22nd ITS World Congress, Bordeaux, France, 59 October 2015

Paper number ITS-2635

Determining the validity time of real time traffic data.

Method evaluation.
Valentin IORDACHE1, Ciprian Angel CORMO2, Ilona Madalina COSTEA3,
Claudiu Virgil BANU4
1. Politehnica University of Bucharest, Romania, 313 Splaiul Independentei, Bucharest,
+40788296167, valentin.iordache@upb.ro
2. Politehnica University of Bucharest, Romania
3. Politehnica University of Bucharest, Romania
4. Politehnica University of Bucharest, Romania

Abstract
Establishing accurate travel routes as required by the drivers requires the use of real-time
traffic data, transmitted through various communication systems. This paper presents a
method for determining the validity time of such data in situations where communication
systems are no longer available and the vehicle is no longer able to update them, based on
estimated traffic data for the route set, an algorithm for implementing the method and its
application on a case study.
KEYWORDS
Traffic data, algorithm, travel time.
Introduction
Real-time traffic data (RTTD) gives an actual image on road traffic and they are increasingly
more useful in various areas of intelligent transport systems. These data are collected by
sensor networks and transmitted to the road users in a time as short as possible. This is done
using various communication systems that connects vehicles with traffic information centers
(Ying et al, 2008). Today there are many systems that use RTTD, the best of them being
TomTom HD Traffic (TomTom, n.d.), Google Live Traffic (Jeske, 2013), iGO with Free Live
Traffic (NavNGo, 2010), and NAVTEQ Traffic RDS. All of these systems use dynamic data
when available and static data otherwise.
Estimated traffic data (ETD) is calculated based on historical traffic data and provide and

Determining the validity time of real time traffic data. Method evaluation.

anticipate traffic conditions for different periods of time (minutes, hours, days, weeks or even
years). Depending on the performance of the systems that analyze historical data and provide
estimates it can be included not only traffic information but also other factors that contribute
to their modification, such as day of week, holidays, seasons, weather conditions, traffic
incidents, school schedules, sports matches or music concerts.
A combination of real-time traffic data with historical traffic data can be used to develop an
optimal vehicle routing (Kim et al, 2005), but it is important to know if RTTD can be used
and for how long, even after it is not available.
For intercity travel routes the problem of determining an optimal route based on traffic data is
complicated. The route chosen is usually long, the travel time is large, relative to the periods
during which traffic parameters change significantly, or there may be situations where, along
the route, the vehicle does not have access to RTTD. Therefore, routing is done by using both
types of traffic data (RTTS and ETD). The RTTD can be used for a limited part of the route
when they are available, for the rest of the route it is necessary to use ETD.
If not updated, RTTD can still be used for a certain period of time which may be fixed or
variable, depending on the time of day when they are accessed last. This is the validity time of
the RTTD and it can be defined as the period of time during when traffic data values will
remain below a certain required variation, representing a confidence level of the RTTD. Its
value is determined by analyzing historical data characterizing the entire route and imposing a
maximum variation of the analyzed traffic parameter for the chosen period of time (for
example, travel time should not vary by more than 5%, or more than 5 minutes). The
validity time is fixed if the smallest value as determined by the analysis is chosen, or may be
variable, depending on the point in time when RTTD is accessed. Further it will be provided a
way of determining its value.
Determination of the validity time
Determination will be based on a method presented in (Iordache, 2012). For each route a data
base table with traffic data will be used containing values of average travel times (Tt) for
different times of day (t) for which the respective travel times are valid. The data analysis
process includes the following steps:
1.

A data base column named Minimum value will contain calculated travel times
reduced by the percentage of n% (Tt-min) for each ti.
Tt-min(ti) = Tt(ti) Tt(ti)n/100

2.

(1)

A data base column named Maximum value will contain calculated travel times
increased by a rate of n% (Tt-max), for each ti.
Tt-max(ti) = Tt(ti) + Tt(ti)n/100
(2)
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Determining the validity time of real time traffic data. Method evaluation.

3.

A data base column named Validity time will contain values for validity time for
each time point.
for each value of the average travel time Tt(ti) the table will be explored, in
chronological order (ti+1, ti+2, ... , tj), until one of the conditions below will be
fulfilled (when the average travel time exceeds the margin allowed, n%):
Tt(tj) Tt-min(ti) or Tt(tj) Tt-max(ti)
(3)
the value for the validity time of Tt at the time ti is:
tv = tj - ti

(4)

The validity time for the whole route can be obtained by applying an algorithm on the data.
The logical diagram of the proposed algorithm for determining the validity time is shown in
Figure 1.

Fig. 1. Logical diagram of the algorithm for determining the validity time
The pseudo code of the proposed algorithm is as follows:
Start
Select t T
ti := t
Execute ti := ti + 1 until Tt(ti) Tt-min(t) or Tt(ti) Tt-max(t)
tv = t + ti
End
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Determining the validity time of real time traffic data. Method evaluation.

Case study and results

We have chosen to present one case study for one travel route with available travel time tables,
imposing a travel time variation of less than 5% over which it is considered that DTTR are
not valid anymore. The source of data is the California Department of Transportation
Caltrans (PEMS, n.d.).
Characteristics of selected route are:
o Route: D07 Los Angeles-Thousand Oaks
o Length: 41 miles
o Start: 101-N/Los Angeles St
o Destination: 101-N/Moorpark Rd
o Period: 01.05.2013 - 31.05.2013, weekdays
o Traffic data update period: 5 minutes
o Hours: 0:00 to 11:55 p.m.
Figure 2 shows the evolution of the average travel times during a day, as resulted from the
available travel time tables. It is clearly observed that two peak periods of traffic are present,
one in the morning and one in the afternoon, characterized by a pronounced increase and
decrease travel times in a relatively short period of time, between hours 7 and 9, respectively
15 and 19.

Fig. 2. Average travel time for the chosen route

After running the algorithm the validity time was obtained and can be seen in Figure 3.
Minimum and maximum values for the validity times were 10min for the morning peak time,
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Determining the validity time of real time traffic data. Method evaluation.

15min for the afternoon peak time and 9h 55min.

Fig. 3. Validity time for the chosen route

Compared to the two peak periods, the following observations can be made regarding the
characteristics and changes of the validity times:
Validity times have a sudden increase to very high values and a pronounced decrease
approximately linearly from the time of conclusion of a peak period and up to the start
of the next, due to the reduction in traffic. This is the period when DTTR receive the
highest level of confidence.
The same sudden increase, but to much smaller values, have the validity times when
peak traffic is approaching a maximum (hours 5:30 to 9:40 and 14:25 to 20:00),
followed by a drop just as low due to traffic calming and gradual decrease in the
number of vehicles. Validity times can reach values of hours but DTTR confidence
level is however low due to traffic instability.
Therefore, due to the large and unexpected traffic variations in peak hours, we propose the use
of a flat value for the validity time over that periods, for the case presented being 10 minutes
for the morning peak hour and 15 minutes for the afternoon peak hour, even though it may
increase relatively more than that value. Outside peak periods we can establish linear
functions describing the validity times.
tv = f(t) = a - bt

(5)

Coefficients a and b are a characteristic of the road segment, being obtained by using the
calculated validity times for the start and end times of each peak periods separately.
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Determining the validity time of real time traffic data. Method evaluation.

As a result, it can be seen in Figure 4 the validity time generalization for the chosen route.

Fig. 4. Generalized validity time for the chosen route

Method evaluation
The results of the proposed method will be evaluated by comparison against travel time
values for the same period of the years 2014 and 2015.
In figure 5 average travel times are presented for comparison, between 01.05 - 31.05 (2013,
2014 and 2015), on weekdays.

Fig. 5. Average travel time for the chosen route (2013 to 2015)
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Determining the validity time of real time traffic data. Method evaluation.

It can be seen that 2014 was caracterised by a major increase in travel times during the peak
periods, suggesting that the proposed generalized validity time will not be appropriate. In
2015 travel times were mostly the same, except for a small increase, few hours before the
afternoon peak hour. Both years travel times will determine slight increase in peak periods,
requiring adjustment of the generalized validity time.
In figure 6 the differences between calculated validity times for the three years can be
observed, confirming that the generalized validity time calculated with data from 2013 need
to be adjusted.

Fig. 6. Validity time for the chosen route (2013 to 2015)

To correct the generalized validity time we need to highlight the errors generated, by
comparison with calculated validity time for the years 2014 and 2015, results being
represented in Figure 7.

Determining the validity time of real time traffic data. Method evaluation.

Fig. 7. Errors between proposed generalized validity time and calculated validity time for
the chosen route (2024 and 2015)
Negative errors mean that generalized validity time was less than calculated validity time, and
can be ignored because either they are small in value or because they occur during peak
periods, where a small flat value was proposed for the generalized validity time and it is
normal to have significant negative differences.
Positive errors mean that generalized validity time was bigger than calculated validity time
and, if they occur during outside of peak periods, they need to be corrected. Two cases like
this are visible in Figure 7. One during mid-day period and one at the beginning of the
evening period. For the first case the applicable solution will be to reduce the peak value of
the generalized validity time (the one that appear in Figure 7 around 9:45) according to the
validity time calculated for 2015. For the second case, the solution will be to extend the
afternoon peak hour validity time flat value (of 15 minutes) until 20:30.

Determining the validity time of real time traffic data. Method evaluation.

Fig. 8. Errors between adjusted generalized validity time and calculated validity time for
the chosen route (2024 and 2015)
As it can be seen in Figure 8, after applying stated corrections, positive errors have been
minimized, the new generalized validity time being closer to reality.
Conclusions
In this paper the authors presented a method for determining the validity time of the Real
Time Traffic Data so that they can be used, for a short period of time, even when can no
longer be updated. This way, in vehicle navigation systems could provide information closer
to reality, and could determine optimal travel routes and travel times with better accuracy.
The method is based on historical traffic data and creates a time profile for a specific route.
For this reason, the generalized validity time resulted may need to be corrected when new
historical data is available.
For higher accuracy, lower traffic data update period will be necessary, as the 5 minutes
update period used by the data provider (PEMS, n.d.) can induce bigger errors for shorter
travel routes.

Determining the validity time of real time traffic data. Method evaluation.

Acknowledgements
The work has been funded by the Sectoral Operational Programme Human Resources
Development 2007-2013 of the Ministry of European Funds through the Financial Agreement
POSDRU/159/1.5/S/134398.
References
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