Morning Call – 6/11/2010

Stone Street Advisors

ChiBondKing – laszlochi@gmail.com

Morning Focus
Glad to be back again. Today’s Morning Call is dedicated to the Chicago Blackhawks, winners of the Stanley Cup. With that said,
you can expect that there will be a large section of the marketplace missing at least here in Chicago when the festivities begin at
10AM CST. Here’s a quick overview of what has happened in the overnight markets: Hang Seng 19872 +1.22pct, Australia 4505.50
+1.58pct, Nikkei 9705.25 +1.70, China Shanghai 2569.94 +0.29pct. Today we will get another look at just how the battered
consumer is holding up, with retail sales and consumer sentiment #’s, although I am expecting it to be a rather quiet day after the
morning’s numbers. Have a great weekend, and no matter what life throws at you, be resilient.

Notable Overnight Headlines

Asia
S.Korea FX control steps likely in days –official (Reuters)
S Korea Forex Measures Will Go Beyond Forward Positions-Official (DJ)
S Korea To Unveil Steps To Limit Forex Forward Trades Sunday Afternoon – Official (DJ)
China CPI rises 3.1 pct y/y in May, 19-month high
China May copper output up 4.7 pct, aluminium record
China Jan-May Crude Runs At 170.5 Mln Tons, Up 19% On Year (DJ)
China Govt: Annual CPI Target Growth Of 3% Can Be Achieved (DJ)
China bank lending slows to $93.8 billion in May (MarketWatch)
Japan’s PM Kan calls for non-partisan debate for fiscal reform
Japan PM Kan: to work with BOJ to beat deflation (Reuters)
A Super Failure? Superfund shuts 6 offices including S'pore, Sydney, Dubai (Reuters)
Uhoh? China yields rise after bill sales undersubscribed (Reuters)
Inflation somewhere in the world: Indian bond yields at 10-day high on inflation worry (Reuters)

Europe
U.K. May Output PPI Up 5.7% y/y
U.K. May manufacturing output sees 0.4% fall (MarketWatch)
U.K. May House Prices Rise 9.7% y/y vs. 10.3% Last Month (Acadametrics)
Overnight deposits at ECB inch back from record high (Reuters)
ECB: Deposit Facility Use Thu EUR365.904 Bln, Down EUR3.08B (DJ)
A voice of reason?? -- ECB's Tumpel-Gugerell: 'brain drain' to banks bad for growth (Reuters)
Spain says has not, will not make EU aid request (Reuters)
Polish zloty to keep appreciating, Polish c-bank head (Reuters)
Ukraine borrows $2 bln from Russia to support budget (Reuters)
Spain Sovereign CDS 5 Bps Tighter At 215 Bps – Markit
German May Wholesale Prices Rise 0.3% On Month
German Q1 Exports Up 10.3% On Year
French May HICP Up 1.9% y/y
Spain May CPI Rises 1.8% y/y
Hungary April Industrial Output Rises 1.1% m/m
Greece April Annual Import Price Inflation Rises To 10.1% From 9.6% In March
Greece April Import Prices Up 1.5% On Month
Lisbon: EU’s Barroso believes Europe will overcome crisis despite ‘serious economic, social risks’ and does not ‘see a
conspiracy against the Euro’ (Reuters)
Irish April retail sales up 6 pct from a yr ago

See Important Disclosures On Page 4

 EU: Spanish Government Taking Necessary Measures

US Pre Open
Economic News

US Jobless claims fall, but still not enough to signal any real positive growth in jobs
Unsecured FinCP issuance +3.1 bln last wk vs 11.5bn fall prior week (FED)
Senator Jim Bunning says Geithner violating law by delaying semi-annual currency report (Reuters)

Equities

CIT - CIT Group officials lose bid to end fraud lawsuit(Reuters)

GLD – SPDR Gold Trust holdings hit record high at 1,306.137 tons
DELL - Dell unable to file 10-Q on time due to SEC probe, revises Q1 EPS to 17c vs. 22c, CEO in talks with Feds over fraud
allegations (MarketWatch)
Hedge Fund Watch: Moody's Upgrades Operational Quality Of Citadel Funds
RIG – Moody’s lowers Transocean’s outlook to negative

Interesting Morning Reading

Ever Wonder What Bond Traders Do?: http://www.mergersandinquisitions.com/what-you-do-in-fixed-income-sales-

trading/
Sometimes, even the best technology can lead us astray (a lesson that I’ve learned in bonds quite well the past 2 days),
an interesting take on technology from Eli at MyTradingNet: http://mytradingnet.com/blog/2010/06/08/technology-
pride-trading
Social Security Payments Are Already Crippling The Government: http://www.businessinsider.com/social-security-
payouts-are-already-crippling-the-government-this-year-2010-6
In The Summer of 2010 – Ron Holland: http://www.lewrockwell.com/holland/holland19.1.html
Woops: Merrill Sold CDO’s To Little Guys: http://www.businessinsider.com/whoops-merrill-sold-cdos-to-little-guys-
2010-6

Notable Bond Market/Economic Events

Bond Auctions (1PM ET)
o None Scheduled
Upcoming Bond Auctions (This Week)
o None Scheduled for remainder of week
Economic Releases For Today
o 8:30AM ET - Retail Sales – consensus +0.2pct, core +0.1pct m/m
o 9:55AM ET – UofM Consumer Sentiment (cons. 74.7) and Inflation Expectations
o 10:00AM ET – Business Inventories – consensus 0.6pct m/m
o 11:00AM ET – Blackhawks Parade, Chicago

See Important Disclosures On Page 4

Market Summary – 7AM

Futures Currencies Fixed Income

Symbol Last Chg Symbol Last Chg Symbol Last Symbol Last
DOW 10101 14 EURUSD 1.2128 0.0005 2s5s 131 US2Y 0.77
SP500 1081.25 1.75 GBPUSD 1.4641 -0.0072 2s10s 253 US5Y 2.08
NSDQ 1823.75 2.75 EURJPY 111.08 0.35 2s30s 344 US7Y 2.75
ZB 122'27 +0'09 USDCAD 1.0341 0.0042 5s10s 122 US10Y 3.3
ZN 120'005 +0'055 USDJPY 91.66 0.32 5s30s 213 US30Y 4.21
ZF 116'255 +0'037 NZDUSD 0.6857 -0.0014 10s30s 91 UK5Y 2.24
ZT 109'012 +0'012 UK10Y 3.55
CLN0 74.86 -0.62 UK30Y 4.3

See Important Disclosures On Page 4

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