The weather and climate

of Malaysia

Ahmad Fairudz Jamaluddin

Malaysian Meteorological Department
Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation

Outline

General Climate of Malaysia

Climate Long Term Mean of Malaysia

Observed Trend of Climate Extremes in Malaysia

How Regional Climate Model can enhance MMDs

services

Seasonal / Monthly Weather Outlook

Drought Monitoring

Fire Danger Rating

Summary

GENERAL CLIMATE OF
MALAYSIA
Tropical maritime climate with:
- uniform temperature
- high humidity
- rainfall throughout the year
The seasons:- Northeast Monsoon (Nov Mar)
- Southwest Monsoon (June August)
- Two Inter-Monsoon (Apr-May & Sept-Oct)

Severe Weather in Malaysia

Northeast Monsoon (Nov Mac)

Flood

Inter-Monsoon (Apr-May &

Sep-Oct)

Flash Flood

Southwest Monsoon (Jun Aug)

Haze

Strong Wind and Rough Sea

Monsoon & Dominant Modes of Climate Variability

SWM (Late May to Sept)

50oN

NEM (Nov to March)

25oN

PACIFC OCEAN

0o

25oS

INDIAN OCEAN
50oS

50oE

100oE

150oE

160oW

110oW

60oW

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ---Interannual oscillation (2-7 years)
Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) intra-seasonal oscillation (20-60 days)

Climate Long Term Mean

in Malaysia

Long Term Mean

Monthly Rainfall Over PM
Northeast Monsoon

NOVEMBER

DECEMBER

JANUARY

Southwest Monsoon

> 500

JUNE

JULY

AUGUST

Mean Monthly Average Temperature Over PM

Northeast
Monsoon

Southwest
Monsoon

Mean Monthly Average RH Over PM

Northeast
Monsoon

NOVEMBER

DECEMBER

JANUARY

Southwest
Monsoon

JULY

AUGUST

SEPTEMBER

Long Term Mean

Monthly Rainfall Over EM
Northeast Monsoon

DECEMBER

JANUARY

FEBRUARY

Southwest Monsoon

JUNE

JULY

AUGUST

0 50
50 100
100 150
150 200
200 250
250 300
300 400
400 500
> 500

Mean Monthly Average Temperature

Over EM
Northeast Monsoon

Southwest Monsoon

Observed Trends of Climate

Extremes in Malaysia

CONVECTIVE TIME SCALE

Trends in 2 hour maximum rainfall

Frequency of Heavy Rainfall (blue) (>20mm) &

Intensity (red) for 2 Hour Maximum Rainfall.
Number in box indicates trends in PRCPTOT.

(Diong et al.; MMD)

SEASONAL TIME SCALE

Trends in heavy rainfall

Frequency of Heavy Rainfall (blue) (>20mm)

& Intensity (red) during Southwest Monsoon (JJA).
Number in box indicates trends in PRCPTOT.

(Diong et al.; MMD)

SEASONAL TIME SCALE

Trends in heavy rainfall

Frequency of Heavy Rainfall (blue) (>20mm)

& Intensity (red) during Northeast Monsoon (DJF).
Number in box indicates trends in PRCPTOT.

(Diong et al.; MMD)

ANNUAL TIME SCALE

Trends in heavy rainfall

Frequency of Heavy Rainfall (blue) (>20mm)

& Intensity (red) for annual rainfall. Number
in box indicates trends in PRCPTOT.

(Diong et al.; MMD)

 In general the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events

are on the rise.
The SW monsoon season is becoming wetter but at the same
time prolonged dry spells are more frequent.
During the NE monsoon season the extreme rainfall events
associated with the monsoon surges and other synoptic features
are on the rise.
Notable increasing trend in the annual precipitation is observed
in EM with both the monsoon seasons possibly contributing to
this trend.

How Regional Climate Model

can enhance MMDs services

Seasonal / Monthly
Weather Outlook

Climate Variability
Moisture flux during JJA (1979-2000)

Moisture convergence (mm/day)

Tangang et. al. (2007)

Indian Ocean as source of moisture

for PM during JJA. South China Sea /
Pacific Ocean as source of moisture
for Malaysian region during DJF

Indian Ocean experience warming SST relatively faster than

other oceans including Pacific Ocean

How this SST warming over Indian and Pacific

Ocean modulate/change rainfall distribution and
extreme weather event over the Malaysian
region?

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

Composite Anomalous OLR, Mode -ve IOD
years, Mode +ve IOD years during JJA

During Mode ve IOD, Malaysian region

experience neutral condition compare to
wetter condition over the South of Sumatra
during JJA
During Mode +ve IOD, Malaysian region
experience dry condition over the south of PM
and Sarawak during JJA. However, south of
Sumatra and Borneo experience driest
condition during the period.

Anomalous OLR (W/m2)

El-Nino Southern Oscillation Index (ENSO)

Composite Anomalous OLR &

La-Nina years during JJA

Anomalous OLR (W/m2)

Composite Anomalous OLR &

El-Nino years during JJA

Anomalous OLR (W/m2)

Wet condition over south of PM and Sarawak during La-Nina. Dry condition
over south of PM, Sarawak and south of Sabah during El-Nino (JJA)

Conventional ENSO vs ENSO-Modoki

Composites of Anomalous DJF Precipitation
Conventional El Nino

El Nino Modoki

(Ester Salimun, UKM)

Composites of Anomalous DJF Precipitation,

Anomalous wind at 850hPa

Composites of MJO Phases, Anomalous Precipitation &

wind at 925hPa during JJA

(Fairudz et. al., MMD)

Diurnal Rainfall and MJO during JJA

Phase 1 + 2

Phase 3 + 4

Phase 5 + 6

Phase 7 + 8

Afternoon
(15 20 MST)

Evening
(21 02 MST)

Composites of MJO Phases, standardized anomalous precipitation during

afternoon and evening over PM
(Fairudz et. al., MMD)

LOCAL ATMOSPERIC CIRCULATION

Phase 1 + 2
Afternoon (15 20 MST)
H

CIN (J/kg) at 20 MST

Stesen

Phase
1+2

Phase
3+4

Phase
5+6

Bayan
Lepas

75.12

91.56

86.12

KLIA

75.83

59.51

106.5

CAPE (J/kg) at 20 MST

Stesen

Kuantan

Phase
1+2

Phase
3+4

Phase
5+6

1972.3

2784.1

2523.6

Relatively low CIN over the

west cost of PM during phase
1+2 MJO. Relatively high CAPE
over east coast of PM during
phase 3+4 MJO.

Left panel: Composite of MJOs phase, anomalous mslp (contour), anomalous RH (value) and
direction of surface wind (vector). Right panel: Composite of MJOs phase, anomalous
surface divergence, anomalous surface temperature.

Composites of MJO Phases, Anomalous Precipitation &

wind at 925hPa during DJF

STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING
Statistical downscaling from JMA CGCM
(three month lead time and 51 members)
Method of double leave one-out crossvalidation with multiple size of optimal
window is used to validate the model at
each meteorological station. The highest
correlation coefficient with station's
precipitation was selected as predictor.

SON 2011

Probabilistic forecast
for SON 2011

(Yip et. al., MMD)

GCMS SEASONAL PRODUCTS

NDJ

NDJ

ECMWF

JAMSTEC

Rainfall Outlook for November 2012

Meteorology Drought Monitoring

Meteorology Drought Event in Malaysia

based on SPI Index
Category

Number of
Events

Percentage

Drought Event

14

46.6%

No Drought
Event

16

53.3%

Event

Number of
Events

Percentage

El-Nino

10

71.4%

La-Nina

14.2%

Others

14.2%

Year
Latest 3-month SPI Index less than -1.0

(Fatin Nurashikin, UKM)

Meteorology Drought Monitoring

& Latest 3-month SPI less than -1.5

LEVEL

CONDITIONS

WARNING

Latest 3-month and 6-monthly cumulative rainfall amount exceed 35% deficit
from normal with latest 3-month SPI Indexs less than - 1.5 and the previous
drought level was catogorized as ALERT.

DANGER

Latest 3-month and 6-monthly cumulative rainfall amount exceed 35% deficit
from normal with latest 3-month SPI Indexs less than 2.0 and the previous
drought level was catogorized as WARNING.

Fire Danger Rating

National & ASEAN Country
(currently 3 days forecast (WRF) with
4km resolution for Malaysia &
36km for SEA region

Situation of sudden mortality of peatswamp

trees (too much water over the area
La-Nina 2011)

Normal peatswamp (Neutral ENSO - August

2012)

North Selangor PSF

Sungai Karang FR

Raja Musa FR

Selangor

Pandangan daripada kompartmen 89 kiri terusan

Forest fires at RMFR

August 2012 ( 407 ha)

Pandangan daripada kompartmen 89

Forest fires at RMFR 2012 ( 407 ha)

6 ha

60 ha

341 ha

FFMC code during 18 29 August 2012

18

19

20

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

21

DMC code during 18 29 August 2012

18

19

20

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

21

Fire spreading underground (Paya Indah Wetland)

Fire spreading underground (Paya Indah Wetland)

ISI code during 1 10 June 2012

ISI : 1 10 Jun 2012

ISI extreme on 4 June 2012, same day burning start

(rain on 9 June 2012)

10

ISI code during 21 30 June 2012

21

22

ISI : 21 30 June 2012

26

27

23

24

25

ISI extreme throughout the burning period except on

a few days due to rain (drastic change)

28

29

30

Summary

In general, the intensity and frequency of extreme

rainfall events are on rise

Climate variability over the Malaysian region is strongly

influence by monsoon, ENSO, IOD and MJO

Malaysian forestry and water resources are too sensitive

to any changes/shifting of the climate

Reliable RCMs are crucial and important to enhance

MMDs services such as accurate seasonal/monthly
weather outlook, drought monitoring and fire danger
rating

Agriculture; Agro-Climatological
Zonation

State Areas Actual

(ha)
Planted (A) % Planted Suitable (S) % Suitable

States
Johor

1,891,510

Oil Palm Cultivation Areas for Johore

Annual Average
Rainfall

2000-3000mm

829,036

41,761

2.2

22,578

Suitability Areas (Marginal) for Oil Palm

Cultivation in Johore

Annual Average
Temperatures

24C to 28

43.8

Suitable not
being
Planted

Soil Suitability Sub-Classes

Oil Palm Planted on Suitability (Marginal) land

in Johor

Classification by Terrain
Limits: (Class 3 or less)
where;

Suitable : 1n, 2d and 2dt

Class 1
Marginal: 2DGn, 2Gn, 2Dt(G), 2Gnt, 2cGnt, 2cd,
2cdGnt, 2dnT, 2dnt, 2nT, 2nT(G), 3D(nt), 3G, 3G(cn), Class 2
3G(cnT), 3G(n),3G(nt), 3G(t), 3R(n), 3d, 3d(n), 3d(t), Class 3
3dt, 3t(G), 4dt, 4dt(n)

0-2
>2-6
>6-12

Composites of MJO Phases, Anomalous OLR, Anomalous

Geopotential Height at 500hPa & wind at 850hPa during JJA