RRH Elections Vermont Poll: Phil Scott (R) leads Sue Minter (D)

45-38 for Governor

Clinton leads Trump 52-26; tight race for Lt. Governor
Sanders would lead 5-way Presidential race if he ran as Independent
Ahead of this years general election, a new poll from RRH Elections of 1052 likely voters in Vermont
shows Lt. Governor Phil Scott (R) with a significant lead in the race for Vermont Governor. The survey
shows Scott leading former State Rep. and Gov. Shumlin cabinet secretary Sue Minter (D) by a margin of
45% to 38%, with former Red Sox pitcher Bill Spaceman Lee, running on the Liberty Union Party ticket,
at 4%. Scott turns in strong performances with men, older voters, and voters in northern Vermont, while
the race is close with other demographics. The poll also shows that Vermont is non-competitive in the
presidential race, with Hillary Clinton (D) leading Donald Trump (R) by a margin of 52% to 26%, with
other candidates in the single digits. Additionally, the survey shows a very tight race for Vermonts Lt.
Governor position, with State Sen. David Zuckerman (D) leading former State Auditor Randy Brock (R) by
just one point, 40% to 39%. Finally, had Bernie Sanders run this year as an Independent, the poll shows
he would have easily won his home state, as he outpaces both Clinton and Trump by a margin of two to
one. The survey was conducted between October 24 and 26, 2016. It was conducted with 699 IVR calls
and 353 online surveys, and has a margin of error of +/- 3%. RRH Elections is a group of volunteer
hobbyist bloggers that has no connection to any candidate or organization active in this race. This poll
was funded by donations from the readers of our blog. Please visit us at http://rrhelections.com.

Topline Results:
President:
Hillary Clinton (D)
Donald Trump (R)
Gary Johnson (L)
Jill Stein (G)
Undecided

52%
26%
5%
2%
15%

Governor:
Phil Scott (R)
Sue Minter (D)
Bill Lee (LU)
Undecided

45%
38%
4%
13%

Lieutenant Governor:
Zuckerman (D)
Brock (R)
Wardinski (LU)
Undecided

40%
39%
1%
20%

Presidential Race if Sanders ran as an Independent:

Sanders (I)
Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)
Stein (G)
Undecided

42%
22%
20%
2%
1%
13%

Demographics:
Data Collection Method:
IVR Polling (PMI) 70%
Online Polling (Google Surveys) 30%
Voting:
Already voted: 23%
Likely to vote: 77%
Age:
18-44 32%
45-64 39%
65+ 30%
Gender:
Male: 48%
Female: 52%
Geography:
Burlington Metro (Chittenden County) 24%
Northern VT (Caledonia, Essex, Franklin, Grand Isle, Lamoille, Orleans, Washington) 31%
Southern VT (Addison, Bennington, Orange, Rutland, Windham, Windsor) 45%

Crosstabs:
Demographics
Male
Female
18-44
45-64
65+
Met. Burlington
Northern VT
Southern VT

Clinton
41%
60%
49%
55%
50%
58%
49%
51%

Demographics
Male
Female
18-44
45-64
65+
Metro Burlington
Northern VT
Southern VT

President/Governor
Clinton
Trump
Undecided

Scott (R)
49%
43%
33%
47%
54%
41%
61%
45%

Scott (R)
23%
90%
64%

Trump
33%
21%
18%
28%
26%
20%
31%
25%

Minter (D)
31%
45%
40%
39%
36%
43%
27%
41%

Minter (D)
65%
3%
6%

Johnson
8%
3%
8%
4%
5%
5%
4%
7%

Stein
3%
1%
2%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%

Lee (LU)
6%
2%
6%
4%
2%
2%
2%
4%

Lee (LU)
2%
2%
4%

Undecided
14%
15%
22%
10%
16%
15%
14%
15%

Undecided
13%
12%
21%
10%
8%
14%
11%
10%

Undecided
10%
5%
26%

Methodology:
All survey design and data analysis was conducted by RRH Elections, while other firms were employed to
collect the data. This survey was conducted using two separate methodologies. First, IVR calls were
placed by PMI Inc. of Marianna, Fla., to 699 landline numbers of Vermont voters who voted in two of
the last three general elections. Additionally, a Google Surveys platform was used to survey an
additional 353 randomly-selected online respondents; the demographic data was gleaned from Googles
algorithm instead of direct user response. Due to weighting, the Google Surveys data makes up slightly
less (30%) of the sample data than its proportion of respondents. Both methods were conducted
simultaneously from October 24-26, 2016. Those who attested that they were unlikely to vote in this
years general election were not included in the survey from either platform. Respondents that did not
answer a polling question were marked as undecided; respondents who did not answer a demographic
weighting question had their demographics determined as best as possible from the voter file. The poll
was weighted for age and gender; random deletion was not used as a method of weighting.

About RRH Elections:

RRH Elections is a Republican-leaning Elections Blog that discusses electoral politics, not policy, with
particular attention to congressional and state races. We cover electoral news daily and provide insight
into the electoral landscape. Using our in-house expertise, we have produced seven polls, five of which
have predicted the margin in their races to within three points. RRH Elections is run by a team of 8
unpaid hobbyists, all with no connection to any candidate or group active in this race. Funding for this
poll comes entirely from the donations of our readers. If you enjoyed this poll, please visit our site and
donate so that we may bring you more surveys like it in the future. Our site can be found at
http://rrhelections.com.
To contact us for comments or questions about this poll, the best way is by email at
rrhelections@gmail.com. You may also leave a message for our polling director at 410-750-6220;
however, responses will be much quicker when submitting questions or comments by email.

Appendix: Poll Script for IVR

There is a general election coming up on November 8th. How likely are you to vote in it?
Press 1 if you have already voted
Press 2 if you have not yet voted, but are likely to do so
Press 3 if you are not likely to vote
Which candidate for President are you most likely to vote for?
Press 1 if you are most likely to vote for Democrat Hillary Clinton
Press 2 if you are most likely to vote for Republican Donald Trump
Press 3 if you are most likely to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson
Press 4 if you are most likely to vote for Green Jill Stein
Press 5 if you are totally undecided
Which candidate for Governor of Vermont are you most likely to vote for?
Press 1 if you are most likely to vote for Democrat Sue Minter
Press 2 if you are most likely to vote for Republican Phil Scott
Press 3 if you are most likely to vote for Liberty Union Party candidate Bill Lee
Press 4 if you are totally undecided
Which candidate for Lieutenant Governor of Vermont are you most likely to vote for?
Press 1 if you are most likely to vote for Democrat David Zuckerman
Press 2 if you are most likely to vote for Republican Randy Brock
Press 3 if you are most likely to vote for Liberty Union Party candidate Boots Wardinski
Press 4 if you are totally undecided
For statistical purposes, please let us know your age:
Press 1 if you are 18 to 44
Press 2 if you are 45 to 64
Press 3 if you are 65 plus
For statistical purposes, please let us know your gender:
Press 1 if you are male
Press 2 if you are female
In a hypothetical presidential featuring the four major candidates and Senator Bernie Sanders running as an Independent, how would you most
likely vote?
Press 1 if you would most likely vote for Democrat Hillary Clinton
Press 2 if you would most likely vote for Republican Donald Trump
Press 3 if you would most likely vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson
Press 4 if you would most likely vote for Green Jill Stein
Press 5 if you would most likely vote for Independent Bernie Sanders
Press 6 if you would be totally undecided