THE ESTIMATE OF SUPPLYING AND DEMAND TO THE LONG-TERM ENERGY

BASED ON ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION INTENSITY AND INSTALLED CAPACITY

POWER PLANT IN ACEH PROVINCE INDONESIA
Kafrawi Muhammad Tuara
kafrawi@mail.ugm.ac.id
Postgraduate Program of System Engineering, Department of Engineering
Universitas Gadjah Mada Yogyakarta, Indonesia

Abstract
Electrical energy consumption is influenced by households and economic growth. Gross
Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) at 2000 constant prices into the parameters of the
growth sectors of business, industry, public and social because this sector is closely related
to economic growth. As to the household sector is using the benchmarks of household growth
itself. Based on the data processing using the LEAP software is acquired the total
consumption of electricity energy. The analysis results shows the increased of consumption
electricity energy in every times. The increase in electricity consumption in 2013 and 2030
would be reached about 63%.
Keywords: Aceh Province, Electricity, Energy Supply and demand, LEAP, Estimate

A. Introduction
Until now, Indonesia still faces problems in achieving development in the field of
energy. Dependence on fossil fuels, particularly oil in fulfilling domestic
consumption is still high at 96% (petroleum 48%, gas 18% and coal 30%) of the
total consumption and to maximize the utilization of renewable energy is not
capable of running as planned. The high consumption of fossil energy is caused by
the subsidies so that energy prices become cheaper and people tend wasteful in
energy use. On the other hand, where the Indonesian National face of declining fossil
energy reserves that continues to occur and cannot be offset by the discovery of new
reserves. While the limitations of the available energy infrastructure also limits
people's access to energy. This condition causes Indonesia is vulnerable to
disturbance in the global energy market because most of the consumption,
especially petroleum products, met from imports. This has a direct impact on all
areas particularly in the Aceh Province.
1) Cast a glance at Aceh Province
Aceh province is geographically located between 2o - 6o North Latitude and 95o 98o East Longitude with an average altitude of 125 meters above sea level, with
an area of 5,677,081 ha. The boundaries of Aceh province, in the north and east
bordering the Malacca Strait, the southern province of North Sumatra and west
by the Indonesian Ocean. The mainly grounded of relationships only with North
Sumatra Province, so it has a high dependency North Sumatra Province. Based on
the administration of the territory, till 2010 Aceh province is divided into 18
districts and five cities, consists of 280 districts, 755 residences and 6423
villages. The total area of the largest districts is in West Aceh (about 542 709
km2), South Aceh (about 417 659 km2), South East Aceh Tenggara (about 416
963 km2), Central Aceh Tengah (about 445.404 km2), West Aceh and Pidie
(about 316. 924 km2) widely.

Figure 1. Map of Aceh Province Administration

Figure 2. Map of Electrical Networks in Aceh Province

2) Socio-Economic and Demographic

a) Population
The population in the Aceh province in 2010 reached 4.48657 million
inhabitants with population density 1 inhabitants per km2. Population
distribution in Aceh province are still based in North Aceh District,
amounting to 11.81 percent and amounted to 8.67 percent Bireuen district
while the lowest was in the District Subulussalam of 1.50 percent. While the
views of overcrowding District / Municipal highest population density are
Banda Aceh that as many as 40 people per km2 and Kota Lhokseumawe that
as many as 11 people per km2. In the terms of growth rate over in the last ten
years (2000-2010) about 2.32 percent higher than the national growth of the
national population (1.49%). While the rate of population growth for the
district / city is highest in Aceh Singkil 5.49 percent while the lowest was in
Subulussalam minus -0.42 percent.
Table 1: Regional spacious and Population Density Number of
districts/municipalities in Aceh Province, 2010

B. METHODOLOGY
1) Model
The LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternative Planning) is an integrated energy
modeling tool developed at Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI). LEAP is
widely used for energy policy analysis and climate change mitigation. It has been
used in more than 190 countries worldwide. LEAP model based on accounting
with flexibility and a wide range of expertise. It can be used to track energy
demand, transformation and resources. Various energy systems might be
modeled. It because of LEAP is not a model of particular energy system [3].
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In addition, LEAP also has the ability to support some of different modeling
methodologies. For example on the demand side can be used to assist bottom-up, enduse and top-down macroeconomic modeling. On the supply side, LEAP provides a
range of accounting, simulation and optimization methodologies that are powerful
enough for modeling electric sector generation and capacity expansion planning, but
which are also sufficiently flexible and transparent to allow LEAP to easily
incorporate data and results from other more specialized models. Another key benefit
of LEAP is its low initial data requirements [3].
The model used in analyzing the supply and demand of electric power is the LEAP
(Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System) with this line of thinking, as in
Figure 2.1. LEAP is an integrated modeling tool with scenario based on the
environment and energy. LEAP combines an analysis of energy consumption;
transformation and production in an energy system by using indicators include
demographic indicators, economic development, technology, price, policy and
regulation.

Figure 3. Flow Modeling Thought

2) Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP)
GRDP of Aceh Province by the undertaking at Current Market Prices (ADHB)
with oil and gas in 2012 reached 96 161 billion higher than the previous year.
GRDP ADHB with oil and gas province of Aceh contributed 1.43 percent to the
national GDP (33 provinces). As for the GDP ADHK 2000 with oil and gas
amounted to 36,600 billion, while non-oil amounted to 32.77 billion.
Table 2: GRDP by ADHB and ADHK of Aceh Province, Year 2008-2012. Billion Rupiah

The economic structure in Aceh Province in 2011, it is dominated by the

contribution of the agricultural sector with a contribution about 27.89%, trade,
hotels and restaurants (16.03%), and mining (11.64%). Other sectors that have
significant contribution are the services sector (11.52%), and transport and
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communications (10.95%). So, the demand of electricity is in the other sectors

category.
3) Data
The Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) changed the base year for calculating GDP
from 2000 to 2010. The calculation of GDP constant price is obtained by using
the deflation and extrapolation method. It causes small differences in the rate of
economic growth in Indonesia. Data energy consumption obtained until 2015
made model energy to can see power demand household, industry, business,
transportation, and other sectors.
a) The Analyses of Electric Energy Consumption

And then, according (Suhono; 2010) explanation in the book of User Guide for
Version 2011 that figure out that energy demand can be calculated as the
multiplication of total activity the use of the energy intensity of each branch
of technology (technology branch).
Electrical energy consumption demand equation is as follows.
..........................................................................

Information:
D : Demand (Demand),
TA : total activity (Total Activity),
EI : Energy Intensity (Energy Intensity),
b : "branches" (branch),
s : the type of scenario (scenario),
t : the calculation (starting year to year basis the end of the calculation).

(i)

b) Final electricity demand analysis

Energy demand in accounting method is calculated as the product of the

activity of total energy consumption by energy intensity. Calculation of
energy demand is done by using the following equation:
.................................................................

(ii)

Where D is electricity demand (kWh), TA is total activity, EI is electricity

intensity, b is branch (sector of customer), s is scenario and t is time (year). In the
final electricity demand analysis, energy intensity at device level can specified as
amount of fuel used per unit of activity. Energy intensity is the average annual
energy consumption per unit of activity. Mathematically expressed in the
equation:
...............................................................
(iii)
Where EC is the energy consumption (kWh) and EI is the intensity of energy
(kWh/level of activity).

C. THE ANALISYS GOALS

As for some of the conclusions resulting from the analysis using LEAP are as follows:
1) The electricity consumption of 2014 households was 29,964,807 Kwh or 30 Gwh.
Then, in 2030 the results of the estimated electricity consumption reached
38,995,343 Kwh or 39 GWh. It is influenced by the growth of households reached
1.66% per year with the number of households reached 81 894 households in
2030.
Table 2: Scenarios for Power Plant
Types of Power
Plant
PLTA
PLTG
PLTGU
PLTP
PLTU
PTMPD
PLTD

LEAP Formula
step(2016, 79, 2017, 167, 2020, 392)
step(2015, 200, 2016, 225)
step(2018, 250)
step(2019, 10, 2022, 120)
step(2014, 220, 2015, 234, 2019, 634)
step(2016, 14)
step(2013,250)

Figure 4. Exogenous Capacity Process in Mega Watt

2) Industry sector electricity consumption of 2014 is 4,340,526.40 kWh or 4.5 Gwh.
Then, in 2030 the results of the estimated electricity consumption reached
7,018.868.45 Kwh or 7 Gwh. It is influenced by economic growth in the field of
industry, which reached 3.14% per year to reach Rp.178.328.000,94 (One
Hundred Seventy Eight Million Three Hundred Twenty Eight Thousand Four
point Ninety Rupiah), in 2030.
3) Business sector electricity consumption is 2014 kWh or 7.5 Gwh 7218767.1.
Then, in 2030 the results of the estimated electricity consumption reached
11,838,510.5 kWh or 12 Gwh. It is influenced by economic growth in the areas of
Business, which reached 3.14% per year to reach Rp 363,925,000.93 (Three
Hundred Sixty Three Million Nine Hundred Twenty Five Thousand Nine Three
point Rupiah) in 2030.
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4) Social sector electricity consumption of 2014 is 1,587,719.27 or 1.6 Kwh Gwh.

Then, in 2030 the results of the estimated electricity consumption reached
2,950,975.58 Kwh or 3 Gwh. It is influenced by economic growth in the social
field, which reached 3.95% per year to reach 19,184,000.60 (Nineteen Million
One Hundred Eighty Four Thousand point Sixty Rupiah) in 2030.
5) Public sector electricity consumption is 2014 kWh or 5.8 Gwh 5653356.9. Then,
in 2030 the results of the estimated electricity consumption reached
23,870,074.4 kWh or 24 Gwh. It is influenced by economic growth in the public
sphere, which reached 9.42% per year to reach Rp. 767,033,000.24 (Seven
Hundred Sixty Seven Million Thirty Three Thousand Rupiah point Twenty Four)
in 2030.
D. Conclusion
Based on the software processing results in estimate that the total consumption of
electricity in Aceh Province on five sectors in 2013 was reaching about 48.8 GWh,
while, in 2030 the total energy consumption would be reached 76.5 GWh, the
household sector accounted for the largest increase in consumption compared with
other sectors for each year. Absolutely, it would be happen in every district in Aceh
Province based on estimate analysis.
References
[1] Data Statistic of Aceh Province. Provinsi Aceh Dalam Angka 2015. Banda Aceh: BPS;
2015.
[2] Stockholm Environment Institute. Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System,
User
Guide. Boston: Stockholm Environment Institute; 2006.
[3] RUPTL, PLN. Rencana Usaha Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik PT Perusahaan Listrik
Negara (Persero)Tahun 2016-2025. Jakarta: PLN; 2016.
[4] PLN Cabang Kuala Simpang, 2013, Data Konsumsi energi listrik Aceh Tamiang,
PLN Aceh Tamiang.
[5] Prihandita Ria Septiana, 2014, Proyeksi Konsumsi Energi Kota Yogyakarta, Tesis,
Program Pascasarjana Fakultas Teknik Universitas Gajah Mada.
[6] Undang-Undang No 30 tahun 2009 Tentang Ketenaga Listrikan.
[7] Wijaya, E.M, Ridwan M.K, 2009, Modul Pelatihan Perencanaan Energi, Jurusan
Teknik Fisika Fakultas Teknik Universitas Gajah Mada.