FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
Group 2:
AMBUJ ARIND: 16P126
ANANYA KHANNA: 16P127
ANURAG AGARWAL: 16P130
HONEY VASHISHTHA: 16P143
PUSHKAL MISHRA: 16P156
SRIRURU KIRAN KUMAR:
16P170
Introduction
The Indian automotive industry has emerged as a 'sunrise sector' in the Indian
economy. It plays a significant role in driving economic growth. The industry
employs 29 million people, directly and indirectly. Automobile industry
contributes for about 7.1 % of total GDP, 26% of Industry GDP and about 49% of
manufacturing GDP. With the total production of 23.36 million units Indian
automobile sector is seventh largest in the world. India is emerging as one of
the world's fastest growing passenger car markets and second largest two
wheeler manufacturer.
Indian Two-Wheeler Industry is the largest in the world as far as the volume of
production and sales are concerned. India is the biggest two-wheeler market on
this planet, registering an overall growth rate of 9.5 percent between 2006 and
2015. The volume growth recorded in the 2014-15 fiscal year stood at a
commendable 14.8 percent on a year-on-year basis. The 'Make in India'
campaign of the Government of India is also going to attract more foreign
investment into Indian Two-Wheeler Industry creating further growth
opportunities in the coming years. The constant upsurge in demand in two
wheeler markets owes a lot to the launching of new attractive models at
affordable prices, design innovations made from youths perspective and latest
technology utilized in manufacturing of vehicles.
Motorcycles form the majority share of the two wheeler markets, followed by the
scooters. The market share of the scooters is expanding and has grown by about
5 percent over the previous year in FY 14-15. The estimated revenue of the two
wheeler segment has grown to about Rs 755 Billion with the sales of about 18
million units in 2014-2015. Overall growth was mainly driven by the scooters
segment which saw a strong growth of 25.2 per cent CAGR 2014-2015.
Motorcycle segment saw a modest growth of 7.9 percent CAGR in FY 2014-2015.
During Q1 FY16, the two-wheeler industry grew by a modest 0.6% YoY owing to
relatively weak performance across segments with motorcycle volumes degrowing by 2% YoY during the quarter. Though scooter volumes posted growth in
Q1 FY16, at 7.3%, it was much lower than the healthy double-digit growth of last
2011 because of the presence of HMC in ASEAN, Latin America and Africa. But
after the separation Hero has recently entered into various markets with a focus
on Africa, Latin America and the South-East Asian markets. Hero owns a very
small market share of about 6 % in the export market.
Absolute Analysis
Turnover:
The turnover of the company has increased from 19742.14 crores in FY 2011 to
28168.82 crores in FY 2015. It witnessed YOY growth on account of strong export
sales and moderate domestic demand.
Turnover
Turnover
30000
25000
28168.82
24027.06
24259.94
25814.7
19742.14
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
2 0 1 0 -2 0 1 1
2 0 1 1 -2 0 1 2
2 0 1 2 -2 0 1 3
2 0 1 3 -2 0 1 4
2 0 1 4 -2 0 1 5
Expenses:
The total expenses have increased from Rs 16839.99 crores in FY 2011 to
Rs.24133.90 crores in FY 2015. The main reasons for increase in expenses can be
attributed to increase in cost of materials consumed, increase in employee benefits
as well as increase in other expenses(power, fuel, rent etc.)
Total Expenses
Total Expenses
30000.00
24133.90
25000.00
20000.00
16839.99
20043.71
20577.08
21828.26
15000.00
10000.00
5000.00
0.00
2 0 1 0 -2 0 1 1
2 0 1 1 -2 0 1 2
2 0 1 2 -2 0 1 3
2 0 1 3 -2 0 1 4
2 0 1 4 -2 0 1 5
Gross income:
The gross income has witnessed YOY growth of 9.2% on account of increase in
demand and greater sales. The gross income has increased from 19,688 crore
rupees in FY 2011 to 28,078 crore rupees in FY 2015.
28,078
23,944
24,166
2 0 1 1 -2 0 1 2
2 0 1 2 -2 0 1 3
25,722
19,688
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2 0 1 0 -2 0 1 1
2 0 1 3 -2 0 1 4
2 0 1 4 -2 0 1 5
2,000
2,386
2,378
2,500
1,928
2,118
2,109
2 0 1 2 -2 0 1 3
2 0 1 3 -2 0 1 4
1,500
1,000
500
0
2 0 1 0 -2 0 1 1
2 0 1 1 -2 0 1 2
2 0 1 4 -2 0 1 5
Gross block:
Gross block is the sum total of all assets of the company valued at their cost of
acquisition. This is inclusive of the depreciation that is to be charged on each
asset. It has increased substantially due to the completion of multiple
expansion plans of the company.
8,114
8,000
7,000
6,308
6,685
6,909
2 0 1 2 -2 0 1 3
2 0 1 3 -2 0 1 4
6,000 5,538
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2 0 1 0 -2 0 1 1
2 0 1 1 -2 0 1 2
2 0 1 4 -2 0 1 5
Equity:
Equity has increased from 2956.08 crore rupees in FY 2011 to 6541.33 crore
rupees in FY 2015.
Equity(in Crore)
Equity(in Crore)
7000.00
6541.33
6000.00
5000.00
5599.87
5006.24
4289.83
4000.00
2956.06
3000.00
2000.00
1000.00
0.00
2 0 1 0 -2 0 1 1
2 0 1 1 -2 0 1 2
2 0 1 2 -2 0 1 3
2 0 1 3 -2 0 1 4
2 0 1 4 -2 0 1 5
Accounting Policies
The following accounting policies have been followed in the preparation of financial
statements of the company for the fiscal year 2014-15:
1. Accounting Convention:
The financial statements of the company have been prepared in
accordance with the Generally Accepted Accounting Principles in India
(Indian GAAP) to comply with the Accounting Standards
The financial statements have been prepared on accrual basis under
the historical cost convention
2. Operating Cycle: The operating cycle has been taken as 12 months for the
purpose of classification of its assets and liabilities as current and non-current
3. Fixed / Intangible assets and depreciation / amortization:
Fixed assets have been stated at cost less accumulated depreciation.
Cost of acquisition is inclusive of freight, duties, taxes and other
incidental expenses
Depreciation has been charged on a prorate basis at the straight line
method rates prescribed in Schedule II to the Companies Act, 2013
Intangible assets, comprising of expenditure on model fee etc.,
incurred have been amortized on a straight line method over a period
of five years. Licenses for Technical know-how / export licenses have
been amortized on a straight line basis up to June 30, 2014 i.e. forty
two months
Leasehold land has been amortized over the period of lease
4. Investments:
Current investments have been stated at lower of cost and fair value
computed category wise
Long term investments have been stated at cost less provision for
diminution, if any
5. Inventories: Raw materials and components, stores and spares, loose tools,
finished goods and work in progress have been valued at cost or net
realizable value, whichever is lower
6. Foreign currency transactions:
Transactions in foreign currency have been recorded at the exchange
rate prevailing at the time of the transaction. All loss or gain on
translation have been charged to revenue in the year in which it is
incurred
Monetary assets and liabilities denominated in foreign currency are
restated at the rate prevailing at the year end and resultant gain or
loss is recognized
7. Sales:
Gross sales are inclusive of applicable excise duty and freight but are
exclusive of sales tax
Scrap is accounted for on sale basis
8. Warranty claims: The estimated liability for product warranties has been
recorded when products are sold
9. Provisions and contingent liabilities: Provisions have not been discounted to
their present value and have been determined based on the best estimate
required to settle the obligation at the balance sheet date
Ratio Analysis
Liquidity Ratios:
Current Ratio: The current ratio is a liquidity ratio that measures a company's
ability to pay short-term and long-term obligations. To gauge this ability, the current
ratio considers the current total assets of a company relative to that companys
current total liabilities. Higher current ratio implies healthier short term liquidity
comfort level. A current ratio below 1 indicates that the company may not be able
to meet its obligations in the short run. However, it is not always a matter of worry if
this ratio temporarily falls below 1 as many times companies squeeze out short
term cash sources to achieve a capital intensive plan with a longer term outlook.
Quick Ratio
The quick ratio is a tougher test of liquidity than the current ratio. It
eliminates certain current assets such as inventory and prepaid expenses
that may be more difficult to convert to cash. Like the current ratio, having a
quick ratio above one means a company should have little problem with
liquidity. The higher the ratio, the more liquid it is, and the better able the
company will be to ride out any downturn in its business.
1.15
2015
1.36
1.1
2014
1.26
1.06
2013
1.22
0.96
2012
1.11
0.87
2011
0.96
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Current Ratio
0.8
1.2
1.4
1.6
Quick Ratio
The above chart shows that the companys liquidity ratios have been
increasing consistently over the last 5 years. This is due to decrease in its
liability payable towards MOU signed with Honda Motor Company Limited
Japan (Honda) for right and license to manufacture, assemble, sell and
distribute certain products/parts and export license for certain products and
their service parts under the intellectual property rights.
Chart Title
2.5
2.13
1.95
2
1.5
1.48
1.36
1.28
1.07
0.9
1.25
1.15
0.54
0.5
0
Current Ratio
Quick Ratio
Bajaj Auto
Eicher Motors
TVS Motor
Industry Average
Hero MotoCorp
As is evident from the current and quick ratio values of Hero Motorcorp of
1.36 and 1.15 , the liquidity position of the company is greater than 1 but is
less than the industry average of 1.48 and 1.25 respectively but the
difference is not much. Also Hero Motors average current ratio over the last 5
financial years has been 1.04 times which indicates that that the Company is comfortably
placed to pay for its short term obligations.
Solvency Ratios:
Debt-Equity Ratio: Debt/Equity Ratio is a debt ratio used to measure a company's
financial leverage, calculated by dividing a companys total liabilities by
its stockholders' equity. The D/E ratio indicates how much debt a company is using
to finance its assets relative to the amount of value represented in
shareholders equity.
Description
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Debt-Equity
0.73
0.40
0.19
0.05
0.00
159.52
135.49
213.36
243.58
301.16
Ratio
ISCR
The debt-equity ratio of the company has been decreasing over the years
and has reduced to zero in FY 2015. Hero Motors average interest coverage
ratio over the last 5 financial years has been 208.79 times which indicates
that the Company has been generating enough for the shareholders after
servicing its debt obligations. Also the ISCR value is comfortably greater than
the industry average of 94.34 which is a good sign.
700
630.4
600
478.86
500
400
301.16
300
200
94.34
100
16.62
0
ISCR
Bajaj Auto
Eicher Motors
TVS Motor
Industry Average
Hero MotoCorp
Profitability Ratios:
Gross Profit Margin: Gross profit margin is a financial metric used to assess a
company's financial health and business model by revealing the proportion of
money left over from revenues after accounting for the cost of goods
sold (COGS). Gross profit margin, also known as gross margin, is calculated by
dividing gross profit by revenues.
after taxes by
revenue. A company's
after-tax profit margin
is important because
it tells investors the
percentage of money
Description
Revenue
Gross Profit
Gross Profit Margin
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
19742.1
4
24027.0
6
24259.9
4
25814.7
0
28168.8
2
5552.38
28.1245
6578.19
27.3782
6801.63
28.0364
7500.32
29.0544
8294.16
29.4444
Operating Profit
Operating Profit
Margin
Profit After Tax
PAT Margin
2902.15
3983.35
3682.86
3986.44
4034.92
14.7002
8
16.5786
15.1808
3
15.4425
2
14.3240
6
1927.90
9.76540
5
2378.13
9.89771
5
2118.16
8.73110
2
2109.08
8.17007
4
2385.64
8.46908
It is evident that the margin on sales have been reducing for the Hero Motorcorp
due to competitive pricing to maintain market share in the industry.
EBIT Margin
30
24.09
25
20
18.17
14.32
15
13.09
10
4.51
5
0
Bajaj Auto
Eicher Motors
Hero MotoCorp
TVS Motor
Industry Average
EBIT Margin
The above chart compares the EBIT Margins of different players in the two-wheeler
industry as well as the industry average. Though the operating margin of Hero
Motorcorp is more than the industry average but it is still less than its competitors
which indicates further scope of improvement.
Return on Equity: It is a measure of profitability that calculates how many dollars
of profit a company generates with each dollar of shareholders' equity. ROE is more
than a measure of profit; it's a measure of efficiency. A rising ROE suggests that a
company is increasing its ability to generate profit without needing as much capital.
ROE
70.00
65.22
60.00
55.44
50.00
42.31
37.66
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
ROE
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
36.47
ROE- FY2015
60
54.4
50
40
36.47
33.21
27.72
30
22.73
20
10
0
ROE
Bajaj Auto
Eicher Motors
TVS Motor
Industry Average
Hero MotoCorp
As can be seen from the above chart, the ROE of the company has been decreasing
for the last 5 years due to increasing competition in the market. Also comparing the
ROE with those of the peer companies shows that it is more than most of Heros
competitors.
Return on Total Assets: The return on total assets (ROTA) is a ratio that
measures a company's earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) against its total net
assets. The ratio is considered to be an indicator of how effectively a company is
using its assets to generate earnings before contractual obligations must be paid.
The
average return on total assets has increased over the last 5 years due to owing to
efficient operational architecture and higher realizations. The company has been
increasingly utilizing its assets more efficiently to create more returns.
ROCE- FY2015
90
77.68
80
65.54
70
60
50
40
45.16
39.97
30
21.35
20
10
0
ROCE
Bajaj Auto
Eicher Motors
TVS Motor
Industry Average
Hero MotoCorp
The return on capital employed or ROCE for the company has not followed any
particular pattern over the last 5 years. As shown in the above chart the ROCE value
of Hero Motorcorp is much higher than the industry average as well as most of its
peers. It implies that it is generating good returns both for its investors as well its
debtors.
Activity Ratios:
CE Turnover: The Capital Employed Turnover Ratio shows how efficiently the sales
are generated from the capital employed by the firm. This ratio helps the investors
or the creditors to determine the ability of a firm to generate revenues from the
capital employed and act as a key decision factor for lending more money to the
asking firm.
Total Assets Turnover: Asset turnover ratio is the ratio of the value of a
companys sales or revenue generated relative to the value of its assets. The ratio
can often be used as an indicator of the efficiency with which a company is
deploying its assets in generating revenue. Generally speaking, the higher the asset
turnover ratio, the better the company is performing, since higher ratios imply that
the
5.00
4.50
4.70
4.68
4.40
4.63
4.58
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.33
2.50
2.48
2.62
2.05
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
CE Turnover
2011
2013
2014
2015
2.73
The above chart shows that the assets turnover for Hero Motorcorp has been
increasing over the last 5 years. This means it has been able to utilize its assets
efficiently to increase the sales. But it is also seen that the Capital Employed
Turnover has decreased on an average over the last 5 years. This can be attributed
to the fact that the companys current liabilities have decreased faster than
increase in its sales.
2.73
2.63
2.5
2.1
2
1.5
1.79
1.49
1
0.5
0
Eicher Motors
TVS Motor
Industry Average
Hero MotoCorp
The above chart compares the total assets turnover ratios for different players in
the two-wheeler industry. It can be seen that the asset utilization is best in the
industry for Hero Motorcorp Ltd. at 2.73 much higher than the industry average of
2.1
Inventory Turnover: Inventory turnover is a ratio showing how many times a
company's inventory is sold and replaced over a period of time. The days in the
period can then be divided by the inventory turnover formula to calculate the days
it takes to sell the inventory on hand. It is calculated as sales divided by average
inventory. Inventory turnover measures how fast a company is selling inventory and
is generally compared against industry averages. A low turnover implies weak sales
and, therefore, excess inventory. A high ratio implies either strong sales and/or large
discounts.
ss
180.00
165.22
160.00
140.00
119.27
120.00
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
51.77
41.07 40.03
32.56
24.39
20.00
0.00
Inventory Turnover
2011
2012
Debtors Turnover
2013
2014
2015
The above chart shows that the inventory turnover has decreased over the last 5
years which indicates an increase in amount of inventory on hand. According to the
annual report there has been an increase in the amount of the raw materials and
finished goods in stock. The company has been maintaining higher amount of
inventory to compensate for increase in sales of the two wheelers.
292.00
250.00
200.00
150.00
100.00
50.00
0.00
29.77
30.98
Debtors Turnover
Bajaj Auto
Eicher Motors
TVS Motor
Industry Average
19.03
37.94
15.73
26.49
Inventory Turnover
Hero MotoCorp
As can been seen from the above chart the inventory turnover of Hero Motorcorp is
highest in the industry, which also indicates that their stocks are moving faster than
their peers. On comparison of the debtors turnover of the company shows that it is
the lowest in the industry. This indicates that the company needs to improve on its
cash collection process to make it more efficient.
This section describes the goings-on of cash associated with outside financing
activities. Typical sources of cash inflow would be cash raised by selling stock and
bonds or by bank borrowings. Likewise, paying back a bank loan would show up as a
use of cash flow, as would dividend payments and common stock repurchases.
The following observations can be made from the cash flow statement of the
company:
1. The net cash from operating activities has decreased from 2963.41 crores in
FY 2014 to 2250.00 crore rupees in FY 2015. This is due to increase in trade
receivables, short term loans and advances and long term loans and
advances. The company has paid more amount of advance income tax,
capital advances in this fiscal which has decreased the cash in hand.
2. The company has sold its investments in shares and invested in construction
of fixed assets such as buildings, plant and machinery. The net effect has
been a small positive cash flow of 12.08 crores in FY 2015.
3. The cash outflow from financing activities has increased from 1,414.93 crore
rupees in FY 2014 to 2,230.52 crore rupees in FY 2015. This is due to greater
dividend payout of 1,897.03 crore rupees from 1,199.29 crore rupees. This
indicates either a dearth of investment opportunities for the company or an
attempt to boost the share prices.
DuPont Analysis:
According to DuPont analysis, ROE is affected by three things: operating
efficiency, which is measured by profit margin; asset use efficiency, which is
measured by total asset turnover; and financial leverage, which is measured
by the equity multiplier.
Therefore, DuPont analysis is represented in mathematical form by the
following calculation:
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
PATM (%)
9.77
9.90
8.73
8.17
8.47
Sales /
Total
Assets(x)
2.05
2.33
2.48
2.62
2.73
Assets to
Equity (x)
3.25
2.40
1.95
1.76
1.58
ROE
65.22
55.44
42.31
37.66
36.47
1. The profit margin of the company has declined from 9.77 % to 8.47 % in the
last 5 years. This can be attributed to low pricing due to the need to maintain
competitive position in the market.
2. The asset turnover ratio has increased from 2.05 to 2.73 i.e. an increase of
33%. This signifies that the company is generating more revenue per unit of
assets and is performing better.
3. The asset to equity ratio has decreased from 3.25 to 1.58 i.e. a decrease of
51%. This indicates a gradual shift of the companys assets from debt to
equity and further signifies the improvement in financial position of the
company.
4. The ROE of the company has declined from 65.22 % to 36.47 % in the last 5
years. This is due to a decrease in the profit margin as well as leverage ratio
of the company over the period.
Chart Title
700.00
600.00
500.00
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
0.00
Hero
BSE Auto
TVS Motors
The above graph shows the performance of Hero Motocorp relative to its peers and
SENSEX. As can be seen from the graph, the company has underperformed w.r.t the
SENSEX as well as its peers. Though the share price has increased over the years
from 1630.5(Jan-2011) to 3303.8(Aug-2016) i.e. an increase of 102%, the BSE Auto
index has increased by 462.9 %.
Ans. The financial inclusion initiatives of the government will ensure greater
availability of credit to the rural population. Also the rural income is expected to
increase due to good monsoon. So we expect the sales to increase and share
prices to increase. So we recommend investment in the shares of the company.
2. Will you recommend a long-term loan to the company?
Ans. The company is in good financial condition and has paid off all its loans. Its
interest service coverage ratio is 301.16 which is much higher than the industry
average. So it is in a comfortable position to repay any future interest as well as
principal. Also from the DuPont Analysis we get that the profitability of the firm
can be increased by increasing the debt-equity ratio of the company. So it would
be in a more suitable position to repay the debt. So we recommend a long-term
loan to the company.
3. Will you recommend that the supplier should extend credit?
Ans.
average. As such the company in a better position to repay its creditors and so
the supplier should extend credit to the company.
4. What will be your advice to the management & employees?
Ans. The two wheeler industry is growing at a high growth rate of 16 percent and
we expect high sales due to good monsoon and pending implementation of the
GST bill. It is has invested heavily in generation of fixed assets and has zero
outstanding debt which bodes well for the future. We would advise the company
to invest heavily in new products and In advertising to try and capture the
growth which is due in the two-wheeler segment in the near future.