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Retirement Distribution Planning

Shannon Wilson Bell is preparing for retirement.


He turned age 62 in June of 2016, and has a Social Security Statement that indicates his
benefit, if he continues to work until full retirement age would be 2,400/month at age 66.
He currently earns 7,000/month, and he is saving 1,000/month for retirement.
He began contributing to a retirement portfolio at age 35. The balance in his employers 401(k)
at the beginning of 2016 was $725,000. It is invested 100% in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF
(SPY).
He also has $25,000 cash (about 5 months spending) in a Roth account (Emergency Fund)
earning 1.5%.
He has a $150/day, 60-month Long-Term Care policy with an annual premium of 2,750
At age 65, he will purchase Medicare B, and high-deductible option on Medicare Supplement
Plan F.
Shannon is planning on retiring at the end of June 2019 (age 65), but is unsure whether to
begin drawing Social Security at 65, 66, or 70.
ASSUME:
Shannon has no debts.
Inflation will average 3%.
Social Security COLA will also average 3%.
Any RMD not used for personal spending or transferred to charity will be invested in SPY
outside the 401(k).
Tax rates and rules will not change over his life, other than inflation adjustments.
Consider:
What is a reasonable estimate of his Wage Replacement Ratio?
What would his social security benefit be if he stops work at age 65 and begins drawing at 65?
What would his social security benefit be if he stops work at age 65 and begins drawing at 66?
What would his social security benefit be if he stops work at age 65 and begins drawing at 70?
What will his accumulation (401(k) balance) be at age 65 (midway through 2019)?
What will his accumulation (401(k) balance) be at age 70 (end of 2024)? (Note that this will
differ, depending on when he begins drawing Social Security)
Estimate his Net Worth at the end of 2024, 2029, 2034, 2039, 2044, 2049, & 2054 under the
three options.
Write a Memo to Shannon explaining the consequences of choosing to defer Social Security
claiming.
Note:
In addition to standard retirement computations, I have a spreadsheet with columns:
Age 62-64: Wages; 401(k) deposit;
401(k) beginning balance; 401(k) income
Age 65:
Wages; 401(k) deposit;
Annual Spending; 401(k) withdrawal;
401(k) beginning balance; 401(k) income
Age 66-70: Annual Spending; Social Security income; 401(k) withdrawal; RMD;
401(k) beginning balance; 401(k) income

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