m

Statistical

Pkuhocis

for

tne

J.nalysismid ?rediction

of Gas and.Cil Reserves in lhc-~reP.reas

G. 2.McLaughlin

Section I

STATISTICAL METHODS FOR THE ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION

OF GAS AND OIL RESERVES T}:MATURE AREAS

-t
t

STATISTICAL METHODS FOR THE ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION

OF GAS AND OIL RESERVES IN MATURE AREAS
1.0

Introduction:
In this paper we are concerned with estimating the
end results of patterns @f exploration activity in a region
having a sufficiently long history of discoveries of oil and
gas, so that it can be confidently asserted that the peak of
the discovery process has occurred, although the process of
discovery and appreciation of discoveries is far from complete,

The patterns of activity are represented by time

series data on cumulative production of natural gas and oil

in the Province of Alberta.

It is assumed that the parti-

cular time series analyzed are realizations of stationary

st9cllasticprocesses, or alternatively, an element out of a
set of possible realizatiorison which a probability measure
is defined.
We would like to ascertain what the results of the
patterns of exploratory activity will be if the process continues unchanged.

It should be obvious (and studies we have

made confirm) that there is no one-to-one relationship between

cumulative drilling data and time series data.

Forecasts based

upon patterns of activity do not necessarily estimate what can

be discovered and exploited, but rather what will be found if
the patterrisof activity continue unchanged.
Besides indicating the end results of present patterns of activity, studies such as these can show when present
patterns are becoming increasingly unprofitable.

-2,
In this present study, we are analyzing patterns
of activity which are related to certain specific sedimentary
deposits, and it is shown that the learning process connected
with these sedimentary deposits is drawing to a close.

From

this it follows that unless a new learning process connected

with a different sedimentary region is initiated, the expected
recoverable reserves will be approximately as forecast.

How-

ever, analysis of the sedimentary structure of Alberta suggests

that deeper drilling in the Foothills area of western Alberta
~
1.1

be an in~lovativemove,

The Process of Discovery:

It is assumed that the process of discovery is associated with a typical learning process, in which one starts
with some initial skills and knowledge and that further learning, at some point in time, is inversely proportional to the
difficulty ofacquiring further knowledge.

Thus we may say in

this approach that the force of past learning propels one to

acquire new learning while being opposed by inertia due to
the difficulty of acquiring further knowledge.

There exists

in Physics an analogue to this approach in Newtonts Second Law

of Motion which states that an object accelerates proportional
to the force applied and inversely proportional to the mass of
the object.
This approach will be discussed in detail in the
section on mathematical formulation where a set of differential
equations is constructed from the hypotheses the solutions of

.O

-3which are used to construct a mathematical formulation of the

learning process, believed to be new.

By

appropriate trans-

formations, this process can be shown to have a functional

form which is related to the Gompertz distribution function,
This function may be interpreted as the probability of making
a correct decision as to the presence of oil or gas, given
physical data, as a function of time.

Alternatively, it

may

be interpreted as the distribution function of discoveries

over time.
Appendix.

A discussion of the approach is contained in the

We assume, finally, that cumulative discoveries

are related to cumulative learning and we estimate the parameters involved from the discovery process itself using rlorllinear least squares techniques.
A further feature of the forecasts is an associated
set of confidence bands which are set using a mild non-parametric technique due to Gauss.

To use this technique we have ob-

tained the variance of the for~cast function.

sion of these

~Jatters

tical formulation.

Further discus-

is ccntained in the section on mathemaw

Forecasts of Natural Gas and Oil Reserves in Alberta:

With respect to natural gas reserves our approach
indicates approximately 80 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of initial
established marketable gas reserves.

This figure includes gas

that has already been withdrawn from the ground.

Similarly, the initial recoverable crude oil reserves
are estimated to be approximately 17 billion barrels (bbls).
These figures ray be compared with those of the Alberta Energy

\
,.

-4Resources Conservation Board Gf 100 tcf and 20 bbl.(1)

Since

the techniques used to estimate oil reserves are the same as

those used to estimate natural gas reserves, the theory will
be illustrated by application to the estimation of natural gas
reserves so that a shorter presentation may be effected.

1.3 The Province of Alberta:

The Province of Alberta is located between longitudes

llOOW to 120W and latitudes 4gON to 60N and contains

225,285 square miles of territory.

The importance to Canada

of Albertas oil and gas reserves is due to the fact that,

presently, 90+ percent of Canadas natural gas production and

80 percent of Canadas oil production comes from Alberta.

In a submission made to the Royal Commission on
Canadats Economic Prospects, by the Alberta Oil and Gas Conservation Board, in October, 1955, the Board staff estimated
that there existed within the Alberta portion of the Western
Canada Sedimentary Basin a maximum area of 213,500 square
miles of land favorable for the prospecting of crude petroleum
and natural gas.

This figure included all of the area covered

by sediments to a depth in excess of 1000 feet but did not include the mountain ranges.

The volume of sediment occurring

between the base of the glacial drift and the top of the Precambrian granite over the available acreage of sediments underlying the plains area of Alberta has been calculated as,
approximately, 225,000 cubic miles.

by assigning a uniform

thickness of 20,000 feet to the entire foothills belt(in

.,*

-5Western Alberta) an additional 45,000 cubic miles of effectivebasin sediments may be calculated to exist in Alberta.(2)
In this domain have been drilled (as of December 31,
1970) 35$265 (3) exploratory outpost and development wells.
Of this figure, the total number of exploratory wells drilled
as of December 31, 1971 were 12,758, (4)
1.4

Discussion:
The subject with which we are dealing may be cha~acterized as trend analysis and the object is that of forecasting

the future from past data.

Since it is clear that

various functicns may be employed to fit a given set of points,

often with similar and small residual error, one deduces that
a rationale for choosing forecast functions is required which
.
is in accord with physical reality and may be considered to
~~explainft

the

process involved.

The subject of forecasting of expected oil and gas

reserves has been discussed by various authors, (5), (6), (7),
(8), (9) using one of two main approaches.

The first is that

of time series analysis, and the second is based upon cumulative drilling.

To obtain a complete picture both techniques

should be employed, the first because it concentrates more on

the patterns of human activity as a function of time, and the
second because it permits time-independent forecasts.

Although,

of the two app~oaches, the second is to be somewhat preferred,

the former has definite advantages and uses among which are:
1.

the time sequence of discoveries and their appreciation

.,.

may be the items of interest.

For example, the time at

which a certain cumulative amount of reserves may be

expected to be available is often desired for decislonmaking purposes.
2.

a check on the p.>sslbilltyof inefficient patterns may

be made.

3. comparisons of ultimate reserves using different techniques may be made,

4.

data on cumulative drilling may be unavziilableor incomplete or not as extensive.

In the case of Alberta, cumulative drilling data

is not as extensive nor available to the same extent as time

ser?.esdata,

1.5 *Mathematical korrnulation:

It is assumed that the process of discovery is a
typical learning process such as that of learning to operate
a machines learning to recognize signals in noise, etc.
Hence it is.assumed that discoveries are proportional to
learning, or alternatively, the more you learn the more you
earn. That is,
Y(t) = klL(t)
where:

(1)

(a) Y(t) is the cumulative discovery to time t

(b) L(t) is the cumulative learning to time t.
It is assumed that L(0) > 0, in that there always

exists some knowledge or.skill which can.be applied ab initio.

* See Figure 1 for an example of a typical learning curve.

*.

-7-

Further, it is assumed that the rate of learning

is ~roportional to the learning which has already occurred
concerning a task and inversely proportional to the difficulty
of further learning.
Symbolically we may write this as
1

.~=-

L(t)*#(t)

dt

(z)

where a(t)s to be defined below~ iS a measure of the difficulty

of acquiring further knowledge.
The solution of equation (2) is given by
k2fj &
L(t) = c2e

(3)

dt

we note thata(t)-l,may be c~nsfdered as a measure of he

effectiveness of the learning that has already been acquired
since a(t)

is

a measure

of tae difficulty of acquiring further

knowledge.
We set
.
da(t)
1
dt
a(t)

k3>

and on solution we have

kt
a(t) = c e 3

(4)

(5)

Substituting equations (1) and (5) into equation (3) we

ffseefi6ure 2 which shows the graph of I/a(t), vesus t~ based
upon Alberta data. since I/a(t)$ is a negative exponential,
a(t) is a positive exponential.

** 8

-8have
2
~j~e
Y(t)= k1c2e3

-k ~

or

-k3t
dt

(6)

~e-k3t,

r
?3
= lc2e

(7)

Let us make the following substitutions in equation (7):

(a)
(b)

(c)

1C2 = K
-k2

= lnA
c3k3

8(a)

-k3=

8(c)

lnB

8(b)

Hence, we may rewrite (7) as

Bt
Y(t) = KA

(9)

1.6 Interpretation of Constants:

(a)

Since the constants A and B are constrained to be in the

range [0,1], i.e. O<A<l, and O<B<I, from examination of
equation 9 and previous equations we deduce that K is
the ultimate resource obtainable (out of an original
amount a of oil or gas in place) as a result of the
observed pattern of activity.

(b) Bt is interpreted as a measure of the effectiveness of

the knowledge ex~.stentat time t and is deduced to be
proportional to the amount remaining, at time t, of an
original amount & of 011 or gas in a given region.

Note

-9that Bt decreases with time.

This is equivalent to the

difficulty of discovery increasing with time.

More specifically, let 6 be the amount of gas
originally in place at the start of the discovery
process.

If we assume an average fraction, is of re-

maining reserves to be found in each unit time interval,

the],we have the following process:
.

Amount D~scover12d
in Time Period

61

&(l-i)

Is(l-i)l

6 (i-i)2

..*

b**

.,*
t

rs(l-l)t

d(l-l)t-l*i

(c)

Time Period

Amount Remaining

The constant A

may

be readl.lyinterpreted from equation

(9) by setting K=l and t=O.

Then, comparing this re-

sult with equation 1 we see that A is to be interpreted

as a measure of the learning and skills which were brought
to the discovery process at the time of initial discovery.

1.7 Error Analysis:

Let yi(tj) be the magnitude of the estimate made in
the tj h year, of a -discovery made in year ti, ti : tj.
Then
Y(tj) =

$
Yi(tj:ls$ = 1,2,..., T

(lo)

I=ti
For subsequent ease of notaticm we now drop the subscript j
and write t = t.
$

***

10

-1oWe may rewrite equation 9 In logarithmic form as

lnY(t) = in K + BtlnA

(11)

However, we cannot expect to know the values of the parameters

other than through estimates.

Hence, we rewrite equation(n)

as
lni?(t)= lnK + BtlnA + E(t)

(12)

We assume that the elements of the set of residual errors {c(t)}

are independent, zero mean having common variance a 2.
E
For subsequent notational ease we rewrite equation
(12) as
A
x@

n
Z bigi(t) + c(t)
i=l

(13)

the correspondence being made by the following substitutions:

iG(t)

bl
b2

(14)

in;(t)

= lnK
= lnA

gl(t)

(16)

(17)

p+(t) = Bt
In general, let

G =

(18)
e+)

II
132(t)
.

(19)

I@)

11

-11and

:1
bl

b2
.
.

bon

(20)

Letting ~ be an unbiased estimate of b,

. it may be shown that
(11),

(12),
=
E(; -xb)(;
~ - b)t
~

(21)

UG2X
*

and that
2

%G(t)
where

;Ez

(22)

GZG
.-..,

T
;2

[(x(t) - ;P(t)]
t=tl
ql- n
z

(23)

and where
x(t) = lnY(t)

(24)

Hence, using the result of equation (22) with equation (12),

confidence bounds for the forecast can be obtained from the
expression
t
In;(t) = lnK + B lnA ~ %G(t)

(25)

where the value h is determined by the solution of the equation

(26)
The value h is derived from Gauss inequality,
Pr{lt-

Ml}>h~~~h

4 *2

(27)

.* 12

- 12r= ~z + (p - m)2

wnere

(28)

is the second moment about the mode of a (animodal) density

functicn.
Obviously ifp=m

we have a much sharper version of

the Tchebycheff inequality, and thus we assume this to be

true.
The equations for the 100a percent confidence limits
are given by
&
Y(t) = KABU*exp{~hu
xG(t) }

(29)

where the parameters K, A ;md B have been estimated by nonlinear least squares techniques.

In obtaining the variance

of lnY(t) as given by equation (12), a non linear least squares

estimate of B was employed, after sensitivity anaiysis was
employed which indicated that the parameter B was very stable
for the data employed.
The ilypothesisof independence of residual errors
was not rejected for any series analyzed at significance levels
betweer,5% and 1%.

1.8

Analysis of the Data:

The data employed in the analysis are given in the
three tables entiiled ~AlbertaInitial Established Marketable
Gas Reserves for the years 1968, 1969 and 1970.
Marketable gas reserves are those which are economic
to exploit,

The word inltlal means original in place without

.,,

13

-13regard to withdrawals or sales.

beyond reasonable doubt.

The word estimated means

It will be noticed from this last

sentence that there is a random element involved in reserves

determination.

As initial discoveries are made estimates of

reserves are made which are revised as outpost wells are

drilled which ultimately deliniate theextent of the find.
Careful review of the data in these tables reveals the patterns of discoveries and revisions which start being reported
in systematic fashion in 1951.
However, additional data covering the,years 1945
through 1955 are contained in a 1955 report of the Alberta Oil
and Gas Conservation Board as well as unpublished data from
that Board from which further analysis was made.

A suitable

alternative method exists to obtain the data on gas reserves

prior to 1951.
It must be observed that as more information is
obtained aboht gas discoveries the tendency is for estimates
to increase, or in the terminology of the reservoir engineer,
to appreciate!~. Estimates of discoveries made twenty years
ago are generally considered to be fully appreciated.
With respect to appreciation of reserves the practice of the Alberta Oil and Gas Conservation Board may be summarized as follows, ... normal appreciation factors are applied... to natural gas pools grouped by year of discovery.
Currently a discovery year has been assigned only for pools
with reserves in excess of 10 bihlion cubic feet,

This cat-

egory embraces some 88 percent of the Province~s initial gas

.0.

14

\
.,

-14reserves.

The initial reserves of minor pools not grouped by

discovery year have been arbitrarily attributed to discovery

years in proportion to the reserve distribution of pdols assigned a discovery year.(1)
Hence, in order to estimate total reserves, including
those contained in pools having less than 10 billion cubic feet,*
we must divide 0.88 into the figure of 40,898 B.C.F. obtained
from the last row and column of the 1970 table of Alberta Initial Established Marketable Gas Reserves obtaining the value
46,475 B.C.F.
This figure represents the Alberta Oil and Gas Conservation Boards estimate of the total natural gas discovered
in areas otherwise within economic reacn including those pools
having less than 10 B.C.F.
To ascertain the amount of - by now fully appreciated natural gas discovered in 1950 and prior years in Alberta, we
note that the 1970 Alberta Oil and Gas Conservation Board repor
(3) provides a.figure of 56,549 B.C.F. (Table V-10) which represents the total initial established marketable gas reserves in
Alberta up through December 31st, 1970 i.ncludinqpools containing
leas than 10 B.C.F.
Hence, the amount of natural gas discovered in years
1950 and prior in Alberta is given by the difference (56,549 46,475) B.C.F. = 10,074 B.C.F.
This figure represents a base figure or platform on
which the time series data rests and is a constant value in
subsequent analysis.
*B6C6F0
..9

15

-l!j -

1.9 Forecasts of Initial Established Marketable Gas Reserves:

Extended forecasts at five year intervals to the year
2000 are contained in the section following.

We interpret these

forecasts as representing the extrapolation of patterns of activity

Should the activity patterns change markedly, then the

projections would not apply.

With respect to Alberta, the implication is that new
approaches are required in exploration and development and old
methods of doing business abandoned if more natural gas Is to
be available there.

It is suggested, for example, that deeper

drilling and in a relatively new area, the Alberta Foothills,

might be productive.
In addition, just below is given short-range forecasts for the years 1970 through 1972.

Short Range Forecasts

1970 AOGCB Data

Year

Actual

1970

56549

56411

1971

58161

58351

Forecast

1972

60165

1973

61856

Acknowledgement:
Acknowledgement is made
Dr. M. Sablatash and with Ross C. R
the computer programs and the reali

.
..

REFERENCES

1.

Reserves of Crude Oil, Gas, Natural Gas Liquids and Sulphur,

Province of Alberta, Report OGCB 71-I.8,Oil and Gas Conservation Board, Calgary, Alberta, December 31, 1970.

2.

Natural Gas Reserves of the Province of Alberta and Other

Related Data, The Petroleum and Natural Gas Conservation
Board, The Province of Alberta, January 31, 1957.

3.

Alberta Oil

4.

Reserves of Crude Oil, Gas$ Natural Gas Liquids and Sulphur,

Province of Alberta, Energy Resources Conservation Board,
Calgary, Alberta, December 31, 1971.

5.

Moore, C.L. Projection of United States Petroleum Supply to

198o, United States Department of the Interior, Office of

and Gas Picture 1947 - 1970, Department of Mines

and Minerals, Government of the Province of Alberta, 1971.
and Reserves of Crude Oil, Gas, Natural Gas Liquids and
Sulphur as per reference 1.

Oil and Gas, Washington, D.C., 1966.

6.

Hubbert, M.King, Energy Resources, Publication 1000 - D,

National Academy of Sciences - National Research Council,
Washington, D.C., 1962.

7*

Ryan, J.T. one View of the Future of the Oil Industry In

Alberta, Preliminary Draft, University of Alberta,
Edmonton, Alberta, October 1971.

8.

Ryan, J.M. Limitations of Statistical Methods for Predicting

Petroleum aridNatural Gas Reserves and Availability,
Journal of Petroleum Technology, March, 1966. pp. 281 - 287.

References (cont~d.)

9.

Arps, J.J., Mortada, M. and Smith, A.E., lRelationsh~p

Between
Proved Reserves and Exploratory Effort, Journal of Petroleum
Technology, June 1971, pp. 671- 675.

10. Lovejoy, W.F. and Homan, P.T.,

Methods of Estimating Reserves

of Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids,
Resources for the Future, Inc., Distributed by the Johns
Hopkins Press, 1965.

11

120

Brown, R.G., Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction,

Prentice-Hail, Inc.j Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 19630
McLaughlin, G.T. ~ForecastingTechniques with some Applications
to Non-Renewable Energy Resources, National Energy Board,
Ottawa, June 1972.

13. Durbin, J. and Watson, G.S., Biometrika, Volume 38,

1951, pp. 159 - 178.
14.

Box, G.E.P., Jenkins, G.M. and Bacon, D.W., Models for

Forecasting Se&sonal and Non-Seasonal Time Series, in
Advanced Seminar on Spectral Analysis of Time Series ,
Bernard Harris, Editor, John Wiley and Sons, Inc.
New York, 1967, pp. 271 - 311.

LEARNING A PURSUIT TASK

FOR AIRCRAFT PILOT SELECTION
600

500

400

200

BELL, i+. M. d EXR PSYCH,

100

0,

VOL. 40, W

648-649,

10
TIME TO LEARN

15

ORIGINAL LEARNING

19S0

20

2
FIGURE

EFFECTIVENESS OF EXPLORATORYDRILLING

1955-58
REFERENCES
ALBERTA

OIL ANO GAS PICTURE,

DEPARTMENT

OF MINES

GOVERNMENT

OF THE

AND

1947-1970,

MINERALS,

PROVINCE

OF ALBERTA,

1971.
RESERVES

OF CRUDE OIL, GAS, NATURAL

LIQUIDS AND SULPHUR,

PROVINCE

OIL AND GAS CONSERVATION

ALBERTA,

DECEMBER

GAS

OF ALBERTA,

BOARD, CALGARY,

31,1970.

ACTUAL

FITTED

DATA
DATA

-%x

1967-70

TIME

ALBERTA INITIAL ESTABLISHED M/?RKEIABLE

GAS RESERVES:
DATA FROM OIL AND GAS
Discovery
Year
15)51

cO!!SZZvA~ION
9CAnD(1968;

Yez? Of Estlnate
1952 1953

1951

488

204

195$
818

687

1955

1956

828

1957!

1958

826

826

803

1! 59
767

19GG

1961

1962

1963

77s

817

817

807

1964

:56[

1955

1966

1957

e22

666

839

15<8
816

1$)52

987

1953

15721

161;

Z?.?l

1766

1934

2131

:.158

2257

2389

2S25

2630

2763

2871

3510

3059

3.9..L

1022

1993

2630

2346

237b

2870

:135

3hl?

3?28

3818

3853

3941

4253

3949

3900

3683

548

937

Ikob

1951

2416

2751

3396

3215

3457

3Q43

3469

3596

3611

3603

35C7

236

1064

a35

? 36

:03a

loab

;188

]2a5

1322

1399

1438

1440

lb76

155E

457

S25

ao9

850

1372

1498

1655

1728

2049

220$

2239

24sa

2S27
2a93

1954
1955
1956

1363

1957
Ig~B

227b

:726

3263

3260

338a

299Q

2910

2791

2943

d
29538

1397

1901

2258

236.5

2552

255a

2512

2466

24a7

2501

2b95

71s

1S62

1773

17s9

la9c

2S72

35s5

3574

3832

3*5?

690

625

-aas

897

1087

1333

1585

163a

161S

:57

850

958

2000

2116

2267

2S92

4102

304

1160

1703

1666

1962

21s4

2147

320

392

4s1

sal

629

BG7

273

aea

867

697

716

487

622

a73

1017

307

306

303

368

1411

1959
1s)52
1361
[

1962
i963
19(34
I

1956

1965

.
I

i96i
I

1368

Totals
*

All

2ok

1*75

32al

4970

figures
givenin 3CF.

S3S0

7861

9a08

1s9

136+5

16s141

19392,

2i615

23295

24566

27829

3G9C6

32510

3*lla

36942

ALJ3Z3TAI?IITIALESTABLISHED XARKZifi5LEGAS RESERVES:

DATA FROM OIL AND GAS CCNSERVATION !30ARi (1969)

of Estimate

Year

Xscovezy
~e~r
1951
1551

1952

226

1352

1953

lW!

1955

:956

1!357

1958

:9~~

1963

19f~
778

2181

2280

2412

2S48

2623

2786

2789

3134

3307

3698

3688

3833

2076

154i

2912

3489

3373

3E15

1974

756

901

951

1001

1160

486

554

851

889

1418

1303

2214

26S8

1419

1925

860

848

831

9s9

1584

1623

1733

1778

1958

2154

1022

1993

2630

2319

2332

548

942

1454

1956

829

850

22Y

i96~

837

040

1955

1960

837

709

1954

1959

793

500

1553

1957
1958

789.

1959

6J19

1965
abti

1966

1967

1968

888

861

838

819

2896

3047

3146

3091

3141

3924

4237

3920

3879

3862

3077

3601

3642

37b9

3765

3757

3741

3606

125S

1292

13s4

1378

1462

1498

1580

1606

1520

168S

17.s8

2069

2223

2264

2479

2548

2550

3173

3270

3398

2904

2820

2701

28S3

2863

2802

271a

2201

2627

2628

2624

2564

2s18

2530

2S52

2546

2670

1496

177s

164S

1782

2458

3658

3477

373s

3761

196C

1961

:363

3782
i

691

818

878

890

1080

1326

1s78

1631

16:2

-1
1632

580

853

981

2023

2X49

2290

261S

4125
-t-

4800

304

1160

170s

1666

1962

2154

21&

21:1

323

392

4s1

581

828

806
=1- I

8c2

273

808

068

698

717

717

463

798

993

1962

1~~~

lC)~a
-.

:555

1993

13.12

1356

1.

:5.57

308

307

304

30s

35a

:402

1388

I
I

Lgca

282
1

:969

* AL

SS9

~~$als

226

figures

1499

given

331s

ECF.

50041

63811

78s9

9827

282.

12700

16288

!20009

21878

23?.34

24S97

2786?

31147

32599

343s4

3als7

38718

.-,. =-s
ALBERT.:I~;I.1IAL
E.STAbLLL1.
L FA3XkXA!E.i.
_.

GAS ?ZSZ?P3:

DATA FROM OIL AND tiASCC?JSERVATIONWARD

241

1?52

4
19?0I

1969

840

S41

836

819

782

786

83C

826

020

76a

835

879

e43

790

eo7

761

998

1s83

1629

1740

1810

199*

2174

2200

7264

2*I4

2S77

2670

285S

2913

2944

3062

3107

3148

3132

1024

2002

2230

2309

2312

2830

3078

j409

3666

3783

3801

391s

.215

3936

3882

3865

3984

4003

532

926

1838

2070

2S73

2320

3472

3339

3596

3582

3632

3739

3751

3741

3720

3*84

3124

97JI

826

991

981

1053

1240

1335

1372

1434

1458

15s2

1498

1574

1600

164S

63o

847

aas

1414

1529

1686

1760

2071

23o4

2263

2445

2504

Zkso

2460

1315

2145

2s83

316;

3188

3304

2832

2773

26S0

2762

2788

2727

2736

2737

1427

1933

2289

2297

2616

2s0s

2368

2459

2475

2547

2S6S

2687

2670

68b

1s17

1722

1819

1814

2bS7

3542

3s.11

3769

3786

3827

3981

781

908

958

960

1364

1410

1661

1703

1725

1695

1663

S81

800

1005

205s

2170

2315

2646

4)2S

4772 , 4925

314

1178

1721

1684

1983

2172

2165

2169

2174

32o

392

4s1

579

826

806

807

837

276

929

910

740

760

830

841

417

76o

749

07s

1194

1197

289

323

29S

386

141s

1188

1957
1958
1959
196o
1961
lgcz
1963
1964
1965

1966

1557

1
1
..-..

1968

1569

1970

1967 1968

830

1956

Totals

1965 1s66

709

229

1960

1964

520

1955

1958 1959

i96j

1955

1956 1957

1961 1962

1952 1953 1954

1953

1954

Year of EstiRate

Discovery
Yezr
1951
1951

(1970)

241

All figures

:sla

3316

4993

givenIn BCF.

S965

a260

265
. .

II
99a3

307 \

33s

I 2099 : 238a
zal

391

1138067

sal ! z401
233
260S3
t

20]4a

21714

23694

24719

27871

31X76

1
32570

34118

37077

39461

4oa9a
I

1968
FUFKXIONSFOR INITIAL
FURECAST
ESTABLISHED
ALBERTAMARKETABLE
GAS RESERVES

WITH80% CONFIDENCE
LIMITS
YEAR

1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970

LOWERLIMIT
(TcF)

ACXUAL
(TCF)

4728,9
5039.6
5483.
?
6090.1
;::;.;

5158.1
5497.0
5981.5
6642.9
7509.6
8603.8

9112.8
10564,0
;::;:;

16192:1
18427,8
20797.1

23267.9
25807.4
28383.5
309661
33527.8
36044.6
38496.0
40865.4
43139.4
45308.1
47364,8
49305,3
51127.7

PREDI(XED
(TCF)

10305
11750
13802
15721
17289
19007
21219

9939.9
11522.8
13348.0
15401.6
17661,7
20100 3
22684.7

25576
28302
32792
34636
m;

25379.8
2814s?
.7
3oo;~
,;

41697
45194
46983
48844
52053

UPPERLIMIT
(TCF)
5626.2
5995*9
6524.3
;;;;.;
9384;7
10842.0
12568.7
;;;;;;

19264:7
21924.7
24743.6
;;;:;.;

53780.3
55768.1

33769:6
36842.2
39890.0
42884.4
45801.1
48620,0
51325,5
53905.8
56352.8
58661.5
60829.7

36570:8
39316.
I
41990.0
44574.4
47054.8
49420.4
5i663.7

1975

58772.0

63832.5

69328.7

1980

63681.2

69200.9

751991

1985

66797.6

726I.o.2

78928.7

1990

68721.6

74715.6

81232.3

1995

69889.9

?5994.2

82631.6

2000

70592.5

76763.1

83473.2

COMPARISON OF PREDtCTIONS
OF lNITiAL ALBERTA MARKETABLE GAS RESERVES
Cu= 800/. UPPER CONFIDEMX BOUND-1968
CL= 8070 -R

c~~~E

FIGURE

DATA

BolJ~D- 1968 DATA

90

85

11.4

)0.4

80

8.9

ma
75
r
2.3

70

65

I#

LEGEND
1970

1%9

1968---55

I
-rim

1975

1980

Im

1995

..

1969
IKREC.4ST FUNOTIONS
FOR INITIAL

ESTABLISHED
ALBERTAMARKEIABLE
GAS RESERVES
WITH 80%COIWIDENCE
LIMITS
LQWERLm
(~)
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970

4776.8
5098.5
5551.0
6161.4
6954.1
7948.4
9157.4
10586.5
12233.2
14087.2
16131.5
18343.3
20695.7
23159.3
25703.4
28297.6
30912.7
33521.7
36100.3
38627.3
41084.9
43458.4
45736.3
47910.2
49974.1
51924.8

:975

ACTUAL
(TCF)

..
10330
10777
13841
15760
17328
19004
21241

24505
28355
32811
34935
36589
38o25
41739
45468
47118
49112
53434
5407X

PREDICTED

UPPERLIMIT

(TcF)

(TCF)

5210.3

5683.0
6065.7
6604.1

5561.1
6054.7
6720.5
@ ;
9988:3

11547.0
13343.1
15365.4
1759592
20007.6
22573.5
25260.7
28035.6
30865.2
33717.6
36563,3
39375 9
42132.2
44812.7

7330.3
8273.3
9456.2
10894.6

12594.8
14553.8
16759.6
19191.7
21823.1
24621.8
27552.7
305795
33665.8
36777.0
39880.9
:;;4;.:

47401.6
4g886
.2
52257.3
54508.5
56635.9

48878:9
51702,6
54412.7
56998.9
59454.4
61774.9

60209.7

65418.5

71078. I.

1980

65709.4

71437.2

77664.3

1985

69296,2

75364.3

81963.7

1990

71567.4

7785I.. 5

84687.5

1995

72979.8

79398.7

86382.0

2000

73848,8

80350.5

87424.8

COMPARISON OF PREDICTIONS
OF INITIAL ALBERTA MARKETABLE GAS RESERVES
Cu= 30 0/0UPPER CONFIDENCE BOUNDCL= so:/o L~R

FIGURE 4

969 DATA

CONFIDENCE BOUND - 969

DATA

90

35.3

es

Cu

80

304
W.9

.0

Oz-

75

Gf---0
0

~6.8
> 7

9
70

LEGEND

1970

[969.
196e----

197s

1980

1990

1995

2000

z
NATIONAL EKRGY

BOARO. 30 MARCH 1S72

w.

unme7.

..

1970
IWECAST
FUNCTIONS
FOR INITIAL
ESTAJ3LIS~ALBEFTAMARKETABLE
GAS RESERVES
W12H 80% CONFIDENCE
LIMITS
lXNIER
Lm
(m)
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970

ACTUAL
(TcF)

4795.6
5119.9
5578.1
;5:; . ;
8017:9
9250.2
10706.6
12383.4
14269.1

16345,1
18587.0
20966.5
23ti52.
ti
26014.1
28619.1
;;;;:,:
36412;7
38923.0
4135795
43702.2
45946.3
48082.1
50104.4
52010.4

10347
11799
13842
15747
16852
lg460
21418
25762
28316
32969
34749
36999
38163
41745
45501

47o85
48844
52207
54916
56549

PREDICXED

UPPER

LIMIT

(T@)

(m)

5201.4
5553*1
6050.1
6722.5
7597.4
8696.2
10032.8
11612.4
13431.1
15476.3
17728.0
20159.6
22740.5
25437.1
282~5.
z
31040.5
33881.2
36707.6
39393e5
42216.1
44856.6
47399.7
49833.7
52150.1
54343*5
56410.8

5641,4
6022,9
6561.9
7291.3

51410,0
54049.9
565624
58941.3
61183.5

824o,2
$)h32.O

10881.7
12594.9
14567.4
16785*7
1922?.9
21865.2
24664.4
27589.2
30602.2

33666.7
36747.8
3981.3.3
42834,9
45787,9
48651.7

1975

6o04j.8

64882.3

70106.1

1980

65321,1

70618.0

76344,4

1985

68722*5

74319.1

80371.4

1990

70854,1

76639.1

82896.5

1995

72167.1

78068.4

84452.2

2000

72967.5

78935.
(

85400.3

..
.

COMPARISON W PREDICWONS
OF INI17AL ALBERTA MARKETABLE GAS RESERVES

II
FIGURE

90 +

85
)3.5

10.4

80

8.9

%6
75 r
4.7

LL
LJ
+

1,
*E 70

Ii!

65

60

1970

t669
----

55

s+
.lm

197s

Mr!ONALfwM?YH,30MAwMm

1690

1995

W.

MOI056-P

,~

FIGURE 6

TIME RATE OF CHANGE OF INITIAL

ESTABLISHED ALBERTA NATURAL GAS RESERVES
3200

2800
Z(t) s t@tog

Adog

B~Bt*A6+

2400

2000
id
.

1600

~
N
I

1200

800
NOTE : GRADH DERIVED
TECHNIQUES
RESERVES

400

LIQUIDS

0 ..-

1945

VIA

NON-LINEAR

APPLIED

OIL, GAS, NATIJRAL

SULPHUR,

ALBERTA

ENERGY

CALGARY,

ALBERTA,

PROVINCE

RESOURCES

IN
GAS

OF ALBERTA,

CONSERVATION

DECEMBER

BOARD,

3t, 1971

19s5

1965

197S

1985

t
..

SQUARES

TO DATA CONTAINED

OF CRU~E

AND

LEAST

19%

Mathematical Formulation
Let y(t) be an ergodic stochastic process and let
Y(t) = Pr{y(t) ~y}

Bt
= A

aol

the distribution function of y(t), Y(t) may be characterized

by the relationship
t<()

Y(t) = o
t
= AB

t~o

a.2

Making use of the theory of distributions in the sense of

L. Schwartz, we may define the distribution function of
equation a.2 as
F(t) = Y(t)u(t)

a.3

u(t) = ft (S(t)dt
.m

a.4

where

so that

U(t)=l,

t~o

= o,

t<(l

a.5

Hence, we may obtain the density function of y(t) by differentiating equation a.3 with respect to t.
That is,
dF(t)
BtlnA*lnB*U(t) + A*6(t)
dt = P(Y(t)) = ABt*

a.6

making use of the propertfithat

-&U(t)

= 6(t)

a.7

*Lighthill, M.J. An Intnmduction to Fourier Analysis and

Generalized Function, Cambridge University Press; New York, 1959. -

-2-
We may integrate equation a.6 obtaining, for t>O,
f~ ~F(t)

~t

(A

~Bt,Bt

-m
Bt

A)

a.8

~~p(y(t))dt

lnA*lnBU(t)dt + ~~ A*6(t)dt

U(t) + A

U(t)

a.9

a.10

=A
It

13t

follows from

all

a.8 and all,

and the fact that O<A<l, OCB<l,

that
~~ p(y(t))dt

d
~a~

F(t)

ABm

= 1

a.12