Forex TechVista 20110621

Cross Asset
Technical Vista
June 21, 2011
International Markets Analysis

FINANCIAL PRODUCTS SALES DIVISION
Important Disclaimer in page 2
Disclaimer
The information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we make
no representation or warranty, express or implied, with respect to the fairness, correctness, accuracy or completeness of
such information. In addition we have no obligation to update, modify or amend this communication or to otherwise notify a
recipient in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein,
changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. We are not acting and do not purport to act in any way as an advisor or in a
fiduciary capacity. We therefore strongly suggest that recipients seek their own independent advice in relation to any
investment, financial, legal, tax, accounting or regulatory issues discussed herein. Analyses and opinions contained herein
may be based on assumptions that if altered can change the analyses or opinions expressed. Nothing contained herein
shall constitute any representation or warranty as to future performance of any financial instrument, credit, currency rate or
other market or economic measure.
Furthermore, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This communication is provided for
information purposes only. It is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor to enter into any
agreement or contract with Alpha bank or any affiliates.
In addition, because this communication is a summary only it may not contain all material terms and therefore this
communication in and of itself should not form the basis for any investment decision. Financial instruments that may be
discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors, and potential investors must make an independent assessment of
the appropriateness of any transaction in light of their own objectives and circumstances, including the possible risks and
benefits of entering into such a transaction. By accepting receipt of this communication the recipient will be deemed to
represent that they possess, either individually or through their advisers, sufficient investment expertise to understand the
risks involved in any purchase or sale of any financial instrument discussed herein.
Risk Sentiment
Eurozone Risk Sentiment Index
Ris k Appetite
Ris k Appetite
0,35
0,35
0,1
0,1
-0,15
-0,15
-0,4
-0,4
-0,65
-0,65
-0,9
-0,9
-1,15
-1,15
Ris k Avers ion
Ris k Avers ion

-1,4
7 /0 7
9 /0 7
1 1 /0 7
1 /0 8
3 /0 8
5 /0 8
7 /0 8
9 /0 8
1 1 /0 8
1 /0 9
3 /0 9
5 /0 9
7 /0 9
9 /0 9
1 1 /0 9
1 /1 0
3 /1 0
5 /1 0
7 /1 0
9 /1 0
1 1 /1 0
1 /1 1
3 /1 1
5 /1 1
-1,4
7 /0 7
9 /0 7
1 1 /0 7
1 /0 8
3 /0 8
5 /0 8
7 /0 8
9 /0 8
1 1 /0 8
1 /0 9
3 /0 9
5 /0 9
7 /0 9
9 /0 9
1 1 /0 9
1 /1 0
3 /1 0
5 /1 0
7 /1 0
9 /1 0
1 1 /1 0
1 /1 1
3 /1 1
5 /1 1
0,6
US Risk Sentiment Index

0,6
Source: Bloomberg,
Bloomberg, International Markets Analysis
The global risk sentiment has deteriorated, as the Eurozone debt crisis is worsening and the
global growth is slowing.
EUR/USD
Daily QEUR=
2/22/2008 - 8/24/2011 (GMT)
100.0% 1.6038
Price
USD
Cndl, QEUR=, Bid

6/21/2011, 1.4306, 1.4383, 1.4304, 1.4352
SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 200
6/21/2011, 1.3839
6/21/2011, 1.4364
6/21/2011, 1.4411
76.4% 1.5055
1.56
1.52
0.0%
1.4943
1.48
23.6% 1.4453
61.8% 1.4448
1.44
38.2% 1.415
50.0% 1.3956
1.4
50.0% 1.3905
61.8% 1.366
38.2% 1.3465
1.36
76.4% 1.3357
1.32
23.6% 1.2858
100.0% 1.2867
1.28
1.24
Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis1.2
0.0%
.1234
1.1875
MACD, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential

6/21/2011, -0.0011, 0.0005
Value
USD
-0.02
.1234
Q2 08
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Wide intraday range for EUR/USD will probably continue in the following weeks. Some short term
pressure on EUR/USD is indicated by the downwards crossing of 55 days MA by the 21 days MA
(27/5/11) and the downwards crossing of the 21 days MA from 5 days MA (15/6/11).
Support levels for EUR/USD, at $1.4124 (17/6/11 low), at $1.4065 (26/5/11 low) and at $1.3968
(23/5/11 low).
Resistance levels for EUR/USD in the short term at $1.4498 (14/6/11 high) and $1.4696 (7/6/11
high).
In the mid-term resistance level at $1.4710 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement $1.4939-$1.3968) and at
$1.4939 (4/5/11 high), while support level is placed at $1.3839 (200 DMA).
USD/JPY
Daily QJPY=
2/8/2010 - 7/18/2011 (GMT)

Price
/USD
100.0% 94.98
BarOHLC, QJPY=, Bid
6/21/2011, 80.26, 80.34, 80.06, 80.16
SMA, QJPY=, Bid(Last), 200
6/21/2011, 82.31
SMA, QJPY=, Bid(Last), 55
6/21/2011, 81.52
BBand, QJPY=, Bid(Last), 21, Simple, 2.0
6/21/2011, 81.86, 80.66, 79.47
76.4% 90.77
94
93
92
91
90
89
61.8% 88.18
88
87
50.0% 86.07
86
85
84
38.2% 83.97
83
82
23.6% 81.37
81
80
79
78
0.0%
16 01
16
Q1 2010
01
77.17
16
03 17
.12
01
Q2 2010
16
01
16
02 16
01
Q3 2010
16
01
18 01
16
01
Q4 2010
16
03 17
01
16 01
Q1 2011
16
01
18 02 16
01
16
01 18
Q2 2011
Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis
USD/JPY is still in short term range trading mode (1 month horizon).
Support is placed at 79.67 (8/6/11 low) and at 79.55 (5/5/11 low).

Resistance levels at 82.31 (200 DMA) and at 83.09 (20/4/11 high).
The medium term downwards trend has not reversed as long as the pair remains below the
level of 86.00.
EUR/JPY
Daily QEURJPY=
3/30/2009 - 8/3/2011 (GMT)

BarOHLC, QEURJPY=, Bid
6/21/2011, 114.86, 115.35, 114.64, 114.78
SMA, QEURJPY=, Bid(Last), 200
6/21/2011, 113.89
6/21/2011, 117.50
6/21/2011, 115.86
100.0% 139.23
76.4% 131.25
61.8% 126.32
138
135
132
129
126
0.0%
50.0% 122.33
38.2% 118.35
23.6% 113.41
0.0%
Price
JPY
123.3
123
23.6% 119.6
120
38.2% 117.31
117
61.8% 113.61
114
76.4% 111.32
111
100.0% 107.62
108
105.44
105
.12
Apr May Jun
Q2 2009
Jul
Aug Sep
Oct Nov Dec
Jan Feb Mar
Q3 2009
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
Apr May
Jun
Q2 2010
Jul Aug
Sep
Oct Nov Dec
Jan Feb Mar
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Apr May
Jun
Jul Aug
Q2 2011
Source: Reuters,
EUR/JPY seems to have formed a base at the area of 110.72 (18/3/11 low) - 113.41 (16/5/11
low). This area may be revisited in the short term and be reconfirmed as strong support area.
Resistance levels at 117.89 (7/6/11 high), 119.78 (5/5/11 high) and 121.83 (28/4/11 high).
GBP/USD
Daily QGBP=
6/5/2009 - 7/28/2011 (GMT)

Price
USD
1.68
1.66
1.64
1.62
1.6
1.58
1.56
1.54
Cndl, QGBP=, Bid
6/20/2011, 1.6163, 1.6184, 1.6107, 1.6166
SMA, QGBP=, Bid(Last), 55
6/20/2011, 1.6356
SMA, QGBP=, Bid(Last), 200
6/20/2011, 1.6021
BBand, QGBP=, Bid(Last), 21, Simple, 2.0
6/20/2011, 1.6554, 1.6322, 1.6091
BBand, QGBP=, Bid(Last), 21, Simple, 2.0
6/20/2011, 1.6554, 1.6322, 1.6091
1.52
1.5
1.48
1.46
1.44
1.42
.1234
Source: Reuters,
RSI, QGBP=, Bid(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing

6/20/2011, 38.637
Value
USD
60
40
20
.123
Jul
Aug
Sep
Q3 2009
Oct
Nov
Dec
Q4 2009
Jan
Feb
Mar
Q1 2010
Apr
May
Jun
Q2 2010
Jul
Aug
Sep
Q3 2010
Oct
Nov
Dec
Q4 2010
Jan
Feb
Mar
Q1 2011
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Q2 2011
GBP/USD is in range trading mode with bias to the downside in the short term. The medium term
uptrend remains intact, however it has been losing momentum.
Support placed at $1.6020 (200 DMA), at $1.5934 (28/3/11 low) and at $1.5750 (25/1/11 low).
Resistance levels are found at the area of 1.6320-60 (21 & 55 DMA), at $1.6546 (31/5/11 high)
and at $1.6745 (28/4/11 high).
EUR/GBP
Daily QEURGBP=
9/15/2008 - 8/11/2011 (GMT)
100.0% 0.9803
SMA, QEURGBP=, Bid(Last), 200

6/20/2011, 0.8630
6/20/2011, 0.8807
Cndl, QEURGBP=, Bid
6/20/2011, 0.8832, 0.8843, 0.8788, 0.8789
6/20/2011, 0.8787
76.4% 0.9393
Price
GBP
0.96
0.95
0.94
0.93
0.92
61.8% 0.9139
0.91
0.0%
0.9042
0.9
50.0% 0.8934
0.89
23.6% 0.8811
0.88
38.2% 0.8729
0.87
38.2% 0.8668
0.86
50.0% 0.8553
23.6% 0.8475
0.85
61.8% 0.8438
0.84
0.83
76.4% 0.8295
0.82
0.0%
0.8065
0.81
100.0% 0.8065
Source: Reuters,
MACD, QEURGBP=, Bid(Last), 12, 26, 9, Weighted

6/20/2011, 0.0008, 0.0015
.1234
Value
GBP
0
-0.01
.1234
O
Q4 2008
Q1 2009
Q2 2009
Q3 2009
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 11
EUR/GBP is still in range trading mode. The downwards break of the 55 days MA from 21 days
MA indicates that the pair may move to the downside the following weeks. The medium term
upwards trend remains in place.
Support levels are found at 0.8630 (200 DMA) and at 0.8438-60 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement
0.8065-0.9042 and medium uptrend line).
Resistance levels are placed at 0.8975 (8/6/11 high), at 0.9042 (5/5/11 high) and at 0.9139
(61.8% Fibonacci retracement 0.9803-0.8065).
USD/CHF
Daily QCHF=
6/18/2010 - 7/11/2011 (GMT)
Price
/USD
Cndl, QCHF=, Bid

6/20/2011, 0.8490, 0.8518, 0.8452, 0.8466
SMA, QCHF=, Bid(Last), 55
6/20/2011, 0.8722
6/20/2011, 0.9358
6/20/2011, 0.8496
1.04
1.02
100.0% 1.0065
1
0.98
0.96
76.4% 0.9654
0.94
61.8% 0.9399
0.92
50.0% 0.9193
0.9
38.2% 0.8988
0.88
23.6% 0.8733
0.86
0.84
0.0%
0.8322
.1234
MACD, QCHF=, Bid(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential
6/20/2011, -0.0074, -0.0095
Source: Reuters,
Value
/USD
-0.01
.1234
01
16
Jul 10
02
16
Aug 10
01
16
Sep 10
01
18
Oct 10
01
16
Nov 10
01
16
Dec 10
03
17
Jan 11
01
16
Feb 11
01
16
Mar 11
01
18
Apr 11
02
16
May 11
01
16
01
Jun 11
USD/CHF is trying to rebound modestly after posting new historic low (0.8322 CHF) on June 7.
The medium term downtrend is still in place.
Resistance is found at the area of 0.8549-51 CHF (15-16/5/11 highs), at the area of 0.8720-33
CHF (55 DMA & 23.6% Fibonacci retracement: 1.0065 0.8322 CHF) and at 0.8946 CHF
(13/5/11 high).
Support level at 0.8322 CHF (historic low).
EUR/CHF
Daily QEURCHF=
11/3/2008 - 8/9/2011 (GMT)

Price
CHF
1.56
Cndl, QEURCHF=, Bid

6/20/2011, 1.2116, 1.2141, 1.2015, 1.2040
SMA, QEURCHF=, Bid(Last), 21
6/20/2011, 1.2188
6/20/2011, 1.2567
6/20/2011, 1.2927
1.52
1.48
1.44
1.4
1.36
1.32
1.28
1.24
1.2
.1234
RSI, QEURCHF=, Bid(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing
6/20/2011, 39.230
Value
CHF
30
.123
Q4 2008
Q1 2009
Q2 2009
Q3 2009
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Source: Reuters,
10
EUR/CHF is in strong downtrend in the short and medium term.

Support is found at 1.1945 CHF (historic low).
Resistance levels are placed at 1.2324 CHF (1/6/11 high), 1.2570 CHF (55 DMA) and at the area
of 1.2930-40 CHF (medium term resistance trend channel & 200 DMA).
Crude Oil
Oil (WTI)
(WTI) 1stst Month Future
Daily QCLc1
5/19/2008 - 8/18/2011 (NYC)
100.0% 147.27
Price
USD
Bbl
Cndl, QCLc1, Last Trade

6/20/2011, 92.80, 93.13, 91.14, 92.24
SMA, QCLc1, Last Trade(Last), 200
6/20/2011, 92.30
6/20/2011, 103.67
6/20/2011, 98.77
76.4% 120.16
130
120
0.0%
114.84
110
61.8% 103.39
23.6% 102.9
100
38.2% 95.51
50.0% 89.84
90
50.0% 89.54
61.8% 83.57
38.2% 76.28
80
76.4% 76.19
70
100.0% 64.25
60
23.6% 59.51
50
Source: Reuters,
0.0%
40
32.4
.12
RSI, QCLc1, Last Trade(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing

6/20/2011, 29.216
Q3 2008
11
Q4 2008
Q1 2009
Value
USD
Bbl
.123
J
Q2 2009
Q3 2009
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011 Q3 11[Delayed]
Crude oil (WTI) is in downtrend in the short term. The mid term upwards trend has not reversed, as
crude oil has not yet broken the medium term uptrend line.
Support levels at the area of $90.50-60/brl (medium term uptrend line) and at the area of $89.54$89.84/brl (50% retracement $64.25-$114.84 & 50% retracement $147.27-$32.4).
Resistance level is placed at $98.80/brl (21 DMA) and at the area of $103.31-39/brl (31/5/11 &
1/6/11 high).
Spot Gold
Daily QXAU=
6/3/2010 - 7/11/2011 (GMT)
1,575.83
Price
USD
Ozs
1,520
23.6% 1,476.96
1,480
0.0%
1,440
38.2% 1,415.79
1,400
50.0% 1,366.36
1,360
1,320
Cndl, QXAU=, Bid
6/21/2011, 1,539.95, 1,545.00, 1,538.05 1,280
SMA, QXAU=, Bid(Last), 21
6/21/2011, 1,533.13
1,240
6/21/2011, 1,511.34
1,200
6/21/2011, 1,410.43
1,160
61.8% 1,316.92
76.4% 1,255.75
100.0% 1,156.88
.12
RSI, QXAU=, Bid(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing
6/21/2011, 60.605
Value
USD
Ozs
.123
16
01
Jun 10
16
Jul 10
02
16
Aug 10
01
16
Sep 10
01
18
Oct 10
01
16
Nov 10
01
16
Dec 10
03
17
Jan 11
01
16
Feb 11
01
16
Mar 11
01
18
Apr 11
02
16
May 11
01
16
01
Jun 11
Source: Reuters,
12
Gold short term upwards trend has paused somewhat, however medium term upwards trend
remains strong.
Resistance levels are found at $1,553.30/Oz (6/6/11 high) and at $1,575.80/Oz (historic high).
Support levels appear at $1,522-24/Oz (medium term uptrend line), at $1,511,30/Oz (55 DMA)
and at $1,462.40/Oz (5/5/11 low).
S&P 500
Daily Q.GSPC
9/19/2007 - 8/29/2011 (NYC)

BarOHLC, Q.GSPC, Last Trade
6/20/2011, 1,271.50, 1,280.41, 1,267.55, 1,278.36
SMA, Q.GSPC, Last Trade(Last), 55
6/20/2011, 1,322.10
6/20/2011, 1,259.80
6/20/2011, 1,298.59
100.0% 1,576.13
76.4% 1,361.47
Price
USD
1,500
1,400
1,300
61.8% 1,228.67
1,200
50.0% 1,121.34
1,100
38.2% 1,014
1,000
900
23.6% 881.21
800
Source: Reuters,
0.0%
666.55
MACD, Q.GSPC, Last Trade(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential

6/20/2011, -15.76, -14.07
N D
Q4 07
13
F M A
Q1 08
Q2 08
S O
Q3 08
N D
Q4 08
700
.12
Value
USD
F M A
Q1 09
M J
Q2 09
S O
Q3 09
N D
J F M A
M J
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
J A
S O
Q3 10
N D
Q4 10
J F M A M J
Q1 11
J A
12
Q2 11
S&P 500 has already posted a mild correction of 8.2% (16/6/11 low: 1,258.05) from the previous
peak (2/5/11: 1,370.51). The 21 days MA below 55 days MA and the 5 days MA below 21 days MA
as well as MACD indicates that some weakness remains in the short term.
Support levels in the short term at 1,258.05-1,260 (16/6/11 low & 200 DMA), 1,248.83 (16/3/11 low).
Resistance levels for the 1 month horizon at 1,300.14 (6/6/11 high), 1,317.85 (2/6/11 high).
Longer term MA s (200 DMA, 55 DMA) suggest that the mid-term bullish trend for the S&P 500
remains in place, though a bit weakened. Other trend indicators such as DMIs (weekly) contradict
with this.
Resistance level for the mid-term (3 month horizon) at 1,345.06 (1/6/11 high).
US 10YR Government Bond Yield

Daily QUS10YT=RR
12/24/2008 - 8/11/2011 (UTC)

Yield
3.9
0.0%
3.8
3.7701
3.7
3.6
3.5
23.6% 3.4311
3.4
3.3
38.2% 3.2214
3.2
3.1
50.0% 3.052
BarOHLC, QUS10YT=RR, Yield_1
6/21/2011, 2.9690, 2.9762, 2.9508, 2.9726
SMA, QUS10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 55
6/21/2011, 3.2047
6/21/2011, 3.1172
6/21/2011, 3.0140
3
2.9
61.8% 2.8825
2.8
2.7
76.4% 2.6728
2.6
2.5
2.4
100.0% 2.3339
2.3
Source: Reuters,
RSI, QUS10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing
6/21/2011, 44.984
.1234
Value
60
30
.123
Q1 2009
14
Q2 2009
Q3 2009
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 11
Support levels for the US 10year government bond yield at 2.88% (Fibonacci retracement level:
61.8% (2.33%-3.77%) and 20/6/11 low) and at 2.80% (1/12/10 low).
Resistance levels in the short term at 3.11-12% (14/6/11 high and 200 days MA) and at 3.25%
(12/5/11 high).
Resistance in the mid term at 3.46% (18/4/11 high) and at 3.62% (8/4/11 high).
German 10YR
10YR Government
Government Bond
Bond Yield
Yield
Daily QDE10YT=RR
5/19/2009 - 8/3/2011 (UTC)

Yield
3.6
0.0%
3.513
3.4
3.2
23.6% 3.177
38.2% 2.969
Cndl, QDE10YT=RR, Yield_1

6/20/2011, 2.936, 2.957, 2.906, 2.947
SMA, QDE10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 55
6/20/2011, 3.171
6/20/2011, 2.928
6/20/2011, 3.007
50.0% 2.801
2.8
61.8% 2.633
2.6
76.4% 2.425
2.4
2.2
100.0% 2.089
Source: Reuters,
RSI, QDE10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing

6/20/2011, 37.811
.123
Value
.123
MACD, QDE10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 12, 26, 9, Weighted

6/20/2011, -0.049, -0.047
Value
.123
Jun
Jul
Q2 2009
15
Aug
Sep
Q3 2009
Oct
Nov
Dec Jan
Q4 2009
Feb
Mar
Q1 2010
Apr
May
Jun
Q2 2010
Jul
Aug
Sep
Q3 2010
Oct
Nov
Dec
Q4 2010
Jan
Feb
Mar
Q1 2011
Apr
May
Jun
Q2 2011
Jul
Q3 11
Moving averages (55, 21 and 5 days) suggest that the German 10 year government bond yield is
in downtrend in the short term. However may react upwards modestly, as the German 10 year
government bond yield has reached significant support level (200 DMA: 2.93%).
Support is placed at 2.843% (5/1/11 low) and at 2.80% (50% retracement 2.089% - 3.513%).
Resistance level is found at 3.11% (7/6/11 high), at the area of 3.16-17% (55 DMA and 11/5/11
high) and at 3.33% (6/5/11 high).
US 5yr interest rate swap

Daily QUSDSB3L5Y=RR
2/6/2009 - 8/4/2011 (UTC)

Price
100.0% 3.546
BarOHLC, QUSDSB3L5Y=RR, Bid

6/21/2011, 1.848, 1.859, 1.827, 1.855
SMA, QUSDSB3L5Y=RR, Bid(Last), 55
6/21/2011, 2.077
6/21/2011, 1.874
6/21/2011, 2.017
76.4% 3.014
3.4
3.2
3
2.8
61.8% 2.685
0.0%
2.636
2.6
50.0% 2.419
2.4
23.6% 2.318
2.2
38.2% 2.153
38.2% 2.122
50.0% 1.963
23.6% 1.824
61.8% 1.804
1.8
76.4% 1.607
1.6
1.4
0.0%
1.292
100.0% 1.289
1.2
.123
Q1 2009
Q2 2009
Q3 2009
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Source: Reuters,
16
Downwards pressure on the US 5 year swap rate seems to persist.

Support level at 1.74% (8/6/11 low) and at 1.61% (76.4% Fibbonaci retracement: 1.289%2.636%).
Resistance at 1.94% (14/6/11 high) and at 2.08% (55 DMA).
Euro 5yr interest

interest rate
rate swap
swap
Daily QEURAB6E5Y=
5/5/2009 - 7/11/2011 (GMT)
0.0%
3.235
Price
EUR
3.1
3
2.9
23.6% 2.8711
2.8
2.7
38.2% 2.646
2.6
2.5
50.0% 2.464
2.4
2.3
61.8% 2.2821
Cndl, QEURAB6E5Y=, Bid
6/20/2011, 2.6760, 2.7120, 2.6280, 2.7020
SMA, QEURAB6E5Y=, Bid(Last), 55
6/20/2011, 2.9251
6/20/2011, 2.6057
6/20/2011, 2.7628
2.2
2.1
76.4% 2.0569
2
1.9
1.8
.1234
100.0% 1.693
RSI, QEURAB6E5Y=, Bid(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing
6/20/2011, 38.394
Value
EUR
.123
Jun
Jul
Q2 2009
Aug
Sep
Q3 2009
Oct
Nov
Dec
Q4 2009
Jan
Feb
Mar
Q1 2010
Apr
May
Jun
Q2 2010
Jul
Aug
Sep
Q3 2010
Oct
Nov
Dec
Q4 2010
Jan
Feb Mar
Q1 2011
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Q2 2011
Source: Reuters,
17
Euro 5yr interest rate swap remains in downwards pressure in the short term.
Support at 2.606% (200 DMA) and at 2.464% (50% retracement 1.69%-3.24%).
Resistance level is placed at 2.866% (8/6/11 high) and at 2.920% (55 DMA).
Correlation Matrix
S&P 500
Current
DXY
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
GBP/USD
USD/CHF
EUR/CHF
EUR/GBP
EUR/JPY
Bund Fut.
-1m
Current
-1m
Current
-0,2818 -0,7028 -0,3966 -0,5784 -0,5322

0,2874 0,7136 0,4738 0,6579 0,5601
0,2525 0,1475 0,4835 0,4682 0,3103
0,5087 0,6531 0,5385 0,5666 0,6981
0,5228 -0,5912 0,6575 -0,2753 0,4658
0,6547 -0,0095 0,8911 0,4198 0,7599
0,0035 0,5943 0,2779 0,5859 0,2729
0,3880 0,5929 0,6886 0,7738 0,6284
-0,4851 0,1452 -0,8062 -0,3491 -0,6487
2Y US
Current
DXY
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
GBP/USD
USD/CHF
EUR/CHF
EUR/GBP
EUR/JPY
Bund Fut.
Equity Index
Euro Stoxx 50
50 Days Correlation Matrix (Value)

Commodities
MSCI AC World
CRB
GOLD
-1m
10Y US
Current
-1m
-1m
Current
-1m
Current
-1m
Current
-1m
Current
-1m
Current
-1m
-0,7782
0,8123
0,2652
0,7447
-0,5773
0,1421
0,6751
0,7428
-0,0667
-0,6156
0,7235
0,5539
0,6823
0,3262
0,7270
0,5516
0,9190
-0,7593
-0,4074
0,5202
0,5605
0,4350
0,0359
0,7361
0,4753
0,7436
-0,7076
-0,3832
0,2388
-0,6703
0,3261
-0,7941
-0,6070
0,0900
-0,2998
0,6691
-0,8628
0,8185
-0,0930
0,8466
-0,8511
-0,2856
0,5772
0,5037
0,3291
-0,5754
0,6754
0,5644
0,6975
0,4513
0,8157
0,4593
0,8914
-0,7990
-0,5952
0,6944
0,4866
0,5934
-0,1838
0,6147
0,6208
0,8144
-0,5731
0,3418
-0,3568
-0,2805
-0,4232
-0,5384
-0,7077
-0,1917
-0,4576
0,6077
0,6572
-0,6596
-0,1471
-0,6231
0,5886
0,0766
-0,5295
-0,5554
-0,0791
0,3364
-0,3344
-0,2720
-0,5437
-0,4101
-0,5748
-0,0489
-0,4343
0,4869
0,6717
-0,7056
-0,2837
-0,5896
0,5506
-0,0524
-0,6501
-0,6813
-0,0043
2Y GE
Current
-0,0939 0,2243 -0,1212 0,2134 -0,2215

0,2554 -0,0473 0,2822 -0,0449 0,3316
0,8546 0,8286 0,8540 0,8232 0,6084
0,2559 -0,2397 0,2761 -0,1601 0,2440
0,8546 0,5964 0,8435 0,6085 0,7349
0,9503 0,8971 0,9557 0,9175 0,8786
0,1809 0,1721 0,2058 0,0911 0,3122
0,7898 0,5337 0,8091 0,5322 0,6705
-0,9644 -0,9070 -0,9632 -0,9363 -0,8471
Government Bonds
10Y GE
2Y UK
18
10Y UK
2Y JN
10Y JN
-1m
Current
-1m
Current
-1m
Current
-1m
Current
-1m
Current
-1m
-0,4686
0,5782
0,6042
0,4012
-0,2651
0,3435
0,6206
0,8134
-0,4082
-0,2914
0,4551
0,7759
0,3438
0,7265
0,9457
0,4238
0,8803
-0,9959
-0,0736
0,2534
0,8424
0,0674
0,3373
0,8763
0,3876
0,7527
-0,9693
-0,1751
0,3272
0,8291
0,3463
0,8066
0,9462
0,2152
0,8240
-0,9595
0,4680
-0,3284
0,6886
-0,3495
0,8016
0,8489
-0,2215
0,2426
-0,8354
-0,1022
0,2788
0,8806
0,2363
0,8027
0,9151
0,2366
0,8251
-0,9709
0,3424
-0,1684
0,8335
-0,2638
0,6932
0,8929
-0,0219
0,4543
-0,9388
-0,2253
0,3552
0,6811
0,3930
0,7554
0,9161
0,2182
0,7421
-0,8986
0,3955
-0,3534
0,1572
-0,2600
0,5543
0,4138
-0,3653
-0,1370
-0,4529
-0,2260
0,4051
0,8141
0,2619
0,6071
0,8063
0,4181
0,8708
-0,9226
0,1969
-0,0332
0,7699
-0,1338
0,5408
0,8204
0,0817
0,5040
-0,9276
Significant negative correlation
50 trading days rolling price correlation.
Risk Aversion Index

RA EU
RA US
WTI
Significant positive correlation
Source: Bloomberg,
Bloomberg, International Markets Analysis
EUR/USD remains positively correlated with oil prices.

USD/JPY positive correlation with US yields is still strong.
EUR/CHF exhibits positive correlation with stocks and commodities.
USD/CHF still exhibits strong negative correlation with gold prices.
Technical Analysis Synopsis

Last_Price
DXY Dollar Index
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
EUR/GBP
EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF
S&P 500 INDEX
Euro Stoxx 50 Pr
DAX INDEX
CAC 40 INDEX
NIKKEI 225
Crude Oil 1m Future
GOLD SPOT $/OZ
Copper Furture 1M
10Y GE Govt Yield
2Y GE Govt Yield
10Y US Govt Yield
2Y US Govt Yield
EUR 5 Yr IRS
US 5 Yr IRS
74.798
1.4352
1.6182
80.16
0.844
0.88684
115.04
1.21121
1278.36
2773.62
7201.18
3839.14
9459.66
94.39
1544.5
409.65
2.958
1.51
2.9671
0.3826
2.707
1.85
Percent Change to Date

Week Month Year
-0.26 0.21 -5.36
0.31 -0.32 7.22
-0.07 -1.61 3.66
0.12 -1.71 -1.21
-0.49 -1.17 -10.79
0.34
1.30
3.32
0.43 -2.04 5.69
-0.24 -1.50 -3.25
0.54 -4.97 1.65
0.12 -3.09 -0.69
0.52 -1.27 4.15
0.40 -4.19 0.90
1.16 -2.41 -7.52
1.48 -8.09 3.29
0.33
0.57
8.71
-0.16 -1.96 -7.40
-0.03 -2.05 -0.17
-0.20 -5.92 74.77
0.77 -3.06 -9.91
2.05 -18.34 -35.52
0.19 -2.33 8.67
0.57 -4.37 -14.90
Monthly trend
Range Trading
Range Trading
Range Trading
Range Trading
Downtrend
Range Trading
Range Trading
Downtrend
Downtrend
Range Trading
Range Trading
Range Trading
Range Trading
Downtrend
Range Trading
Range Trading
Range Trading
Range Trading
Downtrend
Downtrend
Downtrend
Downtrend
Range
MA's crossover Overbought/Oversold MACD Signal 3 Months trend
Upper Lower
Singal (Daily)
signal
(Daily)
76.13 73.40
Up
No Signal
Up Signal
Downtrend
1.4702 1.4031
Down
No Signal
Down Signal
Uptrend
1.6547 1.6111
Down
No Signal
Down Signal
Uptrend
81.86 79.49
Down
No Signal
Up Signal
Downtrend
Down
No Signal
Up Signal
Downtrend
0.8975 0.8622
Down
No Signal
Up Signal Range Trading
117.84 113.94
Down
No Signal
Down Signal Range Trading
Down
No Signal
Up Signal
Downtrend
Down
No Signal
Down Signal
Downtrend
2850
2711
Down
No Signal
7254
7028
Down
No Signal
3996
3757
Down
No Signal
9680
9306
Down
No Signal
Down Signal
Downtrend
Down
No Signal
1550.98 1517.90
Up
No Signal
Down Signal
Uptrend
420.05 400.68
Down
No Signal
3.0909 2.9107
Down
No Signal
1.7389 1.4513
Down
No Signal
Down Signal
Uptrend
Down
No Signal
Down
No Signal
Down
No Signal
Up Signal
Downtrend
Down
No Signal
Up Signal
Downtrend
Source: Reuters,
19
210-326 8265
marketanalysis@alpha.gr
Panos Remoundos
premoundos@alpha.gr
Maria Koutouzi
mkoutouzi@alpha.gr
Ioannis Kouravelos, CFA
ikouravelos@alpha.gr
Konstantinos Anathreptais
kanathreptakis@alpha.gr

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International Markets Analysis

Important Disclaimer in page 2

Ris k Avers ion

US Risk Sentiment Index

2/22/2008 - 8/24/2011 (GMT)

Cndl, QEUR=, Bid

MACD, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential

2/8/2010 - 7/18/2011 (GMT)

USD/JPY is still in short term range trading mode (1 month horizon).

Support is placed at 79.67 (8/6/11 low) and at 79.55 (5/5/11 low).

3/30/2009 - 8/3/2011 (GMT)

Apr May Jun

Oct Nov Dec

Jan Feb Mar

Oct Nov Dec

Jan Feb Mar

6/5/2009 - 7/28/2011 (GMT)

RSI, QGBP=, Bid(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing

9/15/2008 - 8/11/2011 (GMT)

SMA, QEURGBP=, Bid(Last), 200

MACD, QEURGBP=, Bid(Last), 12, 26, 9, Weighted

6/18/2010 - 7/11/2011 (GMT)

Cndl, QCHF=, Bid

11/3/2008 - 8/9/2011 (GMT)

Cndl, QEURCHF=, Bid

EUR/CHF is in strong downtrend in the short and medium term.

5/19/2008 - 8/18/2011 (NYC)

Cndl, QCLc1, Last Trade

RSI, QCLc1, Last Trade(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing

6/3/2010 - 7/11/2011 (GMT)

9/19/2007 - 8/29/2011 (NYC)

MACD, Q.GSPC, Last Trade(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential

US 10YR Government Bond Yield

12/24/2008 - 8/11/2011 (UTC)

5/19/2009 - 8/3/2011 (UTC)

Cndl, QDE10YT=RR, Yield_1

RSI, QDE10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing

MACD, QDE10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 12, 26, 9, Weighted

US 5yr interest rate swap

2/6/2009 - 8/4/2011 (UTC)

BarOHLC, QUSDSB3L5Y=RR, Bid

Downwards pressure on the US 5 year swap rate seems to persist.

Euro 5yr interest

5/5/2009 - 7/11/2011 (GMT)

-0,2818 -0,7028 -0,3966 -0,5784 -0,5322

50 Days Correlation Matrix (Value)

-0,0939 0,2243 -0,1212 0,2134 -0,2215

Significant negative correlation

50 trading days rolling price correlation.

Risk Aversion Index

Significant positive correlation

EUR/USD remains positively correlated with oil prices.

Technical Analysis Synopsis

Percent Change to Date

Ioannis Kouravelos, CFA

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