Submission
Sports Obermeyer
GARIMA SINGLA
NAVAM GUPTA
RAHUL YADAV
SIDDHARTH DAS
DEEPIKA PV
GROUP 2
SECTION A
(PGP/18/020)
(PGP/18/033)
(PGP/18/042)
(PGP/18/052)
(PGP/18/189)
Ques 1: How should he go about planning the orders to be placed in November, keeping in
mind the estimates provided in Exhibit 10?
Sol: We assume that Sports Obermeyer is in the speculative production phase during
November when they place their first order. We assume that the demand has a Normal
Probability Distribution.
Below we determine speculative production quantities.
For k = 0
Style
Gail
Isis
Entice
Assault
Teri
Electra
Stepha
nie
Seduce
d
Anita
Daphne
388
646
496
680
762
807
First product
production
quantity
1017
1042
1358
2525
1100
2150
1113
1048
1113
4017
3296
2383
20001
1113
2094
1349
4017
3296
2383
20001
Mean
1017
1042
1358
2525
1100
2150
Standard
deviation
For k = 0, the total production volume is 20,001 which is above what we want to produce. We
want to produce 10,000 units. So we find the value of k for which the total quantity
produced is 10,000.
Below is the analysis.
Style
Gail
Isis
Entice
Assault
Teri
Electra
Stepha
nie
Seduce
d
Anita
Daphne
388
646
496
680
762
807
First product
production
quantity
605
356
831
1803
291
1293
1113
1048
4017
3296
2383
20001
1113
2094
1349
2835
1072
950
10036
Mean
1017
1042
1358
2525
1100
2150
Standard
deviation
1.0620
23
Q1.xlsx
So we should order the above quantities and they are received for a value
of k = 1.062
So the firm requires long time of planning and production activities: how much to
stock in order to meet the demand
Uncertain forecasting due to customer demand: If the firm produces too much stock
it will be left with excess inventory and if it produces too little stock, it will have to
forgo sales.
Operational Changes
Reducing the number of styles of Ski clothes handled will make demand forecasting
for individual style more predictable
Production system
Key Problems
Large lead times for raw materials especially fabric dyer. Dyer has long lead time on
greige goods and needed to keep their capacity utilized year round but can change
colors overnight
Total annual sales and sales of basic colors prediction was possible, but predicting
fashion colors was not possible
Operational Changes
Sports Obermeyer sold its product through speciality ski-retail stores and few
department stores
Operational Changes
Increasing bargaining power with big suppliers that can commit on timeline
Increasing distribution channel to a country that have different period of product usage so that
excess inventory left can utilized in the country
Information system
Since 80% of its annual order volume is received by the week following the Las
Vegas show, by using IS , the firm can collect the data backward and analyze the
demand of the show in Vegas and compare with actual purchase.
Use of data and information and utilize historical data or Committee forecasting or
Research and Trend & Market Movement to predict the demand
Hong Kong
$3.84
~ 25 times more than the
Chinese rate
China
$0.16
19 parkas
2.35 hours
~1-2%
600
3.69US$
~5 times more than the
Chinese rate
12 parka
3.6 hours
~10%
1200
0.78 US$
Characteristic
Hong Kong
China
Level of skill
Higher
Lower
Lower
Flexibility
Higher
Lower
Speed
Faster
Slower
Labour Cost
Higher
Lower
Throughput Time
Lower
Higher
Larger
Larger
In case of smaller quantity, Hong Kong will give better returns whereas China will be a
better option for large quantity orders.
In the short term, it is better to source from Hong Kong while in the long term, it is
better to source from China.