TESTING
C A S E S : Q U A L I T Y A S S O C I AT E S & E X I T
P O L L S U RV E Y
WHAT IS A HYPOTHESIS?
A hypothesis is a claim
(assertion) about a
population parameter:
population mean
Example: The mean monthly cell phone bill
in this city is = $42
population proportion
Example: The proportion of adults in this
city with cell phones is = 0.68
H 0 : 30
H 0 : X 30
H1: 50
Sample
20
If it is unlikely that you
would get a sample
mean of this value ...
= 50
If H0 is true
... When in fact this were
the population mean
X
... then you reject
the null hypothesis
that = 50.
Region of
Rejection
Region of
Non-Rejection
Region of
Rejection
Critical Values
Too Far Away From Mean of Sampling Distribution
LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE
AND THE REJECTION REGION
H0: = 50
H1: 50
Level of significance =
/2
/2
50
Critical values
Rejection Region
HYPOTHESIS TESTING
EXAMPLE
X
29.84 30
.16
2.0
0.8
0.08
n
100
6.
/2 = 0.025
Reject H0 if
ZSTAT < -1.96 or
ZSTAT > 1.96;
otherwise do
not reject H0
Reject H0
-Z/2 = -1.96
/2 = 0.025
Do not reject H0
Reject H0
+Z/2 = +1.96
ONE-TAIL TESTS
In many cases, the alternative hypothesis focuses on a particular
direction
H0: 30
H1: < 30
H0: 30
H1: > 30
LOWER-TAIL TESTS
H0: 30
H1: < 30
Reject H0
Do not reject H0
-Z or -t
Critical value
Z or t
X
UPPER-TAIL TESTS
Z or t
_
X
H0: 30
H1: > 30
Do not reject H0
Reject H0
Z or t
Critical value
EXAMPLE
FOR MEAN ( UNKNOWN)
A company claims that on the customer monthly bill on average is less
than $52. A manager thinks that the customer monthly cell phone bills
have increased, and now average over $52 per month. How will the
manager test this claim. (Assume a normal population)
= 0.10
Do not reject H0
1.318
Reject H0
TEST STATISTIC
Obtain sample and compute the test statistic
Suppose a sample is taken with the following results: n = 25, X = 53.1, and S
= 10
t STAT
X
53.1 52
0.55
S
10
n
25
EXAMPLE: DECISION
Reach a decision and interpret the result:
Reject H0
= 0.10
Do not reject H0
1.318
0
tSTAT = 0.55
Reject H0
Type II Error
Failure to reject a false null hypothesis
The probability of a Type II Error is
H0 True
H0 False
Do Not
Reject H0
No Error
Probability 1 -
Type II Error
Probability
Reject H0
Type I Error
Probability
No Error
Power 1 -
TYPE II ERROR
Suppose we do not reject H0: 52 when in fact the true
mean is = 50
52
Reject
H0: 52
Do not reject
H0 : 52
TYPE II ERROR
Suppose we do not reject H0: 52 when in fact the true
mean is = 50
Prob. of type II
error =
50
52
Reject
H0: 52
Do not reject
H0 : 52
Power of Test = 1-
Prob. of type II
error =
50
52
Reject
H0: 52
Do not reject
H0 : 52
6
52 1.645
50.766
n
64
cutoff X Z
(for H0 : 52)
So = P( x 50.766 ) if = 50
50
50.766
Reject
H0: 52
52
Do not reject
H0 : 52
50.766 50
P( X 50.766 | 50) P Z
P(Z 1.02) 1.0 0.8461 0.1539
6
64
Power
=1-
= 0.8461
The probability of
correctly rejecting a
false null hypothesis is
0.8641
Probability of
type II error:
= 0.1539
50
50.766
Reject
H0: 52
52
Do not reject
H0 : 52
ZSTAT
Unknown
Unknown
(t test)
The test statistic is:
t STAT
S
n
X
29.84 30
0.16
2.0
0.8
0.08
n
100
0
-2.0
2.0
TEST STATISTIC
Obtain sample and compute the test statistic
Suppose a sample is taken with the following results: n = 25, X = 53.1, and S
= 10
t STAT
X
53.1 52
0.55
S
10
n
25
Reject
H0
tSTAT = .55
EXAMPLE
The average cost of a hotel room in New
York is said to be $168 per night. To
determine if this is true, a random sample of
25 hotels is taken and resulted in average of
$172.50 and an S of $15.40. Test the
appropriate hypotheses at = 0.05.
(Assume the population distribution is normal)
H0: = 168
H1: 168
H0: = 168
H1: 168
= 0.05
n = 25, df = 25-1=24
is unknown, so
use a t statistic
/2=.025
/2=.025
Reject H0
-t 24,0.025
-2.0639
t STAT
Do not reject H0
Reject H0
1.46
t 24,0.025
2.0639
X
172.50 168
1.46
S
15.40
n
25
Critical Value:
t24,0.025 = 2.0639
$
$
Intermediate Calculations
Standard Error of the Mean
$
Degrees of Freedom
t test statistic
p-value >
So do not reject H0
168.00
0.05
25
172.50
15.40
3.08 =B8/SQRT(B6)
24 =B6-1
1.46 =(B7-B4)/B11
Two-Tail Test
Lower Critical Value
-2.0639 =-TINV(B5,B12)
Upper Critical Value
2.0639 =TINV(B5,B12)
p-value
0.157 =TDIST(ABS(B13),B12,2)
=IF(B18<B5, "Reject null hypothesis",
Do Not Reject Null Hypothesis
"Do not reject null hypothesis")
PROPORTIONS
Sample proportion in the category of interest is denoted by p
n
sample size
(1 )
n
ZSTAT
p
(1 )
n
Hypothesis
Tests for p
n 5
and
n(1-) 5
n < 5
or
n(1-) < 5
Beyond scope
Check:
n = (500)(.08) = 40
n(1-) = (500)(.92) = 460
H0: = 0.08
H1: 0.08
ZSTAT
= 0.05
n = 500, p = 0.05
Reject
.025
.025
-1.96
-2.47
1.96
(1 )
n
.05 .08
.08(1 .08)
500
2.47
Decision:
Reject H0 at = 0.05
Conclusion:
There is sufficient
evidence to reject the
companys claim of 8%
response rate.