Probability and Statistics for Engineers

22092 - GENG 200 - L01

Dr. A.Sleptchenko
9:30 am - 10:45 am

Tutorial #2 Chapter 3

GENG 200 - L01 (Dr. A.Sleptchenko): Tutorial #2 Chapter 3

Contents
Exersise 1
(1) . . .
(2) . . .
(3) . . .
(4) . . .
(5) . . .

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3
3
3
3
3
4

Exersise 2
(1) . . .
(2) . . .
(3) . . .
(4) . . .
(5) . . .
(6) . . .
(7) . . .

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5
5
5
5
5
5
6
6

Exersise 3
(1) . . .
(2) . . .
(3) . . .
(4) . . .
(5) . . .
(6) . . .

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Page 2 of 8

GENG 200 - L01 (Dr. A.Sleptchenko): Tutorial #2 Chapter 3

Exersise 1

Exersise 1
The Probability Mass Function, f (.), for the random variable X = {0, 1, 2, 3} representing the number of
daily computers failures is given as follows:
x
f (x)

0
0.45

1
c

2
0.15

3
0.05

(1)
What is the value of c = f (1)? (Justify your answer)
Solution:
3
P
f (x) = 1 f (x) = 1 (f (0) + f (2) + f (3)) = 1 0.65 = 0.35
x=0

(2)
Calculate the expected value of X, E[X]
Solution:
3
P
E[X] =
x f (x) = 0 0.45 + 1 0.35 + 2 0.15 + 3 0.05 = 0.8
x=0

(3)
Calculate the variance of X, V [X]
Solution:
3
P
V [X] =
x2 f (x) (E[X])2 = (02 0.45 + 12 0.35 + 22 0.15 + 32 0.05) 0.82 = 0.76
x=0

(4)
Determine the Cumulative Distribution Function of X, (F ()) (in the form of piecewise function)
Solution:
F (0) = f (0) = 0.45
F (1) = f (0) + f (1) = 0.45 + 0.35 = 0.8
F (2) = f (0) + f (1) + f (2) = 0.45 + 0.35 + 0.15 = 0.95
F (3) = f (0) + f (1) + f (2) + f (3) = 0.45 + 0.35 + 0.15 + 0.05 = 1

0,
x<0

0.45, 0 x < 1
F (x) =
0.8,
1x<2

0.95,
2
x<3

1,
x3

Exersise 1 continued on next page. . .

Page 3 of 8

GENG 200 - L01 (Dr. A.Sleptchenko): Tutorial #2 Chapter 3 Exersise 1 (continued)

(5)
Use the CDF function F to find the following probabilities:
a. Probability that at most four failures are observed
b. Probability that more than 1.5 failures are observed

Solution:
a. Probability that at most four failures are observed
P (X 4) = F (4) = 1
b. Probability that more than 1.5 failures are observed
P (X > 1.5) = 1 P (X 1.5) = 1 F (1.5) = 1 0.8 = 0.2

Page 4 of 8

GENG 200 - L01 (Dr. A.Sleptchenko): Tutorial #2 Chapter 3

Exersise 2

Exersise 2
A dice game consists in rolling a fair six-sided die: the roll is considered as success only when side two or
side six (face N = 2 or Face N = 6) is on top, otherwise the die roll is considered as failure.

(1)
Calculate (with justification) the following:
Probability of a success
Probability of a loss
Solution:
Probability of a success
P (X = 1 or X = 6) = 2/6(die rolls are uniformly distributed)
Probability of a loss
4/6 complement of the success

(2)
Assuming that the die rolls are independent, what is the distribution (type and parameters) of the number
of trials until getting the first success?
Solution:
Geometric Distribution with parameter p = 2/6

(3)
What is the expected number of trials until the first success?
Solution:
E[x] = 1/p = 3trials

(4)
What is the probability to win at most after 2 trials?
Solution:
P (X 2) = P (X = 1) + P (X = 2) =

2
6

2
6

4
6

= 5/9 = 0.56

(5)
What is the probability to win at most after 3 trials?
Solution:
P (X 3) = P (X = 1) + P (X = 2) + P (X = 3) =

Exersise 2 continued on next page. . .

1
3

2
3

1
3

+ ( 23 )2

1
3

= 19/27 = 0.70

Page 5 of 8

GENG 200 - L01 (Dr. A.Sleptchenko): Tutorial #2 Chapter 3 Exersise 2 (continued)

(6)
Use the conditional probability rule to find the probability to win at most after 5 trials giving that no success
is observed in the first three trials?
Solution:
P (X 5|X > 3)

P (X 5 and X > 3)
P (3 < X 5)
P (4 X 5)
=
=
P (X > 3)
P (X >
3)
3)




P (X >
3
1
1
2 3
2 4
1
3 +3 3
23 + 13
P (X = 5) + P (X = 4)
=
= 3
= 3


2 3
1 P (X 3)
8/27
3
1 1 2
= + = 5/9
3 3 3

2 4
3

(7)
Compare the results of (5-a) and (4), comment on this
Solution:
Q(5-a): P (X 5X > 3)
=
Q(4): P (X 2)
Both probabilities are the same because of the lack of memory property of the Geometric distribution.

Page 6 of 8

GENG 200 - L01 (Dr. A.Sleptchenko): Tutorial #2 Chapter 3

Exersise 3

Exersise 3
The number of flaws on a cell phones screen of 50cm2 is assumed to be a Poisson distribution with a mean
of 0.01 per cm2 . In the quality control process a screen is considered conform if it contains at most 2 flaws.
Otherwise it is defective and needs to be replaced.

(1)
What is the probability that a randomly selected screen is conform?
Solution:
X number of flows in a 50cm2 screen, E[X] = 50 0.01 = 0.5. X P oisson(0.5)
P (screen is conform) = P (X 2) =

P2
0

e0.5 0.5x
x!

= 0.985

The quality control department has two performances indicators defined by (1) the number of conform
screens, and (2) the number of premium screens (screens having no flaws) in a randomly selected sample of
10 screens.

(2)
Identify with justification the distribution (type and parameters) of the two described numbers:
(a) Distribution of the number (denoted by Y ) of conform screens
(b) Distribution of the number(denoted by Z) of premium screens
Solution:
(a) Distribution of the number (denoted by Y ) of conform screens
Y Binomial(n = 10, p) with p = P (screen is conform) = 0.985
(b) Distribution of the number(denoted by Z) of premium screens
Z Binomial(n = 10, p) with p = P (screen is premium) = P (X = 0) = e0.5 = 0.606

(3)
What is the probability that only one screen is defective?
Solution:
one screen is defective equivalent to say 9 screens are conform:


9
P (Y = 9) = f (9) = 10
9 (0.985) (1 0.985) = 0.130

(4)
What is the probability that at least 9 screens are conform?
Solution:
P (Y 9) = f (9) + f (10) =

10
9

(0.985)9 (1 0.985) +

Exersise 3 continued on next page. . .

10
10

(0.985)1 0 = 0.99

Page 7 of 8

GENG 200 - L01 (Dr. A.Sleptchenko): Tutorial #2 Chapter 3 Exersise 3 (continued)

(5)
What is the probability that all selected screens are premium?
Solution:
P (Z = 10) = f (10) =

10
10

(0.606)1 0 = 0.0066

(6)
What must be the mean value of flaws per cm2 to have 50% chance getting all selected screens premium?
Solution:
Let the mean value of flaws per cm2 be denoted by c (unknown), this means that the number of flaws per
screen is following a Poisson distribution with mean = 50c. And the number of premium screens , Z, is
then following a Binomial Distribution with n = 10 and p = P (screen is premium) = P (X = 0) = e50c
P (Z = 10) = f (10) =

10
10

(e50c )10 = e(500c) = 0.5 c =

ln (0.5)
500

= 0.001386f laws/m2

Page 8 of 8