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= 45 min and = 8 min. The service manager plans to have work begin

on the transmission of a customers car 10 min after the car is dropped of

and the customer is told that the car will be ready within 1 hour from

drop-of. What is the probability that the service manager cannot meet his

commitment?

A.

B.

C.

D.

0.3875

0.2676

0.5

0.6987

claims processing center is normally distributed with mean 38 and SD 6.

For each statement below, please specify True/False. If false, briefly

explain why.

between 38 and 44.

B. A training program for employees under the age of 30 at the center

would

be expected to attract about 36 employees.

Consider a company that has two diferent divisions. The annual profits from

the two divisions are independent and have distributions Profit1 ~ N(5, 3 2)

and Profit2 ~ N(7, 42) respectively. Both the numbers are in $ Million. Answer

the following questions about the total profit of the company in Million

Rupees. Assume that $1 = Rs. 45

probability for the annual profit of the company.

A. [169,911]

B. [99,981]

C. [340,740]

D. [-135,1215]

4. Specify the 5th percentile of profit (in Rupees) for the company

A. 170

B. 240

C. 310

D. 380

5. Which of the two divisions has a larger probability of making a loss in a

given year?

A. Division 1

B. Division 2

C. Both have equal chance

D. Cannot be determined

Topics: Sampling Variation and Central Limit Theorem

1) The manager of a warehouse monitors the volume of shipments made by

the delivery team. The automated tracking system tracks every package

as it moves through the facility. Based on current contracts with

customers, the weights should have = 22 lbs. and = 5 lbs. A sample of

25 packages is selected and weighed every day. Suppose the manager is

analyzing data of daily averages for a period of 100 days. What is the

approximate standard deviation of these data?

A. 5

B. 1

C. 0.5

D. 0.25

targeting individuals who have taken GMAT in 2012 and have expressed

interest in applying to FT top 20 b-schools. There are 40000 such

individuals with an average GMAT score of 720 and a standard deviation of

120. The scores are distributed between 650 and 790 with a very long and

thin tail towards the higher end resulting in substantial skewness. Which

of the following is likely to be true for randomly chosen samples of

aspirants?

a. The standard deviation of the scores within any sample will be 120.

b. The standard deviation of the mean of across several samples will

be 120.

c. The mean score in any sample will be 720.

d. The average of the mean across several samples will be 720.

3) At the beginning of your stay at ISB, you started a YouTube channel to host

videos of your b-school life so that your friends and family can remain

connected with you. You posted a total of 240 videos, roughly one for

every working day. You are analyzing the data dump available from Google

Analytics at the end of the year. Among your 500 Facebook friends, who

subscribed to your channel, the average number of views is 25 with a

standard deviation of 50. Google Analytics allows you to choose a random

sample of 25 friends and send them an online gaming credit for every

view of your channel as a token of appreciation. What is the approximate

probability that you will shell out less than 20 credits?

1. 30%

2. 6%

3. 0%

4. 1.25%

transactions made daily at an ATM machine located near the banks main

branch. Over the past 2 years, the average withdrawal amount has been

$50 with a standard deviation of $40. Since audit investigations are

typically expensive, the auditors decide to not initiate further

investigations if the mean transaction amount of the sample is between

$45 and $55. What is the probability that in any given week, there will be

an investigation?

C. 1.25%

D. 2.5%

E. 10.55%

F. 21.1%

5) The auditors from the above example would like to maintain the

probability of investigation to 5%. Which of the following represents the

minimum number transactions that they should sample if they do not

want to change the thresholds of 45 and 55?

A. 144

B. 150

C. 196

D. 250

1) For each of the following statements, indicate whether it is True/False. If

false, explain why.

the population size in order to produce representative results.

sample, including those that did not respond to questions.

than smaller surveys.

2) PC Magazine asked all of its readers to participate in a survey of their

satisfaction with diferent brands of electronics. In the 2004 survey, which

was included in an issue of the magazine that year, more than 9000

readers rated the products on a scale from 1 to 10. The magazine

reported that the average rating assigned by 225 readers to a Kodak

compact digital camera was 7.5. For this product, identify the following:

a) The population

b) The parameter of interest

c) The sampling frame

e) The sampling design

f) Any potential sources of bias or other problems with the survey or

sample

3) For each of the following statements, indicate whether it is True/False. If

false, explain why.

at a department store is $50 to $110, then $100 is a plausible value for

the population mean at this level of confidence.

purchase concessions is 30% to 45%, this means that fewer than half

of all moviegoers purchase concessions.

3. The 95% Confidence-Interval for only applies if the sample data are

nearly normally distributed.

4) What is the chance that mean of a random sample will be greater than

the mean of the population from which the sample is collected?

i) 0.25

j) 0.5

k) 0.75

l) 1

5) A book publisher monitors the size of shipments of its textbooks to

university bookstores. For a sample of texts used at various schools, the

95% confidence interval for the size of the shipment was 250 45 books.

Which, if any, of the following interpretations of this interval are correct?

H. 95% of shipments are between 205 and 295 books.

I. The procedure that produced this interval generates ranges that

hold the population mean for 95% of samples.

J. If we get another sample, then we can be 95% sure that the mean

of this second sample is between 205 and 295.

K. We can be 95% confident that the range 160 to 340 holds the

population mean.

1) For each of the following statements, indicate whether it is True/False. If

false, explain why.

The average purchase amount at a retailers online site is $80. The retailer

is evaluating a new design for its website that, it hopes, would encourage

shoppers to spend more. Let represent the average amount spent per

customer at its redesigned website.

d) The appropriate null hypothesis for testing the profitability of the new

design is H0: 80.

e) If the p-value of the test is less than , then we will always commit a

Type II error.

f) If the p-value of the test is less than , then we will always commit a

Type I error.

2) For each of the following statements, indicate whether it is True/False. If

false, explain why.

An accounting firm is considering ofering investment advice in addition to

its current focus on tax planning. Its analysis of the costs and benefits of

adding this service indicates that it will be profitable if 40% or more of its

current customer base use it. The firm plans to survey its customers. Let

denote the proportion of its customers who will use this service if ofered

and let p denote the percentage who say they will use this service in the

survey. The firm plans to run a test with the following hypotheses, H 0:

0.4; HA: > 0.4 and = 5%.

g) If H0 is true, then any sample will have a sample proportion (p) less than

0.40.

h) The p-value of the test of the null hypothesis in this example is the

probability that the investment service will be profitable.

them from rivals. These services can be expensive to provide. A bank

hopes to retain customers that keep high balances in accounts with low

interest rates. Typical customers at this bank keep an average balance of

$3,500 in savings accounts that pay 2% interest annually. The bank loans

this money to other customers at an average rate of 6%, thereby earning

a 4% profit on these balances. A random sample of 65 customers was

ofered a special personalized account. After 3 months, the average

balance in the 2% savings accounts for these customers was $5,000 (s =

$3,000). The personalized service costs the bank $50 extra per customer

per year over the costs of a normal savings account. Is this personalized

account ofering going to be more profitable than the normal savings

account?

i)

j)

k)

l)

Describe Type I and Type II errors in this context.

What is the necessary sample size to use a t-test?

Find the p-value of the test. Do the data reject the null hypothesis at

= 0.05. (Assume that the data meet the sample size condition.)

4) The weights of the cereal boxes follow a normal distribution with mean

16.3 oz and std dev 0.2 oz. Suppose the manager decides to stop the

packaging process and conduct an investigation if a cereal box with

weight lower than 15.9 oz is observed. What is the probability of Type I

error with this decision rule?

a. 0.0125

b. 0.025

c. 0.05

d. 0.10

5) Auditors at a small community bank randomly sample 100 withdrawal

transactions made daily at an ATM machine located near the banks main

branch. Over the past 2 years, the average withdrawal amount has been

$50 with a standard deviation of $40. Since audit investigations are

typically expensive, the auditors decide to not initiate further

investigations if the mean transaction amount of the sample is between

$45 and $55. Suppose that the mean transaction amount of the sample is

found to be $70, and consequently an investigation is held. However, no

reasons for the increase in withdrawal size are uncovered. This means

that:

e. The auditors commit a Type I error

f. The auditors commit a Type II error

g. Since no problems are uncovered, there is no error

d. Since the mean transaction amount is higher than $55, there

is no error

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