The United States,

Japan, and China

Setting the Course

Neil E. Silver

A Council on Foreign Relations Paper

The Council on Foreign Relations, Inc., a nonprofit, nonpartisan national organization
founded in 1921, is dedicated to promoting understanding of international affairs through
the free and civil exchange of ideas. The Council’s members are dedicated to the belief
that America’s peace and prosperity are firmly linked to that of the world. From this
flows the mission of the Council: to foster America’s understanding of other nations—
their peoples, cultures, histories, hopes, quarrels, and ambitions—and thus to serve our
nation through study and debate, private and public.
THE COUNCIL TAKES NO INSTITUTIONAL POSITION ON POLICY
ISSUES AND HAS NO AFFILIATION WITH THE U.S. GOVERNMENT. ALL
STATEMENTS OF FACT AND EXPRESSIONS OF OPINION CONTAINED
IN ALL ITS PUBLICATIONS ARE THE SOLE RESPONSIBILITY OF THE
AUTHOR OR AUTHORS.
From time to time books, monographs, reports, and papers written by members of the
Council’s research staff or others are published as a ‘‘Council on Foreign Relations Publica-
tion.’’ Any work bearing that designation is, in the judgment of the Committee on
Studies of the Council’s Board of Directors, a responsible treatment of a significant
international topic.
Council on Foreign Relations books and reports are distributed by Brookings Institution
Press (1-800-275-1447). For further information about the Council or this report, please
write the Council on Foreign Relations, 58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10021, or
call the Director of Communications at (212) 434-9400. Visit our website at www.cfr.org.
Copyright © 2000 by the Council on Foreign Relations威, Inc.
All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America.
This book may not be reproduced in whole or in part, in any form (beyond that copying
permitted by Sections 107 and 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law and excerpts by reviewers
for the public press), without written permission from the publisher. For information,
write the Publications Office, Council on Foreign Relations, 58 East 68th Street, New
York, NY 10021.
 CONTENTS

Foreword—Lawrence J. Korb v
Acknowledgments vii
Executive Summary 1

Uncertain New Directions 4

Chinese-Japanese Dynamics: Post–World War II 11

America’s Strategic and Tactical Choices 37

Promoting Security 41
Promoting Dialogue 46
The Results of Dialogue: Modest to Date 48
Challenges in the Next Five Years 57
Recommendations 59
 FOREWORD

During the twentieth century, as the United States grew into a

world power, Americans confronted two major powers in Asia:
China and Japan. Of course there were and are other crucial
factors in Asia, from the expansionist former Soviet Union to
the unpredictable North Korea. But in this century, Americans
struggled most of all to get their China and Japan policies right.
There is no reason to believe that Chinese and Japanese issues
will be less central to American policy in the 21st century.
The high costs of policy failure, including the scores of thou-
sands of Americans killed and wounded in the Pacific theater
during World War II and later in Korea and Indochina, and the
fear of only a decade ago that Japan might overtake America
economically focused Americans on ‘‘threats,’’ real and imaginary,
coming from Japan and China. While perhaps not widely appreci-
ated by Americans, the perceptions and misperceptions held by
Chinese and Japanese about each other are as complicated as those
that have driven American policy toward those two countries.
As noted by Neil Silver, the United States never had good
relations simultaneously with China and Japan during the last
century (except for a relatively brief period in the latter part
of the Cold War). American foreign policy practitioners and
analysts argue that relations among the three countries should
not be pursued as a zero-sum game. Yet, as Silver points out,
‘‘American(s) . . . have typically framed relations with China
and Japan separately, not in parallel.’’ Besides casting critical
light on the recent trilateral dynamics among the three nations,
Silver offers a number of practical recommendations for how
America can best advance its interests with both China and
Japan.
Lawrence J. Korb
Maurice R. Greenberg Chair, Director of Studies
Council on Foreign Relations

[v]
 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The author wrote this monograph while on sabbatical as the

State Department Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations
in New York.
The author owes a deep debt of gratitude to members of
the Council on Foreign Relations Roundtable on U.S.-Japan-
China Relations, which met in early 1999. Special thanks go
to Donald Zagoria, chair of the three roundtable sessions,
and to Patrick Cronin, Bates Gill, Bonnie Glaser, Michael
Mochizuki, James Przystup, and Ronald Montaperto, all of
whom unstintingly shared their research and insights at the
roundtable, thus contributing immeasurably to the findings in
this monograph. Several individuals graciously agreed to read
and comment on various drafts, including Edward Fogarty,
Bates Gill, Bonnie Glaser, Michael Green, Herbert Levin,
Winston Lord, Benjamin Self, Robert Manning, and Ezra
Vogel. Their insights and suggestions were extremely helpful.
While perhaps it should go without saying, any sins of commis-
sion or omission, of course, rest solely with the author.
Special thanks go to a number of Council staff members,
including Alicia Siebenaler, whose cheerful advice and effective
support at every stage of this project, from its initial research,
to arranging and reporting on the three roundtables, through
editing of various drafts, and on to publication, made this
monograph possible; Connie Stagnaro and other members of
the Council library staff for their resourceful support; and Patri-
cia Dorff, for her patience and wise counsel throughout the
publishing process.
Finally, the views and opinions expressed are solely the
author’s and do not necessarily represent those of the U.S.
Department of State.

[vii]