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An Investigation of FieldingIndependent Pitching Statistics

Xavier Loinaz
12660 Corte Madera Ln., Los Altos Hills, CA, 94022
(650) 843-1078
x.e.loinaz@gmail.com
Henry M. Gunn High School
Grade 11

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Predicting player performance is critical in building successful baseball teams. Major
League Baseball teams hire tens of scouts and statistical analysts to predict how young players
may turn out, or how players on opposing teams may perform in the future. Based off these
predictions, a team will acquire certain players with the goal of creating the strongest possible
roster.
As baseball has progressed, the process for player evaluation has been refined, especially
with the recent emergence of sabermetrics. Sabermetrics is the analysis of baseball through
objective methods, such as statistical analysis. In the past fifteen or so years, teams have started
to rely more heavily on statistical analysis, as evidenced by the establishment of analytics
departments on every MLB team.
Sabermetrics has even been popularized to the point where everyday baseball fans use
sabermetric statistics fairly regularly. On-base percentage, once a rarely used statistic
occasionally found on the back of baseball cards, is now commonly shown in the slash line of
MLB players when they bat on television. Other statistics, such as WAR (Wins Above
Replacement), which attempts to quantify a players total contribution to his team, are now
commonly cited by baseball analysts.
Sabermetrics, however, have been especially important in evaluating pitchers. Pitching
performance is known to be volatile compared to hitting performance, so having statistics that
can predict pitching performance are especially useful.
One popular statistic for more accurately quantifying and predicting pitching
performance is FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). FIP attempts to approximate a pitchers
performance independent of factors which the pitcher cannot directly control himself, such as his

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defenses performance. For example, a good pitcher with a weak defense can induce lots of weak
contact but still give up lots of runs due to his defenses inability to successfully field a lot of
balls. Additionally, luck may play a significant factor in how many runs a pitcher concedes. A
pitcher may be unlucky and give up lots of bloop hits, or weakly hit balls that land away from
fielders. Thus, FIP focuses on the factors that pitchers can directly control, such as strikeouts,
walks, hit batsmen, and home runs.
The formula for FIP is:
FIP = (13*HR + 3*(BB + HBP) - 2*K) / IP + FIP constant
where HR is home runs allowed, BB is walks allowed, HBP is hit batsmen, K is strikeouts, and
IP is innings pitched. FIP is scaled to ERA (Earned Run Average) by the FIP constant, and can be
read the same way as ERA (i.e., lower FIP corresponds to better performance).
FIPs formula may look complicated, but all it does is weight certain pitching statistics
per inning pitched. Because a favorable FIP is one that is lower, strikeouts are weighted
negatively since they contribute to favorable pitching performance, and home runs, walks, and
hit batsmen are weighted positively since they contribute to unfavorable pitching performance.
Home runs are weighted the most positively (at a coefficient of 13) because they are most
detrimental to pitching performance and cause the most runs to be allowed.

Variability Between FIP and ERA

FIP provides an estimate of pitching performance independent of defensive performance
and luck. If it is compared to ERA, the variance between the two statistics can provide an
estimate of how much defensive performance or luck affects the number of runs allowed by a
pitcher. FIP and ERA can be compared by creating a distribution of FIP - ERA for yearly

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pitching performance. In Figure 1, a distribution of FIP - ERA for all single-season starting
pitching performances
(minimum 162 innings) from
2011 to 2015 is created using
FanGraphs databases. The
spread of this distribution is
fairly symmetrical. The
average FIP - ERA is 0.058
runs, meaning that starting
pitchers tend to have slightly

Figure 1. The distribution of FIP - ERA for yearly pitching performance

from 2011 to 2015 for starting pitchers (minimum 162 innings pitched).

higher FIPs than ERAs. The standard deviation is 0.498 runs, signifying that on average starting
pitchers ERAs tend to differ from the average FIP - ERA of 0.058 by 0.498 runs. Thus,
defensive performance and
luck cause a starting pitchers
ERA to differ from what it
would be based off fieldingindependent factors by about a
half run.
Figure 2 shows a
distribution of FIP - ERA for
all single-season relief pitching

Figure 2. The distribution of FIP - ERA for yearly pitching performance

from 2011 to 2015 for relief pitchers (minimum 50 innings pitched).

performances (minimum 50 innings) from 2011 to 2015. Like the distribution for starting

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pitchers, the spread of FIP - ERA for relief pitchers is fairly symmetrical. However, the average
FIP - ERA is 0.253 runs, meaning that on average relief pitchers have significantly higher FIPs
than ERAs. A possible reason for this could be that relief pitchers often throw harder than starters
and can induce weaker contact from hitters, thus allowing the defense to convert more outs off
balls in play than they would normally. Additionally, the standard deviation is 0.734 runs,
meaning that on average relief pitchers ERAs tend to differ from the average FIP - ERA of 0.253
by 0.734 runs. Thus, defensive performance and luck cause a relief pitchers ERA to differ from
what it would be based off fielding-independent factors by about one run.

Predicting Future Pitching Performance

FIP is also useful in that it can help predict future pitching performance. Since the
fielding-independent statistics that FIP uses in its formula (strikeouts, home runs, walks, hit
batsmen) tend to stay more
constant year to year than ERA,
FIP tends to be consistent than
ERA year to year. Thus, due to
its lack of variability, it can be a
better estimator for future
pitching performance.
To determine how well
ERA and FIP predict future
pitching performance, the pitching
statistics for the 50 pitchers that

Figure 3. The relationship between 2014 and 2015 ERA of pitchers

that pitched at least 162 innings in both 2014 and 2015. The line of
best fit is also shown.

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pitched at least 162 innings in both 2014 and 2015 are obtained. 2014 ERA and FIP are tested to
see how well they predict 2015 ERA by looking at their correlation with 2015 ERA. This is
demonstrated by Figure 3, which tests how well 2014 ERA predicts 2015 ERA. There is a
moderate, positive, linear relationship with a correlation coefficient of 0.382. Thus, it can be said
that 2014 ERA is a moderately
accurate predictor of 2015
ERA. Figure 4 demonstrates
how well 2014 FIP predicts
2015 ERA. There is also a
moderate, positive, linear
relationship, but the correlation
coefficient is higher at 0.462.
Thus, there is a stronger

Figure 4. The relationship between the 2014 FIP and 2015 ERA of
pitchers that pitched at least 162 innings in both 2014 and 2015. The
line of best fit is also shown.

relationship between 2014 FIP and

2015 ERA, and it can be said that 2014 FIP is a better predictor of 2015 ERA.
However, FIP is not the only fielding-independent statistic that is commonly used. xFIP is
a variation of FIP that uses a pitchers fly ball rate instead of home runs in its formula. The logic
behind this is that fly balls are a strong indicator of how many home runs a pitcher will give up
in the future an even better indicator than home runs themselves. The formula for xFIP is:
FIP = (13*(Fly Balls*League Home Run per Fly Ball Rate) + 3*(BB + HBP) - 2*K) / IP +
FIP constant

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Figure 5 demonstrates the
relationship between 2014 xFIP and
2015 ERA. Similar to the
aforementioned relationships, there
is a moderate, positive, linear
relationship, but with a higher
correlation coefficient at 0.520.
Thus, in comparison to ERA and
FIP, xFIP is the strongest predictor for

Figure 5. The relationship between the 2014 xFIP and 2015

ERA of pitchers that pitched at least 162 innings in both 2014
and 2015. The line of best fit is also shown.

pitcher success.
SIERA is another fielding-independent statistic. It is a variation of xFIP, but it accounts
for various factors that can slightly
alter xFIP. For example, each walk
given up by a pitcher is less
detrimental if he generally walks
few batters, whereas each walk
given up by a pitcher is more
detrimental if he generally walks
more batters. Figure 6 shows the
relationship between 2014 SIERA
and 2015 ERA. There is a moderate,

Figure 6. The relationship between the 2014 SIERA and 2015

ERA of pitchers that pitched at least 162 innings in both 2014
and 2015. The line of best fit is also shown.

positive, linear relationship with a correlation coefficient of 0.517. This is almost the same as

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xFIPs correlation coefficient with 2015 ERA, which was 0.520. Overall, there is likely no
significant difference in predicting ERA using SIERA or xFIP.

Conclusion
What can be concluded from this paper is how much defensive performance and luck can
alter a pitchers ERA, and what statistics should be used to predict future performance for
pitchers. On average defensive performance and luck account provide about half a run in
variation of a starting pitchers ERA, and about one run in variation of a relief pitchers ERA.
Additionally, the statistics that are most effective in predicting future pitching performance are
xFIP and SIERA.

Acknowledgments
I want to thank my AP Statistics teacher, Ms. Congress, for teaching me a lot of the
material about statistics that I applied in this paper.

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