2 2012
Company Information:
Price [November 26, 2012] :
IDR 1,700
Target Price
IDR 2,025
52wk Range
: 435.00 - 1,640.00
JCI
4,375
Beta
1.37
IDR 3,062,244
1,801.32
Stock Code
ADHI
Sector
Construction
3Q11
2Q12
Revenue
1,184
1,790
51.16%
36.86%
80
79
158
100.08%
96.69%
EBT
47
51
108
111.31%
129.27%
150.89%
586.89%
150.89%
570.08%
Net Income
EPS
24
59
0.66%
2.00%
3.32%
4.92
13.14
32.98
61%
Public - Local
30%
Public - Foreign
19%
40,000,000
35,000,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
30,000,000
1,200
25,000,000
1,000
20,000,000
800
15,000,000
600
10,000,000
400
5,000,000
200
M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S
Y-Y
1,308
45,000,000
Q-Q
Operating Income
Government
Share Performance:
3Q12
Profit Margin
Outlook
Outlook:
Seriousness of the government in prioritizing infrastructure development has a positive
impact on ADHI.
ADHI As a state-owned enterprise (SOE), ADHI has big opportunities to obtain the
projects. Government programs to expedite the project deployment process, MP3EI and PPP,
will remain as
a catalyst to accelerate project to be started. ADHIs
ADHI effort to achieve revenue
and contract targets will be reached following the pattern that always gets a lot more
m
in the
last quarter.
quarter We believe ADHI could achieve its IDR13.5
5 trillion contract target this year by
seeing its pattern in getting more project in last quarter especially government project.
ADHIs decision to create new line business, property and real estate,
estate in order to stabilize its
st
revenues is found as a right decision. Recurring income will reduce its lack of revenue in 1
nd
and 2 Quarter. ADHIs ace project, Monorail, is likely to have big chance to be selected by
the newly elected Jakarta governor
go
rather than MRT.
th
Outstanding
ding performance in 3 Quarter and its potential to create better performance in 4
Quarter make ADHI as one of the leading stock from construction sector. Government
seriousness in improving infrastructure quality implies large of potential in years ahead.
ahead Our
calculation through DCF method led us to the fair price
pr at IDR2,025
25 with potential 19% upside
In 2013.
FINANCIAL
Revenue Pattern: always fat in 4th quarter::
th
Property
2%
EPC
10%
Construction
Services
86%
The biggest contributor in ADHIs revenue comes from its Construction Services business with 86% from its revenue in 3Q 2012,
2012
while ADHIs new business line, Property, contribute 2%. Compare to its revenue in 3Q 2011, ADHIs
ADHI revenue grow 36.9%,
Construction Services grow 30%, EPC grow 76% and Real Estates grow 21%.
21%
90%
80%
9%
ADHIs EBIT contributor composition is a bit different than its Revs. Property
contribute 9% with 43% margin while Real Estates only 1% with 8% margin.
Construction Services still the biggest contributor followed by EPC. ADHIs EBIT
grow by 56% with 11% margin from its Revs compare to same period last year.
year
Construction Services grow 34%, EPC grow 283% while Real Estates down
d
by 67%.
Property
76%
70%
60%
50%
43%
40%
30%
20%
10%
10%
14%
16%
1%
0%
Construction
Services
EPC
EBIT
8%
Real Estates
Gross Margin
Billions
150
Selling
100
General
Salary and Allowances
50
2010
2011
ADHIs operating cost grew by 6% compare to its cost in 3 quarter 2011. Slower growth in operating cost made ADHI could book
rd
more EBIT in 3 quarter. Salary & Allowances and Depreciation cost grew by 16% and 50% while General and Selling cost down by
12% and 1%.
Earnings Performance:
92.71
62.69
2007
108.23
103.97
2010
2011
46.89
2008
2009
ADHI shows strong earnings growth by 570% in 3Q 2012 compare to its earning in 3Q 2011. ADHIs strong 3rd
3 Quarter performance
also supported by its 4-year
year earnings CAGR at 13.48%. If ADHI could achieve its 2012 earnings target, then ADHI will have 5-year
5
earnings CAGR at 22.94%.
By Sector:
Market Capt. based on revenue in year 2011
ADHI booked the second biggest revenue by 27% below WIKA, compare to revenue of
all construction company in year 2011.
Market Cap.
ADHI
PTPP
SSIA
TOTL
WIKA
2,936,152
3,970,801
5,552,195
2,728,000
9,163,752
ROA
0.83%
NA
4.81%
2.61%
1.02%
ROE
5.65%
NA
11.75%
8.68%
4.67%
ADHI has the biggest growth in 3 Quarter yoy followed by SSIA and TOTL. Government plan in increasing infrastructure quality has
rd
given positive influence to government construction companies such as ADHI, PTPP and WIKA. PTPP has not released its 3 Quarter
report.
Outlook:
Contract target 2012
In IDR (tn)
EPC, 2.7
Property, 0.3
Construction,
10.4
Source: Company
ADHIs contract target in year 2012 is IDR13.5 trillion. Until October 2012, ADHI has achieved around 68% from its target
or around IDR9.2 trillion. The project dominated by Building, EPC and Road/ Toll Road project.
Most of ADHIs project came from government based project. As a statestate
owned enterprise (SOE), ADHI has the advantage in obtaining project from
the government and other SOE. Only 13% contract comes from private
sector.
Source: Company
Source: Company
Source: Company
Property
Mixed Use Area ADHI Kalimas
Source: Company
Source: Company
Monorail
ADHIs abandoned Monorail project has been pushed back since the newly governor of Jakarta, Joko Widodo whos also
known as Jokowi elected. Jokowi is known as someone who pro for public transportation development rather than
adding new road. New plan had been presenting to the newly governor and appears to be getting good impression. The
advantage of Monorail compared to MRT is that with lower budget,
budget, more lines could be covered. While Monorail seems
one step ahead of MRT, if ADHI could win this project which rumored to be announced in January, 2013, then this
project will boost ADHIs performance.
Sector Outlook
ADHIs contract target in 2012 shows that about 87% of the contract source is coming from government project. In 2013,
government plan to increase its budget for Infrastructure project. Around IDR204
IDR20 trillion will be prepared by
government for infrastructure only which increase 16.6%
16
compare to its budget this year around IDR174.9
IDR174. trillion.
Indonesia government
overnment estimates total funds that will be issued by government and private sector for infrastructure
development in 2013 is around IDR458
458 trillion. Government program, MP3EI and PPP, which created
cre
to expedite
infrastructure development and government spending, shows the seriousness and clarity of government to improve the
quality of Indonesian infrastructure within measured timeline.
Toward election in year 2014, will led year 2013 to be the golden year for ADHI. Incumbent government will strive to
make landmark to create positive impression for its assets prior to election.
election One of the impressions that are usually used
is successful in improving the quality of infrastructure to support economic development,
development, since lack of infrastructure
quality has been main concern to improve the Indonesian economy.
economy Thus, there
here is no doubt that ADHI will play big role
in any government and SOE project in 2013.
2013
ABOUT COMPANY
ADHIs Business Model:
Key Partnership
Key Activities
- Construction
- Operation & Maintenance
- Business development
- Humar resources development
- Marketing
Key Resources
- Brand "ADHI"
- SOE
- Human Resources
Value Preposition
Customer Relationship
- Experienced construction
company
- Integrated construction
company (Constructio, EPC, Real
Estates & Property)
- SOE
- Central & Regional
Government
- Private
Channel
- Advertising
- Marketing office
- Infrastructure & Property event
Cost Stream
Revenue Stream
- Construction Services
- EPC
- Real Estates
- Property
Customer Segment
Projection Summary
Income Statement
2009
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
7,715
5,675
6,695
8,163
8,693
Cost
7,229
5,220
6,251
7,621
8,117
Operating Income
485
455
444
541
577
332
321
326
447
499
Taxes
169
131
144
112
125
Net Profit
163
190
183
335
375
Balance Sheet
2009
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
307
242
552
673
717
94
3,498
3,132
4,002
4,879
5,196
Inventories
814
681
822
1,002
1,067
Fixed assets
1,011
871
735
896
955
Total assets
5,629
4,928
6,113
7,453
8,028
2,850
2,214
3,133
3,819
4,067
988
771
973
1,186
1,263
Depreciation
494
416
770
812
812
4,331
3,401
4,875
5,817
6,143
567
666
254
268
268
4,898
4,067
5,129
6,085
6,410
731
861
984
1,367
1,618
5,629
4,928
6,113
7,453
8,028
2012E
2013E
2009
2010
2011
92.71
108.23
103.97
176.50
197.20
416.11
490.04
559.73
719.98
851.83
Debt Ratio
87.01%
82.52%
83.91%
81.65%
79.85%
Return on Assets
2.89%
3.86%
2.99%
4.50%
4.67%
Return on Equity
22.28%
22.09%
18.57%
24.51%
23.15%
4.75
8.22
7.69
9.10
10.50
2.11%
3.35%
2.73%
4.11%
4.31%
Will managed
m
to maintain Profit
Margin around 4%
Medan:
West Plaza Lt 5
Jl. Diponegoro No 16
Medan 20152
Telp: +6261 - 455 8545
Fax: +6261 - 457 5548
Palembang:
Komplek PTC Mall
Blok 1 No 8
Jl. R. Sukamto, Palembang
Telp:+62711 - 382627
Solo;
JlSlametRiyadi No 401
Surakarta
Telp: +62271 - 711958
Disclaimers:
PT. AsjayaIndosurya Securities does not give any warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness and reliability of this report
report as it only expresses his/her personal
views. This report is prepared for internal use and clients of PT. AsjayaIndosurya Securities only. PT. AsjayaIndosurya Securities
Secur
does not responsible for any
transactions with regard to any recommendation mentioned in this report. The final
final decision is in your hands. Please learn of risk and return first before making an
investment