International trade accompanies international peace; that is why peace is sought. Obama
used trade to forge alliances in pursuit of geopolitical interests. The Trans Pacific Trade
Agreement during his time was meant to broaden and reinforce a security alliance against
China. Otherwise, he mostly stuck to what had already been signed, like Nafta. Most of
Obamas time went in tending to wars while recovering from a debilitating economic
recession. He could not forge major initiatives on the economic front. Yet his single most
achievement was recovering a recessed economy in 2008 and moving it forward.
Bedevilled by such existential challenges, he rarely had the time or the opportunity to
bring rapid improvements to the lives of the people across the board.
Obamas policies tended to be inclusive. Obamacare is likely the first to be axed by
Trump to cut down on social security expense by the government. Trump will either
cancel or renegotiate most trade agreements that have been in vogue over the decades.
That should instil a sure wariness among most of Americas trading partners and the
larger corporate world. China should be rightly worried about what the future holds. The
World Trade Order may be in for some serious jolts. Most stock exchanges will need time
to adjust.
The two other global initiatives that President Obama enforced dealt with climate
change and nuclear proliferation. He got awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in recognition
of his initiative to bring the world nuclear order under some regulation to mitigate the
possibility of proliferation. On both counts, these run contrary to Trumps world view.
Though Trump will hardly be cavalier on the nuclear issue as he deals with it in earnest,
climate change to him is a typically liberalist undertaking overblown to keep the US
lagging in economic growth.
Trump is likely to flaunt his military strength in consonance with the US nuclear power
to lever its uncontested status as worlds sole superpower. Trumps America will thus be
more assertive and less defensive. He will use such influence to forge a different order
rewriting the rules of global business in Americas favour. Re-industrialisation of the
American economy may be on the cards. That will bring jobs back to rural America, but
the world instead of moving forward will have moved backward.
This is the moment of Brexit Plus Plus, as Trump calls it. The Right nationalist
movements in Europe are overjoyed at Trumps victory. They all plan to win their
countries back from those originally not from there. The larger global village may not be
so anymore. But there will be one imperative: the imperative of markets which will test
the limits of Trumps cavalierism.
What he might make in the US while producing growth will need to be marketed. That
will bind him to the international market and subdue his instinct to shun others. That may
be the only saving grace in protecting this worlds internationalism and free trade. Any
wall that he might build will necessarily have to have very large windows. That doesnt
promise a smooth ride, but a ride it can still be.
Email: shhzdchdhry@yahoo.com