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SimCities:CanCityPlanningMistakesBe
AvoidedThroughDataDrivenSimulations?
BY:LauraAdler,DataSmartCitySolutions|August29,2016
Incitiesacrosstheworld,governmentsusedataaboutinfrastructure,healthandsafety,orcitizen
satisfactiontoimproveservices.Butdataalsohasacriticalroleinshapingtheveryspaceofthecity,
informingthedesignofnewbuildings,infrastructure,andneighborhoods.Withthehelpofbigdataand
analytics,urbanplannerscannowusesimulationstoanticipatetheimpactofurbandevelopment
programs.Usingthesetools,citiescanbecomemoresustainableandstrategic,whiletheplanning
processesbecomeevermoreinclusive.
Themostfundamentalbenefitofsimulationistheabilitytomitigatetheproblemofunintended
consequencesbyusingrealisticmodelstopredicteffectsonlandvaluation,employmentpatterns,and
transportationmodechoice.Inurbanplanning,optimizingonesystemoftencomesattheexpenseof
functionalityinotherareas:theconstructionofmuchneededhousingcanleadtooverburdeningthelocal
transportationinfrastructurecampaignsforwaterconservationcan,ironically,damageacityswater
infrastructure.
Simulationallowsplannerstoanticipatecascadingeffectsacrossurbansystemsfromwatermanagement
toenergyandwastemanagementtoparking.Simulationsareanimportantbridgebetweentheoryand
experiment:withoutaffectingrealworldsituations,designerscanpredicttheoutcomeofinterventions
acrossarangeofscenariospecifications.Simulationshavethusbecomeanindispensabletoolforurban
planners.
Simulationsdrivenbybigdatacanalsohelptoamelioratelongstandingdemocraticdeficitsinthe
planningprocess.Makingdecisionsaboutthefutureofcitieshasalwaysreliedoninpersoninteraction,
asofficialssolicittheinputofcitizensinthecontextofcityhallhearingsorcommunityplanningmeetings.
Suchmeetingshistoricallyexcludemanyresidents:parentswhoaretakingcareoftheirchildrencannot
attendaneveningmeetingworkingpeoplecannotattendduringtheworkdayandcitizenswithlimited
Englishlanguagecapabilitiesmighthavedifficultyparticipatingwithouttranslators.Butarangeofnew
toolsareallowingurbanplannerstoexpandthescopeoftheirinputbydrawingindataonurbansystems
andallowingresidentstovoicetheirideasonline.
Simulationshavebeenusedformanyyears,withlandusemodelsandeconomicforecastingservinga
centralroleinurbanplanningsinceatleastthe1970s.Butthesemodelswerehamperedbylimited
technologies:atthetime,datacollectionwasdifficultandcostly,computationalpowerwasseverely
limited,analyticcapabilitieswererudimentary,andcomputerbasedvisualizationstilllayinthefuture.
Plannersusedstatisticalmodelstoestimatetherelationshipbetweenfactorslikepopulationgrowthand
urbandensity,butthesesimulationswerestillafarcryfromintegratedanalyticaltoolsandvehiclesfor
publicoutreachandengagement.
Muchhaschangedinrecentyears.Today,onlinedatacollectionandsensorsystemsintheenvironment
aregeneratingunprecedentedquantitiesofdata,enhancingthepredictivepowerofstatisticalmodels.
Spatialinformationsystemsarebecomingmoreadvanced,allowingforbettergeographicalanalysisand
compellingvisualizationsthatcancommunicatepotentialoutcomestocitizens.Andthegrowthbyleaps
andboundsofcomputingpowerallowsplannerstoeasilycalculatetheinterrelationshipsofmultiple
urbansystems.Onthebasisofthesetransformations,platformsforurbansimulationhaveproliferated,
includingbothcomprehensivesystemsandsystemspecificpredictiontools.

ComprehensiveUrbanSimulationPlatforms
Anumberofnewtoolshaveemergedtohelpurbanplanningresearchers,practitioners,andresidents
envisiontheimpactsofurbantransformation.UrbanSim,foundedbyUniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley
ProfessorPaulWaddell,allowsuserstorunsimulations,drawfromalibraryofopendata,andproduce
visualizations.Theprogram,whichisfreeandopensourcefromAutoDesk,isdesignedtohelpplanners
understandthediverseimpactsthatmightbeexpectedfromnewformsofstreetdesign,mixeduse
zoning,orpoliciestopromoteurbandensity.Inadditiontoopensourcecode,UrbanSimisgradually
developingalibraryofdatasetsfromthecitiesthatusethesystem,whichareaccessibletootherusers.

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UrbanSimaimstohelpurbanplannersbetterunderstandtheimpactofinterventions,butalsotoincrease
theinclusivenessandtransparencyofplanningprocessesbyinvolvingcitizensthroughout.Plannerscan
sharescenarioswithcitizensinvisuallycompellingways,butresidentscanalsogeneratetheirown
designsandsharetheirvisionwithneighborsandgovernmentofficials.
Alsoledbyacademicresearchers,MITsChangingPlacesinitiativehasdevelopedCityScope,anurban
simulationtoolthatintegratesphysicalrepresentationusingLegoswithprojectionsandvisualization
tools.Usingsophisticatedanalytics,userscanseetheimpactstobeexpectedfromshiftingdensityby
manipulatingtheLegos,orbysettingdifferentrulesforinfrastructureandmobilitysystems.Theinperson
visualizationtoolthushelpsplannersandstakeholderspredict,quantify,andvisualizetheoutcomeof
urbantransformation.Theprogram,whichisstillevolving,hasbeenusedtohelpofficialsandtheir
constituentsenvisiontheeffectsofchangefromRiyadhtoHamburgtoCambridgesKendallSquare.
WithParticipatoryChinatown,EmersonCollegeofferedamorehandsonapproachtocommunity
engagementthroughdigitalsimulation.Theprogramusedamultiplayergameformattoengagecitizens
inanumberofsimulatedneighborhoodactivitiesinsideadigitalrecreationofBostonsChinatown.Acting
asassignedcharactersandasthemselves,playerswereaskedtoexploreanumberofactivitieswithin
thegamefindingajob,aplacetolive,oraplacetosocializeandusetheexperiencetogenerate
urbanplanningprioritiestoguidecityofficials.
Governmentsarealsodevelopingtheirowntoolstohelppublicofficialsaccess,analyze,andinterpret
urbandata.Australiasurbanintelligencenetwork,orAURIN,isastaterunresourceforthenations
citiesandtownsthatprovidesdatasetsandonlinetoolsforanalysis,modeling,andvisualization.The
programaimstosupportevidencebasedpolicyanddecisionmakingincitiesandtownsacrossthe
country.Bycentralizingdataandanalyticstools,AURINensuresthatindividualcitiescanlimitredundant
effortsandbetterlearnfromoneanothersexperiences.

SimulatingSpecificUrbanSystems
Whileasmallnumberofgovernmentsanduniversitiesaretacklingcomprehensivesimulation,awide
rangeoftoolsarebeingdevelopedtomodelspecificurbansystems.Theoriginalurbanplanning
simulation,LandUseTransportinteraction,orLUTimodels,estimatepopulation,landuse,and
transportationparametersforurbandevelopmentoverthelongterm,often30to50years.Asexplained
inanoverviewfromtheCentreforAdvancedSpatialAnalysis,LUTimodelswereusedinthe1960sand
70sbuttheirusefulnesswaslimitedbydataqualityandcomputingpower.
WiththeriseofGISinthe1990s,thesemodelsbecamemoreinformativeanddatahasonlyincreased
fromthere.Smartphonesareproducingagrowingpoolofunstructureddataembeddedwithgeographic
information,whichplannerscanstarttointegrateintothepredictivemodels.Andcitiesarebeginningto
usethesetoolstohelpcitizensunderstandtheimpactofplannedorproposeddevelopments.InChicago,
theMetropolitanPlanningCouncildevelopedtheTODCalculator(forTransitOrientedDevelopment)to
helpresidentslearnabouttheeconomicandsustainabilitybenefitsofpotentialTODsites.
Anumberoftoolshaveemergedthatfocusspecificallyonsustainability,includingwaterandenergy
systems.PhoenixWaterSimwasdevelopedbyArizonaStateUniversityresearcherstohelpthePhoenix
metropolitangovernmentestimatesupplyanddemandinordertoeffectivelymanageitslimited
resources.WaterSimemphasizestheroleofvisualizationinhelpingtomakedataintelligibleand
accessibletostakeholdersanddecisionmakers.
Toaddresswatermanagementinaverydifferentclimate,theZofnassInformationToolwasdevelopedin
Chelsea,MA,tohelpcitizensunderstandopportunitiesforwatermanagementimprovementslikegreen
roofsandporouspavementandestimatetheenvironmentalbenefitsfromtheseinterventions.
Intheareaofenergy,bothurbanandbuildingdesignarecritical,andnewprogramscanhelpdesigners
andplannerspredictenergydemandandidentifyconservationopportunities.Umiisanurbanmodeling
platformrunbyMITsSustainableDesignLab,whichestimatestheenvironmentalperformanceof
buildingsandcitieswithmodulesforembodiedenergy,walkability,anddaylightandshading.Asimilar
programfromthecolePolytechniqueFdraledeLausanne,CitySim,allowsdesignerstoestimate
energydemandandplanfortheintegrationofrenewableenergysources.
Thisisjustthestart.Asevidencedbya2015conferenceatMITtheComputersinUrbanPlanningand
UrbanManagementconferenceresearchersaroundtheglobearehardatworkmodelingdiverseurban
systemstomeetdifferentcitychallenges.Bybringingtheseresearcherstogether,conferenceslikethis
onehelptoproducecollaborativenetworksofresearcherswhocanbetterdesignopportunitiesfor
integrationacrosssimulationplatforms.
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DespiteAdvances,ChallengesRemain
Althoughdata,analyticcapabilities,andaccessibilityarerapidlyexpanding,thereareimportant
challengesthaturbanplanners,designers,andstakeholdersstillface.Asinotherareasofbigdata,the
firstoftheseistheneedforsystemsthatcanmanageandintegratediversedata,pertainingtodistinctbut
interconnectedurbansystems.Collecting,cleaning,managing,andintegratingvariedformsofdata
remainsamajorchallenge.
Morefundamentally,thequestionofwhatgoesintosimulationmodelsandwhatgetsleftouthas
importantconsequences.Whatmightgowrongifamodelusedforplanningresidentialzonesfailsto
accountforthehistoricallegacyandcontinuedreproductionofhousingsegregation?Howmightthe
exclusionofrenewableenergysourcesfromtransportationplanningsimulationsskewthesenseofwhat
ispossibleforsustainablepublictransit?Justasimportantaswhatwedooncewerunthesimulationsare
thechoiceswemakewhenwebuildthem:ensuringthatthemodelsunderlyingtheseinformative
experimentsrepresentabalancedandunbiasedsetofassumptions.
Whatgoesintothesimulationmodel?AnexamplefromUrbanSim

Source:UrbanSim
Finally,inorderforsimulationstotrulydriveinclusionintheplanningprocess,designersmustfindwaysto
makesoftwarefeeluseabletoanontechnicalaudience.Ideally,stakeholdersshouldbeabletodevelop
theirownsimulationswithoutindepthknowledgeaboutdatasourcesandstatisticalmodels,sothatthey
candeveloptheirownunderstandingofwhatispossibleintheircity.Onlywithsimple,accessible
simulationprogramscancitizensbecomeactivegeneratorsoftheirownurbanvisions,notjustpassive
recipientsofoptionslaidoutbygovernmentofficials.

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