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Skenario

SKENARIO PRAKTIKUM TEORI PROBABILITAS MODUL 3


PT OPSI memproduksi berbagai macam produk. Salah satunya adalah sossis. PT OPSI
akan mengadakan pengecekan akan produknya. Terdapat 3 mesin yaitu mesin 1
memproduksi sossis rasa original , mesin 2 sossis rasa black pepper, mesin 3 rasa keju .
Dengan :
Mesin 1 : N = 205 ; k =40
Mesin 2 : N = 168 ; k = 68
Mesin 3 : N = 218 ; k = 154
Pertama PT OPSI mengadakan pengecekan berat terhadap sosis tersebut. Produk
dengan berat tidak sesuai, maka produk masih bisa dikembalikan ke lain produksi.
Pengecekan dilakukan dengan mengambil 5 produk diambil satu per satu lalu dicatat.
Pengecekkan Mesin 1
sampe

jumlah

l ke

cacat
1 2 3 4 5
1 T T T T T

C
2 T

C
T

C
T

C
C

C
T

C
3 T

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
4 T

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
5 T

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
6 T

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
C

C
7 T

C
C

C
T

C
T

C
8 T

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
9 T

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
C

C
10 T

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
11 T

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
12 T

C
C

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
13 T

C
T

C
C

C
C

C
14 T

C
C

C
T

C
15 T

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
16 T

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
17 T

C
T

C
T

C
C

C
T

C
18 T

C
C

C
T

C
T

C
19 T

C
T

C
C

C
T

C
20 C

C
T

C
T

C
C

21 C

C
C

C
T

22 C

C
T

C
T

C
T

23 T

C
C

C
T

C
C

C
C

C
T

C
25 T

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
26 T

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
27 C

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
C

C
24 T

28 T

C
C

C
C

C
T

C
29 T

C
T

C
T

C
30 T

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
31 C

C
C

C
C

C
T

C
C

32 T

C
C

C
33 T

C
T

C
T

C
C

C
34 T

C
T

C
C

C
C

C
35 T

C
T

C
C

C
36 C

C
T

C
T

37 C

C
C

C
C

C
T

C
T

C
C

C
T

1
0
1

38 T

C
39 T

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
40 T

C
T

C
T

C
C

C
T

Pengecekkan Mesin 2
sampe
l ke

jumlah
cacat

1 2 3 4 5
1 C T C T T

2 T

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
3 C

C
C

C
T

C
C

C
T

4 C

C
C

C
T

5 T

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
6 C

C
T

C
T

C
C

7 C

C
T

C
T

8 C

C
T

C
T

C
C

9 T

C
T

C
T

C
C

C
10 C

C
T

C
T

11 T

C
C

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
T

13 C

C
T

C
C

C
T

14 C

C
T

C
C

C
T

15 T

C
C

C
T

C
T

C
16 T

C
C

C
C

C
T

C
17 T

C
T

C
T

C
18 C

C
T

C
T

C
C

C
12 C

19 T

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
20 C

C
T

C
C

C
T

C
T

21 C

C
T

C
C

C
T

22 C

C
C

C
T

23 C

C
T

C
T

C
T

24 C

C
T

C
T

C
T

25 C

C
C

C
T

C
C

C
T

26 T

C
T

C
T

C
27 T

C
T

C
T

C
C

C
T

C
28 T

C
T

C
T

C
C

C
29 T

C
T

C
C

C
C

C
30 T

C
T

C
T

C
31 T

C
T

C
T

C
C

C
C

C
32 T

C
T

C
T

C
33 T

C
T

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
34 T

C
T

C
35 T

C
T

C
C

C
C

C
36 T

C
T

C
C

C
37 T

C
T

C
T

C
38 T

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
39 T

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
40 C

C
C

C
T

C
T

C
T

Pengeccekkan Mesin 3
sampe

jumlah

l ke

cacat
1

1 T

C
2 C

C
T

C
C

3 T

C
C

C
C

C
4 C

C
T

5 C

C
T

C
T

6 C

C
C

C
T

4
3

7 C

C
T

8 T

C
T

C
T

C
9 C

C
C

C
T

C
C

C
T

C
T

C
C

10 C
11 C

12 C

C
C

C
T

13 T

C
C

C
14 C

C
T

C
T

15 C

C
C

C
T

C
C

16 C

C
T

C
T

17 C

C
C

C
T

C
T

C
T

18 T

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
19 T

C
20 T

C
C

C
C

C
21 C
22 C
23 C

C
C
C

C
C
C

C
C
T

C
C
C

5
5
4

24 T

C
T

C
25 T

C
C

C
C

3
3

C
26 C

C
C

27 C

C
C

C
T

C
C

C
C
T

C
C
C

C
T

5
3

C
T

C
T

C
C

C
C

28 C
29 C
30 C
31 C

32 T

C
C

C
33 T

C
34 C

C
C

C
C

35 T

C
C

C
36 C

37 T

C
T

C
T

C
C

C
T

C
T

39 C

C
T

C
C

C
C

40 C

C
T

C
C

C
38 C

Selanjutnya PT OPSI mengadakan pengecekan untuk rasa sossis. Pengambilan


dilakukan 5 sekaligus. Berikut adalah hasil pengecekkan rasa produk :
Sample
ke
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

mesin

n=5
mesin

mesin

0
0
1
2
0
3
0
1
2
2
0
0

3
2
1
2
3
3
1
1
2
3
1
2

2
3
5
4
3
2
5
2
3
3
3
3

13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40

0
1
0
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
2
1
1
0
1
1
2
0
2
0

3
3
1
1
2
1
3
2
0
2
2
2
3
1
2
1
2
4
4
2
3
0
2
1
0
3
1
2

3
4
1
3
3
4
5
3
3
3
2
2
2
5
5
5
3
2
2
3
4
4
4
4
3
4
2
4

Karena terjadi pergantain kepala bagianproduksi, PT OPSI mengeluarkan kebijakan


baru dalam pengecekkan produk. Untuk pengecekkan berat sosis, setiap pengecekkan
diubah menjadi 15 produk, setiap produk yang di cek, di catat satu persatu. Berikut data
pengecekkan berat produk :

Pengecekkan Mesin 1 :
sampel
ke

n=15

Jumlah
cacat

1 2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

3 4

c C c
t

c
t

c
c
t
c
t

C
t
c
t
c

5 6 7 8 9
t

0
t

1
t

3
T

5
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c c c c c c
t t t t t t

c c
t
c
c
t
c
c
t
c
c
t t

c c
t
t
C
C c
c
c
c
t
t t t
C
c
c
c c c
t
t t t
C c
c
c c c
t t t
t t
C
c c c
c c
t t t t t
c
c c c c c
t t t t t t
c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
c c
c
c
t
t
c
c c
c
c
c
t t t
t t
c
c c c
c c
t t t t t t

c
T

C c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t
c
t
c

c c
t t
c c
t t

c c c c
t t t
c
c c c
t t t t

c
t
c
c

c
t
c
t

c
T
c
C

c
t

c
t

c
t

c c
t
c
c
t t

c
t

c
t

c
T

c
t

c
t

c c
t t

c
t

c
t

c c
t
c
c
t
c
c
t
c
c
t
c
c
t t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c c c c c
t t t t
c
c c c c
t t t t
c
c c c c
t t
t
c c
c c
c
t
t t
c
c
c
c c
t t
t t
c
c c
c c
t t t
t
c
c c c
c

c
t
c
t
c
t

C
T

C
C
C
t
c

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

t
c
t
c
t
c
c
c
c

c
t
c
c
t
c
t
c
t
c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t
c
t
c
c

c
c

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

7
5
5
2
2
6
5
4
3
3
3
4
4
1
3
3
4
3
3

20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39

c
t

c
t

c
T

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c c
t T

c
t

c c
t T

c
t

c c
t T

c c
t T

c
t
c
t
c
t

c
t

c c c c
t t t t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c c
t T

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c c
t
c
c
t t

c c c c c c
t t
t t
c c
c c
c c
t t t
t t
c
c c c
c c
t t t t t t

c
t

c c c c
t t
t
c
c c
c
t t t t

c
t

c c c
t
t
C
c
c
c
c
t
t t t
C
c
c c c
t
t t t
C
c
c c c
t T t t t

c
t

c
T

c c

c c c
t t t

c
T

c c c
t t
c
c c
t t
c
c c
t t
c
c c c
c c
t
t t t t
c
c
c c c c
t t
t t
c
c
c c
c c
t t t t t t

c
T

c c
t t

c
T

c c c c
t
t t
t
c
c c c c c c
c
t
t T
t t
C
c
c
c
c c
c c
t t t T t
t t
c
c c c c c
c c
t t t
t
t t
C
c
c c c
c
c c
t T
T
t
c
c
c c
c c
c
c
t T t
t t t
c
c
c c c
c c c

c c
c c

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
c
t
c
c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
c

c
c
t
c
t

c
t

c c
t t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c c
t t

c
t

c
t

c c
t t

c
t

c c

c
c

c
t
c

0
4
1
3
2
3
3
4
2
4
1
3
6
2
2
7
3

40

t
c

t
c

c c c c c c

Pengecekan Mesin 2 :
sampl
e ke

1 2

3 4 5 6 7 8 9

n = 15
1 1

Jumlah
Cacat

0
t

1
t

2
t

4
t

5
t

c C c c c c c c c c
T
t
t
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c c
t

c c c c c c c c
t
t
t t t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c C c c c c c c c c
t T
t
t t t t

c
t

c
t

c c c c c c c c c c
t T t t
t
t t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c c

c c c c c c c c
t
t

c
t

c
t

c C c c c c c c c c
T t t t t
t t t

c
t

c
t

11

c c
t

c c c c c c c c
t t
t t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c C c c c c c c c c
T t t t t
t t t

c
t

c
t

c c c c c c c c c c
t T
t t t t t t t

c
t

c
t

c
t

10

c c c c c c c c c c
t T t t
t t
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

11

c c c c c c c c c c
t T t
t t t

c
t

c
t

12

c c c c c c c c c c
t T
t t t t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

13

c c c c c c c c c c
t T
t t t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

14

c c
t

c c c c c c c c
t
t
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

15
16

c C c c c c c c c c
t C c t t c t t t t

c
c

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

6
4

c
t T t

c c
t t t

c c c c

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

17

c c
t

c c c c c c c c
t t
t
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

18

c C c c c c c c c c
t
t t
t t t

c
t

c
t

c
t

19

c C c c c c c c c c
t T t t
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

20

c c c c c c c c c c
t T
t t t t
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

21

c c
t

c c c c c c c c
t
t t t

c
t

c
t

22

c C c c c c c c c c
t t
t t
t

c
t

23

c C c c c c c c c c
t T t
t t
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

24

c c c c c c c c c c
T
t t t t t

c
t

c
t

c
t

25

c c

c c c c c c c c
t t

c
t

c
t

c
t

26

c C c c c c c c c c
t
t t t t
t t

c
t

10

27

c C c c c c c c c c
t T t t t t t

c
t

C c
T

28

c c
t

c c c c c c c c
t t t t t
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

29

c C c c c c c c c c
t T t t t t
t t

c
t

C c

30

c c c c c c c c c c
T t t t
t
t t

c
t

c
t

31

c c c c c c c c c c
t T
t
t
t
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

32

c c c c c c c c c c
T
t t t t
t

c
t

c
t

33

c c c c c c c c c c
T
t
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

34

c c

c c c c c c c c
t t t t t
t t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

35
36

c C c c c c c c c c
t T t c c t c t c t

c
c

c
t

c
t

c
c

c
c

4
7

c c c
t T t t

c
t t

c
t

c
t

c
t

37

c c

c c c c c c c c
t t t t t

c
t

c
t

c
t

c
t

38

c C c c c c c c c c
T
t
t
t t

c
t

c
t

c
t

39

c c c c c c c c c c
T t
t t t t

c
t

c
t

c
t

40

c c

c c c c c c c c

Pengecekkan Mesin 3 :
Sampe

Jumla

n = 15

l 1 ke

Caca
t
1

0
C

1
C

2
C

3
C

4
T

5
C

C
T

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
T

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
C

13

C
C

C
C

12

11

C
C

C
C

T
C
C

C
C

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
C

C
T

C
T

C
C

C
C

C
T

C
T

C
T

C
C

C
C

10

C
T

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
C

11

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
T

10

10

C
C

C
C

C
T

C
T

C
T

10

C
T

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
T

11

12

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
T

C
C

C
C

C
C

12

13

C
C

C
T

10

14

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
T

11

15

C
T

C
C

C
C

C
C

11

16

C
C

C
T

C
C

C
T

10

17

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
T

C
T

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
T

12

C
C

C
C

12

18

19

C
C

20

C
T

C
T

C
C

21

C
T

C
C

C
T

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
T

22

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
T

C
T

C
C

C
C

11

23

C
C

C
T

C
C

C
C

11

24

C
T

C
T

C
C

C
C

11

25

C
T

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
T

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
T

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
C

13

26

27

C
C

28

C
C

C
C

29

C
T

C
T

C
C

C
T

C
C

C
C

C
C

30

C
C

C
C

C
T

C
T

C
C

11

31
32

C
C

C
C

C
T

C
C

C
C

C
C

12

C
C

10

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
T

33

C
T

34

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
C

12

35

C
C

C
C

C
C

10

36

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
T

C
T

10

37

C
C

C
C

C
T

C
C

C
T

38

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
T

C
C

12

39

C
C

C
C

C
T

10

C
C

C
T

11

40

T
C
C

C
C

C
C

C
C

C
C

Sama halnya, engecekkan rasa produk setiap pengecekkan diubah menjadi 15 produk
sekaligus. Berikut adalah hasil pengecekkan rasa produk setiap mesinya :
Sampel
ke
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Mesi

n=15
Mesi

Mesin

n1
3
5
5
0
2
2
4
5
4
5
3
3

n2
7
6
7
8
6
7
8
6
8
5
5
7

3
12
7
10
8
9
12
11
11
10
10
6
11

13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40

6
5
6
6
6
6
3
5
4
5
0
7
5
3
4
2
1
3
5
3
1
4
3
3
1
3
1
4

6
6
4
5
8
5
6
6
7
4
5
5
5
4
7
8
8
5
5
8
5
6
11
10
6
10
6
8

13
12
10
13
8
13
14
8
12
8
10
11
8
9
11
12
11
13
12
12
11
12
9
12
9
9
12
9

Setelah melakukan pengecekkan terhadap rasa dan berat totoal dari masing-masing
produk yang di produksi setiap mesin, etugas pengecekkan diminta untuk menghitung
nilai peluang dan frekuensi dari tiap pengecekkan yang dilaukan , dengan menggunakan
3 perhitungan, yaitu secara teoritis , melalui pendekatan, dan berdasarkan hasil
pengecekkan. Setelah mendapatkan hasil dari ketiga perhitungan tersebut , kemudian
anda diminta untuk menganalisis perbandingan hasil tersebut.
I

Distribusi Hipergeometrik

I.I

Pengambilan n=5

1.1.1

Rumus (Teoritis)

P=

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

Fh = P(x) x 40

Mesin 1

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

(400 )(20540
50 )
(2055 )

P (0)

1 x 958683033
2872408791

P (0)

= 0,333

Fh

= 0,33 x 40
= 13,32

P (x)

P (0)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (1)

(401 )(20540
51 )
(2055 )

P (1)
P (1)

=
= 0,414

P(1)

Fh

= 0,41 x 40
= 16,56

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (2)

(402 )(20540
52 )
(2055 )

P (2)
P (2)

=
= 0,199

Fh

= 0,199 x 40
= 7,96

P(x)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (3)

(403 )(20540
53 )
(2055 )

P (3)
P (3)

=
= 0,046

Fh

=0,046 x 40
= 1,84

P(x)

P(x)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (4)

P (4)

= 0,00524

Fh

=0,0052 x 40
= 0,2096

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (5)

(405 )(20540
55 )
(2055 )

P (5)
P (5)

=
= 0,000229

P(x)

Fh
= 0,00916

= 0.000229 x 40

Sampl
e (x)
0
1
2
3
4
5

(404 )(20540
54 )
(2055 )

Peluang
0,333
0,414
0,199
0,046
0,00524
0,000229

Mesin 2

P (x)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

fh
13,32
16,56
7,96
1,84
0,2096
0,00916

(680 )(16868
50 )
(1685 )

P (0)

P (0)
P (0)

=
= 0,071

Fh

= 0,071 x 40
= 2,84

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (1)

(681 )(16868
51 )
(1685 )

P (1)
P (1)

=
= 0,253

Fh

= 0,253 x 40
= 10,12

P(1)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (2)

(682 )(16868
52 )
(1685 )

P (2)
P (2)

=
= 0,350

Fh

= 0,350 x 40
= 14

P(x)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (3)

(683 )(16868
53 )
(1685 )

P (3)
P (3)

=
= 0,236

Fh

=0,236 x 40
= 9,44

P(x)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (4)

(684 )(16868
54 )
(1685 )

P (4)
P (4)

=
= 0,077

Fh

= 0,077x 40
= 3,08

P(x)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (5)

(681 )(16868
51 )
(1685 )

P (5)
P (5)

=
= 0,0099

P(x)

Fh

= 0,0099 x 40
= 0,396

Sampl

Peluang

ex
0
1
2
3
4
5

0,071
0,523
0,350
0,236
0,077
0,0099

Mesin 3

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (0)

(1540 )(218154
50 )
( 2185)

P (0)
P (0)

=
= 0,001946

Fh

= 0,0019 x 40
= 0,07784

P (x)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (1)

(1541 )(218154
51 )
( 2185)

P (1)

P(1)

Fh
2,84
10,12
14
9,44
3,08
0,396

P (1)

= 0,025

Fh

= 0,025 x 40
=1

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (2)

(1542 )(218154
52 )
( 2185)

P (2)
P (2)

=
= 0,125

Fh

= 0,125 x 40
=5

P(x)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (3)

(1543 )(218154
53 )
( 2185)

P (3)
P (3)

=
= 0,3071

Fh

=0,307 1x 40
= 12,284

P(x)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (4)

(1544 )(218154
54 )
( 2185)

P (4)
P (4)

=
= 0,368

Fh

= 0,368x 40
= 14,72

P(x)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (5)

(1545 )(218154
55 )
( 2185)

P (5)
P (5)

=
= 0,1725

Fh

= 0,1725x 40
= 6,9

P(x)

Sampl
ex
0
1
2
3
4
5

Peluang
0,001946
0,025
0,125
0,3071
0,368
0,1725

Fh
0,396
1
5
12,284
14,72
6,9

1.1.2

Pendekatan Binomial Terhadap Hipergeometrik

(nx)( p) ( q)
x

p(x) =

nx

P (x)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

Perhitungan Hipergeometri P(x)

Mesin 1

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

(400 )(20540
50 )
(2055 )

P (0)

1 x 958683033
2872408791

P (0)

= 0,333

P (x)

P (0)

P(1)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

(401 )(20540
51 )
(2055 )

P (1)

P (1)
P (1)

=
= 0,414

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (2)

(402 )(20540
52 )
(2055 )

P (2)

= 0,199

Fh

= 0,199 x 40
= 7,96

P(x)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (3)

(403 )(20540
53 )
(2055 )

P (3)

= 0,046

Fh

=0,046 x 40
= 1,84

P(x)

P(x)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

(404 )(20540
54 )
(2055 )

P (4)

P (4)

= 0,00524

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (5)

(405 )(20540
55 )
(2055 )

P (5)

= 0,000229

P(x)

Binomial
P = k/N = 40/205 = 0,195
Q = 1 p = 0,805
n=5

X
0
1
2
3
4
5

Peluang (p(x))
0,338
0,409
0,198
0,048
0,0056
0,00028

Dengan menggunakan rumus :

(nx)( p) (q)
x

p(x) =

unuk x = 0

nx

Frekuensi harapan (f(h))


13,52
16,37
7,92
1,92
0,224
0,0112

p(x) =

(nx)( p) (q)

p(0) =

(50 )(0,195) (0,805)

nx

50

= (5c0) x 1 x 0.338
= 0.338
untuk x = 1
p(x) =

(nx)( p) (q)

p(1) =

(51 )(0,195) (0,805)

nx

5 1

= (5c1) x 0,195 x 0,419


= 0,409
untuk x = 2
p(x) =

(nx)( p) (q)

p(2) =

(52 )(0,195) (0,805)

nx

5 2

= (5c2) x 0,038 x 0.522


= 0.198
untuk x = 3
p(x) =

(nx)( p) (q)

p(3) =

(53 )(0,195) (0,805)

nx

53

= (5c3) x 0,0074 x 0.648


= 0.048
f(h) = 0,048 x 40 =1,92
untuk x = 4
p(x) =

(nx)( p) (q)

p(4) =

(54 )(0,195) (0,805)

nx

54

= (5c4) x 0,0014 x 0.805


= 0.0056
untuk x = 5
p(x) =

(nx)( p) (q)

p(5) =

(55 )(0,195) (0,805)

nx

55

= (5c5) x 0,00028 x 1
= 0.00028

Sampel
0
1
2
3
4
5

Mesin 2

P(x) Hipergeometri
0,333
0,414
0,199
0,046
0,00524
0,000229

P(x) Binomial
0,338
0,409
0,198
0,048
0,0056
0,00028

Hipergeometri

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (0)

(680 )(16868
50 )
(1685 )

P (0)

= 0,071

P (x)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (1)

(681 )(16868
51 )
(1685 )

P (1)

= 0,253

P(1)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (2)

(682 )(16868
52 )
(1685 )

P (2)

= 0,350

P(x)

P(x)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (3)

P (3)

= 0,236

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (4)

(684 )(16868
54 )
(1685 )

P (4)

= 0,077

P(x)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (5)

(681 )(16868
51 )
(1685 )

P (5)

= 0,0099

P(x)

Binomial

(nx)( p) ( q)
x

p(x) =

nx

unuk x = 0

(nx)( p) ( q)
x

p(x) =

(683 )(16868
53 )
(1685 )

nx

(50)(0,405) (0,595)
0

p(0) =

50

= (5c0) x 1 x 0,077
= 0,77
untuk x = 1
p(x) =

(nx)( p) ( q)

p(1) =

(51 )(0,405) (0,595)

nx

5 1

= (5c1) x 0,405 x 0,125


= 0,260
untuk x = 2
p(x) =

(nx)( p) ( q)

p(2) =

(52)(0,405) (0,595)

nx

5 2

= (5c2) x 0,169 x 0,211


= 0,396
untuk x = 3
p(x) =

(nx)( p) ( q)

p(3) =

(53 )(0,405) (0,595)

nx

53

= (5c3) x 0,0664 x 0,354

= 0,228
untuk x = 4
p(x) =

(nx)( p) ( q)

p(4) =

(54 )(0,405) (0,595)

nx

54

= (5c4) x 0,0269 x 0,595


= 0,080
untuk x = 5
p(x) =

(nx)( p) ( q)

p(5) =

(55)(0,405) (0,595)

nx

55

= (5c5) x 0,0108 x 1
= 0,0108

Sampel
0
1
2
3
4
5

Hipergeometri

Mesin 3

P(x) Hipergeometri
0,071
0,523
0,350
0,236
0,077
0,0099

P(x) Binomial
0,077
0,260
0,396
0,228
0,080
0,0108

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (0)

(1540 )(218154
50 )
( 2185)

P (0)

= 0,001946

P (x)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (1)

(1541 )(218154
51 )
( 2185)

P (1)

= 0,025

P(1)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (2)

(1542 )(218154
52 )
( 2185)

P (2)

= 0,125

P(x)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (3)

(1543 )(218154
53 )
( 2185)

P (3)

= 0,3071

P(x)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (4)

(1544 )(218154
54 )
( 2185)

P (4)

= 0,368

P(x)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (5)

(1545 )(218154
55 )
( 2185)

P (5)

= 0,1725

P(x)

Binomial

(nx)( p) ( q)
x

p(x) =

nx

unuk x = 0
p(x) =

(nx)( p) ( q)

p(0) =

(50)(0,706) (0,294)

nx

50

= (5c0) x 1 x 0,00219
= 0,00219
unuk x = 1
p(x) =

(nx)( p) ( q)

p(1) =

(51 )(0,706) (0,294)

nx

51

= (5c1) x 0,706 x 0,00747


= 0,026
untuk x = 2
p(x) =

(nx)( p) ( q)

p(2) =

(52)(0,706) (0,294)

nx

52

= (5c2) x 0,498 x 0,025


= 0,1245

untuk x = 3
p(x) =

(nx)( p) ( q)

p(3) =

(53 )(0,706) (0,294)

nx

53

= (5c3) x 0,3519 x 0.0864


= 0,304
untuk x = 4
p(x) =

(nx)( p) ( q)

p(4) =

(54 )(0,706) (0,294 )

nx

5 4

= (5c4) x 0,248 x 0.294


= 0.073
untuk x = 5
p(x) =

(nx)( p) ( q)

p(5) =

(55)(0,706) (0,294)

nx

= (5c5) x 0,1754x 1
= 0.1754

55

Sampel
0
1
2
3
4
5
1.1.3

P(x) Hipergeometri
0,001946
0,025
0,125
0,3071
0,368
0,1725

Data Percobaan
Mesin 1
P (x) =

F (x)
n

P (0) =

F (0)
40

16
40

= 0,4

P (1) =

F (1)
40

17
40

= 0,425

P (2) =

F (2)
40

6
40

= 0,15

P (3) =

F (3)
40

1
40

= 0,025

0
40

=0

0
40

=0

F (4)
P (4) = 40
F (5)
P (5) = 40

P(x) Binomial
0,00219
0,026
0,1245
0,304
0,073
0,1754

Terambil Cacat (x)


0
1
2
3
4
5
Total

Frekuensi
16
17
6
1
0
0
40

Peluang P(x)
0,4
0,425
0,15
0,025
0
0

Mesin 2
P (x) =

F (x)
n

P (0) =

F (0)
40

3
40

= 0,075

11
40

= 0,275

F (2)
P (2) = 40

14
40

= 0,35

P (3) =

F (3)
40

10
40

= 0,25

P (4) =

F (4)
40

2
40

= 0,05

P (5) =

F (5)
40

0
40

=0

F (1)
P (1) = 40

Terambil cacat (x)


0
1
2
3
4

Frekuensi
3
11
14
10
2

Peluang P(x)
0,075
0,275
0,35
0,25
0,05

5
Total

0
40

Mesin 3
F (x)
P (x) =
n

P (0) =

F (0)
40

0
40

=0

P (1) =

F (1)
40

1
40

= 0,025

P (2) =

F (2)
40

9
40

= 0,225

P (3) =

F (3)
40

15
40

= 0,375

P (4) =

F (4)
40

9
40

= 0,225

P (5) =

F (5)
40

6
40

= 0,15

Terambil cacat (x)


0
1
2
3
4
5
Total

1.2

Pengambilan n =15

Frekuensi
0
1
9
15
9
6
40

Peluang P(x)
0
0,025
0,225
0,375
0,225
0,15

1.2.1

Rumus (Teoritis)

P=

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

Fh = P(x) x 40

Mesin 1

P = k/N = 40/205 = 0,195


Q = 1 p = 0,805
n = 15

P (x)

P (0)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

(400 )(20540
150 )
(205
15 )

P (0) = 0,0338
Fh = 0.0338 x 40 = 1,352

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (1)

(401 )(20540
151 )
(205
15 )

P (1)

= 0,314

P(1)

Fh= 0,314 x 40 = 5,36

P(x)

P (2)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

(402 )(20540
152 )
(205
15 )

P (2) = 0,24126
Fh = 0,24126 x 40 = 9,6505

P(x)

P (3)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

(403 )(20540
153 )
(205
15 )

P (3) = 0,2596
Fh = 0,2596 x 40 = 10,384

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (4)

(404 )(20540
154 )
(205
15 )

P (4)

= 0,1871

P(x)

Fh = 0,1871 x 40 = 7,484

P(x)

P (5)

P(x)

P (6)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

(405 )(218154
155 )
( 2055)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

(406 )(20540
156 )
(205
15 )

P (6) = 0,0357
Fh = 0,0357x 40 = 1,428

P(x)

P (7)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

(407 )(20540
157 )
(205
15 )

P (7) = 0,00995
Fh = 0,00995x 40 = 0,398

P(x)

P (8)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

(408 )(20540
158 )
(205
15 )

P (8) = 0,00995
Fh = 0,00995x 40 = 0,398

P(x)

P (9)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

(409 )(20540
159 )
(205
15 )

P (9) = 0,00325
Fh = 0,00325x40 = 0,13

P(x)

P (10) =

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

(4010 )(20540
1510 )
(205
15 )

P (10) = 0,00378
Fh = 0,00325x40 = 0,13

P(x)

P (11) =

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

(4011)(20540
1510 )
(205
15 )

P (11) 0,0032
Fh = 0,0032x40 = 0,128

P(x)

P (12) =

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

(4012 )(20540
1512 )
(205
15 )

P (12) = 0,0032
Fh = 0,0032x40 = 0,076

P(x)

P (13) =

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

(4013 )(20540
1513 )
(205
15 )

P (13) = 0,0075
Fh = 0,0075x40 =0,3

P(x)

P (14) =

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

(4014 )(20540
1514 )
(205
15 )

P (14) = 0,0032
Fh = 0,0032x40 = 0,076

P(x)

P (15) =

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

(4012 )(20540
1512 )
(205
15 )

P (15) = 0,00178
Fh = 0,0712x40 = 0,0748

sampl

Peluang

FH

e
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

0,0338
0,314
0,24126
0,2596
0,1871
0,0956
0,0357
0,00995
0,00207
0,00325
0,00378
0,0032

1,352
5,36
9,6504
10,384
7,484
3,824
1,428
0,398
0,0828
0,13
0,1512
0,128

12
13
14
15

0,0019
0,0075
0,00178
0,00187

0,076
0,3
0,0712
0,0748

Mesin 2

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (0)

(680 )(16868
150 )
(168
15 )

P (0)

= 0,000263

P (x)

Fh = 0,000263x 40 = 0,01052

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (1)

(681 )(16868
151 )
(168
15 )

P (1)

= 0,00312

P (x)

Fh = 0,00312x 40 = 0,1248

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (2)

(682 )(16868
152 )
(168
15 )

P (2)

= 0,0168

P (x)

Fh = 0,0168x 40 = 0,672

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (3)

(683 )(16868
153 )
(168
15 )

P (3)

= 0,0546

P (x)

Fh = 0,0168x 40 = 2,184

P (x)

P (4)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

(684 )(16868
154 )
(168
15 )

P (4)

= 0,1197

Fh = 0,1197x 40 = 4,788

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (5)

(685 )(16868
155 )
(168
15 )

P (5)

=0,1874

P (x)

Fh = 0,1874x 40 = 7,496

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (6)

(686 )(16868
156 )
(168
15 )

P (6)

= 0,2164

P (6)

Fh = 0,2164x 40 = 8,648

P (7)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

(687 )(16868
156 )
(168
15 )

P (7)

P (7)

= 0,1873

Fh 0,1873x 40 = 7,492

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (8)

(688 )(16868
158 )
(168
15 )

P (8)

= 0,1228

P (8)

Fh 0,1228x 40 = 4,912

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (9)

(688 )(16868
158 )
(168
15 )

P (9)

= 0,061

P (9)

Fh 0,061x 40 = 2,44

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (10)

(6810 )(16868
1510 )
(168
15 )

P (10)

=0,02273

P (10)

Fh 0,908x 40 = 2,44

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (11)

(6811 )(16868
1511 )
(168
15 )

P (11)

=0,00624

P (11)

Fh 0,00624x 40 = 0,2496

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (12)

(6812 )(16868
1512 )
(168
15 )

P (12)

=0,00233398

P (12)

Fh

= 000233398 x 40 = 0,0489

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (13)

(6813 )(16868
1513 )
(168
15 )

P (13)

= 0,00016127

P (13)

Fh 0,00624x 40 = 0,0065

P (14)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

68 16868
14 1514
168
15

( )(
)
( )

P (14)

P (14)

= 0,00001280

Fh

= 0,00001280 x 40 =0,000511977

P (15)

P (15)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

(6815 )(16868
1515 )
(168
15 )

P (15)

=0,00000046

Fh

= 0,00000046 x 40 = 1,84312E-05

Sampl

Peluang

FH

e
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

0,000263
0,00312
0,0168
0,0546
0,1197
0,1874
0,2164
0,1873
0,1228
0,061
0908
0,00624
0,00122
0,00644
0,0000127
0,0000184

0,01052
0,1248
0,672
2,184
4,788
7,496
8,648
7,492
4,912
2,44
0,908
0,2496
0,0488
0,00644
0,000508
0,000736

Mesin 3

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (0)

(1540 )(218154
150 )
( 218
15 )

P (0)

= 2,86x10-9

P (x)

Fh 2,86x10-9x 40 = 6,88x10-6

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (1)

(1541 )(218154
151 )
( 218
15 )

P (1)

= 1,32x10-7

P (x)

Fh 1,32x10-7 x 40 = 5,28x10-6

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (2)

(1542 )(218154
152 )
( 218
15 )

P (2)

=2,77x10-6

P (x)

Fh 2,77x10-6x 40 = 1,108x10-5

P (x)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

(1543 )(218154
153 )
( 218
15 )

P (3)

P (3)

=3,51x10-5

Fh

= 3,51x10-5 x40 = 1,404x10-3

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (4)

(1544 )(218154
154 )
( 218
15 )

P (4)

=3x10-4

Fh

= 3x10-4x40 = 0,07344

P (x)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (5)

(1545 )(218154
155 )
( 218
15 )

P (5)

=1,836x10-3

Fh

1,836x10-3 x 40 = 7,344x10-3

P (x)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (6)

(1546 )(218154
156 )
( 218
15 )

P (6)

= 8,29x10-3

Fh

= 8,29x10-3 x 40 = 0,3316

P (x)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (7)

(1547 )(218154
157 )
( 218
15 )

P (7)

= 0,02817

Fh

= 0,02817x 40 = 1,1268

P (x)

P (x)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

(1548 )(218154
158 )
( 218
15 )

P (8)

P (8)

= 0,07265

Fh

= 0,07265x 40 = 2,906

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (9)

(1549 )(218154
159 )
( 218
15 )

P (9)

= 0,0142

Fh

= 0,0142x 40 = 5,68

P (x)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (10)

218154
(154
10 )( 1510 )
( 218
15 )

P (10)

= 0,0209

Fh

= 0,0209x40 = 8,36

P (x)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (11)

218154
(154
11 )( 1511 )
( 218
15 )

P (11)

= 0,2288

Fh

= 00,2288 x40 = 9,152

P (x)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (13)

218154
(154
)(
13
1513 )
( 218
15 )

P (13)

= 0,094

Fh

= 0,094x40 = 3,76

P (x)

P (x)

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

218154
(154
14 )( 1514 )
( 218
15 )

P (14)

P (14)

= 0,030

Fh

= 0,030x40 = 1,2

k
(kx)( Nnx
)
( Nn )

P (15)

218154
(154
15 )( 1515 )
( 218
15 )

P (15)

= 4,4x10-3

Fh

= 4,4x10-3 x40 = 0,176

P (x)

Sampl

Peluang

FH

e
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

2,86x10-9
1,32x10-7
2,77x10-6
3,51x10-5
3x10-4
1,836x10-3
8,29x10-3
0,02817
0,07265
0,0142
0,0209
0,2288
0,1287
0,094
0,030

6,88x10-6
5,28x10-6
1,108x10-5
1,404x10-3
0,07344
7,344x10-3
0,3316
1,1268
2,906
5,68
8,36
9,152
7,14
3,76
1,2

4,4x10-3

15

1.2.2

Pendekatan Binomial terhadap Hipergeometri


Mesin 1

X
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

P(x) Hipergeometri
0,0338
0,314
0,24126
0,2596
0,1871
0,0956
0,0357
0,00995
0,00207
0,00325
0,00378
0,0032
0,0019
0,0075
0,00178
0,00187

X
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

0,176

P(x) Binomial
0,0386
0,14
0,238
0,479
0,1815
0,096
0,039
0,012
2,945x10-3
5,548x10-4
3,228x10-6
8,89x10-6
7,714x10-7
4,01x10-8
1,388x10-9
2,241x10-4

Mesin 2

P(x) Hipergeometri
0,000263
0,00312
0,0168
0,0546
0,1197
0,1874
0,2164
0,1873
0,1228
0,061

P(x) Binomial
0,00041
0,00423
0,020
0,059
0,117
0,167
0,206
0,179
0,122
0,065

10
11
12
13
14
15

0908
0,00624
0,00122
0,00644
0,0000127
0,0000184

X
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

0,026
0,0082
0,00185
0,000292
0,0000284
0,00000129

Mesin 3

P(x) Hipergeometri
2,86x10-9
1,32x10-7
2,77x10-6
3,51x10-5
3x10-4
1,836x10-3
8,29x10-3
0,02817
0,07265
0,0142
0,0209
0,2288
0,1287
0,094
0,030
4,4x10-3
1.2.3

P(x) Binomial
1,059x10-8
3,818x10-7
6,42x10-6
6,677x10-5
4,81x10-4
2,54x10-3
0,01
0,0314
0,075
0,1408
0,203
0,221
0,177
0,098
0,0337
5,39x10-3

Data Percobaan
Mesin 1
F (x)
P (x) =
n

P (0) =

F (0)
40

2
40

= 0,05

P (1) =

F (1)
40

4
40

= 0,1

3
40

= 0,075

10
40

= 0,25

F (4)
P (4) = 40

6
40

= 0,15

P (5) =

F (5)
40

9
40

= 0,225

P (6) =

F (6)
40

5
40

= 0,125

P (7) =

F (7)
40

1
40

= 0,025

P (8) =

F (8)
40

0
40

=0

P (9) =

F (9)
40

0
40

=0

P (2) =

F (2)
40

F (3)
P (3) = 40

0
40

=0

F (11)
P (11) =
40

0
40

=0

P (12) =

F (12)
40

0
40

=0

P (13) =

F (13)
40

0
40

=0

P (10) =

F (10)
40

P (14) =

F (14)
40

F (15)
P (15) =
40

0
40

=0

0
40

=0

Mesin 2
P (x) =

F (x)
n

P (0) =

F (0)
40

0
40

=0

P (1) =

F (1)
40

0
40

=0

F (2)
P (2) = 40

0
40

=0

P (3) =

F (3)
40

0
40

=0

P (4) =

F (4)
40

3
40

= 0,075

P (5) =

F (5)
40

10
40

= 0,25

P (6) =

F (6)
40

10
40

= 0,25

P (7) =

F (7)
40

6
40

= 0,15

P (8) =

F (8)
40

F (9)
P (9) = 40

8
40

= 0,2

0
40

=0

2
40

= 0,05

F (11)
40

1
40

= 0,025

P (12) =

F (12)
40

0
40

=0

P (13) =

F (13)
40

0
40

=0

P (14) =

F (14)
40

0
40

=0

P (15) =

F (15)
40

0
40

=0

F (10)
P (10) =
40

P (11) =

Mesin 3
P (x) =

F (x)
n

P (0) =

F (0)
40

0
40

=0

P (1) =

F (1)
40

0
40

=0

0
40

=0

0
40

=0

F (4)
P (4) = 40

0
40

=0

P (5) =

F (5)
40

0
40

=0

P (6) =

F (6)
40

1
40

= 0,025

P (7) =

F (7)
40

1
40

= 0,025

P (8) =

F (8)
40

5
40

= 0,125

P (9) =

F (9)
40

6
40

= 0,15

P (2) =

F (2)
40

F (3)
P (3) = 40

5
40

= 0,125

F (11)
P (11) =
40

7
40

= 0,175

P (12) =

F (12)
40

10
40

= 0,25

P (13) =

F (13)
40

4
40

= 0,1

P (10) =

F (10)
40

P (14) =

F (14)
40

F (15)
P (15) =
40

14
40

= 0,025

0
40

=0

2.Distribusi Binomial
2.1

Pengambilan n=5
2.1.1

Rumus (Teoritis)

Mesin 1
P = k/N = 40/205 = 0,195
Q = 1 p = 0,805
n=5
X
0
1
2
3
4
5

Peluang (p(x))
0,338
0,409
0,198
0,048
0,0056
0,00028

Dengan menggunakan rumus :

(nx)( p) (q)
x

p(x) =

nx

unuk x = 0
p(x) =

(nx)( p) (q)

p(0) =

(50 )(0,195) (0,805)

nx

50

Frekuensi harapan (f(h))


13,52
16,37
7,92
1,92
0,224
0,0112

= (5c0) x 1 x 0.338
= 0.338
f(h) = 0,338 x 40 =13,52
untuk x = 1
p(x) =

(nx)( p) (q)

p(1) =

(51 )(0,195) (0,805)

nx

5 1

= (5c1) x 0,195 x 0,419


= 0,409
f(h) = 0,398 x 40 =16,37
untuk x = 2
p(x) =

(nx)( p) (q)

p(2) =

(52 )(0,195) (0,805)

nx

5 2

= (5c2) x 0,038 x 0.522


= 0.198
f(h) = 0,198 x 40 =7,92
untuk x = 3
p(x) =

(nx)( p) (q)

p(3) =

(53 )(0,195) (0,805)

nx

53

= (5c3) x 0,0074 x 0.648

= 0.048
f(h) = 0,048 x 40 =1,92
untuk x = 4
p(x) =

(nx)( p) (q)

p(4) =

(54 )(0,195) (0,805)

nx

54

= (5c4) x 0,0014 x 0.805


= 0.0056
f(h) = 0,0056 x 40 =0,224
untuk x = 5
p(x) =

(nx)( p) (q)

p(5) =

(55 )(0,195) (0,805)

nx

55

= (5c5) x 0,00028 x 1
= 0.00028
f(h) = 0,00028 x 40 =0,0112

Mesin 2
P = k/N = 68/168 = 0,405
q= 1 p = 0,595
n=5
X
0
1

Peluang (p(x))
0,077
0,260

Frekuensi harapan (f(h))


3,08
10,4

2
3
4
5

0,396
0,228
0,080
0,0108

Dengan menggunakan rumus :

(nx)( p) (q)
x

p(x) =

nx

unuk x = 0
p(x) =

(nx)( p) (q)

p(0) =

(50 )(0,405) (0,595)

nx

50

= (5c0) x 1 x 0,077
= 0,77
f(h) = 0,077 x 40 =3,08
untuk x = 1
p(x) =

(nx)( p) (q)

p(1) =

(51 )(0,405) (0,595)

nx

= (5c1) x 0,405 x 0,125


= 0,260
f(h) = 0,260 x 40 =10,4
untuk x = 2

(nx)( p) (q)
x

p(x) =

nx

5 1

13,84
9,12
3,2
0,432

(52 )(0,405) (0,595)


2

p(2) =

5 2

= (5c2) x 0,169 x 0,211


= 0,396
f(h) = 0,169 x 40 =13,84
untuk x = 3
p(x) =

(nx)( p) (q)

p(3) =

(53 )(0,405) (0,595)

nx

53

= (5c3) x 0,0664 x 0,354


= 0,228
f(h) = 0,228 x 40 = 9,12
untuk x = 4
p(x) =

(nx)( p) (q)

p(4) =

(54 )(0,405) (0,595)

nx

54

= (5c4) x 0,0269 x 0,595


= 0,080
f(h) = 0,080 x 40 = 3,2
untuk x = 5

(nx)( p) (q)
x

p(x) =

nx

(55 )(0,405) (0,595)


5

p(5) =

55

= (5c5) x 0,0108 x 1
= 0,0108
f(h) = 0,0108 x 40 = 0,432

Mesin 3
P = k/N = 154/218 = 0,706
q = 1 p = 0,294
n=5
X
0
1
2
3
4
5

Peluang (p(x))
0,00219
0,026
0,1245
0,304
0,073
0,1754

Dengan menggunakan rumus :

(nx)( p) (q)
x

p(x) =

nx

unuk x = 0
p(x) =

(nx)( p) (q)

p(0) =

(50 )(0,706) (0,294)

nx

50

= (5c0) x 1 x 0,00219
= 0,00219
f(h) = 0,00219 x 40 =0,0876

Frekuensi harapan (f(h))


0,0876
1,04
4,98
12,16
2,92
7,016

unuk x = 1
p(x) =

(nx)( p) (q)

p(1) =

(51 )(0,706) (0,294)

nx

51

= (5c1) x 0,706 x 0,00747


= 0,026
f(h) = 0,026 x 40 =1,04
untuk x = 2
p(x) =

(nx)( p) (q)

p(2) =

(52 )(0,706) (0,294)

nx

52

= (5c2) x 0,498 x 0,025


= 0,1245
f(h) = 0,1245 x 40 =4,98
untuk x = 3
p(x) =

(nx)( p) (q)

p(3) =

(53 )(0,706) (0,294)

nx

53

= (5c3) x 0,3519 x 0.0864


= 0,304
f(h) = 0,304 x 40 =12,16
untuk x = 4

p(x) =

(nx)( p) (q)

p(4) =

(54 )(0,706) (0,294 )

nx

5 4

= (5c4) x 0,248 x 0.294


= 0.073
f(h) = 0,073x 40 =2,92
untuk x = 5
p(x) =

(nx)( p) (q)

p(5) =

(55 )(0,706) (0,294)

nx

55

= (5c5) x 0,1754x 1
= 0.1754
f(h) = 0,1754x 40 =7,016

2.1.2

Pendekatan Normal terhadap Binomial

Mesin 1
N = 205, k = 40, dan x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
p= 0.2

q= 1-0,2 = 0,8

Rata-rata (
Variansi (

) = np = 5(0,2) = 1

) = npq =5(0,2)(0,8) = 0,8


0.8

Deviasi ( )=
=0,89
Z1

( x 0,5) np
npq

Z2

( x 0,5) np
npq

| P || PZ 1 PZ 2 |

Untuk terambil cacat (x) = 0


(0 0,5) 1
1,68
0,894
Z1 =
PZ1 = 0,0465
(0 0,5) 1
0,56
0,894

Z2 =
PZ2 = 0,2877
|P(0)| = | 0,28770,0465 | = 0,2412
F(0) = 0,241 x 40 = 9,648
X
0
1
2
3
4
5

Z1
-1,68
-0,56
0,56
1,68
2,80
3,91

Z2
-0,56
0,56
1,68
2,80
3,91
5,03

PZ1
0,0465
0,2877
0,7123
0,9535
0,9974
1

PZ2
0,2877
0,7123
0,9535
0,9974
1
1

|P|
0,2412
0,4246
0,2412
0,0439
0,0026
0

Mesin 2
N = 168, k = 68, dan x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
p= 0.4

q= 1-0,4 = 0,6

Rata-rata (
Variansi (
Deviasi (

) = np = 5 (0,4) = 2
) = npq =5 (0,4) (0,6) = 1,2

1,2
)=

=0,09

Fh
9,648
16,984
9,648
1,756
0,104
0

Z1

Z2

( x 0,5) np
npq

( x 0,5) np
npq

| P || PZ 1 PZ 2 |

Untuk terambilnya cacat (x) = 0


(0 0,5) 2
2,28
0,0954
Z1 =
PZ1 = 0,0113
(0 0,5) 2
1,37
0,0954

Z2 =
PZ2 = 0,0853
|P(0)| = 0,08530,0113

= 0,074

F(0) = 0,074 x 40 = 2,96

X
0
1
2
3
4
5

Z1
-2,28
-1,37
-0,46
0,46
1,37
2,28

Z2
-1,37
-0,46
0,46
1,37
2,28
3,20

PZ1
0,0113
0,0853
0,3228
0,6772
0,9147
0,9887

Mesin 3
N = 218, k = 154, dan x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
p= 0.7
Rata-rata (

q= 1-0,7 = 0,3

) = np = 5(0,7) = 3,5

PZ2
0,0853
0,3228
0,6772
0,9147
0,9887
0,9993

|P|
0,074
0,2375
0,3544
0,2375
0,074
0,0106

Fh
2,96
9,5
14,176
9,5
2,96
0,424

Variansi (

) = npq =5(0,7)(0,3) = 1,05

1,05

Deviasi ( )=
=1,024
( x 0,5) np

npq
Z=

Z1

Z2

( x 0,5) np
npq

( x 0,5) np
npq

| P || PZ 1 PZ 2 |

Untuk terambilnya cacat (x) = 0


(0 0,5) 3,5
3,90
1,024
Z1 =
PZ1 = 0
(0 0,5) 3,5
2,93
1,024

Z2 =
PZ2 = 0,0017
|P(0)| = 0,00170 = 0,0017
F(0) = 0,0017x 40 = 0.068

X
0
1
2
3
4
5

Z1
-3,90
-2,93
-1,95
-0,98
0,00
0,98

Z2
-2,93
-1,95
-0,98
0,00
0,98
1,95

PZ1
0
0,0017
0,0256
0,1635
0,5
0,8365

PZ2
0,0017
0,0256
0,1635
0,5
0,8365
0.9744

|P|
0,0017
0,0239
0,1379
0,3365
0,3365
0,1379

Fh
0,068
0,956
5,516
13,46
13,46
5,516

2.2

Pengambilan n =15
2.2.1

Rumus (Teoritis)
Mesin 1

Sampl

Peluang

FH

e
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

0,0386
0,14
0,238
0,479
0,1815
0,096
0,039
0,012
2,945x10-3
5,548x10-4
3,228x10-6
8,89x10-6
7,714x10-7
4,01x10-8
1,388x10-9
2,241x10-4

X
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

1,544
5,6
9,52
132,24
7,26
3,84
1,56
0,48
0,1178
0,022
3,228x10-3
3,556x10-4
2,869x10-5
1,603,10-6
5,552x10-8
8,96x10-10

Mesin 2

Peluang (p(x))
0,00041
0,00423
0,020
0,059
0,117
0,167
0,206
0,179
0,122
0,065
0,026
0,0082
0,00185
0,000292
0,0000284
0,00000129

Frekuensi harapan (f(h))


0,0164
0,1692
0,8
2,36
4,68
6,68
8,24
7,16
4,88
2,6
1,04
0,328
0,074
0,01168
0,00136
0,0000516

Mesin 3

Sampl

Peluang

FH

e
1,059x10-8
3,818x10-7
6,42x10-6
6,677x10-5
4,81x10-4
2,54x10-3
0,01
0,0314
0,075
0,1408
0,203
0,221
0,177
0,098
0,0337
5,39x10-3

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
2.2.2

4,236x10-7
1,5272x10-5
2,568x10-4
2,6708x10-3
0,01924
0,1016
0,4
1,256
3
5,632
8,12
8,84
7,08
3,92
1,348
0,2156

Pendekatan Normal terhadap Binomial

Mesin 1
N = 205, k = 40, dan x = 0, 1, 2, 3, , 15
p= 0.2
q= 1-0,2 = 0,8
=np = (15) (0.2) = 3

= npq (15)(0.2)(0.8)=2.4

= 2.4 = 1.55
Z1

( x 0,5) np
npq

Z2

( x 0,5) np
npq

Z 1=

( 00.5 )3 3.5
=
=2.26
1.55
1.55

PZ1 = 0.0119
( 0+0.5 )3 2.5
Z 2=
=
=1.61
1.55
1.55
PZ2 = 0.0537
| P || PZ 1 PZ 2 |

= 0.0537-0.0119
= 0.0418
F(0) = |P| x 40
= 0.0418 x 40
= 1.672
X
0

Z1
-2.26

Z2
-1.61

PZ1
0.0119

PZ2
0.0537

|P|
0.0418

Fh
1.672

-1.61

-0.97

0.0537

0.1660

0.1123

4.492

-0.97

-0.32

0.1660

0.3745

0.2085

8.34

-0.32

0.32

0.3745

0.6255

0.2510

10.04

0.32

0.97

0.6255

0.8340

0.2085

8.34

0.97

1.61

0.8340

0.9463

0.1123

4.492

1.61

2.26

0.9463

0.9881

0.0418

1.672

2.26

2.90

0.9881

0.9981

0.0100

0.4

2.90

3.55

0.9981

0.0019

0.076

3.55

4.19

10

4.19

4.84

11

4.84

5.48

12

5.48

6.13

13

6.13

6.77

14

6.77

7.42

15

7.42

8.06

Mesin 2

N = 168, k = 68, dan x = 0, 1, 2, 3, , 15


p= 0.4

q= 1-0,4 = 0,6
=np = (15) (0.4) = 6

= npq (15)(0.4)(0.6)=3.6

= 3.6 = 1.90
Z1

( x 0,5) np
npq

Z2

( x 0,5) np
npq

Z 1=

( 00.5 )6 6.5
=
=3.42
1.90
1.90

PZ1 = 0.0003
Z 2=

( 0+0.5 )6 5.5
=
=2.89
1.90
1.90

PZ2 = 0.0019
| P || PZ 1 PZ 2 |

= |0.0019-0.0003|
= 0.0016
F(0) = |P| x 40
= 0.0016 x 40
= 0.064
X
0

Z1
-3.42

Z2
-2.89

PZ1
0.0003

PZ2
0.0019

|P|
0.0016

Fh
0.064

-2.89

-2.37

0.0019

0.0089

0.0070

0.28

-2.37

-1.84

0.0089

0.0329

0.0240

0.96

-1.84

-1.32

0.0329

0.0934

0.0605

2.42

-1.32

-0.79

0.0934

0.2148

0.1214

4.856

-0.79

-0.26

0.2148

0.3974

0.1826

7.304

-0.26

0.26

0.3974

0.6026

0.2052

8.208

0.26

0.79

0.6026

0.7852

0.1826

7.304

0.79

1.32

0.7852

0.9066

0.1214

4.856

1.32

1.84

0.9066

0.9671

0.0605

2.42

10

1.84

2.37

0.9671

0.9911

0.0240

0.96

11

2.37

2.89

0.9911

0.9981

0.0070

0.28

12

2.89

3.42

0.9981

0.9997

0.0016

0.064

13

3.42

3.95

0.9997

0.0003

0.012

14

3.95

4.47

15

4.47

Mesin 3
N = 218, k = 154, dan x = 0, 1, 2, 3, , 15
p= 0.7

q= 1-0,7 = 0,3
=np = (15) (0.7) = 10.5

= npq (15)(0.7)(0.3)=3.15

= 3.15 = 1.77
Z1

Z2

( x 0,5) np
npq

( x 0,5) np
npq

Z 1=

( 00.5 )10.5 11
=
=6.21
1.77
1.77

PZ1 = 0
( 0+0.5 )10.5 10
Z 2=
=
=5.65
1.77
1.77
PZ2 = 0

| P || PZ 1 PZ 2 |

= |0 - 0|
=0
F(0) = |P| x 40
= 0 x 40
=0
X
0

Z1
-6.21

Z2
-5.65

PZ1
0

PZ2
0

|P|
0

Fh
0

-5.65

-5.08

-5.08

-4.52

-4.52

-3.95

-3.95

-3.39

0.0003

0.0003

0.0120

-3.39

-2.82

0.0003

0.0024

0.0021

0.0840

-2.82

-2.26

0.0024

0.0119

0.0095

0.3800

-2.26

-1.69

0.0119

0.0455

0.0336

1.3440

-1.69

-1.13

0.0455

0.1292

0.0837

3.3480

-1.13

-0.56

0.1292

0.2877

0.1585

6.3400

10

-0.56

0.00

0.2877

0.5

0.2123

8.4920

11

0.00

0.56

0.5

0.7123

0.2123

8.4920

12

0.56

1.13

0.7123

0.8708

0.1585

6.3400

13

1.13

1.69

0.8708

0.9545

0.0837

3.3480

14

1.69

2.26

0.9545

0.9881

0.0336

1.3440

15

2.26

2.82

0.9881

0.9976

0.0095

0.38

2.2.3

Data Percobaan

Mesin 1
P (x) =

F (x)
n

1
40

= 0,025

F (1)
P (1) = 40

3
40

= 0,075

P (2) =

F (2)
40

6
40

= 0,15

P (3) =

F (3)
40

15
40

= 0,375

P (4) =

F (4)
40

8
40

= 0,2

P (5) =

F (5)
40

4
40

= 0,1

P (6) =

F (6)
40

1
40

= 0,025

P (7) =

F (7)
40

2
40

= 0,05

F (8)
P (8) = 40

0
40

=0

F (9)
40

0
40

=0

F (0)
P (0) = 40

P (9) =

P (10) =

F (10)
40

0
40

=0

0
40

=0

0
40

=0

F (13)
P (13) =
40

0
40

=0

P (14) =

F (14)
40

0
40

=0

P (15) =

F (15)
40

0
40

=0

P (11) =

F (11)
40

F (12)
P (12) =
40

Mesin 2
F (x)
P (x) =
n

P (0) =

F (0)
40

0
40

=0

P (1) =

F (1)
40

0
40

=0

P (2) =

F (2)
40

0
40

=0

P (3) =

F (3)
40

2
40

= 0,05

P (4) =

F (4)
40

6
40

= 0,15

6
40

= 0,15

13
40

= 0,325

F (7)
P (7) = 40

7
40

= 0,175

P (8) =

F (8)
40

2
40

= 0,05

P (9) =

F (9)
40

2
40

= 0,05

P (5) =

F (5)
40

F (6)
P (6) = 40

P (10) =

F (10)
40

1
40

= 0,025

P (11) =

F (11)
40

1
40

= 0,025

P (12) =

F (12)
40

0
40

=0

P (13) =

F (13)
40

0
40

=0

F (14)
P (14) =
40

0
40

=0

F (15)
40

0
40

=0

P (15) =

Mesin 3

P (x) =

F (x)
n

0
40

=0

F (1)
P (1) = 40

0
40

=0

P (2) =

F (2)
40

0
40

=0

P (3) =

F (3)
40

0
40

=0

P (4) =

F (4)
40

0
40

=0

P (5) =

F (5)
40

0
40

=0

P (6) =

F (6)
40

0
40

=0

P (7) =

F (7)
40

2
40

= 0,05

F (8)
P (8) = 40

4
40

= 0,1

F (9)
40

7
40

= 0,175

F (0)
P (0) = 40

P (9) =

P (10) =

F (10)
40

9
40

= 0,225

9
40

= 0,225

7
40

= 0,175

F (13)
P (13) =
40

2
40

= 0,05

P (14) =

F (14)
40

0
40

=0

P (15) =

F (15)
40

0
40

=0

P (11) =

F (11)
40

F (12)
P (12) =
40