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HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

Aug 03, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

VIEW POINT

MAJOR CURRENCY
Close
USDINR
DXY INDX
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
DG USDINR

66.740
95.237
1.121
1.332
101.230
67.245

Prev.
Close
66.744
95.064
1.122
1.336
100.890
67.245

Chg.
-0.004
0.173
-0.001
-0.004
0.340
0.000

% Chg.
-0.01%
0.18%
-0.12%
-0.27%
0.34%
0.00%

GLOBAL INDICES
Prev.
Close

Close
SGX NIFTY
NIFTY
SENSEX
HANG-SENG
NIKKEI
SHANGHAI
S&P INDEX
DOW JONES
NASDAQ
FTSE
CAC
DAX

8632.0
8622.9
27981.7
21738.2
16250.0
2973.4
2157.0
18313.8
5137.7
6645.4
4328.0
10144.3

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY

8660.0
8636.6
28003.1
22129.1
16391.5
2971.3
2170.8
18404.5
5184.2
6694.0
4409.2
10330.5

Chg.
-28
-14
-21
-391
-141
2
-14
-91
-46
-49
-81
-186

(Provisional Rs. In Cr)

Segment

3-Aug-16

EQUITY

536

2-Aug-16
98.23

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

% Chg.
-0.32%
-0.16%
-0.08%
-1.77%
-0.86%
0.07%
-0.64%
-0.49%
-0.90%
-0.73%
-1.84%
-1.80%

Rupee Holds Strength Against Dollar; 200 DMA Violated


The rupee on Tuesday closed marginally up by 1 paisa at 66.73 a
dollar, advancing its gains for the sixth straight session against the US
dollar. Some dollar selling by banks and exporters on hopes of more
foreign capital flows helped the domestic currency gain for the sixth
straight session.
A weak dollar in the overseas market also boosted the rupee value
even as traders stayed cautious ahead of GST debate in the Rajya
Sabha Today. Foreign portfolio investors put in a net Rs 536 crore in
stock markets on Tuesday, as per provisional exchange data.

The rupee opened lower at 66.79 a dollar from last closing level of
66.74 at the Interbank Foreign Exchange (Forex) market and declined
further to 66.80 per dollar on initial dollar demand from importers.
In cross-currency trades, the rupee fell against the pound sterling to
close at 88.35 from 87.96 on Monday and dropped further against the
euro to settle at 74.68 from 74.50 previously.
Yen weaker after BoJ minutes shows negative interest rate
concerns
The yen weakened in early morning trade Today in Asia as minutes
from the Bank of Japan June board meeting suggested the impact of
negative interest rates need to be assessed.
Overnight, USD/JPY fell sharply, sliding to near one-year lows, as
Japan prime minister Shinzo Abe's cabinet approved a massive
stimulus package on Tuesday in an apparent last-ditch effort to boost
persistently low inflation.
The $274 billion stimulus is one of the Japanese government's largest
since the Financial Crisis and comes amid growing sentiment that
Japan's economy will need to rely upon fiscal, not monetary policy in
order to stave off deflation.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDINR Aug Future Daily Chart
USDINR SPOT DAILY CHART

USDINR SPOT DAILY CHART

200DMA and
Trend line Support Violated

Technical Observations

Pair has broken down below crucial support of its 200 DMA placed at 66.82

Pair has broken down below the support of upward sloping trend line, drawn on the above chart

Recent down move has also resulted in to bearish head and shoulder pattern on the daily chart, Target of pattern comes at 65.20.

Short term support for the pair is seen at 66.55, while resistance for the same would remain at 67.42.

Considering the technical evidences discussed above, we believe that rupee can appreciate against dollar to the extent of 65.20, which
is huge swing, Stop loss in the short positions should be kept at 67.43.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS
Aug Month

Last

S3

S2

S1

R1

R2

R3

USDINR

67.03

66.89

66.93

66.98

67.07

67.12

67.17

EURINR

75.08

74.67

74.78

74.93

75.20

75.31

75.46

GBPINR

88.80

88.01

88.19

88.50

88.98

89.16

89.46

JPYINR

65.82

64.65

64.95

65.38

66.12

66.42

66.86

Spot

Wkly
High

Wkly
Low

1-Mth.
High

1-Mth.
Low

52 Wk
High

52 Wk
Low

5 DMA

20 DMA

50 DMA

100 DMA

200 DMA

USDINR

67.27

67.05

68.22

66.70

68.79

63.72

66.93

67.13

67.23

66.97

66.83

EURINR

74.48

73.81

76.82

73.63

77.49

69.19

74.35

74.34

75.01

75.12

74.12

GBPINR

89.19

87.81

100.49

86.35

105.28

86.35

88.16

88.31

92.62

94.18

96.30

JPYINR

63.76

62.64

68.11

62.64

68.11

51.06

64.69

64.50

63.93

62.29

59.40

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open

High

Low

Close

Chg.

Vol

Vol Chg

Open
Interest

Chg.

SPOT USDINR

66.78

66.79

66.70

66.74

0.00

--

--

--

--

USDINR Aug FUT.

67.06

67.07

66.98

67.03

-0.02

1581942

83404

647405

59641

SPOT EURINR

74.57

74.82

74.55

74.70

0.21

--

--

--

--

EURINR Aug FUT.

74.93

75.17

74.90

75.08

0.16

67631

5408

43499

4318

SPOT GBPINR

88.07

88.42

87.94

88.39

0.46

--

--

--

--

GBPINR Aug FUT.

88.52

88.86

88.38

88.80

0.36

43177

-4353

72728

11705

SPOT JPYINR

65.01

65.75

64.99

65.63

0.32

--

--

--

--

JPYINR Aug FUT.

65.30

65.99

65.25

65.82

0.30

48433

3624

59291

22480

Currency

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

ECO. DATA RELEASED


Date Time

08/02/2016 10:30
08/02/2016 14:00
08/02/2016 14:30
08/02/2016 14:30
08/02/2016 18:00
08/02/2016 18:00

Country

JN
UK
EC
EC
US
US

Event

Period

Consumer Confidence Index


Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI
PPI MoM
PPI YoY
PCE Deflator MoM
PCE Deflator YoY

Jul
Jul
Jun
Jun
Jun
Jun

Survey

Actual

Prior

42
44
0.40%
-3.40%
0.20%
0.90%

41.3
45.9
0.70%
-3.10%
0.10%
0.90%

41.8
46
0.60%
-3.90%
0.20%
0.90%

Period

Survey

Prior

Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul F
Jul F
29-Jul
Jul
Jul F
Jul F
Jul

------52.7
52.9
-170k
51
-56

52.7
50.3
49.4
49
50.3
51.1
52.7
52.9
-11.20%
172k
50.9
51.5
56.5

ECO. DATA TODAY


Date Time

08/03/2016 07:15
08/03/2016 07:15
08/03/2016 07:30
08/03/2016 07:30
08/03/2016 10:30
08/03/2016 10:30
08/03/2016 13:30
08/03/2016 13:30
08/03/2016 16:30
08/03/2016 17:45
08/03/2016 19:15
08/03/2016 19:15
08/03/2016 19:30

Country

CH
CH
JN
JN
IN
IN
EC
EC
US
US
US
US
US

Event

Caixin China PMI Services


Caixin China PMI Composite
Nikkei Japan PMI Services
Nikkei Japan PMI Composite
Nikkei India PMI Services
Nikkei India PMI Composite
Markit Eurozone Services PMI
Markit Eurozone Composite PMI
MBA Mortgage Applications
ADP Employment Change
Markit US Services PMI
Markit US Composite PMI
ISM Non-Manf. Composite

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com
Disclosure:
I/We, Dilip Parmar and Vinay Rajani, MBA, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my views about the subject issuer (s) or securities. I also certify that no part of our
compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in his report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject instrument at the end of
the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report.
Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any position in Instruments NO
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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]