Rupee Extends Loss For Second Straight Day

HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY
June 22, 2016
PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]
VIEW POINT
MAJOR CURRENCY
Close
USDINR
DXY INDX
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
DG USDINR
67.490
93.970
1.127
1.469
104.440
67.719
Prev.
Close
67.319
93.593
1.133
1.473
104.66
67.636
Chg.
0.171
0.377
-0.006
-0.004
-0.220
0.083
% Chg.
0.25%
0.40%
-0.53%
-0.26%
-0.21%
0.12%
GLOBAL INDICES
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S&P INDEX
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8215.0
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20653.0
16002.6
2888.0
2088.9
17829.7
4843.8
6226.6
4367.2
10015.5
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY
Segment
EQUITY
DEBT
8220.5
8238.5
26866.9
20668.4
16169.1
2878.6
2083.3
17804.9
4837.2
6204.0
4340.8
9962.0
Chg.
-6
-19
-54
-15
-167
9
6
25
7
23
26
54
% Chg.
-0.07%
-0.23%
-0.20%
-0.07%
-1.03%
0.33%
0.27%
0.14%
0.14%
0.36%
0.61%
0.54%
(Provisional Rs. In Cr)
21-Jun-16
20-Jun-16
Jun 16
-512.18
39.94
3702.31
-2331.84
-664.66
-5165.17
Rupee Extends Loss For Second Straight Day

Rupee extended losses for the second consecutive day on Tuesday
on continuation of dollar demand from importers and banks. The
home currency started the day on weak note and opened lower at
67.40 per dollar against the previous closing level of 67.31 and
moved in a range of 67.35 and 67.55 before ending at 67.48 per
dollar, marking a loss of 17 paise or 0.25%.
In forward market, premium for dollar continued to rule easy on
sustained receiving from exporters.
The benchmark 6-month
premium for November moved down to 188-190 paise from 189191 paise and far forward May 2017 contract eased further to 382384 from 384-386 paise.
Meanwhile, Indias 10-year bond yield closed at 7.501%, compared
with Mondays close of 7.496%.
The one month forward USDINR last quoted at 67.67 from
yesterdays 67.57 at 5pm IST suggesting higher opening at
domestic bourses. The outlook for USDINR June future remains
mildly bullish amid higher top higher bottom chart formation on
daily scale. The immediate resistance is at 67.8650 and support at
67.05.
Dollar rebound after Fed Yellen Testifies
The dollar gripped gains today after Federal Reserve Chair Janet
Yellen held the line of "gradual increases" in U.S. rates, while
sterling's short-covering rally lost momentum a day ahead of
Britian's EU referendum. Yellen also highlighted the risks of Brexit,
noting it could have "significant economic repercussions".
Speaking to the European Parliamentary committee in Brussels,
Draghi noted that the bloc's uncertainty remained high and
downside risks were challenging due to the continued fragile state
of the global economy and geopolitical developments. "We will
closely monitor the evolution of the outlook for price stability," he
said. "We stand ready to act by using all the instruments available
within our mandate, if necessary, to achieve our objective. In
particular, the ECB is ready for all contingencies following the UK's
EU referendum," he added.
The buck climbed above 105.00 yen for the first time in nearly a week and last stood at 104.79. The euro dipped to $1.1255, peeling
away from a two-week peak of $1.1383 set on Monday. The dollar index was back above 94.000, rebounding from a two-week trough
of 93.425.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDINR June Future Daily Chart
Breakout above 67.8650
On Tuesday, the pair formed inside bar after previous days sharp up move suggesting supply at higher level.
Strong support for the pair is seen at 66.72, which happened to be the previous bottom while previous top 67.8650 can act as
resistance in near term.
Oscillators are indicating consolidation for the short term.
Near term bias for the pair remains upward with higher side expectation of 67.865.
TECHNICAL LEVELS
JUNE Month
Last
Exp. Open*
Trend Bias for Today
Range
S2
S1
R1
R2
USDINR
67.58
67.65
Bullish
67.80-67.35
67.27
67.36
67.47
67.66
76.14
76.30
76.41
76.69
EURINR
76.53
76.25
Profit Booking
76.70-76.10
GBPINR
99.48
99.30
Profit Booking
99.90-99.10
97.69
98.25
98.86
100.04
JPYINR
64.54
64.80
Bullish
64.95-64.50
64.00
64.24
64.39
64.77
Spot
Wkly
High
Wkly
Low
1-Mth.
High
1-Mth.
Low
52 Wk
High
52 Wk
Low
5 DMA
20 DMA
50 DMA
100 DMA
200 DMA
USDINR
67.34
66.98
67.76
66.54
68.79
63.31
67.26
67.13
66.86
67.21
66.67
EURINR
75.97
75.09
76.92
74.54
77.49
68.74
75.78
75.47
75.59
75.25
74.09
GBPINR
96.11
94.69
99.80
94.69
105.28
93.34
96.81
97.11
96.70
96.33
97.90
JPYINR
64.91
62.82
64.91
60.30
64.91
51.06
64.24
62.48
61.73
60.71
57.84
CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open
High
Low
Close
Chg.
Open
Interest
Chg.
Volume
Chg.
SPOT USDINR
67.40
67.56
67.37
67.49
0.17
--
--
--
--
USDINR JUNE FUT.
67.52
67.64
67.45
67.58
0.18
2396167
613407
2713231
171705
SPOT EURINR
76.43
76.65
76.34
76.42
0.16
--
--
--
--
EURINR JUNE FUT.
76.53
76.73
76.46
76.53
0.11
35293
-6764
50499
-63916
SPOT GBPINR
98.86
99.80
98.77
99.38
0.85
--
--
--
--
GBPINR JUNE FUT.
98.94
99.99
98.81
99.48
0.84
38196
6542
187768
-28135
SPOT JPYINR
64.66
64.85
64.50
64.61
0.10
--
--
--
--
JPYINR JUNE FUT.
64.82
64.85
64.47
64.54
0.12
48877
-3742
42168
1303
Currency
USDINR JUNE MONTH OPTION DISTRIBUTION

CALL
OI Chg.
350
107
0
10
23
15
14
2
50
31
33
41
100
39
22
72
150
0
66.00
66.50
67.00
67.50
CALL
68.00
68.50
69.00
Volume
IV
Strike
Price
LTP
PUT
LTP
IV
Volume OI Chg.
-24393
43594
7.18
1.08
66.50
0.0075
6.33 162948
446
3181
6.25
0.8525
66.75
0.0275
6.79
19270
81261
7.03
0.65
67.00
0.07
-3810
32972
7.22
0.4675
67.25
-23563 181057
-17910
38350
204
7.16 144053
-17710
0.1375
7.32
-13562
78402
7.41
0.32
67.50
0.2425
7.58 136150
29540
7.99
0.2225
67.75
0.3775
7.69
24830
15266
8321 117656
8.12
0.14
68.00
0.565
8.41
22334
-3174
1530
12197
8.48
0.09
68.25
0.76
8.66
36
0.94
7.03
1450
-305
1.3675 16.45
32
-10
5283
136
156
200
189
250
232
235
250
300
295
261
339
400
130
Thousands
USDINR OI DISTRIBUTION
-854
38006
8.61
0.0525
68.50
1675
3991
8.96
0.0325
68.75
-2846
12903
9.06
0.0175
69.00
1.43
8.88
TOTAL OI
1513671
5833
1299772
OI PUT CALL RATIO : 0.86
PUT
ECO. DATA TODAY
ECO. DATA RELEASED
Date Time
Country
06/22/2016 16:30
US
MBA Mortgage Appl.
Event
06/22/2016 19:30
EC
Consumer Confidence
06/22/2016 19:30
US
Existing Home Sales
Period
Survey
17-Jun
--
Date Time
Country
Event
-2.40%
06/21/2016 14:00
UK
Public Sector Net Borrow
May
Prior
Period Survey Actual Prior

9.4b
9.1b
6.6b
Jun A
-7
-7
06/21/2016 14:30
EC
ZEW Survey Expectation
Jun
--
20.2
16.8
May
5.55m
5.45m
06/21/2016 15:30
UK
CBI Trends Total Orders
Jun
-10
-2
-8
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HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

June 22, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

(Provisional Rs. In Cr)

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]