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Negative Binomial

Prepared by: Engr. Kenny B. Cantila

Properties of a Negative Binomial


The experiment consists of x repeated trials.
Each trial can result in just two possible outcomes. We call one of
these outcomes a success and the other, a failure.
The probability of success, denoted by P, is the same on every
trial.
The trials are independent; that is, the outcome on one trial does
not affect the outcome on other trials.

http://stattrek.com/probability-distributions/negative-binomial.aspx

A negative binomial random variable is the number X of repeated


trials to produce r successes in a negative binomial experiment.
The probability distribution of a negative binomial random
variable is called a negative binomial distribution. The negative
binomial distribution is also known as the Pascal distribution.
Suppose a negative binomial experiment consists of x trials and
results in r successes. If the probability of success on an
individual trial is p, then the negative binomial probability is:
b X = x, p = x 1 Cr1 ,pr qxr -

Suppose we flip a coin repeatedly and count the number of heads


(successes). If we continue flipping the coin until it has landed 2
times on heads, we are conducting a negative binomial
experiment. The negative binomial random variable is the
number of coin flips required to achieve 2 heads. In this example,
the number of coin flips is a random variable that can take on any
integer value between 2 and plus infinity. The negative binomial
probability distribution for this example is presented below.

http://stattrek.com/probability-distributions/negative-binomial.aspx

3
2
1

H
T

H
H

Number of flips Probability


2

1/4

2/8

3/16

4/32

5/64

T
T
H
H
T
T

H
T
T

H
T
H
T
H
T
H
T
H
T
H
T
H
T
H
T

Problem Statement 1: An oil company conducts a geological study that


indicates that an exploratory oil well should have a 20% chance of
striking oil.
a. What is the probability that the first strike comes on the third well
drilled?
b. What is the probability that the third strike comes on the seventh well
drilled?
c. What is the mean of the number of wells that must be drilled if the oil
company wants to set up three producing wells?

Part a:
p = 0.20
q = 0.80

x=3
r=1

P(X = x) = x 1 Cr1 ,pr qxr P(X = 3) = 3 1 C11 ,(0.20)1 (0.80)31 = 2Co ,0.20 0.80 2 -

= 0.128

Part b:
p = 0.20
q = 0.80

x=7
r=3

P(X = x) = x 1 Cr1 ,pr qxr P(X = 7) = 7 1 C31 ,(0.20)3 (0.80)73 = 6C2 ,0.203 0.80 4 -

= 0.049152

Part c:
p = 0.20
r=3
r
3
=E X = =
= 15
p 0.20

Problem Statement 2: Bob is a high school basketball player. He is


a 70% free throw shooter. That means his probability of making a
free throw is 0.70.
What is the probability that Bob makes his third free throw on his fifth
shot?

p = 0.70
q = 0.30

x=5
r=3

P(X = x) = x 1 Cr1 ,pr qxr P(X = 5) = 5 1 C31 ,(0.70)3 (0.30)53 = 4C2 ,0.703 0.30 2 = 0.18522

What is the probability that Bob makes his first free throw on his fifth
shot?

p = 0.70
q = 0.30

x=5
r=1

P(X = x) = x 1 Cr1 ,pr qxr P(X = 5) = 5 1 C11 ,(0.70)1 (0.30)51 = 4C0 ,0.70 0.30 4 = 0.00567

Find the probability that a person tossing three coins will get either all
heads or all tails for the second time on the fifth toss.
Solution:
S = *HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, THH, TTH, THT, TTT+
Therefore, the probability of getting either all heads or all tails is given
by:
p=

1 1
+
8 8

p = 0.25
q = 0.75

p = 0.25
q = 0.75

x=5
r=2

P(X = x) = x 1 Cr1 ,pr qxr P(X = 5) = 5 1 C21 ,(0.25)2 (0.75)52 = 4C1 ,0.252 0.75 3 =

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