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Daily Market Reflection

19th October 2016


Market Outlook

USDINR

The Rupee appreciated 12 paise to 66.76 against the US dollar


today, propped up by fresh selling of the American currency by
exporters and banks amid a higher opening in the domestic stock
market. Weakness in the dollar against other currencies overseas
on unexpected fall in a US manufacturing index made the rupee
stronger.
The UK consumer prices accelerated on yearly basis in September,
coming in at 1% versus Augusts +0.6% and outpaced forecasts of
a 0.8% reading, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed on
Tuesday. The rate in September 2016 was the highest since Nov
2014.
Fundamental News
Dollar retreat supports Asia FX; yuan turns weaker.
UK CPI rises above expectations in September, highest in 2
yrs.
United Kingdom Retail Price Index (MoM) above forecasts
(0.1%) in September: Actual (0.2%).
United Kingdom Retail Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts
(2%) in September.
Currency Future
Currency
Date
Date
% Chg

17-10-16

18-10-16

USDINR

66.9525

66.7900

-0.24%

EURINR

73.6575

73.5625

-0.13%

GBPINR

81.3950

82.0500

+0.80%

JPYINR

64.3175

64.2475

-0.11%

Event Calendar (19th October 2016)


Time
Currency Event

Forecast

Previou
s

2:00 pm

GBP

Average Earnings Index


3m/y

2.3%

2.3%

2:00 pm

GBP

Claimant Count Change

3.4K

2.4K

2:00 pm

GBP

Unemployment Rate

4.9%

4.9%

6:00 pm

USD

Building Permits

1.17M

1.14M

6:00 pm

USD

Housing Starts

1.18M

1.14M

10:30 pm

GBP

MPC Member Haldane


Speaks

Reference Rate
Currency Date
17-10-16
USDINR
66.7779
EURINR
73.3689
GBPINR
81.3088
JPYINR
64.1200

Date
18-10-16
66.7268
73.5463
81.7136
64.1400

%
Change
-0.07%
+0.24%
+0.49%
+0.03%

Currencies vs $
Currency
Close
(5:00p
m)
Rupee
66.6962

Prev
Close

%
Chg

66.8900

Dollar Index

97.6300

97.8600

Euro

1.1019

1.1021

0.28%
0.23%
0.01%

Global Commodities
Commodit Close
Prev.Clos % Chg
y
e
Gold
1261.1 1258.68
+0.19%
5
Silver
17.62
17.59
+0.17%
Crude
50.78
50.64
+0.27%
Copper
2.1038 2.1033
+0.02%
OUR PREVIOUS CALLS UPDATE
Intraday super star
Date Currenc Entry
y
18/10 EURINR 73.580
0
Trifid special
Date Currenc Entry
y
17/1 GBPINR 81.650
0
0

Exit

P/L

73.530
0

1000

Exit

P/L

81.350
0

12000

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Overview
USDINR

EURINR

USDINR sustained on lower side after gap down opening


and closed in red territory.

EURINR dragged gradually on lower side throughout the


session after it found resistance at higher levels.

If the counter continues to slide down then 66.6000 is


seen as key support level and 67.1000 is still expected to
act as important resistance for it.

The pair is expected to continue the weak trend and


selling pressure may increase if it breaches the support
of 73.4000 while 73.7500 is seen as immediate
resistance.

R1
66.9000

R1

R2

S1

S2

73.8000

74.0000

73.4000

73.2000

R2
67.0000

S1
66.6000

S2
66.5000

GBPINR

JPYINR

GBPINR gained certain momentum after several sessions


of bearishness and settled in green.

JPYINR in the last session faced stiff resistance on


higher side and dropped to close on lower note.

On further correction on higher side, 82.2000-82.6000


may act as resistance range while on lower side, 81.3500
is still acting as key support for the pair.

Negative breakouts can occur in the counter if it


surpasses the strong support of 64.0000 while 100 day
EMA of 64.8100 will continue to act as crucial resistance
on daily chart.

R1
82.2000

R1
64.4000

R2
82.4000

S1
82.0000

S2
81.8000

R2
64.6000

S1
64.2000

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S2
64.0000

Intraday Super Star


(Premium Section)

EURINR continue to sustain below the major support level as seen on daily chart above and hence indicates that selling
pressure may continue if it sustains below the mentioned level.
SELL BELOW 73.5300 TARGETS 73.4100/73.2900 SL 73.7300.

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Trifid Special
(Premium Section)

JPYINR has been hovering around the same range since last few sessions and constant resistance is seen around 100
day EMA on daily chart. Hence, sell on highs is expected in this currency pair.
SELL IN RANGE OF 64.2500-64.1500 TARGET 63.9000 SL 64.6500.

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