Arctic Shipping: An Analysis of the

2013 Northern Sea Route Season

The Arctic Institute | Center for Circumpolar Security Studies

Europe

16%

Atlantic
Ocean

3%

5%

2%

3%

Ind
Oc

Europe

16%

7%

Atlantic
Ocean

5%

2%

9% 10%
3%

7%
2%

3%

Pacific
Ocean

150.1-200
100.1-150
50.1-100
25.1-50

Asia

57%

2%

Chinas imports in
bn USD, 2012
Percentage

3%

Indian
Ocean

2%

5%

12% share of
imports

Source: International Trade

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Europe

16%

7%

Atlantic
Ocean

5%

2%

9% 10%
3%

7%
2%

3%

Pacific
Ocean

150.1-200
100.1-150
50.1-100
25.1-50

Asia

57%

2%

Chinas imports in
bn USD, 2012
Percentage

3%

Indian
Ocean

2%

5%

12% share of
imports

Source: International Trade

Arctic Shipping:

An Analysis of the 2013

Northern Sea Route Season
Malte Humpert

Cover photo: Trude Pettersen (with permission)

Back cover photo: Peter Novacco/photo.polymu.com (with permission)

The Arctic Institute

October 2014

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of The Arctic Institute or
as expressly permitted by law.

Executive Summary
The 2013 shipping season on the Northern Sea Route (NSR) commenced on June 28 when the Russian-flagged
vessel Varzuga, carrying 13,658 tons of diesel, entered the NSR at Cape Zhelaniya north of Novaya Zemlya. Over
the course of 154 days a total of 49 vessels transported 1.35 million tons of cargo. A further 22 vessels transited
the NSR unladen carrying 507,000 tons of ballast. The shipping season concluded on November 28 when the
Russian-flagged vessel Bukhta Slavyanka exited the NSR at Cape Dezhnev in the Bering Strait.
The Northern Sea Route Information Office lists 71 transits for 2013 but a closer analysis of the data shows that
only 41 vessels traveled the entire length of the NSR and qualify as full transits. An additional 23 vessels either
departed from or arrived at ports inside the NSR and did not fully transit it. A further seven vessels traveled
exclusively within the NSR. Of the 41 ships that transited the full length only 30 carried cargo, transporting 1.19
million tons.
Oil products, including diesel, fuel oil, and naphtha, made up the lions share of cargo on the NSR in 2013. In
total 31 vessels carried 911,000 tons of oil products representing 67 percent of all cargo. Iron ore accounted for
203,000 tons representing 15 percent of all cargo in 2013. General Cargo, also called break bulk cargo, accounted
for 7.4 percent of goods on the NSR. Coal deliveries represented 5.5 percent of traffic. LNG accounted for
5 percent of all NSR traffic in 2013 and a single vessel, the Arctic Aurora, carried 66,868 tons of LNG from
Hammerfest to Chiba.
The 2013 season saw two distinct peaks in shipping activity. In eastward direction, supplies for local communities,
mainly oil products, and two iron ore shipments dominated the first two months of the season, July and August.
Unfavorable ice conditions near Severnaya Zemlya and in the East Siberian Sea during the first half of September
led to a drop in traffic before a second peak emerged at the end of the month. Westbound traffic commenced
around July 15, about two weeks after eastbound transits. The first peak in shipping activity occurred between
July 15 and August 15. Almost all volume carried during this time consisted of ballast. The second increase in
shipping in late September and October included primarily oil products, general cargo and coal.
The vast majority of transits, 54 of 71 journeys, originated in Russian ports and those vessels transported 705,000
tons, equal to 52 percent of all cargo. The lack of diversification, especially in terms of country of origin, is
striking. The NSR is primarily utilized as a domestic supply and export route for Russia and much less as an
international transportation corridor by countries in Europe or Asia. Key hubs for this regional shuttle service
are Murmansk and Arkhangelsk in the west, Ob Bay in the center, and Pevek in the east. Out of 71 total transits,
43 were exclusively between Russian ports
Traffic patterns on the NSR differ significantly between east- and westbound transits. In 2013, 40 vessels traveled
eastbound carrying 895,000 tons in cargo and 6,000 tons of ballast. In contrast, the 31 westbound vessels carried
460,000 tons of cargo and 500,000 tons of ballast. The NSR exhibits a strong bias for eastbound journeys.
Products, primarily natural resources, are shipped to the markets in Asia, with limited cargo shipped in the
opposite direction. This imbalance in the flow of goods leads to a higher share of ships traveling the route empty
and thus reduces profitability. In contrast to the Suez and Panama Canals, the NSR largely represents a one-way
traffic route. After delivering cargo at ports in Europe or Asia few ships make the return voyage either with or
without cargo via the NSR.
The NSR remains a niche trade route with limited numbers of true transits. The export of Arctic hydrocarbon
resources, primarily from Russia, and their transport along the NSR can be expected to grow over the coming
years. However, this will not establish the NSR as a true trade route but in contrast place even greater emphasis
on one-directional traffic from west to east. And Mr. Putins hope to establish the route as a northern export
highway may yet be dashed by unfavorable market conditions, varying ice levels and the lack of available Russian
icebreakers.

Europe

16%

7%

Atlantic
Ocean

5%

2%

9% 10%
3%

7%
2%

3%

Pacific
Ocean

150.1-200
100.1-150
50.1-100
25.1-50

Asia

57%

2%

Chinas imports in
bn USD, 2012
Percentage

12% share of
imports

Source: International Trade

3%

Indian
Ocean

2%

5%

Introduction

Not All Transits are Equal

The 2013 shipping season on the Northern Sea

Route (NSR) commenced on June 28 when the
Russian-flagged vessel Varzuga, carrying 13,658 tons
of diesel, entered the NSR at Cape Zhelaniya north
of Novaya Zemlya.1 Over the course of 154 days a
total of 49 vessels transported 1.35 million tons of
cargo. A further 22 vessels transited the NSR unladen
carrying 507,000 tons of ballast. The shipping season
concluded on November 28 when the Russianflagged vessel Bukhta Slavyanka exited the NSR at
Cape Dezhnev in the Bering Strait.

Russian law defines the NSR as the sea route between

Kara Gate and Cape Zhelaniya at the tips of Novaya
Zemlya in the west and Cape Dezhnev in the Bering
Strait in the east. According to this definition
Yugorski Shar in the west and Cape Shmidt in the
east represent the entrance and exit ports to the NSR.
The Northern Sea Route Information Office lists
71 transits for 2013 but a closer analysis of the data
shows that only 41 vessels traveled the entire length
of the NSR and qualify as full transits. An additional
23 vessels either departed from or arrived at ports
inside the NSR and did not fully transit it. A further
seven vessels traveled exclusively within the NSR.
Of the 41 ships that transited the full length only 30
carried cargo, transporting 1.19 million tons.

Traffic on the NSR connected ports as far west

as Ammassalik (Greenland) and as far east as
Vancouver (Canada). In total, vessels traveling along
the NSR called at 47 ports in 14 countries. The port
of Murmansk (Russia) represented the key hub
for shipping on the NSR with 24 vessels, carrying
492,000 tons of cargo, either departing or arriving
here. The port of Pevek (Russia) located near the
eastern entrance of the NSR, counted 18 vessels with
a total of 311,000 tons of cargo.
2%

9% 10%

7%

Asia

57%

2%

3%
2%
2%

Indian
Ocean

5%

Europe

16%

7%

Atlantic
Ocean

5%

2%

9% 10%
3%

7%
2%

3%

Pacific
Ocean

150.1-200
100.1-150
50.1-100
25.1-50

Asia

57%

2%

Chinas imports in
bn USD, 2012
Percentage

12% share of
imports

Source: International Trade

3%

Indian
Ocean

2%

5%

3%

9% 10%
3%

7%

Indian
Ocean

Asia

57%

2%

5%

Other important ports were Rotterdam (Netherlands),

Mongstad and Hammerfest (Norway) in Europe
accounting for six ships and 408,000 tons. In Asia,
the ports of Yosu and Ulsan (South Korea) and Chiba
(Japan) totalled six ships and 421,000 tons. About
286,000 tons of cargo, representing 21 percent of
traffic departed from or arrived in Chinese ports.

Oil Products
Oil products, including diesel, fuel oil, and naphtha,
made up the lions share of cargo on the NSR in

Map 1: NSR Transits 2013

Pori

NSR Transits, 2013, Cargo + Ballast

800,000t
400,000t
200,000t
50,000t
Source: NSR Infor mation Office

NSR vs. Suez Canal

1.4m tons 915m tons

Melarra Tan Cang

Cai Mep Khatanga Bay
Anabar Bay

2%

2%

imports

Ob Bay

5%

3%

Percentage

12% share of

Yugorski Shar

Atlantic
Ocean

2%

50.1-100
25.1-50

Rotterdam
Amsterdam
Mongstad
Alesund Skagen
Lindoe
Szczecin
Hammerfest
Krikenes
Ust-Luga
Saint-Petersburg
Murmansk
Arkhangelsk

16%

150.1-200
100.1-150

Ammassalik

Europe

7%

Pacific
Ocean
Chinas imports in
bn USD, 2012

Source: International Trade

J HL

MN O

K
A
I EC B
F D
G

Malte Humpert/The Arctic Institute

A Chiba
B Mizushima
C Ulsan
D Busan
E Yosu

F Beilun
G Mailiao
H Qingdao
I Lanshan
J Xingang

Vancouver

3%

Nome

5%

3%

imports

Dutch
Harbor

16%

Atlantic
Ocean

Percentage

12% share of

50.1-100
25.1-50

Source: International Trade

Nevelsk
Korsakov
Magadan
Sea of Okhotsk
Petropavlosk
Kolyma River
Pevek
Cape
Shmidt
Provideniya

Europe

7%

Pacific
Ocean
Chinas imports in
bn USD, 2012
150.1-200
100.1-150

The first full transit of 2013 began on July 3, when

the Nordic Orion entered the NSR at Cape Zhelaniy
traveling from Murmansk to Lanshan (China) with
66,000 tons of iron ore. The transit shipping season
concluded on October 28, when the Nordic Odyssey,
carrying 73,500 tons of coal from Vancouver
(Canada) to Pori (Finland), left the NSR via Cape
Zhelaniya.

K Daesan
L Rajin
M Slavyanka
N Vladivostok
O Nakhodka

* includes: diesel, gas

condensate, fuel oil,
naphtha, gas oil

Source: NSR Infor mation Office

2013. In total 31 vessels carried 911,000 tons of oil

products representing 67 percent of all cargo. The
flow of oil products was predominantly eastbound
with 23 vessels carrying 589,000 tons traveling from
Europe to Asia and 8 vessels transporting 323,000
tons moving westbound from Asia to Europe. Key
ports for oil products were Rotterdam, Mongstad and
Murmansk in Europe and Yosu and Busan in Asia.
Out of 31 vessels delivering oil products, 11 vessels
supplied local communities and ports along the
NSR. Only 17 vessels transited the full NSR and
transported oil products from Europe to Asia or
vice versa. The prevalence of vessels supplying local
communities helps to explain the small vessel size.
On average ships carried less than 30,000 tons of oil
products. Only eight ships carried more than 50,000
tons, the largest one being the Propontis transporting
109,000 tons of gas oil from Ulsan (South Korea)
to Skagen (Denmark). Vessels carrying oil products

Provideniya

Petropavlosk-Kamchatsky Kolyma River

Pevek

Melarra

NSR Transits, 2013, Oil

Products*
400,000t
200,000t
50,000t

Mailiao
Yosu
Daesan
Busan
Slavyanka
Mizushima Nakhodka
Chiba Nevelsk
Magadan

Khatanga
Anabar Bay

Ob Bay

Yugorski Shar

Ust-Luga
Murmansk
Arkhangelsk

Rotterdam
Skagen

Mongstad

Map 2: NSR Transits 2013, Oil Products

Malte
Humpert/The
Malte
Humpert/TheArctic
ArcticInstitute
Institute

spent an average of 14.7 days on the NSR.

Iron Ore
Europe

16%

7%

50.1-100
25.1-50

Iron ore accounted for 203,000 tons representing

15 percent of all cargo in 2013. Three vessels, the
NS Yakutia, the Nordic Orion and the Nordic Odyssey
departed from the port of Murmansk delivering
between 66,000 and 70,000 tons of iron ore each
to the ports of Lanshan and Qingdao (China). The
Nordic Orion departed Murmansk on July 1 and had
to contend with medium to heavy ice conditions
reducing its average speed along the NSR to only 5.4
knots. It took almost 20 days for the Orion to transit
the NSR. The Nordic Odyssey and the NS Yakutia left
port on August 11 and September 21 respectively
and were able to take advantage of improved ice
conditions. They traversed the NSR in 10.8 and 12.9
days respectively.

Lanshan
Qingdao

Murmansk
NSR Transits, 2013,
Iron Ore
200,000t

5%

2%

9% 10%
3%

7%
2%

150.1-200
100.1-150

Map 3: NSR Transits 2013, Iron Ore

Source: NSR Infor mation Office

Atlantic
Ocean

3%

Pacific
Ocean

Malte Humpert/The Arctic Institute

Asia

57%

2%

Chinas imports in
bn USD, 2012
Percentage

12% share of
imports

Source: International Trade

3%

Indian
Ocean

2%

5%

NSR Transits, 2013,

General Cargo

PetropavloskKamchatsky
Pevek
Cape
Shmidt

Rajin
Vladivostok

Tan Cang Cai Mep

Anabar Bay
Xingang

Ust-Luga
Saint-Petersburg
Arkhangelsk

Rotterdam
Amsterdam
Szczecin

Map 4: NSR Transits 2013, General Cargo

Busan

66,000t
Source: NSR Infor mation Office

Atlantic
Ocean

5%

2%

9% 10%
3%

7%
2%

50.1-100
25.1-50

3%

Asia

57%

2%

Percentage

12% share of
imports

3%

Indian
Ocean

2%

5%

Coal

General Cargo, also called break bulk cargo, accounted

for 7.4 percent of goods on the NSR. General cargo
is carried in bags, boxes, crates or barrels rather than
in inter-modal containers. Thirteen vessels, including
the much-publicized Yong Sheng owned by COSCO
Shipping, transported 100,000 tons of these goods.
Two ships, the Nordic Bothnia and the Yong Sheng,
accounted for more than half of all general cargo.
The Bothnia departed Xingang (China) on September
22 bound for Amsterdam (Netherlands). It spent 14.8
days on the NSR traveling at 10 knots. The Yong Sheng
departed Busan on August 17 bound for Rotterdam.
It recorded the highest average speed of all vessels
in 2013, traveling at 14.1 knots and spending just
7.4 days on the NSR. The remaining 11 general
cargo vessels, carrying between 120 and 9000 tons,
predominately supplied local communities along the
Russian coastline. Seven vessels departed from the
port of Arkhangelsk bound for either Anabar Bay,
Kolymar River and Pevek within the NSR.

Coal deliveries accounted for 5.5 percent of traffic.

A single vessel, the Nordic Odyssey, carried 73,500
tons from Vancouver (Canada) to Pori (Finland).
The vessel departed Vancouver late in the shipping
season on October 4 and did not enter the NSR until
October 16. It recorded an average speed of 9.1
knots and sailed for 12.2 days along the NSR. The
Odysseys journey represented the last major vessel
to transit the NSR in 2013. All subsequent vessels
constituted either local deliveries of oil products or
traveled under ballast. Thus, as a transit route, the
NSR shipping season concluded a full month before
the last smaller vessels left the route.
Liquefied Natural Gas
LNG accounted for 5 percent of all NSR traffic
in 2013. The NSR saw the first transit of a LNG
carrier in 2012 when the Ob River carried LNG from
Yosu to Montoir (France). In 2013 a single vessel,
the Arctic Aurora, carried 66,868 tons of LNG from
Hammerfest to Chiba. Despite the fact that the vessel

Map 5: NSR Transits 2013, Coal

Vancouver

16%

150.1-200
100.1-150

General Cargo

Pori

Europe

7%

Pacific
Ocean
Chinas imports in
bn USD, 2012

Source: International Trade

Malte Humpert/The Arctic Institute

NSR Transits, 2013, Coal

73,500t
Source: NSR Infor mation Office

Malte
Humpert/The
Malte
Humpert/TheArctic
ArcticInstitute
Institute

Map 6: NSR Transits 2013, LNG

Chiba

Hammerfest

NSR Transits, 2013, LNG

66,000t
Source: NSR Infor mation Office

Malte Humpert/The Arctic Institute

Europe

16%

7%

Atlantic
Ocean

5%

2%

9% 10%
3%

7%
2%

3%

Pacific
Ocean

150.1-200
100.1-150
50.1-100
25.1-50

NSR Transits, 2013, Ballast

225,000t
75,000t
Source: NSR Infor mation Office

Ob Bay

Hammerfest
Krikenes
Murmansk
Arkhangelsk

Lindoe

Ammassalik

Alesund

Map 7: NSR Transits 2013, Ballast

Nome

In contrast to the Suez and Panama Canals, the

NSR largely represents a one-way traffic route. After
delivering cargo at ports in Europe or Asia few ships
make the return voyage either with or without cargo

Oil products made up 65 percent of eastbound

volume (cargo + ballast), followed by LNG with 23
percent and iron ore at 7 percent. Only three of 40
vessels transited the NSR under ballast in the easterly
direction accounting for 0.1 percent of total volume.
In contrast, ballast accounted for 52 percent of the
westbound volume followed by oil products with

Dutch Harbor

Differing Traffic Patterns

Traffic patterns on the NSR differ significantly

between east- and westbound transits. In 2013, 40
vessels traveled eastbound carrying 895,000 tons in
cargo and 6,000 tons of ballast. In contrast, the 31
westbound vessels carried 460,000 tons of cargo and
500,000 tons of ballast.

Pevek
Cape Shmidt
Provideniya

In addition to the 49 vessels carrying cargo, 22

ships traveled the NSR unladen and under ballast.2
Ballasted journeys accounted for 31 percent of the
official 71 transits. The vast majority of ballast traffic,
19 out of 22 journeys, traveled the NSR in westward
direction and 12 trips arrived in and departed from
ports between Murmansk and Pevek.

Petropavlosk Kamchatsky

Ballast

via the NSR. The Propontis was the only large vessel
traveling the NSR with cargo in both directions
transporting 79,000 tons of naphtha products from
Mongstad to Mizushima (Japan) in early August
and carrying 109,000 tons of gas oil from Ulsan to
Skagen. Two other large vessels, the Nordic Odyssey
and the Arctic Aurora returned along the NSR under
ballast.

Beilun
Busan
Vladivostok
Nevelsk
Korsakov
Sea of Okhotsk

transited the NSR during the month of September,

when ice is generally at its lowest extent, it only
traveled at an average speed of 7.1 knots and spent
more than two weeks on the NSR. The ship departed
Hammerfest on September 13 and exited the NSR
via Cape Dezhnev on October 6.

Malte
Humpert/The
Malte
Humpert/TheArctic
ArcticInstitute
Institute

Asia

57%

2%

Chinas imports in
bn USD, 2012
Percentage

12% share of
imports

Source: International Trade

3%

Indian
Ocean

2%

5%

Figure 1: Share of Volume, Eastbound

7%

Figure 2: Share of Volume, Westbound

1% 0.1%
4%

6%
8%

23%
65%

Oil Products
LNG
Iron Ore
General Cargo
Coast Guard
Ballast

34%

Oil Products
General Cargo
Coal
Ballast

52%

Europe

16%

7%

Atlantic
Ocean

5%

2%

9% 10%
3%

7%
2%

3%

Pacific
Ocean

Percentage

3%

Indian
Ocean

Asia

2%

5%

12% share of
imports

31 percent and general cargo at 8 percent. Almost

half, 14 of 31 westbound vessels, traveled the NSR
without cargo.
Intraseasonal and Interannual Ice Variations
The 2013 season saw two distinct peaks in shipping
activity. In eastward direction, supplies for local
communities, mainly oil products, and two iron ore
shipments dominated the first two months of the
season, July and August. Unfavorable ice conditions
near Severnaya Zemlya and in the East Siberian Sea
during the first half of September led to a drop in
traffic before a second peak emerged at the end of
the month. (Suslin, 2013) September saw another
iron ore delivery and the seasons sole LNG shipment.
Eastbound traffic largely concluded by the end of
October with a few small deliveries of oil products
along the Russian coastline.

this time consisted of ballast. The second increase

in shipping in late September and October included
primarily oil products, general cargo and coal. The
westbound shipping season extended until the end of
November, however, traffic consisted exclusively of
unladen vessels after October 25.
The fact that Arctic shipping is subject to the
intraseasonal variability of ice conditions represents
a key economic obstacle of the NSR. Unfavorable ice
conditions between the end of August and the middle
of September had a noticeable impact on shipping
activity in 2013. Furthermore, interannual variations
of ice conditions will also remain significant. While
51 vessels had transited the NSR by October 1 in
2013, no transits had been recorded by the same date
in 2014 according to the NSR Information Office.
Limited Geographic and Cargo Diversification

Westbound traffic commenced around July 15,

about two weeks after eastbound transits. The first
peak in shipping activity occurred between July 15
and August 15. Almost all volume carried during

The vast majority of transits, 54 of 71 journeys,

originated in Russian ports and those vessels
transported 705,000 tons, equal to 52 percent of all
cargo. South Korean ports represented the second

Figure 3: Volume by Date, Eastbound

Figure 4: Volume by Date, Westbound

000 tons
300

000 tons
300

250
200

Oil Products
LNG
Iron Ore
General Cargo
Coast Guard
Ballast

250

Oil Products
General Cargo
Coal
Ballast

200

150

150

100

100

50

50

28-Jun
5-Jul
12-Jul
19-Jul
26-Jul
2-Aug
9-Aug
16-Aug
23-Aug
30-Aug
6-Sep
13-Sep
20-Sep
27-Sep
4-Oct
11-Oct
18-Oct
25-Oct
1-Nov
8-Nov
15-Nov
22-Nov

50.1-100
25.1-50

28-Jun
5-Jul
12-Jul
19-Jul
26-Jul
2-Aug
9-Aug
16-Aug
23-Aug
30-Aug
6-Sep
13-Sep
20-Sep
27-Sep
4-Oct
11-Oct
18-Oct
25-Oct
1-Nov
8-Nov
15-Nov
22-Nov

150.1-200
100.1-150

57%

2%

Chinas imports in
bn USD, 2012

Source: International Trade

Figure 5: Cargo by Origin Country

Figure 6: Cargo by Destination Country

Russia

Russia

Netherlands

South Korea

China

Japan

Other

1000 1200
thousand tons

transits, 43 were exclusively between Russian ports

and more than 300,000 tons of cargo, equal to 23
percent of the total, were transported domestically
between Russian ports and never left the countrys
Exclusive Economic Zone. Furthermore, almost
500,000 tons of cargo departed from or arrived in
the port of Murmansk alone.
The graphs below show the importance of the NSR
as a local supply route for Russian communities. Small
vessels, carrying generally less than 20,000 tons of
cargo, travel along its northern coastline throughout
the season delivering diesel and general cargo. Notice
the sharp increase in volume at the port of Murmansk
and significant descrease at Pevek.
Trade Routes vs. Transport Routes
One key characteristic of major trade routes is the
roughly equal flow of goods in both directions. The
demand of products at either end and along the trade
route allows vessels to carry cargo in each direction

Figure 8: Vessel Size by Destination Country

Russia
China
Netherlands
Japan
South Korea
Norway
Denmark
Finland
Taiwan
Malaysia
Greenland
United States
North Korea
Poland

tons
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0

9-Dec

Ust-Luga
Szczecin
Amsterdam
Skagen
Mongstad
Hammerfest
Murmansk
Yugorski Shar
Khatanga Bay
Kolyma River Mouth
Cape Shmidt
Provideniya
Petropavlovsk
Okhotsk Sea
Korsakov
Nakhodka
Slavyanka
Chiba/Futtsu
Ulsan
Busan
Daesan
Quingdao
Beilun
Tan Cang Cai Mep

Oil Products
LNG
Iron Ore
General Cargo
Coast Guard
Coal
Ballast

500 600 700

thousand tons

19-Nov

Figure 7: Volume on the NSR by Port

400

30-Oct

The lack of diversification, especially in terms of

country of origin, is striking. The fact is that the NSR
is primarily utilized as a domestic supply and export
route for Russia and much less as an international
transportation corridor by countries in Europe or
Asia. Key hubs for this regional shuttle service are
Murmansk and Arkhangelsk in the west, Ob Bay
in the center, and Pevek in the east. Out of 71 total

300

10-Oct

The list of destination ports was slightly more

diversified. Russian ports were the destination for 48
of the 71 journeys delivering 227,000 tons of cargo.
Dutch ports received four vessels carrying a total of
242,000 tons. Ports in China, Japan and South Korea
each received three vessels carrying 203,000, 183,000
and 182,000 tons respectively. Together these five
countries accounted for 77 percent of all cargo.

200

20-Sep

largest points of departure with four vessels carrying

293,000 tons followed by Norwegian ports with six
vessels transporting 208,000 tons. Ports in these three
countries accounted for 89 percent of all cargo.

100

31-Aug

800

11-Aug

600

22-Jul

400

2-Jul

200

12-Jun

10

Cargo only
Cargo and ballast

South Korea

Other

000 tons
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0

China

Cargo only
Cargo and ballast

Norway

Europe

16%

7%

Atlantic
Ocean

5%

2%

9% 10%
3%

7%
2%

3%

Pacific
Ocean

150.1-200
100.1-150
50.1-100
25.1-50

Asia

57%

2%

Chinas imports in
bn USD, 2012
Percentage

12% share of
imports

Source: International Trade

3%

Indian
Ocean

2%

5%

Figure 9: Cargo Comparison NSR

Figure 10: Cargo Comparison Suez Canal

Other

Other

General Cargo

General Cargo
LNG

Westbound
Eastbound

LNG

South to North
North to South

Dry Bulk

Dry Bulk
Oil Products

Oil Products

Container

Europe

16%

7%

Atlantic
Ocean

5%

2%

9% 10%
3%

7%
2%

3%

Pacific
Ocean

150.1-200
100.1-150
50.1-100
25.1-50

Asia

57%

2%

Chinas imports in
bn USD, 2012
Percentage

12% share of
imports

Source: International Trade

3%

Indian
Ocean

2%

5%

100

200

300

400 500 600

thousand tons

thus avoiding ballasted journeys, which in turn

increases profitability. In the case of the Suez Canal
Route, the shipping lane the NSR aims to compete
with, the amount of cargo shipped south to north
and vice versa is almost identical. In particular the
flow of containerized cargo through the canal in
either direction is nearly identical. In contrast, the
NSR exhibits a strong bias for eastbound journeys.
Products, primarily natural resources, are shipped to
the markets in Asia, with limited cargo shipped in
the opposite direction. This imbalance in the flow of
goods leads to a higher share of ships traveling the
route empty and thus reduces profitability.
The Suez and Panama Canals both count limited
numbers of ships traveling under ballast, eight
percent and one percent of all transits respectively.2
The NSR, on the other hand, exhibited a ballast rate
of 32 percent between 2011-2013.2 A high share
of ballasted journeys is the hallmark of transport
routes in contrast to trade routes. While the shipping
lanes passing through the Suez and Panama Canals

Figure 11: Cargo vs. Ballast, 2011-13

Panama Canal

Ballast

NSR

0%

20%

40%

60%

50

100

150

200

250 300
million tons

are mature trade routes exhibiting low ballast rates,

the NSR is and will likely remain largely a one-way
transport and export route.
Conclusion
The NSR remains a niche trade route with limited
numbers of true transits. Only 30 vessels traversed
the route with cargo in 2013 while 41 ships either
traveled without cargo or stayed within Russian
waters. The majority of traffic originates in Russian
waters and a significant share of cargo is destined for
local communities along the NSR. Ice conditions will
continue to have a significant impact on shipping
traffic and the high interannual variability of ice
coverage makes the route unsuitable for containerized
cargo.
East- and westbound traffic patterns are distinct,
indicating that the NSR does not function as a mature
trade route but primarily as a transport and export
route. This predominantly one-way traffic causes
the share of unladen vessels to remain high, thus
reducing profitability. Large vessels are far and few
between and the majority of vessels carry less than
20,000 tons in cargo.
The export of Arctic hydrocarbon resources,
primarily from Russia, and their transport along
the NSR can be expected to grow over the coming
years. However, this will not establish the NSR as a
true trade route but in contrast place even greater
emphasis on one-directional traffic from west to east.
Mr. Putins hope to establish the route as a northern
export highway may yet be dashed by unfavorable
market conditions, varying ice levels and the lack of
available Russian icebreakers.

Suez Canal
Cargo

80%

100%

11

Notes
1
2

All figures based on data by the NSR Information Office unless otherwise noted.
Includes subcategory of repositioning.

References
Northern Searoute Information Office. (2014). NSR Transits 2013. Retrieved from http://www.arctic-lio.com/
docs/nsr/transits/Transits_2013_final.pdf
Panama Canal Authority. (2014) Transit Statistics. Retrieved from http://www.pancanal.com/eng/op/transit-stats/
Suez Canal Authority. (2014). Transit Statistics. Retrieved from http://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/TRstat.aspx?reportId=1
Suslin, M. (2013). Arctic Shipping Development. Shipowners point of view. Retrieved from http://russiancouncil.ru/en/
arctic2013/presentations/

Europe

16%

7%

Atlantic
Ocean

5%

2%

9% 10%
3%

7%
2%

3%

Pacific
Ocean

150.1-200
100.1-150
50.1-100
25.1-50

12

Asia

57%

2%

Chinas imports in
bn USD, 2012
Percentage

12% share of
imports

Source: International Trade

3%

Indian
Ocean

2%

5%

About the author

Malte Humpert is the founder and Executive Director of The Arctic Institute. His research focuses on Arctic
shipping and shipping scenarios, Chinas geopolitical and geoeconomic interests in the region, the impact of
climate change on the Arctic environment, and the development of oil and gas resources throughout the Arctic
region. He has been working on Arctic issues since 2007 and regularly participates in Arctic-related events and
conferences in North America and Europe. He routinely publishes articles, research papers, as well as op-eds and
blog posts relating to climate change in general and the Arctic in particular. His work has been quoted or cited
by, among others, the Council on Foreign Relations, the Associated Press, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, The
Economist, New Scientist, Bloomberg, the Washington Post and Al Jazeera. He has also been featured on CNN,
Al Jazeera, Russia Today, Rv Icelandic Television and Radio National Australia.
Comments or questions?
malte.humpert@thearcticinstitute.org
+1.202.656.6258

Downloads
To download a PDF copy of this report go to: thearctic.in/1wo0Eb7
To download last years report, The Future of Arctic Shipping: A New Silk Road for China, go to: thearctic.in/1wo0kJk

Europe

16%

7%

Atlantic
Ocean

5%

2%

9% 10%
3%

7%
2%

3%

Pacific
Ocean

150.1-200
100.1-150
50.1-100
25.1-50

Asia

57%

2%

Chinas imports in
bn USD, 2012
Percentage

3%

Indian
Ocean

2%

5%

12% share of
imports

Source: International Trade

13

Europe

16%

7%

Atlantic
Ocean

5%

2%

9% 10%
3%

7%
2%

3%

Pacific
Ocean

150.1-200
100.1-150
50.1-100
25.1-50

Asia

57%

2%

Chinas imports in
bn USD, 2012
Percentage

3%

Indian
Ocean

2%

5%

12% share of
imports

Source: International Trade

Europe

16%

7%

Atlantic
Ocean

Pacific
Ocean
Chinas imports in
bn USD, 2012
150.1-200
100.1-150
50.1-100
25.1-50

Percentage

12% share of
imports

Source: International Trade

The Arctic Institute | Center for Circumpolar Security Studies

The Arctic Institute | Center for Circumpolar Security Studies
P.O. Box 32175
Washington, DC 20007
+1.202.656.6258
www.thearcticinstitute.org
info@thearcticinstitute.org

3%

5%