Industry Forecast
Overview
GDP is expected to rise by 1.4% in 2011 and expand by 3.8% in 2012. Over the next 10 years to 2020, GDP
is predicted to grow on average by 5.0% a year.
Manufacturing output growth is forecast to be higher than GDP growth over the next decade. Manufacturing
output is expected to increase by 8.3% in 2011 and expand by 7.4% in 2012. Over the next 10 years to 2020,
manufacturing output is expected to grow on average by 6.2% a year.
As a result, the share of manufacturing output in GDP is projected to rise from 21.4% in 2010 to 24.3% by
2015 and decrease to 24.1% by 2020. Over the same period, the share of service sector output in GDP is
expected to decline from 54.7% in 2010 to 50.9% in 2015 and rise to 51.6% in 2020.
The three fastest growing sectors in manufacturing over the next decade will be other special purpose
machinery, motor vehicle bodies & parts and motors etc except for vehicles. The slowest growing sectors will
be weapons & ammunition, oil extraction and coal extraction.
The overall value of industrial production in 2010 was RON 65.7 billion at 2005 prices. Within this, the largest
sectors are food (RON 24.7 billion), electricity, gas & water (RON 16.4 billion) and motor vehicle bodies &
parts (RON 5.4 billion). By 2015 industrial production will total RON 92.4 billion (2005 prices), falling to RON
119.8 billion by 2020. The largest sectors in 2020 will be food (RON 44.9 billion), electricity, gas & water (RON
26.4 billion) and motor vehicle bodies & parts (RON 12.0 billion).
The share of consumption goods in total manufacturing output was 55.8% in 2010: by 2020 this is predicted to
decline to 53.8%. The share of investment goods is expected to increase to 21.7% from 19.3% over the same
period, while the share of intermediate goods is forecast to fall from 24.9% to 24.5%.
Construction output is expected to decrease by 0.6% in 2011 and expand by 8.1% in 2012. Over the 10 years
to 2020, construction output is expected to grow on average by 6.3% a year.
Overall industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to rise by 7.5% in 2011 and
expand by 6.3% in 2012. This compares with an increase in world industrial production of 4.9% in 2011 and
rise of 5.0% in 2012. Over the 10 years to 2020, industrial production in Romania is expected to grow on
average by 5.7% a year, compared with a growth rate of 4.3% a year for the world as a whole.
As a result, the share of Romania in world industrial production should rise from 0.29% in 2011 to 0.30% by
2015 and expand to 0.32% by 2020.
Romania
Forecast in Detail
Extraction
Manf of consumer goods
Manf of investment goods
Ultilities
5%
Utilities
Manf of intermediate goods
Production
Construction
10%
Extraction
2%
Agriculture
7%
6
5
Manf of nondurable
consumer
goods
11%
Manf of durable
consumer
goods 1%
4
3
2
Manf of
investment
goods
4%
1
0
-1
-2
Last year
Past 5 years
Manf of
intermediate
goods
5%
Services
55%
-3
Past 10 years
Romania: Output
% year
% year
15
40
Romania
Agriculture, forestry
& fishing
Forecast
10
Construction
Forecast
30
20
0
10
-5
0
-10
Services
-10
-15
World
-20
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
-20
2001
2014
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2005-09
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015-20
-5.6
2.4
-2.7
3.2
5.7
-6.8
5.0
-0.8
1.0
15.0
6.8
-0.8
5.5
-7.0
6.0
-0.1
-5.1
10.7
19.2
8.0
-10.8
-5.1
3.0
7.5
4.8
8.3
5.7
8.0
12.4
10.5
5.0
-0.6
-1.8
3.9
6.3
0.9
7.4
6.9
6.9
9.3
6.7
3.8
8.1
1.4
4.4
6.7
1.0
7.5
6.4
7.0
11.3
6.7
5.1
9.0
3.9
4.4
6.0
1.0
6.5
6.5
7.1
7.1
6.0
5.1
8.2
5.3
4.4
5.1
1.0
5.4
5.4
5.7
5.7
5.0
5.0
6.4
5.8
Romania
Last year
Other chemicals nec
Electric fittings
Motor vehicle bodies & parts
Other electrical equipment
Non-ferrous metals
Iron & steel
Motors,generators&transformers
Casting
Paints, varnishes &c.
Wood & wood products
48.4
40.9
38.4
38.3
37.3
35.1
30.5
26.4
25.8
19.2
Next 5 years
12.7
10.9
9.4
9.3
9.2
9.2
9.1
9.1
8.8
8.4
Last year
Ships, rolling stock & etc.
Electronic components
Aerospace
Consumer electronics
Tobacco
Oth. special purpose machinery
Agro-chemicals
Agricultural machinery
Other precision equipment
Bricks, cement, plaster etc
-39.9
-31.5
-25.4
-25.0
-14.8
-12.2
-11.8
-10.0
-9.2
-8.2
Next 5 years
Oil extraction
Coal extraction
Printing & publishing
Man-made fibres
Motors,generators&transformers
Other electrical equipment
Garments etc
Leather goods
Textiles
Tobacco
-2.3
1.9
2.5
4.0
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.2
Romania
NACE
Consumer non-durable goods
Food, beverages & tobacco
Textiles, leather & clothing
Printing & publishing
Pharmaceuticals
Soaps, detergents etc
Consumer durable goods
Domestic appliances
Consumer electronics
Other
Intermediate goods
Wood & wood products
Pulp & paper
Fuel
Basic chemicals
Paints, varnishes etc
Other chemicals nec
Man made fibres
Rubber & plastics
Non-metallic minerals
Basic metals
Electric fittings
Other electrical equipment
Electronic components
Investment goods
Metal products
General purpose machinery
Special purpose machinery excl
domestic appliances
Computers & office equipment
Motors, generators & transformers
Telecommunication equipment
Precision & optical instruments
Motor vehicles & parts
Other means of transport
All Manufacturing
% of Manufacturing
(2010)
US $ Billion
(2010)
Average %
growth 2006-2010
Average %
growth 2011-2015
15,16
17,18,19
22
244
245
52.1
43.6
5.1
2.5
0.7
0.2
11.74
9.84
1.15
0.55
0.17
0.03
4.4
6.4
-7.2
4.9
4.1
2.4
6.2
6.6
4.2
2.5
5.9
5.1
297
323
36,37
3.7
0.6
0.0
3.1
0.83
0.13
0.01
0.69
-6.1
1.1
-26.0
-6.5
7.0
8.3
8.8
6.7
20
21
23
241-242
243
246
247
25
26
27
312-315
316
321
24.9
4.8
1.4
2.3
4.4
0.7
0.3
0.0
3.0
0.6
1.8
5.1
0.4
0.0
5.61
1.09
0.32
0.52
1.00
0.16
0.06
0.01
0.68
0.14
0.40
1.15
0.09
0.00
7.2
11.9
2.1
-4.3
3.2
11.4
22.5
-4.4
14.3
3.6
-5.0
22.6
20.3
-32.5
7.0
7.6
7.3
7.7
6.5
5.2
5.0
4.0
8.1
8.0
5.1
7.1
4.1
9.2
28
291-292
293-296
19.3
3.9
1.7
1.0
4.36
0.89
0.39
0.23
8.4
7.9
9.3
-6.0
9.2
8.3
9.3
10.0
30
311
1.3
0.9
0.30
0.21
5.9
13.6
7.6
4.1
322
33
34
35
0.4
0.1
8.4
1.5
0.09
0.02
1.90
0.33
8.7
-10.2
16.9
-5.4
7.4
8.4
10.8
6.6
100
22.54
5.2
7.1
Romania
% of Manufacturing
2010
2015
% of GDP
2010
2015
% of World Output
2010
2015
15,16
17,18,19
22
244
245
52.09
43.65
5.09
3.88
0.75
0.15
50.07
42.81
4.44
3.42
0.71
0.14
11.13
9.32
1.09
0.83
0.16
0.03
12.16
10.40
1.08
0.83
0.17
0.03
0.58
1.00
0.35
0.20
0.05
0.03
0.67
1.17
0.36
0.22
0.05
0.03
297
323
36,37
3.67
0.57
0.05
3.05
3.66
0.61
0.05
3.00
0.78
0.12
0.01
0.65
0.89
0.15
0.01
0.73
0.19
0.14
0.01
0.29
0.21
0.15
0.01
0.35
20
21
23
241-242
243
246
247
25
26
27
312-315
316
321
24.89
4.82
1.43
2.28
4.43
0.71
0.26
0.04
3.02
0.64
1.75
5.11
0.38
0.00
24.87
4.95
1.45
2.35
4.31
0.65
0.24
0.04
3.17
0.67
1.60
5.11
0.33
0.00
5.32
1.03
0.31
0.49
0.95
0.15
0.06
0.01
0.65
0.14
0.37
1.09
0.08
0.00
6.04
1.20
0.35
0.57
1.05
0.16
0.06
0.01
0.77
0.16
0.39
1.24
0.08
0.00
0.18
1.01
0.17
0.15
0.24
0.32
0.08
0.02
0.21
0.05
0.07
0.69
0.10
0.00
0.19
1.10
0.21
0.17
0.25
0.32
0.08
0.01
0.23
0.06
0.07
0.70
0.09
0.00
28
291-292
293-296
19.34
3.94
1.74
1.01
21.40
4.16
1.93
1.15
4.13
0.84
0.37
0.22
5.20
1.01
0.47
0.28
0.16
0.20
0.10
0.07
0.18
0.22
0.11
0.08
30
311
1.33
0.91
1.36
0.79
0.28
0.20
0.33
0.19
0.20
0.34
0.21
0.31
322
33
34
35
0.40
0.10
8.44
1.47
0.41
0.11
10.03
1.44
0.09
0.02
1.80
0.31
0.10
0.03
2.44
0.35
0.06
0.01
0.30
0.12
0.06
0.01
0.36
0.11
21.36
24.29
0.27
0.30
Romania
Paper Other
etc 4% 3%
Chemicals etc
2%
50
30
Consumer goods
Investment
goods
40
Forecast
20
Non-Metallic
min 0%
Basic metals
2%
Metal products
nec 2%
Mech eng
3%
Other Trans
1%
Source: Oxford Economics
Motor veh
8%
Computers etc
1%
Elec eng
7%
10
0
-10
Intermediate
goods
-20
-30
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
% year
% year
70
Consumer
non-durables
60
Other manufacturing
30
Forecast
50
Domestic
appliances
2012
2014
Forecast
20
10
40
30
-10
20
-20
10
-30
-40
-10
Consumer
durables
-20
-30
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Consumer
durables
-50
2008
2010
2012
2014
-60
1998
2000
Consumer electronics
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
% year
% year
50
Printing &
publishing
Pharmaceuticals
Forecast
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Soaps,
detergents etc
-30
-40
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Food, beverages
275
& tobacco
250
225
200
Textiles,
175
Consumer nonleather &
150
durables
clothing
125
100
75
50
25
0
-25
-50
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Source: Oxford Economics
2014
Forecast
2010
2012
2014
Romania
% year
% year
150
125
Basic
chemicals
40
Coke, petroleum
& nuclear fuel
Forecast
100
30
20
75
10
50
25
-10
-20
-25
-30
-50
-40
-75
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2008
% year
% year
Electrical fittings &
equipment
150
100
50
Basic metals
Precision office
equipment
40
Non-metallic
minerals
2010
Motor vehicles
& parts
2012
2014
Forecast
30
20
50
10
0
-10
-20
-50
Forecast
Electrical components
-100
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Other means of
transport
-30
-40
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
% year
% year
40
Metal products
Forecast
300
2010
Telecommunication
equipment
Computer &
office equipment
200
20
2014
Forecast
250
30
2012
150
10
100
0
50
-10
-20
-50
Machinery
-30
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
-100
1998
Motors, generators
& transformers
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Romania
NACE rev1
industry code
01,02,05
10-41
10-14
15-37
40,41
45
50-74
Bn, Local
currency
2005
24.292
71.731
6.081
50.959
27.629
3.303
11.549
8.478
14.691
18.865
144.519
%ch
Average Annual growth
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020
-14.3 -0.8
3.0
3.9
4.4
4.4
4.4
-2.1
4.0
4.4
-4.7
5.5
7.5
6.3
6.7
6.0
5.3
4.0
6.4
5.1
-12.0 -7.0
4.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
-3.8
1.7
1.0
-6.5
6.0
8.3
7.4
7.5
6.5
5.7
5.2
7.1
5.3
-4.9 -0.1
5.7
6.9
6.4
6.5
5.6
4.4
6.2
5.3
-14.9 -5.1
8.0
6.9
7.0
7.1
6.0
-6.1
7.0
5.7
-6.7 19.2 10.5
6.7
6.7
6.0
5.3
7.2
7.0
5.0
-8.8 10.7 12.4
9.3 11.3
7.1
6.1
8.4
9.2
5.7
6.8
8.0
5.0
3.8
5.1
5.1
5.1
2.2
4.8
5.0
-13.3 -10.8 -0.6
8.1
9.0
8.2
7.6
10.0
6.4
6.1
-7.5 -5.1 -1.8
1.4
3.9
5.3
5.8
3.1
2.9
5.8
Bn, Local
NACE rev1
currency
industry code
2005
15,16
21.023
15
20.921
18.007
15 less 159
159
2.914
16
0.102
4.852
17,18,19
17
1.453
2.448
18
19
0.951
22
2.109
0.400
244
245
0.089
%ch
Average Annual growth
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020
-2.6 -1.2
6.4
7.3
6.8
6.9
5.8
6.4
6.6
5.6
-2.6 -1.1
6.4
7.4
6.8
6.9
5.9
6.4
6.7
5.6
-1.7 -1.3
6.4
7.4
6.8
6.9
5.9
6.6
6.7
5.6
-8.1 -0.3
6.4
7.4
6.8
6.9
5.9
5.4
6.7
5.6
1.9 -14.8 16.0
1.8
1.3
1.3
1.2
4.2
4.2
1.0
-24.3 10.2
5.5
4.5
3.6
3.7
3.5
-7.2
4.2
3.3
-23.3 15.1
5.5
4.5
3.6
3.7
3.5
-3.2
4.2
3.3
-26.2
6.0
5.5
4.5
3.6
3.7
3.5
-10.4
4.2
3.3
-21.9 10.9
5.5
4.5
3.6
3.7
3.5
-6.0
4.2
3.3
-0.9
0.1 -1.6
6.1
6.6
6.0
5.3
3.9
4.4
5.0
-17.5 14.2
9.2
6.1
5.4
4.5
4.4
4.1
5.9
4.1
-18.1 15.6
8.3
5.1
4.7
3.5
3.8
2.4
5.1
3.6
Romania
Bn, Local
NACE rev1
currency
industry code
2005
297
0.355
323
0.147
2.801
36
361
1.745
%ch
Average Annual growth
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020
-19.1 -2.3 15.4
6.0
6.3
7.4
6.8
1.1
8.3
6.0
-47.2 -25.0 11.7 10.1
8.8
7.9
5.8
-26.0
8.8
5.5
-13.0 -5.2
6.6
7.1
7.1
7.0
5.9
-6.5
6.7
5.6
-15.1
4.3
6.6
7.1
7.1
7.0
5.9
0.7
6.7
5.6
Bn, Local
NACE rev1
currency
2005
industry code
20
1.802
21
0.844
1.865
23
241,242
2.483
241
2.477
0.006
242
243
0.272
0.063
246
247
0.036
%ch
Average Annual growth
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020
17.0 19.2 11.4
7.5
7.2
6.5
5.8
11.9
7.6
5.5
-10.7
7.3
9.6
7.6
7.2
6.7
5.7
2.1
7.3
5.4
-13.9 -6.1
6.4
6.6
9.3
8.9
7.3
-4.3
7.7
6.0
-17.4 16.6 10.7
6.6
6.3
5.0
3.8
3.2
6.5
3.6
3.3
6.5
3.6
-17.4 16.6 10.7
6.6
6.3
5.0
3.8
-37.5 -11.8
7.6
6.0
5.3
4.4
3.2
-21.9
5.3
3.0
-10.9 25.8
9.1
5.0
4.8
3.3
3.6
11.4
5.2
3.4
2.0 48.4
7.5
5.6
5.2
2.9
3.8
22.5
5.0
3.6
-23.5
8.0
6.7
5.3
3.8
2.4
2.0
-4.4
4.0
1.8
Romania
Table 5 - Intermediate Goods
2005 prices
Rubber & plastics
Non-metallic minerals
Glass
Ceramics (excluding tiles)
Bricks, cement, plaster etc
Basic metals
Iron & steel
Non-ferrous metals
Casting
Electric fittings
Other electrical equipment
Electronic components
Bn, Local
NACE rev1
currency
industry code
2005
25
1.016
26
0.353
0.148
261
262
0.128
263-268
0.077
1.487
27
271-273
1.077
0.286
274
275
0.124
312-315
1.214
0.100
316
321
0.014
%ch
Average Annual growth
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020
-6.8 13.8 10.2
9.6
8.0
6.9
6.0
14.3
8.1
5.7
-30.6
0.5
7.9
9.1 10.5
7.0
5.4
3.6
8.0
4.7
-31.7 -1.4
7.1
9.1
9.8
5.8
4.8
2.1
7.3
4.2
-27.1
5.2
7.4
9.6 11.8
7.9
5.3
9.0
8.4
4.6
-36.4 -8.2 11.4
7.7
7.7
7.7
7.6
-5.0
8.4
6.4
-36.2 35.0 10.8
3.8
3.3
3.9
3.7
-5.0
5.1
3.1
-36.2 35.1 11.2
4.0
3.3
3.9
3.7
-4.8
5.2
3.0
-35.1 37.3
9.6
3.3
3.6
3.9
3.7
-3.3
4.8
3.3
-40.3 26.4
9.6
3.0
3.3
3.9
3.2
-11.0
4.6
3.0
16.8 40.9 12.1
5.6
5.9
6.0
5.9
22.6
7.1
5.6
14.6 38.3 11.9
2.0
2.3
2.3
2.2
20.3
4.1
2.0
-51.8 -31.5 13.2 10.1
8.8
7.9
6.3
-32.5
9.2
4.5
Bn, Local
NACE rev1
currency
industry code
2005
28
1.767
291,292
0.732
0.594
291
292
0.138
293
0.241
0.191
294
295
0.472
0.000
296
30
0.653
311
0.318
%ch
Average Annual growth
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020
-13.8 -2.7 11.5
8.4
7.3
7.4
6.8
7.9
8.3
5.8
-12.5
5.7 21.3
5.7
5.9
7.3
7.2
9.3
9.3
6.0
-12.6
5.5 21.5
5.6
5.9
7.4
7.3
9.1
9.4
6.0
-11.9
6.3 20.6
6.0
5.9
7.2
7.1
10.0
9.2
5.8
-25.5 -10.0 20.2
2.0
2.2
3.3
2.7
-6.9
5.9
1.9
-19.1 -2.3 19.8
6.0
6.3
7.4
6.8
1.1
9.1
6.0
-27.3 -12.2 19.7 12.8 12.2 12.3
7.0
-9.2
12.7
6.5
-24.4
7.5 11.9
4.5
7.4
7.4
6.8
5.9
7.6
5.6
8.2 30.5 11.8
2.0
2.3
2.3
2.2
13.6
4.1
2.0
Romania
Bn, Local
NACE rev1
currency
2005
industry code
322
0.175
33
0.115
0.017
331
332-335
0.098
34,35
3.813
2.537
34
341
0.292
2.245
342,343
35
1.276
353
0.594
0.682
35 less 353
2009
-22.5
-35.9
-34.6
-36.1
0.8
9.9
-16.7
11.3
-18.7
-12.3
-29.3
Bn, Local
NACE rev1
currency
industry code
2005
28,29,31
5.391
29
1.992
1.968
31,32
30,32,33
1.104
30-33
2.736
0.336
32
%ch
Average Annual growth
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020
-6.1 14.0 13.8
6.3
6.2
6.5
6.1
10.7
7.7
5.5
-18.0 -0.5 19.9
6.5
6.6
7.8
6.8
1.8
9.4
5.8
9.5 36.2 12.0
5.0
5.3
5.4
5.3
18.0
6.6
5.0
-26.1
5.8 12.0
5.4
7.2
7.1
6.5
2.3
7.6
5.5
-0.3 29.8 12.0
5.0
5.6
5.7
5.5
14.8
6.7
5.1
-28.0
4.5 11.4
7.0
6.6
6.6
6.2
-2.2
7.5
5.5
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