I.
INTRODUCTION
Reliability engineering is a tool used to define the probability that a unit component or system will perform its
intended function uninterruptedly, under a specified operational working condition over a given period of time.
According to Shakuntla et al reliability analysis helps us toobtain the necessary information about the control of
various parameters. According to (Barringer and Barringer, 1997), reliability plays an important role in the
selection of equipment for lowest long term cost of ownership.The study ofthe reliability of various units in
production industry will yield a high level of machine performance with consistency, andit is important to study
the variation of reliability with respect to time,(Deepika and Kuldeep, 2009).With a growing competitive
market, there is the need to cut down cost of production, (Khan and Darrab, 2010), improve productivity and
delivery performance of manufacturing systems which are important to the industries, (Hani, 2012). (Okpala and
Kotingo, 2007)as well describe the reliability evaluation of a product or processto include a number of different
analysis, depending on the phase of the product life cycle. (Damilare and Olasunkanmi, 2010) described the
failure of an item entering a given age and time interval as the conditional probability, while the failure
increases with time. Building a reputation on reliability takes a longtime, and only a short while for unreliability
(Okpala and Kotingo, 2007). According to (Igor, 2004), the price for unreliability is very high, and reliability is
the cure. According to(OConnor and Kleyner, 2012), unreliability is so high a prize to be paid by any industry,
and the survival of any industry is reliability.
The reliability of mechanical components is usually estimation from test or experience by mean time to failure
(MTTF) for each machine. Several works exist showing the relationship between machine reliability and
production level, and that productivity is tied to machine system reliability. Machine reliability is assessed by
three phases of failure, the early life phase, useful life phase and the wear out phase. The application of
reliability engineering analysis is a viable tool to machine satisfactionand the constant practice of machine
reliability will always sustain a company with its products. Hence, there is need for machine reliability, which is
the live wire for the sustenance of every business. This research dwells on identifyingthe three stages of failure
and development of model for predicting the likely failure times of the various machine components under
study.
www.theijes.com
The IJES
Page 1
METHODOLOGY
Data Collection
Reliability data was collected from the maintenance report books of work done procedures in a cement
production industry in south-south zone of Nigeria. The data covers a period of six years from 2008 to 2014,
which consist of themachine down-time and the number of failures for two identical machines code named BE
machine 01 and BE machine 02. The BE machine 01 and 02 hasfourteen components namely;segment wheel
drive (SWD), chain, shackle, shaft, twin chute, bearing, heavy duty gear box (HDGB), electric motor, wheel,
flange set, counter weight, turbo and hub.Thesecomponents are arranged in series, thatis, the failure of one
means the failure of the entire machine as production would stop.
Procedure
The data obtained from the maintenance report books of work done procedures of the cement production
industrywere used for evaluating the total down time and the failure rates of the machines over six years. Also,
through the Weibull model the data were subjected to life testing with aresultant modelling of the failure rate for
the machines.
Total Down-Time
The total down-time for the machines over the study period of six yearswas evaluated. This was determined by
summing up the monthly downtimes of all eighteen components of both machines over the study period of six
years(2008 2014)and presented in tables 1 and 2.
Table 1: Total Down-Time of machine BE 01
Component
SWD
Chain
Shackle
Shaft
Twin Chute
Bearing
HDGB
Electric Motor
Wheel
Flange Set
Counter Weight
Turbo
Bucket
Hub
DT2009
(min)
0
134
164
0
0
47
0
296
0
345
0
163
611
0
DT2010
(min)
0
0
385
0
0
102
0
311
0
509
0
0
648
0
DT2011
(min)
0
107
291
0
0
0
0
205
145
502
0
0
696
0
DT2012
(min)
0
133
398
0
0
105
0
368
188
403
0
0
647
0
DT2013
(min)
0
80
175
0
0
0
0
188
0
198
0
0
351
0
DT2014
(min)
0
290
96
0
0
230
0
0
79
255
0
268
659
0
TOTAL
TDT
(min)
0
744
1509
0
0
484
0
1368
412
2212
0
431
3612
0
10772
III.
DT2009
(min)
0
217
205
73
0
47
0
53
0
444
0
85
488
0
DT2010
(min)
0
177
140
0
0
0
0
174
28
420
0
231
563
0
DT2011
(min)
0
136
168
0
0
212
0
247
0
269
0
0
510
0
DT2012
(min)
201
160
317
0
0
209
0
234
124
321
0
205
520
0
DT2013
(min)
0
179
262
186
0
83
0
140
16
406
0
199
434
0
DT2014
(min)
0
345
234
0
0
257
0
0
0
297
0
17
1079
0
TOTAL
TDT
(min)
201
1214
1326
259
0
808
0
848
168
2157
0
737
3594
0
11312
The data obtained from the maintenance report books of work done procedures in a cement production
industrywere used to determine the failure frequency variation with time. This was done by dividing the
machine cumulative number of failures by the cumulative time of use of machine in hours to obtain tables 3 and
4 which were used in plotting the failure rate graphs for the machines in figures 1 and 2.
www.theijes.com
The IJES
Page 2
2009
8760
88
2010
17520
179
2011
26280
274
2012
35064
399
2013
43824
466
2014
52584
559
10.05
16
10.22
32
10.43
48
11.38
68
10.63
79
10.63
94
1.83
9
1.83
19
1.83
29
1.94
42
1.80
55
1.79
64
1.03
1.08
1.10
1.20
1.26
1.22
2009
8760
133
2010
17520
251
2011
26280
379
2012
35064
598
2013
43824
793
2014
52584
923
15.83
20
14.32
42
14.42
62
17.05
94
18.10
124
17.55
144
2.28
13
2.40
25
2.36
38
2.68
60
2.82
82
2.74
94
1.48
1.43
1.46
1.71
1.87
1.79
Figure 1: Graph of Failure Rate over Time of machine BE 01 and Critical Components
Figure 2: Graph of Failure Rate over Time of machine BE 01 and Critical Components
www.theijes.com
The IJES
Page 3
According to (OConnor and kleyner, 2012), it is useful in engineering to determine which distribution that best
fits a set of data and to derive estimates of the distribution parameters.The Weibull model was used as the
basisfor the modelling of the failure rate. (Lyonnet, 1991) stated that the Weibull model is the most suitable
when carrying out reliability analysis for mechanical components and (OConnor and kleyner, 2012) also stated
that the Weibull probability data analysis is the most utilized technique for processing and interpretation of life
data.
According to (OConnor, 1991), the Weibull failure rate function is given by
Where:
= scale parameter,
= the shape parameter, also known as the Weibull slope.
t = variable time.
The failure density function according to
(Lyonnet, 1991), is given as
and the reliability function is given as
the Weibull distribution is:
which transforms to
Therefore, using the recommended estimator by(Lyonnet, 1991) for the behavior of part failure, the values of
the various parameters can be estimated. Thus, F(t) can be obtained by the given equation below.
Where n= sample times = 6, which corresponds to the number of years of study. i= the year from 1- 6
Therefore, the first year: i= 1, and n = 6.
www.theijes.com
The IJES
Page 4
V.
To determine the values of and for machinesBE 01, the methods of least squares is used with the established
linear relation Y = x + ln. The least square estimation applies to the n observation pairs of (xiyi), where i= 1,
2, 3,, n which leads to the estimates.
A regression analysis is done and the formulation of tables 5 and 6 for the machines with the transformed linear
function.
Where xi = ln F(t), and yi = ln ti
With the corresponding values forF(t), ti and yi regression analysis table was evaluated for BE 01 machine.
Table 5: Regression Analysis for machine BE 01
F(t)
0.08
0.25
0.42
0.58
0.75
0.92
ti
8730
17439
26163
34914
43636
52355
F(t)
0.08
0.25
0.42
0.58
0.75
0.92
ti
8733
17464
26198
34944
43673
52395
xi
9.08
9.77
10.17
10.46
10.69
10.87
xi=61.04
yi
-2.53
-1.39
-0.87
-0.55
-0.29
-0.08
yi=-5.71
xiyi
-22.97
-13.58
-8.85
-5.75
-3.1
-0.87
xiyi=-55.12
X2
82.45
95.45
103.43
109.41
114.28
118.16
X2=623.18
Y2
6.4
1.93
0.76
0.3
0.08
0.0064
Y2=9.48
yi
-2.53
-1.39
-0.87
-0.55
-0.29
-0.08
yi=-5.71
xiyi
-22.97
-13.58
-8.85
-5.75
-3.1
-0.87
xiyi=-55.12
X2
82.45
95.45
103.43
109.41
114.28
118.16
X2=623.18
Y2
6.4
1.93
0.76
0.3
0.08
0.0064
Y2=9.48
Correlation is determined to ascertain the suitability of linear regression for this data.
According to (Stevenson 1991).
From the above value, the independent variable is a good predictor of the dependent variable, therefore
regression is very suitable.
The slope
Y intercept, ln is given by
www.theijes.com
The IJES
Page 5
Then for BE 01
Where
VI.
DISCUSSION OF RESULTS
VII.
This study looked at reliability engineering and shows how to predict reliability and demonstrate it with test and
field data. Model was also developed with which machine failure in the cement industry in Nigeria could be
predicted. Two components were identified as been critical for the machine operation. Thesaddle set and
www.theijes.com
The IJES
Page 6
REFERENCES
[1]. Shakuntlaa, Sanjay, K., Lala, A. K., Bhatiaa, S.S., and Jai Singhc, [2011], Availability Analysis of Polytube Industry When Two SubSystem Are Simultaneous Fail. Bangladesh Journal of Scientific and Industrial Research. 46(4), 475-480.
[2]. Barringer, H.P., Barringer, P.E. & Associates, Inc., [1997], Life Cycle Cost & Reliability for Process Equipment. Conference &
Exhibition, Houston, Texas. PennWell Publishing.
[3]. Deepika, G. and Kuldeep, K., [2009], Reliability Analysis of Pharmaceutical Plant Using Mat lab-Tool.International Journal of
Electronics Engineering Research Volume 1 Number 2 (2009) pp. 127133. Research India Publications.
[4]. Khan, M.R.R. and Darrab, I.A., [2010], Development of analytical relation between maintenance, quality and productivity, Journal of
Quality in Maintenance Engineering, 16.
[5]. Hani Shafeek [2012], Maintenance Practices in Cement Industry. Asian Transactions on Engineering Volume 01 Issue 06
[6]. Okpala, A. N. and Kotingo, K, 2007 Application of Reliability Analysis for Predicting Failures in Glass Industry Global Journal of
Engineering Research vol. 6. No. 2
[7]. Damilare T. O. and Olasunkanmi O. A, [2010], Development of Equipment Maintenance Strategy for Critical Equipment. Pacific
Journal of Science and Technology. 11(1)
[8]. Igor B. [2004], Reliability Theory and Practice, Courier Dover Publication, Minneola, NY.
[9]. Lyonnet, P., [1991], Tools of Total Quality, An Introduction to statistical Process Control. Chapman and Hall, London.
[10]. OConnor,P. D. T. and Kleyner, A., [2012], Practical Reliability Engineering,John Wiley and Sons,Chichester, UK, 5th edition,
[11]. O'Connor,P. D. T. [1991],Practical Reliability Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, UK, 3rd edition,
[12]. Stevenson, W.J., [1991], Production Operational Management. 6thedition
www.theijes.com
The IJES
Page 7