brokerage service provider and payment
processor Coinify holding the record with a total of three acquisitions. The
findings do indicate that acquisitions are not specific to a particular market
segment, but happen throughout a variety of subindustries.
According to the dataset, there has only been one merger per year in the
business ecosystem since 2013. Two of the three total mergers have been related
to mining firms, effectively combining hardware manufacturing with datacenter
and cloud mining infrastructure.
5.3.5.2 Pivots
39
activities. Some firms have undertaken partial pivots, i.e. expanded services to
incorporate activities not based on the Bitcoin platform while still providing
bitcoin-related services. Other companies have realised complete pivots by
leaving the Bitcoin business ecosystem and migrating to other platforms40. There
are also a small number of firms that have pivoted within the ecosystem,
effectively completely switching to segments that were not related to previously
offered, now dropped services. There are reasons to believe that lagging user
adoption and inflated expectations from investors and entrepreneurs alike have
a negative impact on the profitability and growth expectations of a number of
bitcoin companies, causing them to focus on other markets. Similar as for the
exits, the results indicate that entities that are more diversified are less likely to
pivot.
5.3.5.3 Rebranding
78
Similarly, a growing number of firms have opted for rebranding in the last
two years, with some minor exceptions in the years before. The main reason has
been the elimination of specific pre- and suffixes41 to appear more serious and to
disguise the underlying technology powering the applications and services in an
attempt to increase mainstream user adoption by simplifying the understanding
of the services. Similarly as for the acquisitions, there is no particular market
segment that is more subject to rebranding initiatives than others, although one
could argue that they are more likely to apply to companies providing services to
mainstream consumers.
When combining the number of pivots and rebranding in a single figure (see
figure 13), we can observe that 2013 marks a turning point for the Bitcoin
business ecosystem: a number of entities attempt to reposition themselves either
by changing their brand characteristics and/or pursuing other activities not
directly related to Bitcoin. This trend is accelerating in 2014 and 2015, which
suggests that the business ecosystem is slowly maturing.
41
80
key management, as well as the rise of developer tools and platforms facilitating
interaction with the protocol and other applications. These applications and
services, among many others, did emerge after the market expressed demand for
solving a particular issue.
81
As a result, the ecosystem basically split in two parts: On the one side,
there is the unregulated economy composed of services in which the lack of
regulation and pseudonymity are considered to be features and part of their
value proposition. This mainly applies to specific industries such as mixing
services, online black markets, gambling sites, but also to particular actors from
other industries, which differentiate themselves by offering services without
prior KYC (Know your customer) and AML (Anti-money laundering) checks42,
often at a premium for increased privacy. This part of the business ecosystem is
still self-organising and to a greater or lesser extent self-regulating as it was
before. On the other side, there is an emerging regulated economy that consists
of usually formally incorporated firms who adapt to the new regulatory
environment. These firms are mostly operating in market segments serving
consumer needs, which are subject to strict rules. The regulatory requirements
contribute to the emergence of new market segments such as compliance firms,
and the rise of software companies providing specialised accounting and tax
reporting
software,
but
also
the
appearance
of
legal
consulting
and
over
proportionately
concerned
by
complying
with
time-consuming
regulatory requirements and costly applications for licenses, while other market
segments either emerge or thrive as a consequence of the increasing regulatory
42
83
but differ in scope and infrastructure needs. The perceived nature of Bitcoin by
users and network participants is constantly evolving, and so are the
applications and services built around the platform.
84
low or high, although they tend to have increased in general over the last years
mainly due to the large number of established companies that are well funded.
85
86
approach with less resistance and positive comments from various central banks,
supervisory authorities and other government agencies have helped Bitcoin get
more legitimacy in the eyes of the general public, something that has been
missing for many years. As a consequence, the business ecosystem has attracted
further attention, investment and talent.
87
by the traditional press, who mostly focused on the currency aspect of Bitcoin
and largely omitted pointing out the value of the underlying network, may have
delayed increased adoption by deterring potentially interested "outsiders" in
their decision to join the ecosystem. The repeated emphasis on the unregulated
and allegedly anonymous features of bitcoins gave Bitcoin the image of an
obscure kind of Internet money that served as a perfect tool for criminal
activities. Along with market failures due to security breaches and exit scams,
this also attracted scrutiny from regulators and authorities. However, public
perception has recently shifted with the emergence of the "blockchain hype" that
has emanated from Bitcoin and the influx of renowned investors and VC firms.
The systems enhanced public standing in the mainstream has attracted more
investment and was partly responsible for increased adoption.
45
many speculators, but also investors and hence expanded the number of
stakeholders in the ecosystem. With the increased amount of money at stake,
various stakeholders vocally advocate for improvements to their benefit and it
has become increasingly difficult to align the interests of all participants. There
are some market segments that are more directly impacted by the market price
than others. For some industries, the market price plays a dominating role
regarding profitability, while especially for non-currency applications, it
currently only plays a minor role46 Some market segments benefit from high
volatility, while others suffer due the loss of faith from consumers incurred by
the same volatility. Similarly, many firms pay their employees in bitcoin and/or
get revenues in bitcoin, and are thus subject to volatility if they do not directly
convert them to fiat.
However, the market price can also have a huge influence on a specific
market segment and at the same time the whole system itself. The best example
is the mining sector, who ensures the verification of transactions which
constitutes one of the most crucial components of the Bitcoin platform: the
higher the market price per bitcoin, the higher the potential reward, which leads
to an increase in the total hash rate because more miners want to participate. At
the same time, the market price is also an important proxy for assessing the
security of the underlying blockchain47: the higher it is, the more costly an
The number of outstanding bitcoins refers to the total number of bitcoins mined. However, this
does not take into account the bitcoins that have been lost forever due to private key losses,
hardware failures, proof-of-burns, etc.
46 It might become more important in the future if the price were to rise to new record levels.
However, due to the close relationship between public perception and market price, non-currency
applications are also affected by high price volatility, albeit to a lesser extent.
47 In this context, security refers to the probability of the blockchain not being altered
retroactively.
89
attempted 51% attack will become and thus in theory less likely, thereby
increasing the value of Bitcoin as a secure because immutable system. Hence,
the market price not only has a huge impact on profitability of miners, but also
on the security of the network.
Finally, the market price and public perception are also closely linked:
Glaser, Haferkorn, Weber and Zimmermann (2014) show that media coverage
and positive sentiment exert a significant influence on bitcoins price volatility.
Entities active in certain market segments still are not incorporated and lack traditional
organisational structure because it is not deemed necessary for their purposes. This applies
48
90
venture capital and gain more legitimacy among potential customers. However,
the infrastructure built by these early firms was still immature and could not
handle loads of traffic. Additionally, they were also frequently insecure, which
led to a number of security breaches and hacks.
However, with the market price soaring in 2013 and Bitcoin receiving a lot
of attention, a new wave of firms entered the ecosystem and introduced notable
changes: successful business people and entrepreneurs with professional
experience at major financial institutions and technology firms joined
established companies or founded their own, attracting venture capital, talent
and networks of influential people. The tone of the conversation also slowly
changed: some companies began marketing the advantages of Bitcoin over other
alternatives and turned away from the ideological motivation of creating a
radical different financial system entirely built on Bitcoin. The websites and
presentations of the companies became more professional, customer service and
support were improved and nice graphical user interfaces (GUIs) were
introduced to facilitate ease of use for the mainstream user. As a result, the
business ecosystem gained more legitimacy and credibility among the general
public, which encouraged previously sceptical outsiders to join the platform.
mainly to darknet black markets, mixing services, some gambling sides and unregulated
exchanges.
91
economic, political and social nature, and the magnitude of the impact on the
ecosystem does vary. Examples of positive effects include the Wikileaks financial
blockade in 2011 as well as the Cypriot financial crisis and the resulting partial
bail-in of bank customers in March 2013, two events that both raised awareness
of bitcoin in the general public and provoked an influx of new users. Similarly,
more long-term economic turmoil such as the hyperinflation in Venezuela and
Argentina coupled with strict capital controls make Bitcoin an interesting
alternative. On the other hand, events such as the People's Bank of China and
the Chinese government effectively restricting the use of bitcoin for financial
institutions in late 2013 have a negative impact on the ecosystem by causing the
market price to plunge and thereby slowing down the ecosystem's growth.
92
also true: since Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are closely linked, massive
technological deficiencies in one system can severely impact confidence and
public perception in another system.
6.3 Discussion
After having explored the emergence and evolution of the distinct market
segments and identified the main change drivers and factors leading to the
expansion, we will discuss the findings in the light of the existing theory. The
findings indicate that the Bitcoin business ecosystem shares some characteristics
and evolutionary trajectories with other business ecosystems, but also exhibits
distinct patterns that have not been highlighted yet in previous research.
The findings confirm previous research (Moore, 1998; Peltoniemi & Vuori,
2004) that the emergence and development of a business ecosystem is mainly
self-organised through decentralised decision-making by a variety of interacting
entities. This applies especially to the context of a cryptocurrency system like
Bitcoin that has no formal owner nor platform dominator who dictates the rules.
Instead, a diverse set of independent organisations are interacting around the
common platform and create macroeconomic dynamics at the ecosystem level
through their individual conscious choices at the individual organisation level.
These interactions are characterised by both competition and cooperation at the
same time (Iansiti & Levien, 2004; Merry, 1995): the entities are competing for
market share in their respective market segments, but also collaborate (Moore,
2006) on various occasions because it is in their best interest to contribute to the
93
(Smith &
Stacey, 1997). The actions of a specific entity can unexpectedly contribute to the
creation of a totally new market segment and/or a new business model that has
not been anticipated before. As a result, the business ecosystem witnesses the
emergence of a huge diversity in offerings, distributed among a variety of niches
occupied by specialised entities. This huge diversity creates more options and
services for end-users and enhances the ecosystems resilience and robustness
(Iansiti & Richards, 2006), because it reduces the ecosystems dependence on a
94
small number of specific market segments and actors, as was the case in the
early days of Bitcoin. Another result of the diversity is the creation of new spaces
(Moore, 2006), i.e. business opportunities that did not exist before: Bitcoin has
enabled the formation of new industries and types of firms with distinctive
business models. A good example is the emergence of the mining industry, which
consists of hardware manufacturers, datacenter providers and mining pools; as
well as the appearance of mixing services, specialised developer platforms and
wallet providers among others. It is this enormous diversity that makes the
business ecosystem attractive for users as well as companies.
The findings also suggest that the evolution of the Bitcoin business
ecosystem has initially been significantly dependent on the public perception of
the outside and the market price, two factors that have not been recognised so
far as significant change drivers by previous research on other business
ecosystems.
In
fact,
these
dependences
amongst
others
establish
95
result increase the market price; and on the other hand creating additional value
through innovation-spurred competition (Liu et al., 2015) between themselves.
While regulation is considered to be part of the forces shaping the paths of a
business ecosystem (Liu et al., 2015), it plays a far more influential role in the
Bitcoin business ecosystem due to the nature of its main value proposition. In
the early stages, the business ecosystem was mainly self-regulating in the
absence of any governmental or regulatory intervention. However, increased
media attention, the use of bitcoin for illicit activities and massive price growth
attracted scrutiny from regulators and caused a flood of diverging regulatory
responses and interventions. As a result, the Bitcoin business ecosystem
basically split in two parts: on the one side the regulated economy consisting of
entities that have adapted to external constraints (Peltoniemi & Vuori, 2004) by
complying with the new rules and regulations, and on the other side the
unregulated economy that does not bother adapting and continues regulating
and organising itself49. This development supports Peltoniemis (2006: p.13)
argument that frequently interventions from the public sector either [inhibit]
self-organisation or [create] enabling structures for self-organisation. Similarly,
these interventions in the Bitcoin business ecosystem convey both regulationdriven as well as regulation-delayed innovation as described by Liu et al. (2015).
We claim that self-organisation in the Bitcoin business ecosystem has mainly
taken place in the early stages when stakes and public attention were still quite
low, and that after the interventions from regulators, adaptability to the
In contrast to many other business ecosystems, this is possible thanks to Bitcoins
decentralised nature that makes it practically impossible to censor or prevent undesired
transactions, as well as the frequent use of special software enabling anonymous communication
and the set-up of practically unseizable hidden services (ex: TOR network)
49
96
regulatory environment has been a major change driver for the largest part of
the business ecosystem, including the unregulated part that may benefit from
the inconveniences imposed on their regulated counterparts.
Interestingly, the evolution of perception of the platforms value proposition
and the resulting services built upon different interpretations of the platforms
aspects confirm Moores (2006: p.58) observation that entities in a business
ecosystem tend to have different images and understandings of the business
ecosystem, even in a highly aligned situation. We assume the changes in the
organisational structure of firms, although not described in other papers, to be
similar in other nascent business ecosystems with low barriers to entry. Other
factors such as the influence of environmental dynamics (Mkinen & Dedahayir,
2012; Tiwani et al., 2010), technological advances Mkinen & Dedahayir, 2012)
and competing or rival ecosystems (Moore, 1993) play a role in the Bitcoin
business ecosystem too, albeit a smaller one.
Finally, we agree with Iansiti & Richards (2006) that the success of a
business ecosystem is based on the ability to improve value of products and
services, the ability to persist external influences and the ability to create niches
and opportunities for new firms. The Bitcoin business ecosystem has exhibited
all three aspects and has retained its first-mover advantage by remaining the
largest and most valuable cryptocurrency system in the world.
97
Chapter 7: Conclusion
7.1 Summary
Emerging from a quiet and barely noticed launch in early 2009, the Bitcoin
platform has undergone significant technological changes and improvements.
What started as a small experiment and proof of concept, has developed in less
than seven years into a large ecosystem composed of more than twenty different
subindustries that have formed around the core platform and provide a wide
range of diverse products and services.
The purpose of this paper was to visually explore how the structure of the
Bitcoin business ecosystem has changed since its inception and to identify the
change drivers. To answer these questions, data was collected on 514 firms and
projects whose operations have been related to Bitcoin in some way, resulting in
a unique longitudinal dataset covering a time window from 2010 to 2015
included. A market segment framework was developed to group the various
products, applications and services into mutually exclusive segments. The
framework was subsequently applied to the dataset and network graphs for each
year were generated to show the evolutionary dynamics of the business
ecosystem structure in terms of the affiliations between entities and market
segments over time.
Results show that the Bitcoin business ecosystem surrounding the Bitcoin
network provides a very diverse set of offerings, that range from currency
applications over supporting services and middleware services to non-currency
98
99
emphasised and dominant at various points in time. Moreover, the low barriers
to entry at the beginning and technological advances in certain subindustries
and at the protocol level have been influencing the evolutionary structure of the
business ecosystem. Furthermore, the results also suggest that the business
ecosystem has been very dependent on the market price of bitcoin, which is
closely related to the public perception and standing of the system and
technology. Some market segments have been more affected by this than others,
although one can assert that Bitcoins public standing has improved significantly
since 2014 and the dependence on the volatile price has declined with the
ecosystem slowly maturing. Finally, environmental dynamics, competition with
other ecosystems and the change in the organisational firm structure have had a
certain influence on the evolution of the business ecosystem as a whole.
7.2 Implications
7.2.1 Theoretical implications:
The study has contributed to the research on the evolution of business
ecosystems in general by providing a comprehensive data-driven exploration of
the dynamics of an emergent industry and its components. In particular, it
figures among the first studies to explore and analyse a platform-based business
ecosystem that has no platform owner or leader and whose functionalities enable
the creation of a new kind of money, which constitutes a fairly new knowledge
domain. Specifically, this is the first paper that thoroughly explores the evolution
of a business ecosystem formed around a decentralised cryptocurrency system
100
since its existence using a visualisation approach. Moreover, the findings are
based on a unique longitudinal dataset that is freely available and can be used
for future research. The study also analyses the factors that influence the
emergence and evolution of the Bitcoin business ecosystem and compares them
with prior research, highlighting the dominant role of regulation. Additionally, it
introduced a market segment framework that can also be used for further
research on decentralised cryptocurrency systems and their surrounding
business ecosystems.
101
102
segment framework might not have captured all relevant segments, or in some
cases closely related activities may have inaccurately been categorised
separately.
103
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2010
8 (1)
20 (2)
2011
12 (3)
29 (6)
2012
37 (10)
28 (6)
13 (2)
69 (12)
2013
70 (7)
38
23
106 (12)
2014
70 (2)
33
22
96 (6)
2015
12
Data Services
Brokerage Services
Bitcoin poker site (Seals with Clubs); betting site (Bets of Bitcoin)
13 (1)
13 (2)
14 (2)
38 (12)
11 (1)
19 (5)
13 (1)
32 (1)
69 (9)
9 (1)
23 (1)
14
41
69
Media
First Product/Service
10
Market Segment
Mining
Exchange
Mixing
Gambling
Wallet
Investment
59 (1)
Marketplace
51 (5)
45 (3)
18 (4)
39 (6)
15
23 (7)
16
7 (3)
17 (2)
29
4 (2)
27 (4)
Payment Processor
9 (3)
Trading Platform
Shopping
Developer Tools
118
2012
2 (1)
2013
27 (4)
12 (6)
2014
34 (1)
29
13 (1)
2015
9 (3)
25 (3)
9 (1)
Developer Tools
Financial Services
2011
12 (6)
3 (1)
2010
First Product/Service
Market Segment
Blockchain
Innovations
Notary Services
35
28 (2)
32 (2)
11
18 (1)
13 (10)
9 (1)
9 (1)
10 (5)
4 (1)
31 (1)
24 (4)
14 (7)
Other Services
ATM
Compliance
Micropayments
Money Transfer
Platform
119
120
121
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