Ocean Engineering
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/oceaneng
art ic l e i nf o
a b s t r a c t
Article history:
Received 22 July 2015
Received in revised form
14 December 2015
Accepted 20 March 2016
Available online 31 March 2016
As platforms age, ensuring their continued integrity becomes increasingly. The current life extension and
repair decision-making processes within ageing platforms are typically based on the DHGF algorithm,
which was established in order to provide reasonable predictions about the lifespan of ageing platforms,
make accurate repair decisions, and reduce risks related to uncertain and complicated environments. The
algorithm contains 18 indicators based on the Delphi method, which together-build a complete evaluation system. In this study, the hierarchical structures were established by analyzing and adjusting four
dimensions - project factors, risk factors, load factors, and structural factors, and all of them affect the
ageing platform service state. The Analytic Hierarchy Process determined a weighted subset. Gray
weights were calculated using the gray model theory, and fuzzy mathematics was then applied to form
grade evaluation for the ageing platform. A complete evaluation criterion for life extension and repair
decision-making was established, and the comprehensive score was calculated by a sequence of computational steps. Analysis showed that the decision making of this platform is Major repair, fatigue
cracks, corrosion, and marine foulingthese factors must be addressed rst. The results conrm that the
proposed model accurately describes the dynamic, economic lifespan of ageing platforms.
& 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords:
Ageing platforms
Life extension and repair decisions
DHGF algorithm
Gray theory
1. Introduction
An offshore platform is the most important equipment utilized
within offshore oil exploitation. They are complex in structure and
costly to build, and will take with a life of approximately 1520 years.
Ageing offshore platforms in China are widely distributed throughout
Bohai Bay to the South China Sea. The shallow sea platform in Bohai
Bay, exceeded its design life in 2009. It is estimated that more than
two-thirds of the world's ageing platforms will continue working for
5 or 10 years after their design life. Although the lengthy design life of
platforms seems rather conservative, once they have been designed
successfully, they will maintain a long-term, stable safety status
throughout the maintenance stage. As far as life extension, the most
critical issues that must be considered are the evaluation of a platform's safety conditions, and appropriate decision-making in terms of
repair grades.
Previous researchers Bea and Moan built a system of reassessment and requalication criteria for platforms, as well as
probabilistic inspection planning of the jacket structures (Bea
et al., 2000; Moan et al., 2000, 1999). Havbro et al. later proposed a
risk monitoring method, which is applicable to structural life
n
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: 16300371@qq.com (Y. Lu).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2016.03.048
0029-8018/& 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
extension (Havbro et al., 2005). Around the same time, the research team Galbraith et al. studied platform structure integrity
management, and proposed a life extension system for ageing
platforms (Galbraith et al., 2005). Nielsen et al. later studied operation and maintenance of offshore wind turbine components
based on risk (Nielsen et al., 2011). At present, domestic studies on
life extension of ageing platforms are typically focused on defect
assessment (Chen, 2001). Life extension and/or repair decisionmaking models have been lacking relevant research.
There is uncertainty inherent to the use, maintenance, and life
extension of ageing platforms. Researchers Chang and Kaisa stated
that there is a wide variation between measured results and actual
results due to fuzziness (Chang et al., 1994; Kaisa, 1998). Managing
this discrepancy critical within life extension and repair decisionmaking, and a careful balance must be maintained between costsaving benets and potential risk. In this study, qualitative analysis
was combined with the quantitative analysis to comprehensively
evaluate risk factors, which inform life extension, and repair decisions based on DHGF theory. The paper builds a decision-making
model of life extension and repair based on DHGF theory, which is
benecial for leaders to make decisions by quantifying methods,
improve the level of scientic decision-making and achieve the
aim for prolonging the service life of offshore platform. By the
comprehensive evaluation of risk factors, the model may offer
valuable refereces information to the leaders.
3. Modeling procedure
General uncertainty regarding the use, maintenance, and risks
inherent to the life extension and repair of the existing ageing
239
Table 1
Comparison in the advantage and disadvantage of different evaluation models.
Methods
Advantage
Disadvantage
Delphi method
1. Simplicity
2. It has broadly representative.
AHP method
Grey theory
1.
2.
3.
1.
1.
2.
3.
1.
2.
3.
1.
2.
1.
2.
3.
4.
Fuzzy evaluation
DHGF model
method
for
obscure
1. Subjectivity is strong.
2. There are problems with judgment is inexact or results are not
comparable.
1. The request of sample size is more.
2. A great deal of calculation is needed.
240
Table 2
Nine-point pair-wise comparison scale.
Numerical value Verbal meaning for risk factor evaluation
1
2
Equally preferred
Equally to moderately
preferred
Moderately preferred
Moderately to strongly
preferred
Strongly preferred
Strongly to very strongly
preferred
Very strongly preferred
Equally important
Equally to moderately more
important
Moderately more important
Moderately to strongly more
important
Strongly more important
Strongly to very strongly
more important
Very strongly more
important
Very strongly to extremely
more important
Extremely more important
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
d /d
dli [0, d1]
li 1
f1(dli ) = 1
dli [d1, )
0 dli ( , 0)
d /d
dli [0, d1]
li 1
CI
max =
n
,
max is the
= max
n1
n
n
1
i = 1 ( j = 1 aijwj/wi ); n
n
judgment matrix.
Satty dened the consistency ratio CR as , when , consistency of
judgment matrix can be acceptable, when , when consistency fails
to meet the requirement, the judgment matrix need to be revised.
RI represents the average random consistency index and is shown
in Table 3.
Once all comparisons have been made, and the relative weights
of each criterion have been evaluated, the numerical probability of
each alternative can be calculated.
Step 3: Build the evaluation sample matrix.
Let number of experts equal r : E = {E1, E2, , Er}. Evaluation
sample of the ith index Oi is represented as dli from the lth expert.
Evaluation matrix D was obtained in accordance with data
provided by the expert panel, as follows:
d d
11 12
d d
D = (dli )r n 21 22
dl1 dl2
d1n
d2n
(1 l r )
dln
3
0.58
4
0.90
5
1.12
d2 dli
dli [d1, d2]
f3 (dli ) =
d2 d1
0
dli (0, d2)
(4)
nij =
f j (dli)
(5)
(1)
Table 3
Average random index.
2
0.00
ni =
1
0.00
(3)
i=1
n
RI
(2)
6
1.24
7
1.32
8
1.41
9
1.45
nij
(6)
j=1
r11
r
R = 21
rn1
r12
r22
rn2
r1m
r2m
rnm
(7)
r11
r
A = WR = W1, W2, , Wn 21
rn1
r12
r22
rn2
r1m
r2m
rnm
(8)
241
= A VT
(9)
4. Application
This paper took an ageing shallow sea platform in Bohai Bay, as
a research project. The platform was completed in 1994, and was
designed for the last 15 years. The design life of this ageing platform was exceeded in 2009. In order to meet the production demands, this platform must continue to function safely and
correctly.
Since 2003, leadership was forced to extend the life of this
platform, using all of the available information. Leaders were able
to apply the new repair decision-making model to this platform.
For leadership, the decision-making model can improve the science, objectivity, pertinence and validity of life extension and
repair.
Management must understand and master not only platform
design and reconstruction, but also the material performance and
load as they change over time change in order to prolong the life of
this platform. In addition, failure risk and risk tolerance level must
factor into life extension decisions. Risk factors inherent to the
ageing platform must be taken into account, and scientic and
effective evaluation system must be employed in order to make
informed decisions.
In view of the actual situation of the platform, set up life extension steering group (LESG), its members include top executives,
experienced staffs, ocean engineering experts, and safety experts.
n
and of AHP method. max = 4.0062, RI = 0.90, CI = max
=
n1
4.0062 4
41
Fig. 2. Hierarchical structure of the inuencing factors for ageing platform status assessment.
242
Table 4
Pair wise comparison of criterion layer safety evaluation index.
Risk factors
Project
Risk
Load
Structure
Weight
Project
1
2
3
5
1/2
1
1/3
1/5
2/3
1
1/2
0.0929
0.1966
Risk
Load
Structure
3/2
2
4/3
0.2948
3/4
1
0.4517
In the same manner, the weight set Wi of the index layer can be
obtained in accordance with the criterion layer.
0 dli [0, )
Let the second grey cluster Slightly good equal 2, e = 2, and
grey number 2 [0, 4, 8], so its whitened function is expressed
as follows:
d /4
dli [0, 4]
li
dli [0, 8]
0
0
dli [0, 6]
Let the fourth grey cluster Slightly bad equal 4, e = 4 , and grey
number 4 [0, 2, 4], so its whitened function is expressed as
follows:
d /2
dli [0, 2]
li
0
dli [0, 4]
Table 5
Scoring criteria for ageing platform life extension and repair decisions.
Index
Renovation
Service time/year
Ship collision
Fire or explosion
Submarine landslide
Environment pollution
Falling objects
Max wind speed ( ms1)
Highest wave (m)
Max ow velocity ( ms1)
Maximum ice load
Extreme load history
Collision damage
Fatigue cracks
Corrosion
Material degradation
Pile foundation scour/m
Marine fouling/cm
Score
Not degraded
<12
No risk
No risk
No risk
No risk
No risk
<18
Slightly degraded
12 18
Low risk
Low risk
Low risk
Low risk
Low risk
18 25
Obviously degraded
18 22
Signicant risk
Signicant risk
Signicant risk
Signicant risk
Signicant risk
>25
Seriously degraded
22 25
High risk
High risk
High risk
High risk
High risk
Extremely
>25
Serious risk
Serious risk
Serious risk
Serious risk
Serious risk
<3
<80
36
80 150
>6
>150
150
0
0.002
No aw
> 600
2
0.005 < 0.02
0.001 < 0.03
0.03 < 0.08
Obvious
0.6 1.8
10 20
3
0.02 < 0.1
0.03 < 0.15
0.08 < 0.25
Serious
1.8 4.0
20 35
>3
> 0.1
> 0.15
> 0.25
Extreme
1.8 4.0
>35
0.005
No
<0.06
<1
is the dent factor, is the crack factor, is the corrosion factor; is the ice load factor.
243
Table 6
Evaluation score of experts.
dli
O1
O2
O3
O4
O5
O6
O7
O8
O9
O10
O11
O12
O13
O14
O15
O16
O17
O18
E1
E2
5
4
4
3
4
3
4
4
3
3
4
4
3
3
4
3
4
4
4
3
4
4
5
5
4
4
4
3
3
5
3
3
2
3
4
3
3
3
3
4
3
4
3
3
3
4
5
4
3
4
3
4
3
4
5
4
4
4
5
3
3
4
4
5
3
4
4
3
4
3
2
3
3
4
2
3
3
2
4
3
4
3
5
4
3
5
4
5
3
5
5
4
4
4
4
5
4
4
3
4
3
3
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
3
4
4
3
5
4
3
5
3
2
3
4
3
3
2
3
4
3
3
2
4
3
2
3
3
3
3
3
4
5
3
5
4
5
4
5
4
5
3
2
4
3
3
2
3
2
3
2
4
2
3
2
4
3
3
2
4
3
E3
E4
E5
E6
E7
E8
E9
E10
4
3
4
3
Table 7
Evaluation grade.
Evaluation grade
Good
Relatively good
Medium
Relatively bad
Bad
Grade scale
= A V T = 3.77
10
n11 =
n1 =
The weight matrix of grey evaluation can also be obtained according to rij = nij /ni
0.2866
0.2748
0.3377
0.2259
0.2748
0.2284
0.2989
0.2158
0.2866
R=
0.3656
0.3114
0.4801
0.3312
0.2209
0.2105
0.3724
0.2001
0.2264
0.3389
0.3435
0.3604
0.2823
0.3244
0.3796
0.3343
0.2697
0.3389
0.3508
0.3693
0.3601
0.3715
0.2760
0.2632
0.3597
0.2502
0.2830
0.2971
0.3053
0.2607
0.3279
0.3053
0.2912
0.2882
0.3099
0.2971
0.2411
0.2794
0.1598
0.2793
0.3191
0.3267
0.2256
0.3087
0.3019
0.0775
0.0763
0.0412
0.1639
0.0954
0.1008
0.0786
0.2046
0.0775
0.0425
0.0399
0
0
0.1840
0.1996
0.0423
0.2409
0.1887
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Table 8
The statistics of repair records.
Repair grade
Current repair
Minor repair
Medium repair
Major repair
Overhaul
Fully repair
Repair times
Range of status value
183
[4.38, 4.84]
103
[3.91, 4.52]
59
[3.78, 4.19]
23
[3.46, 3.82]
11
[3.13, 3.56]
3
[2.81, 3.32]
244
Table 9
Platform life extension and repair decision-making reference table.
Items
Score
5.0 4.7
4.7 4.4
4.4 4.1
4.1 3.8
3.8 3.5
3.5 3.2
3.2 2.9
2.9 2.6
2.6 2.3
<2.3
Safety grade
Repair grade
1
a
3
c
6
f
5
7
g
8
g
10
4
d
7
5
e
2
b
9
9
h
2
10
h
1
a. No repair; b. Current repair; c. Minor repair; d. Medium repair; e. Major repair; f . Overhaul; g. Fully repair; h. Ready to obsolete.
Table 10
Comprehensive score of platform service state.
Service time/year
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
4.88
4.62
4.72
9
10
b
4.54
4.66
9
9
b
4.34
4.53
8
9
c
4.26
4.47
8
9
c
4.12
4.35
8
8
c
3.96
4.43
7
9
d
4.14
4.32
8
8
c
3.85
4.37
7
8
d
3.82
4.31
7
8
d
3.77
4.71
6
10
e
10
Fig. 3. Score and life extension time of platform before and after repairs.
5. Conclusion
The case analysis presented in this study found that the design
life of an ageing offshore platform is not only just dependent on its
service life. Moreover, the design life alone does not reect the
dynamic effects of the highly uncertain environment surrounding
a platform. A fuzzy life extension and repair decision-making
model was introduced, which provides an exact description of the
life process for offshore platforms, as they vary with time. The
proposed model is particularly applicable to many ageing platforms that are currently functioning safely and cost-effectively.
This paper focuses on life extension and repair decision-making
technology, in addition to an adaptive adjustment mechanism for
inuential factors according to the service conditions of ageing
platforms. The process of life extension and repair decision-making is a continuous closed loop. This cycle includes the stages of
evaluation, decision making, repair, and feedback.
Analysis showed that the safety grade of this platform is 5, with
the repair decision being a Major repair. Fatigue cracks, corrosion,
and marine fouling need to be strengthened as well.
There are currently no uniform standards for grading offshore
oil platform life extension and a general dearth of relevant theories. Comprehensive analysis of risk is a difcult endeavor in
ageing platforms, as they are highly complex systems under the
inuence of a wide variety of factors. The specic processes of
choosing indexes and determining clusters still require further
study.
245
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