1 AUG 2016
CAPITAL GOODS
Rs 1,559
Target Price
Rs 1,461
Nifty
8,639
Sensex
28,052
LT IN
932
1,451/21,672
2,928
Rs 1,844 / 1,016
3M
6M
12M
Absolute (%)
24.3
41.5
(12.9)
Relative (%)
14.7
28.7
(14.7)
41.05
FIIs
16.98
41.97
Source : BSE
Slight disappointment
L&Ts 1QFY17 results were marginally below our
expectation as the core EPC revenue grew 6% YoY
(vs. expectation of 11%) and EPC EBIT margins
declined 30bps YoY (vs. our estimate of 40bps
improvement). Order inflows stood at Rs 297bn (14%
YoY), but its unclear whether they included the large
orders announced post-Jun-16. Working capital (as
percentage of sales) remained at FY16-end levels of
~24%. While we are yet to formulate our new
estimates, the management expects its Ind AS
revenues to be ~Rs 1tn. It continues to maintain its
guidance on margins (50bps improvement on new
revised base) and order inflows (~15% YoY growth).
After the recent run-up, the stock leaves little room
for disappointment. Working capital, an important
metric for L&T, remains high. There is risk to L&Ts
order inflows from the Middle East (crude witnessing
fall) and the defence segment (slow momentum). We
believe the stock factors in all the positives and is
more than fairly valued. We maintain NEUTRAL with
an SOTP-based TP of Rs 1,461 (22x FY18E P/E for the
core EPC business).
Financial Summary (Consolidated)
Rs mn
1QFY17
Net Sales
218,738
EBITDA
19,050
PAT
6,096
Diluted EPS (Rs)
6.5
P/E (x)
EV / EBITDA (x)
RoE (%)
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
1QFY16
200,482
16,411
4,189
4.5
YoY (%)
9
16
46
46
4QFY16
331,570
48,592
24,051
25.8
QoQ (%)
(34)
(61)
(75)
(75)
FY15
851,284
138,898
45,467
49.1
31.8
15.7
12.7
FY16P
FY17E
FY18E
920,046 1,026,317 1,128,817
154,937 173,325 191,771
44,171
47,324
56,221
47.5
50.8
60.4
32.8
30.7
25.8
14.5
13.4
12.8
11.2
11.1
12.2
HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO> & Thomson Reuters
(Rs mn)
Net Sales
Material Expenses
Employee Expenses
SG&A Expenses
EBITDA
Interest Cost
Depreciation
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Adj PAT
Extraordinary items
Reported PAT
1QFY17
218,738
149,750
34,200
15,738
19,050
3,375
4,648
3,024
14,052
5,488
6,096
0
6,096
1QFY16
200,482
139,006
31,494
13,572
16,411
3,893
4,658
2,833
10,692
4,282
4,189
0
4,189
YoY (%)
9
4QFY16
331,570
244,355
22,421
16,203
48,592
7,737
8,203
2,182
35,319
9,537
24,051
(485)
23,566
16
46
46
QoQ (%)
FY16
(34) 1,026,317
652,099
139,515
61,378
(61)
173,325
30,412
27,560
39
15,411
80,867
25,487
(75)
47,324
3,581
(74)
50,905
FY16
920,046
590,543
120,034
54,531
154,937
28,507
26,225
13,549
72,172
22,836
44,171
3,477
47,648
YoY (%)
12
12
14
7
7
1QFY17
68.5
1QFY16
69.3
YoY (%)
-88
4QFY16
73.7
QoQ (%)
-524
FY16
63.5
FY16
64.2
YoY (%)
-65
15.6
15.7
-7
6.8
887
13.6
13.0
55
7.2
8.7
2.8
6.8
8.2
2.1
43
52
70
4.9
14.7
7.3
231
-595
-447
6.0
16.9
4.6
5.9
16.8
4.8
5
5
-19
Page | 2
(Rs mn)
Segmental Revenues
-Infrastructure
-Power
-Heavy engineering
-Hydrocarbon
Engineering & Construction
-Electrical And Automation
-IT and TS
-Financial Services
-Developmental Projects
-Others
-Intersegment Revenue
Total
EBIT
-Infrastructure
-Power
-Heavy engineering
-Hydrocarbon
Engineering & Construction
-Electrical And Automation
-IT and TS
-Financial Services
-Developmental Projects
-Others
Total
1QFY17
1QFY16
YoY (%)
4QFY16
92,875
17,227
7,338
21,457
138,897
10,812
23,749
20,907
13,831
18,181
(7,640)
218,738
85,043
10,788
6,444
21,546
123,821
11,140
20,633
17,817
11,382
21,223
(5,533)
200,482
9
60
14
(0)
12
(3)
15
17
22
(14)
38
9
186,549
21,850
10,721
24,875
243,994
15,992
23,631
19,964
12,996
29,520
(12,109)
333,987
6,791
891
671
94
8,447
361
4,550
2,545
980
(720)
16,162
5,933
(84)
239
124
6,213
210
3,201
1,838
436
1,547
13,444
14
(1,165)
180
(25)
36
72
42
38
125
(147)
20
29,147
1,977
(234)
(920)
29,971
2,083
4,292
2,114
622
3,482
42,564
QoQ (%)
FY16
(50)
503,869
(21)
70,107
(32)
33,232
(14)
88,398
(43)
695,605
(32)
54,463
1
91,166
5
75,412
6
51,461
(38)
99,717
(37) (32,602)
(35) 1,035,222
(77)
(55)
(386)
(110)
(72)
(83)
6
20
57
(121)
(62)
52,741
5,926
(1,920)
(154)
56,592
4,989
16,983
10,285
6,219
11,698
106,765
12
48
(8)
19
15
(0)
19
18
(1)
(1)
24
12
42,510
5,486
2,270
(13,428)
36,838
5,492
13,165
10,158
16,809
14,311
96,773
24
8
(185)
(99)
54
(9)
29
1
(63)
(18)
10
Page | 3
(%)
Infrastructure
Power
Heavy Engineering
Hydrocarbon
Electrical And Automation
IT and TS
Financial Services
Developmental Projects
Others
1QFY17
7.3
5.2
9.1
0.4
3.3
19.2
12.2
7.1
(4.0)
1QFY16
7.0
(0.8)
3.7
0.6
1.9
15.5
10.3
3.8
7.3
YoY (%)
34
595
542
NM
145
365
186
325
-1125
4QFY16
15.6
9.0
(2.2)
(3.7)
13.0
18.2
10.6
4.8
11.8
QoQ (%)
-831
-387
1132
NM
-969
99
159
229
-1576
FY16
10.5
8.5
(5.8)
(0.2)
9.2
18.6
13.6
12.1
11.7
FY16
9.5
11.6
6.3
(18.1)
10.1
17.2
15.9
32.3
14.3
YoY (%)
99
-312
-1204
NM
-90
144
-223
-2026
-254
(Rs mn)
Net Sales
Material Expenses
Employee Expenses
SG&A Expenses
EBITDA
Interest Cost
Depreciation
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Adj PAT
E/o (adj for tax)
Reported PAT
1QFY17
121,500
92,441
12,898
6,520
9,642
3,311
2,793
4,826
7,863
2,396
5,967
(500)
5,467
1QFY16
114,437
88,423
11,452
6,046
8,515
3,154
2,688
5,222
7,895
2,263
5,632
0
5,632
YoY (%)
6
QoQ (%)
(42)
(3)
4QFY16
210,613
162,131
10,372
6,178
31,932
3,973
2,545
7,367
32,007
6,616
26,164
(773)
25,391
1QFY17
76.1
10.6
5.4
7.9
4.9
1QFY16
77.3
10.0
5.3
7.4
4.9
YoY (%)
-119
61
8
49
-1
4QFY16
77.0
4.9
2.9
15.2
12.4
QoQ (%)
-90
569
243
-723
-751
13
(8)
(70)
(34)
(77)
(78)
Page | 4
(Rs mn)
Segmental Revenues
-Infrastructure
-Power
-Heavy engineering
Engineering & Construction
-Electrical And Automation
-Others
-Intersegment Revenue
Total
EBIT
-Infrastructure
-Power
-Heavy Engineering
Engineering & Construction
-Electrical And Automation
-Others
Total
Segmental Margins (EBIT)(%)
-Infrastructure
-Power
-Heavy Engineering
-Electrical And Automation
-Others
1QFY17
1QFY16
YoY (%)
4QFY16
QoQ (%)
FY16
FY16
YoY (%)
80,740
17,227
6,748
104,714
8,435
10,856
(2,505)
121,500
78,394
10,788
6,001
95,183
8,474
12,643
(1,863)
114,437
3
60
12
10
(0)
(14)
34
6
159,488
19,005
9,462
187,956
12,360
16,836
(4,833)
212,318
(49)
(9)
(29)
(44)
(32)
(36)
(48)
(43)
421,753
64,513
29,349
515,614
42,284
59,113
(12,861)
604,150
406,520
44,590
32,993
484,102
41,294
61,307
(11,122)
575,581
4
45
(11)
7
2
(4)
16
5
6,141
891
702
7,735
784
(33)
8,485
5,894
(84)
349
6,159
635
419
7,213
27,567
494
(99)
27,963
1,789
1,852
31,604
44,424
2,015
3,361
49,800
5,039
8,921
63,760
13
15
(122)
4
(1)
(33)
(1)
7.5
(0.8)
5.8
7.5
3.3
(78)
80
(811)
(72)
(56)
(102)
(73)
QoQ (bps)
-968
257
1145
-518
-1130
50,366
2,314
(746)
51,934
5,010
5,982
62,926
7.6
5.2
10.4
9.3
(0.3)
4
(1,165)
101
26
23
(108)
18
YoY (bps)
9
595
460
179
-362
11.9
3.6
(2.5)
11.8
10.1
10.9
4.5
10.2
12.2
14.6
101
-93
-1273
-35
-443
17.3
2.6
(1.0)
14.5
11.0
Page | 5
EBITDA (Consolidated)
1QFY16
8.9%
1.2%
8.9%
2.3%
5.8%
18.4%
5.9%
12.0%
Infrastructure
Power
Heavy Engineering
Hydrocarbon
Electrical And Automation
IT & Technology Services
Developmental Projects
Others
2QFY16
8.6%
16.1%
-15.9%
2.9%
12.9%
21.1%
25.9%
18.9%
3QFY16
7.9%
10.5%
1.6%
4.2%
12.4%
22.8%
25.0%
26.1%
4QFY16
16.4%
11.5%
2.5%
-1.7%
18.5%
21.4%
26.4%
17.5%
1QFY17
9.2%
5.8%
14.9%
2.0%
7.8%
21.9%
9.8%
-0.2%
Others
5%
Hydrocarbon
8%
Others
7%
E&A
1%
Infra
40%
Heavy Engg
3%
Process
0%
Power
1%
Services
0%
Power
7%
Hydrocarbon
27%
E&A
4%
Heavy Engg
4%
Process
0%
Infra
74%
W
Page | 6
Valuation Summary
We assign 22x P/E to FY18E
core E&C business EPS to
arrive at our SOTP-based TP of
Rs 1,461/share
Basis of valuation
22x FY18E EPS
12x FY18E EPS; 20% Holdco Disc
20% Holdco Disc. to Market cap
0.8x invested equity
Peer Valuation
Company
MCap
(Rs bn)
CMP
(Rs)
Rating
TP
(Rs)
Crompton Greaves
Cummins India
Inox Wind
Kalpataru Power *
KEC International
L&T
Suzlon Energy
Techno Electric
Thermax
Triveni Turbine
Voltas
49
245
50
42
37
1,451
105
39
105
40
116
78
884
224
272
143
1,559
18
689
880
122
350
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
NEU
BUY
BUY
NEU
BUY
NEU
76
940
475
330
160
1,444
28
614
686
128
310
FY16E
37.9
32.6
11.0
20.9
19.2
30.7
-51.0
27.9
37.7
37.4
33.6
P/E (x)
FY17E
24.5
31.2
9.1
17.6
14.6
25.8
17.3
25.1
33.3
33.0
28.6
FY18E
18.4
28.2
7.1
15.6
13.5
22.1
8.7
20.8
32.1
28.6
24.4
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY16E FY17E FY18E
14.6
10.0
9.0
31.7
29.3
25.8
8.5
6.0
4.9
9.9
9.7
8.6
8.7
7.5
7.1
13.4
12.8
11.6
15.0
10.2
7.6
18.7
14.0
12.1
21.9
20.3
18.1
23.3
20.2
17.2
25.1
21.3
18.0
FY16E
2.9
24.8
27.9
9.2
13.5
11.1
2.4
12.2
12.4
41.3
15.3
ROE (%)
FY17E
4.2
22.5
25.8
10.0
15.5
12.2
-10.1
14.3
12.8
36.9
15.1
FY18E
5.5
23.6
26.7
10.3
14.7
13.0
-27.6
15.1
12.2
33.9
16.7
Page | 7
Income Statement
(Rs mn)
Net Revenues
Growth (%)
Balance Sheet
FY14
851,284
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
(Rs mn)
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
1,854
1,859
1,863
1,863
1,863
SOURCES OF FUNDS
14.3
8.1
11.6
10.0
10.5
Share Capital
Material Expenses
560,838
590,543
652,099
722,443
797,958
Reserves
375,262
407,232
438,054
477,409
523,279
Employee Expenses
104,998
120,034
139,515
147,087
158,976
377,116
409,091
439,917
479,272
525,142
SG&A Expenses
46,549
54,531
61,378
67,516
74,268
Minority Interest
31,792
49,986
67,688
69,757
72,033
Total Expenses
712,386
765,108
852,992
937,046 1,031,202
Long-term Debt
584,116
681,830
737,537
786,999
812,919
EBIDTA
275,529
294,007
303,690
138,898
154,937
173,325
191,771
215,608
Short-term Debt
254,006
254,206
EBIDTA %
16.3
16.8
16.9
17.0
17.3
Total Debt
838,123
EBIDTA Growth %
13.8
11.5
11.9
10.6
12.4
14,458
26,225
27,560
28,944
31,939
124,440
128,712
145,765
162,826
183,669
13,370
13,549
15,411
10,120
10,541
Deferred Taxes
3,375
(1,846)
(3,918)
(3,918)
(3,918)
Long-term Provisions &
13,984
18,466
7,883
8,710
9,621
Others
TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 1,264,389 1,411,733 1,524,636 1,634,827 1,719,487
62,981
70,089
80,310
85,985
93,052
PBT
74,830
72,172
80,867
86,961
101,158
Tax
26,284
22,836
25,487
28,697
33,382
Investments
Depreciation
EBIT
Other Income (Including EO
Items)
Interest
RPAT
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Net Block
322,950
347,381
432,816
452,123
479,016
CWIP
142,810
155,237
174,899
176,648
167,816
14,328
16,468
19,744
22,244
24,744
355,861
464,622
585,210
592,683
643,881
55,275
65,182
53,620
69,275
76,517
Debtors
ST Loans & Advances,
Others
Cash & equivalents
263,846
300,894
359,899
371,118
409,910
425,632
446,608
500,958
507,355
551,182
108,114
138,208
140,073
77,941
67,312
852,866
Creditors
Other Current Liabilities &
Provns
Total Current Liabilities
395,157
487,615
705,681
593,788
655,856
29,269
35,251
36,900
40,772
45,034
424,426
522,866
742,581
634,561
700,890
474
(1,689)
(4,475)
(2,043)
(2,248)
49,020
47,648
50,905
56,221
65,528
Inventories
3,553
3,477
3,581
45,467
44,171
47,324
56,221
65,528
(12.7)
(2.9)
7.1
18.8
16.6
49.1
47.5
50.8
60.4
70.3
EPS growth %
(42.0)
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
(3.1)
6.9
18.8
16.6
Minority Interest
EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax)
APAT
APAT growth %
Adjusted EPS (Rs)
Page | 8
Cash Flow
(Rs mn)
Key Ratios
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
74,830
72,172
80,867
86,961
101,158
PROFITABILITY %
(13,370)
(13,549)
(15,411)
(10,120)
(10,541)
Interest
31,380
28,507
30,412
32,458
Depreciation
14,458
26,225
27,560
28,944
(51,860)
41,382
11,392
(90,108)
(10,204)
RoE
Tax Paid
(26,284)
(22,836)
(25,487)
(28,697)
(33,382)
(103)
(7,906)
(12,783)
(2,043)
(2,248)
29,051
123,997
96,550
17,395
110,927
EFFICIENCY
(56,096) (127,919)
(50,000)
(50,000)
Tax rate %
Reported PBT
Non-operating & EO items
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
GPM
34.1
35.8
36.5
36.0
36.0
34,206
EBITDA margin
16.3
16.8
16.9
17.0
17.3
31,939
APAT margin
5.3
4.8
4.6
5.0
5.3
12.7
11.2
11.1
12.2
13.0
Core RoCE
7.7
7.2
7.5
7.4
7.7
RoCE
8.2
7.4
7.3
7.5
7.9
35.1
31.6
31.5
33.0
33.0
2.1
2.0
1.7
1.8
1.9
Capex
(61,637)
(32,587)
67,901
(31,369)
(32,605)
60,927
Investments
(2,086)
(2,140)
(3,276)
(2,500)
(2,500)
Inventory (days)
23.7
25.9
19.1
22.4
22.4
Non-operating Income
13,370
13,549
15,411
10,120
10,541
Debtors (days)
113.1
119.4
128.0
120.0
120.0
(44,687) (115,783)
(42,380)
(41,959)
Payables (days)
169.4
193.4
251.0
192.0
192.0
(32.6)
(48.2)
(103.9)
(49.6)
(49.6)
(50,353)
60,158
(4,265)
68,018
12,178
(25,734)
(31,380)
(28,507)
(30,412)
(32,458)
(34,206)
Debt/EBITDA (x)
6.0
6.0
5.8
5.6
5.2
(3,808)
35,129
6,238
(52,885)
987
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.0
2,880
3,886
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.0
Minority Interest
Dividend
(13,987)
(16,449)
(20,395)
(16,866)
(19,659)
EPS
49.1
47.5
50.8
60.4
70.3
17,672
(49,215)
21,097
(37,147)
(79,599)
CEPS
64.7
75.7
80.4
91.4
104.6
(3,631)
30,094
1,864
(62,131)
(10,630)
Dividend
14.3
16.3
18.2
16.5
19.2
108,114
138,208
140,073
77,941
67,312
406.9
440.1
472.3
514.5
563.8
31.8
32.8
30.7
25.8
22.1
3.8
3.5
3.3
3.0
2.8
15.7
14.5
13.4
12.8
11.6
EV/Revenues
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.0
OCF/EV (%)
1.3
5.5
4.2
0.7
4.4
FCF/EV (%)
(1.5)
3.0
(1.3)
(1.3)
2.4
FCFE/MCAP (%)
(0.3)
2.4
0.4
(3.6)
0.1
Closing cash
Book Value
VALUATION
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
Page | 9
RECOMMENDATION HISTORY
L&T
Date
1-Feb-16
26-May-16
5-Jul-16
1-Aug-16
TP
1,800
1,600
CMP
1,099
1,292
1,565
1,559
Reco
BUY
BUY
NEU
NEU
Target
1,222
1,422
1,444
1,461
1,400
1,200
Jul-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr-16
Mar-16
Feb-16
Jan-16
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
1,000
Rating Definitions
BUY
: Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period
NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period
SELL
: Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period
Page | 10
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