CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP

METHODOLOGY
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 5,066 Canadians by Chimera IVR from November 5-6, 2016. A mixture of landlines and
cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 1.38%, 19 times out of 20. Conservative Leadership Race margin of error: +/- 2.55%,
19 times out of 20. Total Conservative respondents: 1,478.

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"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected

by copyright. The information and/or data may only
be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper
credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

CANADAS DONALD TRUMP, KELLIE LEITCH, LEADS CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP RACE

November 9, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds Canadas Donald Trump, Kellie Leitch,
leading the race for Conservative Leader among Conservative Party voters. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has
a margin of error of +/- 1.38%, 19 times out of 20.
The Conservative Leadership race is now approaching a full eld, said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet
Research. Although there is still some speculation that Kevin OLeary will enter the eld, given statements he
has given to the media, weve long ago stopped including his name in our surveys - we dont expect him to enter
the race, especially now that there is a full eld that has been actively campaigning.
Kellie Leitch has taken the lead among Conservative Party supporters at 19%, followed by a close pack of
contenders that includes Andrew Scheer (14%), Michael Chong (12%), Maxime Bernier (11%) and Erin O'Toole
(11%). 18% of Voters are Undecided.
Following Donald Trumps surprise victory last night Leitch has been quick to tie herself to Trumps victory. She
has been making waves in Canada by proposing a Canadian Values test for new immigrants. Now, with a Trump
Victory in the United States, we have to wonder if this strategy will pay dividends here in Canada. There are a
number of parallels between Leitch and Trump: both are anti-establishment candidates that have been accused
of pandering to xenophobia.
Other contenders continue to struggle for attention in a very crowded eld. New contenders Chris Alexander
(2%), Steve Blaney (1%), Lisa Raitt (4%), Daniel Lindsay (0%) and Andrew Saxton (0%) will have a hard time
breaking out of the pack and making a name for themselves. They join Deepak Obrhai (3%) and Brad Trost (3%)
in a large group of candidates with limited chances of success.
Andrew Scheer leads the pack in favourability with a plus 23, 34% approval versus just 11% disapproval among
Conservative voters. He is followed by Erin O'Toole (+18), Michael Chong (+14), Lisa Raitt (+11), Kelly Leitch (+9),
and Chris Alexander (+7) in the net positive approvals. Among those with negative favourability, Brad Trost
scores lowest with a -9, including 8% approval, versus 17% disapproval. He is followed by Maxime Bernier with a
-8 that includes 21% approval and 29% disapproval. The rest of the eld hovers just above or below 0.
On the national scene we nd a similar level of support for the Liberal Party as we have previously - though it
has dipped ever so slightly. We will continue to monitor to see if a trend emerges, but for now we are still in a
deep red Liberal honeymoon despite the economic update and other negative news, nished Maggi.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With years of political experience at all three levels of government,
President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion,
having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and
a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm in several by
elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to
correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available from Ottawa: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For More Information: David Valentin, david@mainstreetresearch.ca, 514-913-5524

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SAMPLE SIZES & MARGINS OF ERROR

*19 times out of 20

A4

If a Federal Election were held today, which party

would you support?

A5

If a Federal Election were held today, which party

would you support?

A6

If a Federal Election were held today, which party

would you support?

A7

Decided and Leaning

A8

Decided and Leaning

A9

Decided and Leaning

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Favourability Ratings
[Conservative Voters Only]

Obhrai

A11

Changes from September

Obhrai

A12

Changes from September

Obhrai

A13

Conservative Leadership
[Conservative Voters Only]

A14

Conservative Leadership
[Conservative Voters Only]

Deepak Obhrai

A15

Conservative Leadership
[Conservative Voters Only]

Deepak Obhrai

A16

SCRIPT

If a Federal Election were held today, which party would you support?
Conservative Party led by Rona Ambrose
NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Bloc Qubcois led by Rheal Fortin
Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
And which party are you leaning towards? [Undecided Only]
Conservative Party led by Rona Ambrose
NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Bloc Qubcois led by Rheal Fortin
Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
The Conservative Party is holding a leadership race to choose a new leader. Of the following
candidates, whom would you vote for if you could to be the next Conservative Leader? [Conservative
Decided & Leaning Voters Only]
Chris Alexander
Maxime Bernier
Steve Blaney
Michael Chong
Kellie Leitch
Daniel Lindsay
Deepak Obrahai
Erin O'Toole
Lisa Raitt
Andrew Saxton
Andrew Scheer
Brad Trost
Undecided
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of *Candidate Name*?
Favourable
Unfavourable
Not Sure
Not Familiar with [Candidate Name]

CALGARY GREENWAY

WHITBY

Most Accurate Pollster of the Calgary

Greenway by election.

Most Accurate Pollster of the

Whitby by election.

SASKATCHEWAN

MANITOBA

Most Active Pollster of Saskatchewans

general election, top results within MoE.

Most Active Pollster of Manitobas general

election, top results within MoE.

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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