Binomial Distribution

1 Definition
One of the most frequently used and most intuitive distributions in Exam P.
The easiest way to understand Binomial distribution is to think about tossing coins.
You toss the same coin n times and you want to know how many times you
can get heads.
For each toss, there are only two outcomes -- heads or tails.
The probability of getting heads, represented by p, doesnt change from one
toss to another.
In addition, whether you get a head in one toss doesnt affect whether you get
heads in the next toss (so the result of each toss is independent).
If X = number of heads you get in n tosses of the coin, then X has a binomial
distribution

2 Probability Density Function (pdf)

x

f ( x )=C n p q

n x

n!
x n x
p q ; x=0,1,2, ,
x ! ( nx ) !

3 Cumulative Density Function (cdf)

x=0

x=0

F ( x )= C nx p x q nx =

n!
p x q nx
x ! ( nx ) !

4 Moment-Generating Function (mgf)

M x ( t ) E ( e tX )

()
(n ) ( p e ) ( 1 p )
x
e tx n p x qn x
x
x=0

t x

x=0

[ p et + ( 1 p ) ]

n x

5 Mean of Binomial Distribution

M x ' (t ) n [ p et + ( 1 p ) ]n1 ( p e t )
E( X)

M x ' (0)
n [ p e0 + ( 1 p ) ]

n1

( p e0 )

n ( p+ 1 p ) p
np

6 Variance of Binomial Distribution

M x ' ' (t) n ( n1 ) [ p e t + ( 1 p ) ]n2 ( p et )2+ n [ p et + (1 p ) ]n1 ( p e t )
E( X 2)

M x ' ' (0)

0

n ( n1 ) [ p e + (1 p ) ]

n2

( p e t ) + n [ p e 0 + ( 1 p ) ]

n1

( p e0 )

np ( 1 p+np )
V (X )

2
E ( X 2 ) E( X )2
np ( 1 p+np )np 2
npnp2 +n2 p 2np 2
np(1p)
npq

7 Examples of Binomial Distribution

Example 1
On a given day, each computer in a lab has at most one crash. There is a 5% chance that a
computer has a crash during the day, independent of the performance of any other
computers in the lab. There are 25 computers in the lab.

Find the probability that on a given day, there are

(1) exactly 3 crashes
(2) at most 3 crashes
(3) at least 3 crashes
(4) more than 3 and less than 6 crashes
Solution:
X = # of computer crashes in a given day. X has a binomial distribution with n = 25
and p =5%.
x
f ( x )=C xn p x qn x =C25
(0.05) x (0.95)25 x

Probability of having exactly 3 crashes in a day is:

f ( 3 ) =C325 (0.05)3 (0.95)253=0.093

Probability of having at most 3 crashes in a day is:

P ( X 3)

f ( 0 ) + f ( 1 )+ f ( 2 ) +f ( 3 )
0

250

C25 (0.05) (0.95)

251

+ C25 (0.05) (0.95)

252

+C 25 (0.05) (0.95)

+0.093

0.966
Probability of having at least 3 crashes in a day is:

P ( X 3)

1P ( X 2 )
1[f ( 0 ) +f ( 1 ) +f ( 2 ) ]
1[ C 025 (0.05)0 (0.95)250 + C 125 (0.05)1 (0.95)251+ C225 (0.05)2 (0.95)252 ]
0.127

Probability of having more than 3 but less than 6 crashes in a day is:

f ( 4)+ f (5 )

254

C25 (0.05) (0.95)

255

+C 25 (0.05) (0.95)

0.033
Example 2
A factory has 25 machines working separately, of which 15 are of Type A and 10 of Type
B. On a given day, each machine Type A has a 5% chance of malfunctioning,
independent of the performance of any other machines; each machine Type B has an 8%
chance of malfunctioning, independent of the performance of any other machines.
Let Y represent, on a given day, the total number of machines malfunctioning.
Find P(Y = 2) , the probability of having exactly 2 machines malfunctioning on a given
day.
Solution:

On a given day, the number of Type A machines malfunctioning A X and the number of
Type B machines malfunctioning B X are two independent binomial random variables.
A X is binomial with n =15 and p =5%; B X is binomial with n =10 and p =8% , Y = XA + XB =.
There are only 3 combinations of A X and B X to make Y = 2 : two Type
As malfunction and no Type Bs malfunction; one Type A and one Type B malfunction;
and no Type As malfunction and two Type Bs malfunction. In other words,

Y = X A + X B=2 ( X A , X B ) =( 2,0 ) , (1,1 ) , ( 0,2 )

We just need to find the probability of each of the above three combinations and calculate
the sum.
P ( X A =x A , X B =x B )=P ( X A=x A ) P ( X B=x B ) Because A X and B X are independent
P ( X A =2, X B =0 ) =P ( X A =2 ) P ( X B =0 )
P ( X A =2 )=C 215 (0.05)2( 0.95)152=0.1348
0
P ( X B =0 ) =C15
(0.08)0 (0.92)150=0.4344

P ( X A=2, X B=0 )=P ( X A =2 ) P ( X B=0 )=0.1348 0.4344=0.0585

P ( X A=1 , X B=1 ) =C11 5 (0.05)1 (0.95)151 C 115 ( 0.08)1 (0.92)151=0.1382
0

150

P ( X A=0 , X B=2 )=C 15 (0.05) (0.95)

152

C1 5 (0.08) (0.92)

=0.0685

P ( Y =2 )=0.0585+0.1382+0.0685=0.2652

Example 3
A service guarantee covers 20 TV sets. Each year, each set has 5% chance of failing.
These probabilities are independent.
If a set fails, it is immediately replaced with a new set at the end of the year of failure.
This new set is included in the service guarantee.
Calculate the probability of no more than one failure in the first two years.
Solution:
There are three ways to have zero or one failures during the first two years:

 Have zero failure in Year 1 and Year 2 (Option 1)

Having zero failure in Year 1 and 1 failure in Year 2 (Option 2)
Having one failure in Year 1 and zero failure in Year 2 (Option 3)
The number of failures each year is a binomial distribution with parameter n = 20 and p = 5%.
Next, we set up a table keeping track of claims:
A
1

Yr 1
0

Yr 2
0

Prob(Yr 1)
0
20

0
20

200

C (0.05) (0.95)

0.9520

0.9520

( 0.9520 ) =0.1285

C020 (0.05)0 (0.95)200 C120 (0.05)1 (0.95)201 20(0.5) 0.953 9=0.1353

20

20(0.5)0.9519

C120 (0.05)1 (0.95)201 C020 (0.05)0 (0.95)200 20(0.5) 0.953 9=0.1353

20(0.5) 0.9519

Tot
al

Total Probability

Prob(Yr 2)
200

C (0.05) (0.95)

0.95
3

C=A B

0.9520
0.3991

The probability of no more than one failure in the first two years is 0.3991