Kaity Liao

Population, Resources & Environment

Professor Clark
November 19, 2015
MALAWI
Malawi is located in Africa, more specifically Southeastern Africa. It is a relatively small,
landlocked country. Its neighboring countries are Zambia to the West, Mozambique to the South and
East, and Tanzania to the Northeast. Malawi stretches along Lake Nyasa, also known as Lake
Malawi, for 560 miles along its North-South border. Most of Lake Malawi belongs to Malawi; the
lake also runs into the borders of Tanzania and Mozambique. Lake Malawi is the countrys most
remarkable feature as it contains the most fish species than any other lake on Earth. Its topography
includes narrow, elongated plateaus with rolling plains, rounded hills, and some mountains. Its
climate is sub-tropical and endures a rainy season from November to May and a dry season from
May to November. Malawi faces many challenges. Among them is deforestation; water pollution
from agricultural runoff, sewage, industrial wastes; siltation which endangers fish populations.
According to the 2015 World Data Sheet, Malawis population in mid-2015 is 17.2 million. Its
total area is 45,747 square miles; 36,324 square miles of land and 9,422 square miles of water.
Compared to the world out of 196 countries, it ranks 100 for size, which equates to a size slightly
smaller than the state of Pennsylvania in the United States.
Malawis population density is 474.7 people per square mile. In comparison to the world average
of 137.27 people per square mile, MDCs average population density is 59.57, and LDC average is
186.48, Malawi exceeds all of the aforementioned in regards to population density as being
extremely densely populated; Malawi is almost 3.5 times denser than the world average; compared
to LDCs, Malawi is 2.55 times denser. Africa does not have a space problem, but it has a problem
with resources and population growth. Since the majority live in rural areas, families may become
clustered, such that each family would not have their own land or patches of land.
The global standard for an urbanized area is anywhere with a population over 2,000 people.
Currently, Malawi is 16% urban, which one may deduce that 84% reside in a rural area. In Malawi,
this translates to approximately 2.752 million inhabitants residing in an urban area. When a society is
mostly rural, this affects population because historically, rural societies have more children than
urbanites. Current data provided from the 2015 World Population data sheet reveal that the world is
53% urban; LDCs are 48% urban. Even Africa as a whole is 40% urban. These numbers reflect that
Malawi is extremely slow to urbanize, even compared to its own continent, with respect to
modernization and industrialization. Traditionally in the past, Malawi has been slow to advance with
urbanization.
In 1980, Malawi was 9% urban. In the same year, the world was 39% urban; LDCs were
29% urban. To further demonstrate how slow Malawi is urbanizing, Malawi is urbanizing almost
half as slow (45% slower) than LDCs if the 1980s % urban (29%) is applied to Malawis current
percent urban (16%). Malawi has two major cities, Lilongwe and Blantyre. The capital of Malawi is
Lilongwe, which has 821,000 inhabitants in 2009. Also in 2009, the city of Blantyre had a
population of 856,000. In 2011, 15.7% of its population resides in these areas. The estimated rate of

urbanization between 2010-2015 is 4.2% annually. Although there may be more equality amongst
Malawians since most are still residing in rural areas and remain unexposed to urban life,
urbanization can cause oppression and inequality since this process would define the elite. These
mortality rates reveal that Malawians are struggling to survive, and unfortunately, facing more
afflictions than an average person in an LDC.
Inferring from the provided information, the majority of the population are residing in rural
areas, due to a more pronounced interest with agriculture and other labor-intensive industries. These
industries may play contribute to mortality conditions, as discussed later. For example, being out in
the sun all day to tend to agricultural duties can exacerbate health and mortality conditions. Where
the vast majority chooses to reside govern that their culture is more based in agriculture, as children
serve as their source for labor. Civilizations naturally occur by bodies of water in order to sustain
life, and perhaps convenient for trade with its neighbors, so population would be denser by Lake
Malawi. Urban areas would have more accessibility to resources to accommodate populations, such
as clinics or hospitals and other technologies to enhance life; consequently, rural areas continue to
become marginalized for healthcare.
Malawi is comprised of multiple ethnic groups. Chewa is the predominant ethnic group at
32.6%; Lomwe 17.6%; Yao 13.5%; Ngoni 11.5%; Tumbuka 8.8%; Nyanja 5.8%; Sena 3.6%; Tonga
2.1%; Ngonde 1%; other 3.5%. Information on race was not provided, probably because it is a poor
country, so they do not have funds to track this information. Nevertheless, in terms of religious
composition, 82.6% are Christian, 13% are Muslim, 1.9% fall under other religions, and 3.5% are
not religious. There are probably a lot of religious institutions and church buildings for religious
practice. The notion of large families could be promoted from religions to spread the faith in order to
have a larger following from the previous generation.
Christianity was brought over from the British when they colonized, which may have obliterated
some Malawians traditions. Religion could play a role with a societys norms and moral compass,
such as health habits, sexual behavior, and reproductive behavior. With almost 83% Christian, one
may assume that Malawians have become somewhat Westernized, as well as some influence from
Muslim culture. These factors indicate that Malawians are capable of some influences from the
outside world.
The median age in Malawi is 16.3 years. 44% or 7,568,000 people are less than 15 years old; 3%
or 516,000 people are over 65 years old. Older Malawians do not live that long; they are susceptible
to illnesses and ailments, so they inevitably die young. This shows that Malawi lacks from
improvements in health and sanitation. From this data, the calculated dependency ratio in Malawi is
88.7 on the working age. This is relatively high dependency ratio, indicating that the working age in
Malawi faces a significant burden on supporting the aging population. The dependency ratio also
emphasizes how young the population is in Malawi. Since 44% of its population is less than 15 years
of age, many would still be in their reproductive years, so population will continue to grow more
rapidly than the world and LDCS. Malawi also fulfills the counterintuitive trend that poorer
countries have more children than more affluent countries, thus, the historical trend of high fertility
would persist into the near future.

TABLE: Mortality
CDR per 1000 population
IMR per 1000 live births
(1970-2014)

2015 e0
World Population Data
Sheet. 2015
HIV/AIDS among people
ages 15-24, by gender
HIV/AIDS among people
ages 15-49
Lifetime risk of maternal
death (1 in x)
Child Mortality Rate

Malawi
11

World
8

LDC
7

53

37

40

Both sexes: 61
Male: 60
Female: 62

Both sexes: 71
Male: 69
Female: 73

Both sexes: 69
Male: 68
Female: 72

Male: 2.4%
Female: 4.1%
10%

(n/a)

(n/a)

0.8%

(n/a)

36

180

(n/a)

1960: 365
2000: 188

(n/a)

(n/a)

Crude death rate (CDR), is the number of deaths per every 1,000 populations. A rough, but a
useful measure, CDRs are the most commonly seen mortality measure. Malawis age structure is a
lot younger, so that specific population would endure higher risks of dying.
Life expectancy (e0) and infant mortality rate, (IMR), are better measures since they serve as
barometers for quality of life. IMR measures deaths of infants within the first year of life. Life
expectancy indicates what would happen if current mortality conditions remained the same, in order to
calculate ones life span at birth. Malawis IMR is about 5.3% of newborns die before their first
birthday; the world is at 3.7%; and LDCs are 4%. As data suggests, mortality conditions and standards
of living in Malawi are consistently much worse than the world and LDCs. Its higher mortality rates
could indicate periods of famine or malnutrition; poor healthcare, especially for women; and high child
mortality. HIV/AIDS rate in Malawi is extremely high and problematic- slightly more than ten times
than the world average- therefore affecting life expectancy, quality of life, and public health status.
HIV/AIDS is a generational disease, which affects the fetus in gestation. To further compound mortality
conditions, the lifetime risk of maternal death is five times higher than the world average. Part of this
could be due to the fact that since Malawi is a religious country, predictably they would stand pretty
conservative with abortion. Consequently, abortion may be heavily stigmatized in the community. If
abortion is made available, most performed procedures are deemed unsafe.
HIV/AIDS in the age range of 15-24 is much higher in women than men. This provides us a
general sketch of the situation, but it depends on the proportion of the population for both genders,
so the percentage figure does not provide a lot of information. Furthermore, this demonstrates that
there is gender inequality, as women are not getting the care they need for themselves, sequentially
affecting prenatal health, as this becomes a detrimental cycle that not only infest the immediate
community, but also the sub-Saharan African region.
Despite religious roots in Christianity and Muslim, Malawian men may not be practicing
monogamy, therefore making women more susceptible to HIV/AIDS. Malawian men may also be
having more than one wife. Women and young girls may also be prone to other forms of abuse, such

as rape. As evidence suggests, there is a high risk of death in infancy and childhood, which
perpetuates the frailty of health in Malawi; HIV/AIDS may be mostly responsible for these figures;
however, malnutrition and poverty also play important roles in mortality rates, such as a decrease in
life expectancy and an increase in death rate. The child mortality rate has improved vastly almost by
half between 1960 and 2000, but the figures are still quite high. This could be from improvements
and advancements in medicine, as well as shifts in values inscribed from culture over time. For
example, views on child abuse have dramatically changed over the decades. Nonetheless, HIV/AIDS
still plagues the nation, as Malawi significantly trails behind the world, and even LDCs by a
significant amount.
TABLE: How Mortality changed through time
Malawi

World

LDCs (start from 1980)

CDR per 1,000 population

(1970-1975 1980 1985 1990
1995 2000 2005 2010
2015)

23.5 19 20 18
20 22 19 12
11

11.7 11 11 10
9998
8

(n/a) 12 11 10
9998
7

IMR
(1970-1975 1980 1985 1990
1995 2000 2005 2010
2015)

191 142 165 130

134 127 100 80
53

93 97 81 73
62 57 54 46
37

(n/a) 110 90 81
67 63 59 50
40

41 46 46 49
45 39 45 46
61

57.9 61 62 64
66 66 67 69
71

(n/a) 57 58 61
64 64 65 67
69

e0

(1970-1975 1980 1985 1990

1995 2000 2005 2010
2015)

Worldwide, HIV/AIDS was a highly stigmatized disease with African origins, so it continues to have
drastic, localized effects on its population. This table shows mortality rates and how it transitions through
time to reflect the HIV/AIDS epidemic, as it will have implications on both mortality and fertility.
Reflected in the data, HIV/AIDS had period of stigma, which was amplified in 1985, and then some
residual effects in the 1990s due to some births in the 1980s from the disease, resulting in some early
deaths. Malawis data varies up and down throughout these mortality measures. Just as the IMR rate
started to get better in Malawi in the 1970s, the effects of HIV/AIDS has been a significant barrier to their
quality of life since widespread public awareness, as seen in the mortality tables. Even compared to LDCs,
Malawians life expectancy falls behind by eight years. Malawis IMR rate is 24.5% higher than other
LDCs; their life expectancy is 11.6% lower than LDCs.
Even though Malawi falls behind on multiple mortality rates, it has shown the most improvement
throughout the decades. As far as comparing CDR to LDCs and the world, Malawis CDR since the 1970s
has been doubly worse, but has improved quite substantially by half from the last forty years, from a CDR
of 23.5 to 11. This steep difference over the years could be from importing vaccines and other beneficial
healthcare technology. It is interesting that the data for CDR between LDCs and the world is not much
different on this topic; the latest data for both LDCs and the world show that the CDR is 8 and other
mortality measures for the world and LDCs has remained nuanced. Moreover, the same pattern applies
for IMR. Malawi has demonstrated the most improvement with IMR, with a 58% improvement from the

1970s figure until now. The world showed a 50.54% improvement since the 1970s; LDCs showed 54.55%
improvement since the 1980s. In terms of life expectancy, Malawis life expectancy lags behind LDCs by
eight years. From available data since the 1970s, Malawis life expectancy has improved 32.8%; the
world improved 18.5%; since the 1980s, LDCs improved 17.4%. Despite these trends, the world and
LDCs started with a much higher life expectancy than Malawi, with over a fifteen-year difference when
comparing Malawi to the world, or LDCs, as shown in the mortality tables.
The general pattern for Malawi, the world, and LDCs have been favorable, even after recovering from
the detrimental effects of HIV/AIDS with fluctuating data, but Malawi still has difficulty keeping up, even
with LDCs figures. Although education, awareness, and medical advancements have certainly alleviated
the rates, Malawians are still quite afflicted from a whole host of poor mortality conditions. These
conditions verify the affluence of the country- as poverty deteriorates Malawians way of life, which show
that they may be unable to attain enough resources for food and healthcare to improve their quality of life.
As a whole, mortality is much worse in Malawi than LDCs, in which socioeconomic status and
very slow urbanization rate, such as healthcare advances and access to education, could be the most
probable sources of the problem. Higher mortality could lead to higher fertility, since IMR in Malawi has
become an expectation. In agrarian societies similar to Malawi, people believe that children can take care
of land through agriculture, as well as take to care and support the family.
TABLE: Fertility

CBR, 2015
TFR, 2015
ASBR: Adolescent
Fertility Rate (births
per 1,000 women,
ages 15-19) PRBs
Youth Data Sheet,
2013

Malawi

World

LDCs

37
5
104

20
2.5
52

22
2.6
(n/a)

Mozambiq
ue
45
5.9
(n/a)

Hondur
as
24
2.7
(n/a)

In comparison to the world and LDCs, Malawi falls pretty high in fertility rates. Crude birth
rate, or CBR, is the number of live births per 1,000 populations per year. Just comparing the CBRs,
Malawi has a pretty high CBR at 37; LDCs are at 22. Even though LDCs absorb most of the world
population as a large measure, the world CBR is at 20. In terms of CBR, Malawis rate is 46% higher
than the world average, and 40.5% higher than LDCs.
The table also compares figures from Mozambique, a neighboring country of Malawi; and
Honduras, another LDC similar in size to Malawi, but located in South America. Mozambiques
CBR is even higher than Malawis CBR by 21.6%. Mozambiques TFR is also even higher than
Malawi, at .9 higher. For neighboring countries, they have similar fertility patterns, but it is
interesting that Mozambiques numbers are significantly higher, exhibiting that fertility patterns are
even more amplified. In contrast, Honduras CBR and TFR are much lower than Malawis. In
respect to Malawi, Honduras CBR is 35% lower; its TFR rate is 46% lower. Cultural aspects and
governance have integral effects on these differences.

Total fertility rate, or TFR, is the average number of children a woman would have if
childbearing patterns stayed the same. The worlds TFR, 2.5, is half of Malawis, 5; LDCs are not far
behind at 2.6. Women in Malawi give births to many children during their lifetime, since they are
more of an agrarian society and need the labor for agriculture. Additionally, since there is a high
IMR in Malawi, Malawians may desire to have more children, owing to the fact that infant deaths
have become an expectation. Malawian parents hope for some children to survive to take care of
them through the aging process. Religion could also play a role to encourage more children in order
to pass on faith and/or belief systems. There is also a yearning to pass down traits, whether cultural
or biological, to further stimulate fertility patterns in Malawi.
Comparing ASBR figures for Adolescent Fertility Rate between ages 15-19, Malawis is twice as
high as the world- 104 and 52 respectively. This indicates that Malawis population would continue
to grow quite rapidly, in comparison to other areas. This measure also conveys that in order to
engage in sexual behavior, Malawians marry early, and as they partake in early marriages, they have
more children.
TABLE: Fertility and time
CBR
(1970-1975 1980 1985 1990
1995 2000 2005 2010
2015)
TFR
(1970-1975 1980 1985 1990
1995 20002005
2010 2015)

Malawi

World

LDCs

56.6 51 52 52
47 41 50
43
37

30.9 28 27 27
24 22 21
20
20

(n/a) 32 31 31
28 25 27 22
22

7.4 7.0 6.9 7.7

6.7 5.9 6.5
6.3 5

4.5 3.8 3.7 3.5

3.1 2.9 2.7
2.6 2.5

(n/a) 4.4 4.2 4.0

3.5 3.2 3.0
2.7 2.6

The table shows that the world and LDCs have been consistently trending in decreases
throughout the last forty-five years in terms of CBR and TFR. For Malawi, a similar pattern applies
from mortality- even though Malawi has the highest birth rates; it has shown the most difference
across these fertility measures.
The fertility data from this table show that both these fertility measures dropped significantly,
with Malawis figures being the most dramatic difference from 1970 to present. From available data
throughout the years, Malawis CBR improved by a difference of 19.6; its TFR improved by a
difference of 2.4. To further elaborate on the Malawis improved conditions on birth rate since 1970,
the world improved by a difference of 10.9 for CBR; a difference for TFR of 2. From 1980, LDCs
improved by a difference of 10 for CBR, 1.8 for TFR. Despite these vast improvements, Malawi
experienced fluctuations in these measures, especially in 1990 and 1995 for both these measures,
which shows the acute effects of HIV/AIDS. Malawis CBR varied greatly from 2000-2015 in
much larger increments every five years, for example, from a CBR of 41 in 2000 to a CBR of 50 in
2005. Between 1985-1990, the world and LDCs experienced decreases in TFR, while Malawi
experienced an increase in TFR .8, a pretty big difference to be faced with in a five-year period.
Despite Malawi starting with much higher rates for both CBR and TFR, it ended with the most
significant differences between the world and LDCs. After evaluating these measures, Malawis
population will still continue to grow, but not as much or as fast as it once was, as CBR continue to

decrease since the 1970s and TFR continues to decrease since the 1990s. TFR does have a
remarkable quality of changing pretty often and quickly.
TABLE: Fertility & modern contraception use

All Methods
Modern Methods

Malawi
59
57

% married women, ages 15-49 using contraception

Africa
World
35
62
29
56

LDCs
61
55

From the above fertility table pertaining to contraception, all methods include traditional
methods with modern. Contraceptive methods are employed to delay pregnancy. Traditional methods
of contraception include rhythm, condoms, withdrawal, and spermicidal foam. Failure rates are
higher with traditional methods. Correspondingly, modern methods are also known as more effective
methods. Modern methods include birth control pills, IUDs, implants, sterilization.
Sub-Saharan Africa, which includes Malawi, is known for its poor countries. Contraceptive use
appears to be well received in the Malawian population, as their figures are close to the world and
exceed in modern methods. Malawis rate of contraception use for married women is higher than the
world and LDCs by 1% and 2%, respectively. The percentage of Malawian women using modern
contraception far exceeds Africa by 96.5%. With the world at 62%, and LDCs at 61% for all
methods of contraception, Malawi falls very close behind, at 59%. It appears that Malawian couples
are expressing less desire for more children. Even though Malawian women have high rates of
contraceptive use, their fertility rate still remains high. Failure rates may be associated with some
methods, such as not being diligent about taking the pill every day. On the other hand, to combat the
high rates of HIV/AIDS, Malawians may be resistant to having an abundant number of children to
further spread the disease, so they may utilize contraception. Healthcare is quite expensive,
especially with disease and terminal illnesses like HIV/AIDS, so governance may demonstrate the
need and urgency to hinder population growth by making contraception more accessible. Perhaps
people with HIV/AIDS are more cautious with producing more children. These figures reassert
Malawis decline in population growth.
As evidence suggests throughout the years, Malawi has much higher fertility rates and high
CBRs, compared to the world and LDCs. In the future, their population will continue to grow, but at
a slower rate than before. Malawians are taking precautionary measures, as couples desire less
children as they conform to MDCs social trend of having smaller families, and contraception appears
quite accessible.
TABLE: RNI & net migration
Malawi
Net Migration Rate
0
per 1,000
% RNI 1950s 1970s
2.9 3.3
% RNI
(1970-1975 1980 1985 3.3 3.2 3.2

1990

1995 3.4 2.7 1.9 3.2

20002005
3.1 2.6
2010 2015)

World
-

LDCs
-1

(n/a) 1.9

(n/a)

1.9 1.7 1.7

1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2
1.2 1.2

(n/a) 2.0 2.0

2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5
1.4 1.5

Migration occurs when the current residence becomes undesirable and the individual has the
means to relocate. The most current data reflects that Malawis net migration is 0. This is further
supported from the data that people are migrating from LDCs due to a globalized economy, as many
LDCs are obtaining the means to migrate to more appealing locations. Net migration is the estimated
rate of migration between immigration and emigration per 1,000 populations. However, there are
some complications with the migration criteria, as there is no universal definition for immigrant,
resulting in content and coverage errors.
Between 1950 and 1970, Malawis RNI increased by .4%; Malawis population grew from more
births than deaths. As a consequence, in the 1970s, Malawis RNI is 42.4% higher than the worlds
RNI. From 1970 to 2015, both Malawis and the worlds RNI have decreased by the same amount.
As Malawis RNI decreases, it makes minimal progress in the Demographic Transition Model.

TABLE: CBR, CDR, RNI changes through time

Malawi

World

LDCs

56.6 51 52
52 47 41 50
43 37

30.9 28 27
27 24 22 21
20 20

(n/a) 32 31
31 28 25 27
22 22

CDR
(1970-1975 1980 1985
1990 1995 2000 2005
2010 2015)

23.5 19 20
18 20 22 19
12 11

11.7 11 11
10 9 9 9
88

(n/a) 12 11
10 9 9 9
87

% RNI
(1970-1975 1980 1985
1990 1995 20002005
2010 2015)

3.3 3.2 3.2

3.4 2.7 1.9 3.2
3.1 2.6

1.9 1.7 1.7

1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2
1.2 1.2

(n/a) 2.0 2.0

2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5
1.4 1.5

CBR
(1970-1975 1980 1985
1990 1995 2000 2005
2010 2015)

The Five-Stage Demographic Transition Model explains the population transition of LDCs from
the experience of MDCs- from high birth rates and high death rates, to low birth rates and low death
rates, to eventually stabilize the population to near-zero population growth. It is utilized as a method
for population projection, as RNI changes through time. Recently, the experiences of LDCs have
been more inconsistent than MDCs. This is shown in Malawis numbers- its RNI rates varies in
increases and decreases, but follows the same trend towards a decrease in the last forty years. Today,
the world is in late-stage four, with a CBR of 20, a CDR of 8, and 1.2% RNI. Comparably, LDCs are
also in late stage 4, with even lower death rates than the world average. LDCs CDR is 7, its CBR is
22, and its RNI is 1.5%.
In the Demographic Transition Model, LDCs fall between stages 2-4. Similar to the world and
LDCs, Malawis CBR and CDR are declining together. As Malawi progresses through the last fortyfive years, it is showing that LDCs are able to develop quickly. In 1970, from the data provided for

Malawi in 1970, its RNI was at its peak. Recall that in 1950, the RNI was 2.9%. Malawis CBR was
still high at 56.6; that was 45.4% higher CBR rate than the world in 1970. Malawis CDR is 50.2%
that the worlds. From this information, Malawi in 1970 would be at an early stage 3. Today, Malawi
would still be at stage 3. Its CBR is declining; its CDR is low at an 11. Its RNI showed some
variance in increase and decrease. From the information provided, Malawis RNI rose to 3.4% in
1990. In 2000, they experienced a lower RNI, 1.9%.
As evidence suggests, Malawi did not make much progress through the transition model, as
CDR, CBR and RNI continue to fluctuate in Malawi. However, these rates still remain much higher
than the world and LDCs. Malawi made the most progress with its CDR- over the last four decades,
their CDR decreased much faster than the worlds. This indicates that they have some resources to
some more sophisticated healthcare. In 2000-2005, Malawis RNI increased by 1.3%. It is difficult to
draw conclusions, since Malawis population changes so quickly, but they are headed towards a
slower rate of increase in population.

TABLE: Doubling time & projections

Doubling Time (2015 RNI),
in years
2030 population projection,
in millions
2050 population projection,
in millions
1986 projected population
for 2100, in millions

Malawi
26.92

World
58.3

LDCs
46.6

24.7

8,505

7,210

36.6

9,804

8,495

36.2

10,445

9,028

As mentioned earlier, Malawis population is 17.2 million. Doubling time is how long it takes
for population to double if RNI stayed the same, which is never true in real life, but it is another
method for population projection. Twenty-seven years from now, in the year 2042, if doubling time
were applied, Malawis population would be 34.4 million. In 2030, demographers estimate that
Malawi would have 24.7 million people. Doubling time is an overestimate for the 2050 population.
These overestimates indicate that LDCs like Malawi are capable of changing pretty fast- as they are
capable of being influenced by MDCs social trends of having less children, as well as governance to
influence family size. Looking at predictions into the future, if doubling time were to be compared to
the 1986 projected population for 2100, the 1986 population of 36.2 was far too modest. Conditions
have changed and medical advancements and better national living conditions may encourage
population growth. 1986 was also during the HIV/AIDS outbreak, and perhaps demographers
predicted that those infected with the disease were more cautious about having more children, or
HIV/AIDS would have a profound decrease in the population.
In view of current data, recent trends and the present shorter-term projections, the 2100
projection made in 1986 of 36.2 million is too modest compared to the 2050 projection of 36.6
million, but it makes a point that the population in Malawi would not be growing as fast as

conventional wisdom suggests for Sub-Saharan Africa, further painting a picture of overpopulation
and problems beyond carrying capacity. In 1986, demographers probably predicted that HIV/AIDS
would play a role to increase rates in mortality. With improved mortality conditions in Malawi and
imported technology, such as vaccines and antibiotics, these factors, along with fulfilling agricultural
needs, may encourage population growth. These are the reasons why the 2050 predictions made in
2015 are much higher than the 2100 predictions made in 1986. Assumptions have changed on their
rate of growth, where Malawis RNI has had a significant drop since the last 45 years, but still
experienced significant variance in increases and decreases in that time span.
TABLE: 1980 Population Projection for 2000 & actual population
1980
projected
population for 2000, in
millions
Actual population in
2000, in millions

Malawi
11.5

World
6,156

LDCs
4,884

10.4

6,067

4,883

Malawis population projection was an overestimate by 1.1 million. On a larger scale,

demographers also overestimated the world population by 89 million. Demographers also slightly
overestimated for LDCs by one million. Malawi is still increasing in population, but not as quickly
as it was in the past. MDCs are having fewer children and LDCs are following that social trend. This
was shown earlier in the fertility section- where Malawi showed widespread use of modern
contraception. Also, the earth has a carrying capacity and it is difficult to raise a family on limited
natural resources. As Malawi increases in population, conflict will arise over resources to sustain
survival.
After evaluating the data for Malawis population and its population projections, I am
optimistic about Malawis ability to make changes to the rate of population growth. Malawi will still
continue to grow in population, but at a slower rate, since peak RNI was at 1950. Prevalence of
HIV/AIDS could also serve as an impediment to have more children. With widespread contraceptive
use and medical advancements, mortality conditions have improved and Malawians life expectancy
is higher than ever. Their rates lag behind most parts of the world, but they are making
improvements. Malawi has shown that it is capable of being influenced from outside sources. As it
mimics MDCs through the demographic transition model, it will make progress towards zero
population growth, but it would take a much longer time. Urbanization would have to occur at a
faster rate in order for them to achieve this goal.