i
3
03.01 Overview
03.02 Product Market
03.03 Major Consumers
03.04 Demand Level
03.05 Projected Demand
03.06 Major Suppliers
03.07 Level of Supply
03.08 Projected Supply
03.09 Competition
03.10 Proposed Marketing Strategy
04. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
04.01 Operational Details and Structure
04.02 Machinery/Equipment Requirements
04.03 Housing
04.04 Raw materials and sources,
04.05 Infrastructural Requirements
PROJECTION
FINANCIAL
PROJECTIONS
AND
APPRAISAL
OF
COMMERCIAL
VIABILITY
CHAPTER TWO
INTRODUCTION
Project Background
The livestock sub-sector is an important component of the Botswana Agricultural
Economy. As in many developing countries, livestock plays many roles in the
socio-cultural lives of Batswana including provision of cash, food, draft power and
as well as poverty alleviation. Its importance derives from the fact that it is one of
the
key
contributors
to
the
national
economy.
The
poultry
industry
as
experienced phenomenal growth in the past 20 years. The poultry industry plays
a significant role in employment creation and poverty alleviation. In 2009 alone,
the industry employed over 4500 people compared to 3050 in 2007/8. This
represents an increase of 47.5%. The industry contributes significantly towards
poverty
alleviation
and
food
security
through
Livestock
Management
and
In terms of specific output, the livestock sub-sector can be broken into product
sub-groups such as, poultry meat, goat meat, lamb/mutton, beef, pork, milk and
eggs.
Table 1: Estimated Output of Livestock in Nigeria: 1994 2000
(000 tonnes)
199
199
199
199
199
199
200
200
2002
Product
Poultry
Eggs
Goat meat
Lamb/Mutton
Beef
Pork
4
63
377
80
85
183
25
5
73
399
88
94
192
31
6
74
422
92
96
197
39
7
76
4 35
95
101
200
43
8
77
436
96
102
202
45
9
82
450
101
107
208
47
100
0
88
465
107
113
215
50
101
1
95
487
114
117
228
55
103
107
514
129
126
239
62
1046
Milk
951
961
972
989
9 91
Source:
Reportthat
and the
Statement
of sector
Accounts
However,CBN
it isAnnual
noteworthy
livestock
has(1998-2000)
not provided sufficient
volumes and the capacity to meet the demand of teeming Nigerians for protein.
The annual growth rate has been low for most of the products, particularly for
poultry and eggs sub-group, whereas, the sub-group, if properly managed, could
impact greatly on the income and quality of life of the citizenry. This is because
poultry production is a socio-economic activity that has high rating for the reason
that the net return on investment is relatively higher than that of other animal
species and its contributing role to national economy cannot be overemphasized.
Thus it is the major source of high quality protein that is necessary for th
e
continued survival of the fast growing human population of the developing
economy.
Based on the foregoing, the proposed integrated poultry organisation intends to
invest in comprehensive poultry farming which entails the production of day oldchicks, eggs, broilers and layers.
Objective of Study
The objective of this study is to undertake a detailed investigation of th
e
technical, market, and financial feasibility of the project, bearing in mind the size
existing
3.
4.
This feasibility report will, thus provide the necessary guide, to not only th
e
project promoters in evaluating and carrying out their investment proposal, but
also to the financiers to enable them determine the viability and feasibility of the
project.
CHAPTER THREE
MARKET ANALYSIS
Overview
Nigeria, with a population of about 130 million is grossly underprovided with the
essential food component, which is protein. For example, data from the FOS,
CBN, and FAO indicate that from cattle, less than 2kg of beef is available to an
average Nigerian per year and just mere 4kg of eggs per annum is available to
each Nigerian. In fact, milk production has been nose diving or at best ha
s
remained constant since 1994.This scenario is compounded more so when the
volume of
egg supply is very low, being 10.56g per person per day as
production of protein based food items at competitive costs so that they would be
affordable to the general masses. Aside from the other necessary economic
reforms, massive investment poultry farming is one way of resolving the problem.
What is poultry farming? Poultry farming is the commercial production of poultry
birds, which include chicken, turkey, geese, pigeon, guinea and gamebirds. They
are easy to produce, and have a high meat to carcass ratio. Hence, they are
excellent products for meeting the protein needs of the populace.
Chicken
constitutes
about
90%
of
the
poultry
population
in
Nigeria.
Poultry Products
The main products of the proposed project include eggs, day-old chicks and
poultry meat, which will be generated from, culled birds (i.e. layers a
nd
breeders), and broilers.
offal and hatchery wastes will also provide additional income to the project.
Poultry dropping can be used as manure for vegetable gardening and feed
ingredient in fish farming.
Indeed, a wheelbarrow of fresh poultry droppings costs between N50.00
N80.00 in some parts of Lagos State at the moment.
r
hatchery wastes when grounded are good supply of calcium for growing birds.
Hence, they can also be sold in their re-cycled forms.
d
products of the projects will include:
(a)
Main Products
(b)
Day-Old Chicks
Farm Eggs
Poultry Meat
-
Broilers
By-products
Poultry droppings
PROPOSED CAPACITY
5000 Birds per production cycle is the minimum economic size to commence a
poultry farm, as the operational and fixed costs are justifiable. This is even more
relevant for a non-automated poultry farm. For a fully automated and integrated
farm, the recommended minimum economic size is between 8,000 and 10,000
birds.
The proposed project, which is an automated and integrated poultry farm, is
proposed to commence with 10,000 to 15,000 birds per production cycle in the
poultry section and 10,000 birds in the Hatchery Section. However, the output of
the farm is proposed to increase to 20,000 birds in the poultry section and 15,000
day-old chicks within the first five years of the production period.
In the poultry section, the ratio of layers to broilers is proposed as 70%: 30% or
Broilers
30%
3 ,0 0 0 - 6, 00 0
70 00 - 1 4 ,0 0 0 Bi r d s
Bi rds
Layers
70%
(b)
Hatchery Section
Layers
40%
3000- 4000 Chicks
Broilers
60%
9
Thus, it is used in th
This indeed
10
However, there are some big suppliers especially in the southern par
ts of the
country. Such suppliers include:
1.
2.
3.
Cee-Jay Farms
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
Zartech Limited.
13.
LEVEL OF SUPPLY
In the course of our survey, we observed that production figures for
poultry
are not properly maintained by government agencies that are charged
with the
responsibility. Hence, we came across varieties of production fig
ures from
different sources. However, we are able to come out with an estimate
d supply
level by conducting a mini survey, and aligning the results with data from
reliable
sources such as the Federal Office of Statistics (FOS), Central Bank of
Nigerian
(CBN) and Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO)
Chicken
Eggs
Day-old
Chicks
11
Considering
infrastructural
constraints
and
other
limiting
factors,
we
may
2005
510
2006
520.2
2007
530.60
2006
541.5
households.
num
(million)
which include the ones consumed during the major festive periods such as
Christmas, New Year and Easter for Christian; Idel Malud, Idel Kabir for Muslims
and during the birthday celebration of members of the household or during any
special occasion, these assumptions bring the estimated poultry consumption to
about 440 millions chickens consumed by the households.
It should, however, be noted that the households are not the only consumers of
chicken
and
poultry
products.
The
other
consumers
include
Fast
Foo
12
COMPETITION
Competition is not so keen in Nigerias poultry markets. The reasons for
this is obvious:
1.
on ou
appro
2.
Cargo(TEUs)
the distributi
tlets, at the
18
priate times.
As
a result o
13
POULTRYPRODUCTS IMPORTEDFROMUNITED
STATES(1997--1999)
Poultry (TEUs)
Eggs&Milk (TEUs)
3Year
In this wise, the marketing practices of the operators in the market can b
e
considered under the headings of quality of service, promotion, and pricing.
(a) In the area of distribution, poultry farmers sell directly to operators in the
informal sector.
These include
Butchers
Restaurants
Boarding hotels
Hawkers
Individual consumers,
Hotels
14
However, a few big operators sell their farm products directly to operators in the
Wholesalers
Franchise stores
Exporters (Occasionally)
(b) Pricing: Pricing in the informal sector of the industry is relatively stable.
However, price determination greatly depends on the grade of th
e
products. In the case of eggs, they are classified to the following three
grades.
Grade 1
Grade 2
Under grade
1.
SUPPLY
15
TO
MAJOR
HOTELS,
RESTAURANTS
AND
CATERING
OUTLETS
There are many tourist initiatives and developments in the cities that need
to be catered for. Unfortunately, at the moment, they are under serviced and
still depend on the traditional distribution channels. The proposed farm will aim at
meeting the needs of the outlets, initially in Lagos, and subsequently other parts
of the country.
2.
SUPPLY TO HAWKERS
Live chickens or egg will be sold registered to hawkers on a regular basis.
As most retailers have transport problems, the farm could entice them b
y
delivering the chickens or eggs at their outlets
CONTRACTING
The farm may enter into a contract with medium or large-scale broiler users
to supply stipulated number of chickens or eggs at specified periods. This will,
hopefully, provide a steady market for the farm
SUPPLY TO TOWNSHIP COLD STORAGE DISTRIBUTORS
Some cold storage outlets have positioned themselves very well in the town
to sell frozen food and meat products. The farm will endeavor to supply these
distribution centers.
16
CHAPTER FOUR
4.1
The proposed project, which is to be sited in the Lagos urban periphery, will be a
fully automated and integrated poultry production farm, which will be made up of
the following units.
Hatchery Unit,
17
10,000 fertile eggs per production cycle, and will be made up in the proportion of
60% broilers and 40% breeders. The hatchery production line will include:
a)
A Setter Incubator
b)
A Hatchers Incubator
Fertile Eggs
Fumigations of Eggs
Setter
Incubator
Day-Old Chicks
(DOC)
Hatchers
Incubator
Candling
Room
Adequate housing
Feeding equipment
Miscellaneous equipments
18
The basic requirements for a typical breeder grow out facility are similar to that of
broiler grow out facility.
4.14
This involves the rearing of birds to sexual maturity, and then keeping them in lay
for a year. The eggs produced are infertile and are called table eggs. In
Nigeria, some producers begin their production process by raising the day old
pullets, while other buy point of lay pullets (e.g. 20 to 22 week old pullets) that
are ready to begin production.
The proposed project would depend on its day-old pullets for egg production.
Since an average layer produces 2 eggs every 3 days, the table egg production
capacity of the farm will depend on the number of layers deployed in the farm.
19
include.
a).
b)
Hatchery Unit
Setter Incubator
Hatchers Incubator
Fumigation Equipment
Candling Lamb
Brooding Equipment
Feeding Equipment
Watering Equipment
Thermometer
De-beaking scissors
Setter Incubator
The setter incubator would have a minimum capacity of 40,000 Eggs. Th
e
dimension of a typical one, Chick Master 102 is 22length,12.6 Width
and 8.7Height
Hatchery
The Hatchery that will be utilized will have a minimum of 30,000 Day -old Chicks
per hatching cycle
Drinking systems
20
In deciding which feeder should be used, it important to put into consideration the
type and the class of chicken that is being reared.
Basically, there should be
Feeder for Pullets
Feeder for Cockerels
Feeder for Day Old Chicks (DOC)
One hanging tube feeder with a pan 400 mm in diameter will provide about
1200 mm of feeding space, enough for 15 hens.
Bulks feed
The
4.4
Egg Lifter
Debeakers
Thermometer
21
HOUSING
The first requirement for growing commercial poultry is adequate housing. This
It should
also provide for efficient installation and operation of brooding, feeding, watering
and other equipment.
A poultry building should have the following general features:
*
Three types of houses are utilised in the commercial production of broiler, layer
and breeder.
Brooder House
Growers House
Cage.
22
Brooder House
This is the house where a day-old chick stays until the first 8 weeks of the chicks
life.
Installation of brooders guards to confine chicks, flat feeders, drinkers and feed
mash must always be available.
Grower House
After the first 8 weeks, chicks are transferred to the grower house. The purposes
of this transference are to protect them and make them comfortable so that they
can develop optimally. A well ventilated housing accommodation will suit the
growers with enough floor space for the number of growers involved.The
recommended floor space for a flock of 250 birds is 125 square metres.
Deep Litter House
The birds are transferred to the deep litter house after 20 weeks in the growers
house.
In case of broiler production, this is where the birds will domiciled until
23
This is the final destination of layers and breeders. No litter is required. Cages
are normally put under the roofed house. The usual number of birds required in
a cell is 3 pullets or 2 layers.
Water Supply,
b)
c)
d)
Drainage Facility
24
Water Supply
Clean water supply is a sine qua non of poultry business. Hence, there should be
provision for an alternative source of water since constant and clean water
supply can only be ensured through provision of an internal borehole and, a
minimum of, one overhead water tank of 5000 litres capacity.
Electricity Supply
Since public power supply is not reliable, provision will be made for a 250 KVA
generating set to supplement National Electric Power Authority supply, and
ensure uninterrupted supply of electricity.
Feeds
Drugs
Vaccines
Feeds
The types of food birds feed on varies as they grow, and these includ
e:
Chicksmash,
which
is
used
for
feeding
chicks
from
day
old
to
8 weeks old; Growermash , which is used for feeding chicks from 8 weeks to 20
weeks old; Layermash , which is used from 20 weeks upwards .
Broiler Startermash is used for feeding day old broiler chicks, while Broiler
Finishermash is used from week 4 upwards.
25
The bulk of this feed will be sourced locally from bulk importers and loc
al
manufacturers of livestock feed. In the nearest future, the farm will explore the
possibilities of producing its own feed.
Drugs
Some poultry drugs commonly used in the poultry farms are:
Amprol Solube Powder, Tylan, Vitadol, Vibravet, Soluvita Stress, Teramycin
Newcastle
disease
vaccine,
Coccidants
Vaccines, Gumboro Vaccine, Komoro Vaccine, Pox vaccine and Ant- C.R.D
Vaccine
About 90% of these inputs are imported. These is why poultry production is
highly sensitive to foreign exchange fluctuation In Nigeria
CHAPTER FIVE
26
For the successful operation of the integrated farm, the management should
have adequate and appropriate knowledge in specific features of poultry farming.
These important areas include:
Diseases control,
Feeding,
Genetic improvement,
Marketing,
Consequent upon the medium size of the farm, the management structure will
not be too elaborate. Since a promoter will finance the farm, the composition of a
board of directors may not be necessary, although it is advisable that this be put
in place. The overall management functions, which will include broad policy
formulation, approval of budgets and strategic plans, will fall on the promoter who
will also function as the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of the
farm, although a lot of assistance and value can be derived from the constitution
of a board of Directors.
PERSONNEL REQUIREMENT
Commercial poultry production involves the rearing of exotic breed of chicken
that are highly sensitive to environmental changes, feeding pattern and diseases.
Hence, its management requires highly skilled and experienced personnel.
The farm will to be a fully automated and integrated farm. Hence, there would not
be need for too many staff. In this wise, the farm will require the followin
g
personnel:
Poultry facility Feasibility
27
promoter
will
assume
the
overall
supervisory
responsibilities
as
th
e
Managing Director, carrying out (With the assistance of the key personnel), the
function of the strategic policy formulation. He/She will draw monthly salary and
allowance for performing this function.
Farm Hands
Security Men
Driver(s)
N
N
N
N
N
600,000.00--------Year
660,000.00--------Year
726,000.00--------Year
798,600.00--------Year
878,460.00--------Year
1
2
3
4
5
ORGANISATION STRUCTURE
28
Initially, the farm will maintain a lean structure in the first five years of i
ts
operation, during which it would enjoy full automation and the services of six
staff. However, as the farm expands, in the nearest future, it will be imperative to
put
is
in
place,
very
good
structure.
Hence,
the
following
structure
recommended.
The farm will be structured into four broad departments. The heads of these
departments will report to the General Manager, who will serve as the overall
Farm Manager of the integrated farm. He will report to the Chairman / Managing
Director.
Hatchery Manager, who will supervise the hatchery operations of the farm, will
head the Hatchery unit.
The Finance and Administration Department will be headed by Finance
&
Administration Manager and will supervise all administration accounts and
personnel matters.
The Livestocks Department will be headed by Livestock Manager, who will
supervise the broiler, layers / breeder and egg production operations of the farm.
The
s
Business
Development
Manager
will
head
the
Marketing
and
sale
Chairman/CEO
29
Gener
al Man
ager
Business Development
Manager
Manager
Feed man
Veterinary Assistant
Livestock Manager
Hatchery Assistants
Admin Clerks
Hatchery Manager
Account Clerks
CHAPTER 6
INVESTMENT COST ANALYSIS
30
The cost of the project are estimated under two main headings, viz:
Capital/initial cost and operating/maintenance costs.
1.0
Capital/initial Cost
Based on the estimates gathered during the market survey as well as internet
searches, the principal cost component of the project are [1] land/building &
Infrastructure, [2] Plant & Machinery, [3] office furniture, [4] delivery vehicles and
[5] the pre-operational expenses. These are summarized below:
Construction sheds/store rooms:
Land acquisition
5,000,000
Broiler/grower shed
1,000,000
Hatchery shed
1,000,000
Layer Shed
1,000,000
Store room
850,000
Fencing
2,000,000
Sub-Total
1.2.
10,850,000
Machines/Equipment:
Automated Watering System
Automated feeding system
Automated manure removal
Incubation and Hatchery equipment
Generator
6,500,000
12,000,000
2,750,000
15,000,000
(1 nos. 75 KVA)
2,500,000
3,000,000
1,000,000
Sub-Total
42,750,000
1.3
31
Delivery Vehicles:
a)
Saloon Car
(1 no.)
b)
2,900,000
2,750,000
Sub-Total
1.4
5,650,000
b)
1,200,000
150,000
Telephone Installation
85,000
Sub-Total
1.5
1,435,000
Pre-Operating Expenses:
a)
500,000
b)
Feasibility Study
450,000
h)
Travel Expenses
150,000
I)
500,000
j)
500,000
k)
Staff Recruitment
650,000
I)
Sundry Expenses
250,000
Sub-Total
1.6
3,000,000
(1,500 no)
165, 000
b)
(3,500 no)
385,000
c)
Feed stock
10,000,000
d)
150,000
Sub-Total
10,400,000
The transfer price of day old chicks is put at N110 per DOC.
1.7
32
Working Capital:
working capital for the first year of operation of the Poultry is estimated, on the
basis of the operating expenses.
2.0
The operating and maintenance costs are estimated on the basis of assumptions
of usage rates for utilities water, light, fuelling and sundry expenses on a daily
basis. The total is estimated at N350, 000 for two months. This is much in line
with average rates for poultry facilities of similar standard.
2.1
Fuel Expenses
Given at least 2 vehicles and using average fuel expenses of N34/litre and 5
litres/day, the fuel consumption is estimated at N340/day.
a)
b)
2.2
We note that due to the automation of the Poultry, staff head count should be
kept at a Minimum until the mature birds are due for sale/processing.
The
estimated cost of staff emoluments in the first year of operation is N5million, and
an annual increase of 10% per annum is expected for the next five years.
Detailed breakdown of manpower expenses can be seen at the section on
manpower requirements and organization chart.
b.
The above are estimated based on a benchmarking with model poultry farms as
well as industry best practices.
this matter. Vaccination cost is put at N30 per bird. Spray cost is put at N5, 000
per flock, Feed cost is put at N1, 100 per bag of 25kg on average.
Poultry facility Feasibility
33
c.
Utilities
i.
100,000.00
ii.
Electricity
200,000.00
iii.
Water
300,000.00
iv.
300,000.00
Travel expenses
200,000
ii)
Printing/Stationery
100,000
iv)
Staff Uniform
100,000
v)
Sundry Expenses
250,000
DEPRECIATION SCHEDULE
PLTRY.EQM
ENERGY
O/EQUIP.
VEHICLES
FURN./FIT
YEAR
1.27125
1.27125
1.27125
1.27125
0.000
5.085
0.565
5.650
0.322875
0.322875
0.322875
0.322875
0.000
1.2915
0.1435
1.435
1
2
3
4
5
TOTAL
Salvage
COST
T/
BUILDING
4.721
4.721
7.161
7.161
7.161
58.185
5.819
75.135
0.450
0.450
0.450
0.450
0.450
2.250
0.250
2.500
0.540
0.540
0.540
0.540
0.540
2.700
0.300
3.000
2.4 Depreciation
Depreciation is estimated at N7, 304,625 on a straight-line basis on an annual
basis, given a 10% salvage value, as indicated below: (note that building/poultry
equipment is depreciated over a ten-year period).
34
35
CHAPTER 7
REVENUE PROJECTION
The main sources of revenue of the Poultry facility are:
i) Sale of mature birds
ii) Sale of eggs
iii) Sale of bird litters/manure
iv) Sale of day-old chicks
i)
revenue from sale of mature birds should average N6.75million for a 5,000
bird capacity, N13.50million for a 10,000 bird capacity and N27.0million for
a 20,000 bird capacity, all on a worst case scenario.
The estimate
d
industry growth rate is about 12.5% annually.
ii)
the laying period of 52 weeks, the ability to lay 2eggs in every 3 day
s
during the laying period, and given the assumed mortality rate earlier
stated above as well as the growth in bird count over the planning period.
The total estimated revenue from this segment should be N6.899million
for a 5,000 bird capacity, N13.80million for a 10,000 bird capacity and
N27.6million for a 20,000 bird capacity on an annual basis. The average
industry growth rate is 15% per annum.
iii)
36
Revenue from sale of manure and bird litters is based on industry average
revenue estimates and given the strategic location of the poultry. It is
estimated that N129,000 N492,000 will be realized from the above
sales,
given
capacity
utilization
of
between
5000
20000
bir
ds
respectively. The figure should grow by about 10% per annum
iv)
s.
Therefore,
it
is
estimated
that
N12.408million,
N18.612million
and
Year 1
N26.185 million
Year 2
N29.459 million
Year 3
N46.167 million
Year 4
N51.938 million
Year 5
N79.902 million
37
CHAPTER 8
FINANCING PLAN
Traditionally, any projects that have been found to be commercially viable are
financed through equity contribution of sponsors and loans term loans and
bank overdrafts.
financing structure and pattern should follow above path. Consequently, the
Poultry facilitys capital cost of N68.135 million is recommended to be financed
as follows:
NMillion
i)
Equity Contribution
15.027
20.00
ii)
SMIES Loan
50.000
66.55
iii)
Start-up funding
10.108
13.45
N75.135
100.00
Total
i.
Equity contribution will cover the cost of initial acquisition of land and as
well as for the construction and completion of the Poultry facility building.
The sum should also cover the construction and part-furnishing of the
administrative office and store rooms.
ii)
38
finance by leasing or borrowing becomes secondary since the project will do well
whatever the choice of financing. However, lease financing is particularly
attractive on the following grounds:
i) It allows 100% debt financing, as equity contribution is not
required.
ii)
iii)
iv)
The SMIES loan is expected to reduce the pains of servicing a regular bank
revolving loan with periodic interest and principal repayments.
39
CHAPTER 9
FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS AND APPRAISAL OF COMMERCIAL VIABILITY
This chapter undertakes the financial projection of the project by relating the
projected streams of costs and revenue for the first five years of its operations.
Thereafter, standard appraisal techniques are used to evaluate the feasibility or
commercial profitability of the project.
1.
2.
40
2
14,296,7
96
00
99
05
652,90
9
43,645,7
58,185,0
00
Accounts payable
Taxes Payable
2,098,20
27,218,88
4
29,164,50
0
39,284,50
0
32,478,48
5
1,822,11
0
75
54,985,55
1
58,185,00
0
(13,709,25
0)
44,475,75
0
99,461,30
1
749,85
0
18
1,172,12
0
50
5
24,976,54
19,944,50
20,724,18
7
(6,854,6
25)
51,330,3
75
94,976,0
80
513,72
5
Total assets
0
18,421,4
4
23,912,47
14,997,00
10,274,5
Prepaid Expenses
3
17,442,25
36,538,29
5
56,211,05
7
1,298,44
1,154,1 7
77,489,63
0
91,977,78
4
58,185,00
0
(23,003,89
5)
35,181,10
5
112,670,73
5
124,711,99
1
58,185,00
0
1,997,55
0
58,185,00
0
(32,298,54
0)
(41,593,18
5)
25,886,46
0
16,591,81
5
117,864,24
4
141,303,80
6
1,459,76
1,003,1 8
1,967,54
0
1,996,27
3,513,6 2
6,886,08
9
465,79
Dividends Payable
9,892,70
Other Accruals
81
10,931,43
9
1,548,65
14,053,2
61,000,0
2,950,14
5
65
15,803,55
4
819,852
12,079,24
0
1,606,75
4
13,347,56
1
14,749,05
4
5,366,26
4,218,4 6
21,634,32
4
6,405,00
0
22,635,66
3
31,614,43
8
61,000,00
61,000,00
Long-term debt
00
61,000,000
15,027,00
15,027,0
Common Stock - Paid up
00
Net Income
Shareholders equity
Total long-term debt and
equity
99
Total Liabilities
80
Current Ratio
0
4,895,79
2,734,94
8
64
22,657,74
7
83,657,74
7
99,461,30
1
19,922,7
80,922,7
99
94,976,0
61,000,0000
15,027,00
15,027,00
0
0
4,192,17
7,378,6 1
30,036,41
1
15,027,00
0
14,460,78
7
34,228,58
2
91,036,41
1
112,670,73
5
48,689,36
9
95,228,58
2
109,689,36
9
117,864,24
5
141,303,80
6
3.1
3.48
3.58
4.06
3.92
3.01
3.07
3.94
3.8
Total Liabilities/Equity
3
2.24
41
26,185,500
29,458,688
79,902,000
12.50%
53.84%
(10,274,500)
4
46,167,000
51,937,875
56.72%
12.50%
(14,997,000)
(19,944,500)
(29,164,500)
31.49%
24.81%
31.61%
(39,284,500)
Growth rate (%)
Gross profit
Growth rate (%)
Less SG&A expenses
Growth rate (%)
Earnings before Interest,
Tax & Deprec.
Less depreciation
25.76%
15,911,000
14,461,688
40,617,500
-10.02%
43.93%
(513,725)
(749,850)
(1,964,225)
31.49%
25.76%
26,222,500
44.85%
(997,225)
24.81%
22,773,375
-15.15%
(1,458,225)
31.61%
15,397,275
38,653,275
13,711,838
25,225,275
21,315,150
(6,854,625)
(6,854,625)
(9,294,645)
(9,294,645)
6,857,213
15,930,630
12,020,505
(9,294,645)
Earnings after depr. b/4
Interest & Tax
8,542,650
29,358,630
Less
SMIES
repayment accrual
int.
Pre-tax income
Cumulative
income (NOL)
(1,548,651)
(6,405,000)
6,993,999
22,953,630
(2,950,145)
(4,218,465)
(5,366,266)
3,907,068
11,712,165
6,654,239
6,993,999
52,221,101
2,098,200
(6,886,089)
6,993,999
22,953,630
10,901,067
22,613,232
29,267,471
1,172,120
(3,513,650)
(1,996,272)
3,907,068
11,712,165
6,654,239
(2,098,200)
(1,172,120)
(3,513,650)
(1,996,272)
(819,852)
(465,797)
pre-tax
Taxes
Pre-tax income
Less taxes
(6,886,089)
Less Proposed Dividend
(1,606,754)
Net income
4,895,799
2,734,948
7,378,664
4,192,171
14,460,787
Growth rate (%)
Return on Investment
Return on Sales
Return on Equity
7.19%
21.22%
18.70%
18.10%
19.48%
57.53%
-79.01%
71.01%
62.93%
-76.01%
4.01%
10.83%
6.15%
9.28%
15.98%
8.07%
10.88%
29.36%
16.68%
42
STATEMENTS OF CASH
FLOWS
All figures are in Millions of
Naira
Year
Net income
Plus depreciation
Less increase in inventory
Plus
Interest
on
Investments
Less increase in accounts
receivable
Plus increase in accounts
payable
Cash flow from operations
Less investment
Plus
net
new
equity
capital raised
Current year Interest
Less dividends paid
in
4,895,799
14,460,787
6,854,625
9,294,645
10,171,755
3,928,450
(130,928)
(3,859,267)
2,054,900
1,178,535
23,846,152
25,003,150
(75,135,000)
Inc. (Decr.)
debt
(51,288,848)
25,003,150
15,027,000
2,734,948
7,378,664
4,192,171
6,854,625
9,294,645
9,294,645
(7,499)
6,761,186
(262,481)
2,945,869
(46,167)
4,934,098
4,499,100
199,445
2,085,262
17,027,043
23,587,773
20,243,695
17,027,043
-
(1,548,651)
(2,950,145)
(6,405,000)
(1,606,754)
23,587,773
-
20,243,695
-
(4,218,465)
(5,366,266)
(819,852)
(465,797)
(12,079,240)
(13,347,561)
long-term
Inc.
(Decr.)
Other
borrowings
Cash
flow
from ops,
invests, and fin
Beginning cash balance
Ending cash balance
51,107,295
(14,749,054)
-
(10,931,439)
-
13,296,796
2,242,342
3,145,459
6,470,216
1,064,072
1,000,000
14,296,796
17,442,255
23,912,471
24,976,542
14,296,796
27,218,884
17,442,255
23,912,471
24,976,542
YEAR 1 SCENARIO
Pessimistic
Planned
Sales
Mature birds
70%
4,725,00
Optimistic
100%
120%
4,828,95
Eggs
43
WHAT IF ANALYSIS FOR THE FIRST YEAR OF OPERATION
000 6,750,
00
8,100,0
500 6,898,
00
8,278,2
0
8,685,60
12,408,0
00
14,889,6
Manure/Litters
000
00
Net Sales
18,329,850
26,185,500
31,422,600
1.000
10,274,500
0.500
5,137,250
0
10,274,500
0
5,137,250
1.100
0
20,549,000
1.000
0
10,274,500
0.900
0
5,137,250
Gross Profit
% of Total Sales
-2,219,150
-12.11%
15,911,000
60.76%
26,285,350
83.65%
Operating Costs
Sales & Marketing
1.200
308,235
1.000
256,863
0.900
231,176
308,235
256,863
231,176
Depreciation
6,854,625
6,854,625
6,854,625
0
7,471,095
0
7,368,350
0
7,316,978
-9,690,245
8,542,650
18,968,373
90,30
00
129,
154,8
-1,548,651
0
-1,548,651
-2,098,200
-1,548,651
0
-11,238,896
4,895,799
17,419,722
44
3
46,167,00
26,185, 29,458,
50
688
0
19,944,50
10,274, 14,997,
50
000
0
4
51,937,8
75
79,902,
000
Variable Costs
Material & Labor
Commissions
29,164,5
00
39,284,
500
Marketing
10,274, 14,997,
50
000
0
0.392
0.509
0.492
0.000%
0.000%
19,944,50
29,164,5
00
0.432
39,284,
500
0.562
0.000%
0.000%
0.000%
2.500%
2.500%
2.500%
2.500%
2.500%
2.500%
5.000%
5.000%
5.000%
(w/o
2.500%
2.500%
G & A (without Depreciation)
2.500%
2.500%
Total Fixed Costs (calc as % of
sales)
5.000%
5.000%
Fixed Costs (fixed amounts)
Fixed Cost of Goods & Services
Sales
&
Commissions)
Marketing
(w/o
63
Costs
5
(fixed
0
256,8
374
,925
256,8 374
,925
6,854,6 6,854
2
,625
7,368,35
7,604
,475
498,6
13
729,
113
498,6
13
729,
113
9,294,64
5
8,542,6 6,857
5
,213
0
982
,113
9,294,
645
10,291,87
0
982
,113
9,294
,645
10,752,8
70
15,930,63
11,258,
870
12,020,5
05
29,358,
630
(1,548 (2,950,
,6
145)
5)
(4,218,46
(3,513,65
00)
(2,098 (1,172,
,2
120)
0)
8,198,51
4,895,7 2,734
9
,948
6
0.608
0.508
66)
(6,405,
000)
(1,996,2
72)
(6,886,
089)
4,657,
967
0.491
12,126, 15,490,
44
Break-Even Sales
9
437
5
Sales Volume Above Break- 14,059,05
13,968,
Even
1
251
5
(5,366,2
541
0.568
18,119,73
16,067,
0.438
24,523,4
28
28,047,26
22,148,
242
27,414,4
47
57,753,
758
45
SUMMARY OF ASSUMPTIONS
The accompanying financial projections are based on a number of assumptions
made in the process of forecasting future events and circumstances. The
assumptions disclosed below are those that are considered to be significant to
the preparation of its financial projections. Some assumptions, regardless of the
amount of study or analysis, will not materialize, and unexpected events and
circumstances may occur after the date of the financial projections. Thus, it
should be expected that actual results will vary, to some degree, from th
e
projected results and the variations could be material.
STRATEGIC DIRECTION
To finance growth, the Company requires N50 million SMIES term financing in
the first quarter of 2005, as well as N10.108million start-up expenses funding.
46
operating and other expenses. This is much in line with the cost structure of
the Poultry and egg industry in Nigeria at the time of this report.
4. The focus on revenue from sales of mature birds and eggs is expected t
o
increase such that a significant portion of the total revenue should b
e
generated from these sources.
should be from the sale of mature birds and eggs, leaving the balance of 20%
to be from sales of day old chicks and manure/litters.
5. During the same period, spending on start-up costs such as marketing
,
critical
automated
poultry
and
hatchery
equipment. Major
47
6. Interest expense for borrowed funds are acquired is provided at 30% per
annum, and interest income on deposits is earned at 2%.
7. Depreciation is calculated using the straight-line method over 5 years.
8. Federal income taxes are provided at 30%
INVESTING - 2004 2008
1. Equipment purchases are projected at between N43.0million and N63million.
This may be staggered over a two period cycle to take account of expansion
in number of birds.
Taxation and Capital Allowances
Plant
Furniture
Motors
Building
Machinery
Fittings
Vehicles
Initial
5%
20%
15%
25%
Annual
10%
12.5%
10%
20%
In
1. An overall ratio of about 37:63 is maintained between equity and debt, such
that dilution of ownership and control is deeply affected. In 2005 the
S/N
1
2
3
4
7
8
9
10
11
12
PARTICULARS
SIZE/COST/%
Number of Birds in lay
5,000 20,000
Rearing Period (weeks)
72 90
Brooding
cum
growing
period18 20
Laying period (weeks)
52
(weeks)
1-3
Number of batches or cycle
Space requirement per bird (sq.ft.)
Brooder cum grower period
1
Layer period
0.8
Hatchery Period
0.35
Cost of Construction (N/sq.ft)
Broiler cum grower shed
1000.00
Layer shed
1000.00
Hatchery shed
1000.00
Store room and admin office
650.00
Mortality rate (%)
Broiler cum grower stage
6% - 10%
Laying stage
3% - 5%
Day old chicks (DOCs)
4% - 6%
Total mortality loss (birds)
500
Total number of birds laying eggs
3500 12,600
Rate of egg laying
2 eggs every 3 days (avg.)
Egg price (N/egg)
9.00
Egg Production capacity per year
766,500 eggs
Average body weight of mature birds 1kg 2.5kg
Feed requirement (kg/bird)
Brooding cum growing stage
4.5 7.5 kg/bird
Laying stage
35 40 kg/bird
Hatchery/Day old chicks
0.35 1 kg/bird
2. The
or a
in 2
Poultry facil
49
No. of Broilers/Layers
5,000 20,000
[a] Broilers
10%
[b] Layers
4,500
N450.00
Frequency
Hatchery Capacity
2-3 times/year
10,000 DOCs
[a] Broilers
6%
[b] Layers
9,400
N110.00
Frequency
3-4 times/year
3,500 14,000
10%
3,150 12,600
Laying Period
52 weeks
Rate of lay
766,500 eggs
Egg Price/dozen
N108.00
Selling price/flock
N5000.00
N15.00
Frequency
Twice/year
Sale of Eggs:
REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS:
EXPENSE ASSUMPTIONS:
Poultry facility Feasibility
50
PARTICULARS
Admin Overhead as a % of sales
ASSUMPTION
12.5%
N110.00
50kg
Feed Cost/Bag
N850.00
0.95kg
N1,400.00
1.5kg
N3,000.00
N5.00
N1,500.00
N1,350.00
6.5%
51