13th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering

Vancouver, B.C., Canada

August 1-6, 2004
Paper No. 655

STRONG GROUND MOTION PREDICTION FOR HUGE SUBDUCTION

EARTHQUAKES USING A CHARACTERIZED SOURCE MODEL AND
SEVERAL SIMULATION TECHNIQUES
Katsuhiro KAMAE1, Hidenori KAWABE2 and Kojiro IRIKURA3

SUMMARY
In Japan, the Central Disaster Prevention Council in Japan has opened the seismic intensity map due to
future huge subduction earthquake linked by Nankai and Tonankai earthquakes occurred on the Nankai
trough. In this study, we tried to predict broad-band strong ground motions of engineering interest during
future subduction earthquakes using the empirical Greens function method. Furthermore, to understand
the effects of the 3-dimensional deep underground structure of the Osaka basin to the long period ground
motions, we carried out the 3-D finite difference simulation. We basically use the characterized source
model composed of asperities based on the recipe for predicting strong ground motions from the
subduction earthquakes by Irikura et al. [1]. In mega-city Osaka located inside basin, the long period
ground motions (4 ~ 6 seconds) with very long duration have been predicted for both huge earthquakes.
The amplitude of the predicted response spectrum is over the design spectrum around period of five
second. These results suggest that we need to investigate the seismic safety of high-rise buildings and
base-isolated buildings and so on.

INTRODUCTION
In Japan, long-term probabilities of several huge subduction earthquakes have been evaluated by the
Headquaters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP). The huge subduction earthquakes along the
Nankai trough have the high potential for the next occurrences. On the other hand, the Central Disaster
Prevention Council in Japan has recently opened the seismic intensity map due to future huge subduction
earthquake linked by Nankai and Tonankai earthquakes occurred along the Nankai trough. In order to
mitigate the disaster caused by such earthquakes, it is very important to predict not only the seismic
intensity but also the broad-band strong ground motions of engineering interest before events. A
methodology has been proposed to estimate the strong ground motions from scenario earthquakes (inland
earthquakes as well as subduction earthquakes) by Irikura et al. [1]. They call it the recipe for strong
ground motion prediction of future earthquakes. In this study, we try to predict broad-band strong ground
1

Associate Professor, Research Reactor Inst., Kyoto Univ., Osaka, Japan

Research Associate, Research Reactor Inst., Kyoto Univ., Osaka, Japan
3
Professor, Disaster Prevention Research Inst., Kyoto Univ., Kyoto, Japan
2

motions from the hypothetical Nankai (M8.4) as well as the Tonankai (M8.1) earthquakes based on the
recipe. In particular, we concentrate the prediction of strong ground motions inside the Osaka basin with
very complicated underground structure. Broad-band strong ground motions have been estimated by the
empirical Greens function method. Furthermore, the characteristics of long period ground motions have
been preliminarily investigated by the 3-D finite difference method considering 3-D underground structure
of the Osaka basin.

SOURCE MODEL
We basically use the characterized source model proposed by the HERP. Such a model is based on the
recipe for strong ground motion prediction by Irikura et al. [1]. Fig.1 shows the source model composed of
three asperities on the fault for the Nankai and the Tonankai earthquakes. The area of the largest asperity
and the area of the combined asperities for each source model are basically determined from the selfsimilar scaling relations of asperities with respect to seismic moments derived statistically from the source
inversion results for actual earthquakes. The main source parameters for each earthquake are summarized
in Table 1. In case of estimating individual occurrence of the Nankai and the Tonankai earthquakes, the
rupture starting points for both earthquakes were put at symbol 1 and 2, respectively. We assumed the
rupture propagates radially. Furthermore, in case of estimating linked one of both earthquakes, we
assumed the rupture starts at the symbol 2 and the rupture restarts at 1 after S-wave reached at 1
and each rupture propagates radially.

132
36

133

134

135

136

137

138
36

DIG

WOS FKS OSA MRG YAE

35

35

KYU
HSD
Asp-3

EGF-2

WKY
Asp-2

34
SHI

33

Asp-3

Asp-2 EGF-1
MUR
Asp-1

34

Asp-1

2 Tonankai
earthquake (M8.1)

33

Nankai earthquake (M8.4)

32
132

32
133

134

135

136

137

138

Fig. 1 Map showing the source model composed of three asperities on the fault for the
Nankai and the Tonankai earthquakes and site locations. EGF-1 and EGF-2 are the
epicenters of earthquakes used as the empirical Greens functions for the Nankai and the
Tonankai earthquakes, respectively.

Table 1 Source parameters for the Nankai and the Tonankai earthquakes
Magnitude
Fault Area (Km2)
Seismic Moment (N m)
Averaged Stress Drop (Mpa)
Rupture Velocity (km/sec)

Area (km2)
Averaged slip (cm)
Seismic Moment (N m)
Stress Drop (MPa)

Area (km )
Averaged slip (cm)
Seismic Moment (N m)
Stress Drop (MPa)

Nankai earthquake
8.4
35800
8.34E+21
3
2.7

Tonankai earthquake
8.1
14500
2.15E+21
3
2.7

Asperity
1
2
3
2672
1336
1336
1141
954
954
1.46E+21 5.16E+20 5.16E+20
20.1
20.1
20.1

Asperity
1
2
3
1082
541
541
850
601
601
3.76E+20 1.33E+20 1.33E+20
20.1
20.1
20.1

Back Ground
30457
470
5.85E+21
2.7

Back Ground
12336
299
1.51E+21
2.7

SYNTHETICS BY THE EMPIRICAL GREENS FUNCTION METHOD

Firstly, we predicted broad-band strong ground motions at several sites by the empirical Greens function
method by Irikura [2]. The locations of sites are shown in Fig.1, together with the epicenter of the
earthquakes (EGF-1 and EGF-2) used as the empirical Greens functions.
The symbols and showing site locations depict the sediment sites inside basin, rock outcropping sites
or hard sediment sites, respectively. Table 2 shows the information of the earthquakes as the empirical
Greens functions and its source parameters estimated roughly from the displacement source spectra
computed as vectorial summation of two horizontal components of the recordings at hard sediment sites.
Fig.2 shows the empirical Greens functions at 5 sites (OSA, WOS, WKY, MUR and SHI) for the Nankai
earthquake. You can easily see that the waveforms represent the characteristics due to each site condition.
Fig.3 shows the synthesized ground motions at 5 sites from the Nankai earthquake. When we concentrate
the synthetics at OSA and WOS inside basin, we can point out the long duration affected by the long path
as well as the effect due to 3-dimensional underground structure of the basin. Furthermore, as you can see
in Fig.4 depicting pseudo velocity response spectra, the synthetics are predominant in long period range (4
~ 6 seconds). These amplitudes are over the safety regulation of the standard design spectra in Japan. This
result suggests the strong effect to high-rise buildings and base-isolated buildings with long natural
period. Fig.5 and Fig.6 show the synthesized ground motions and these pseudo velocity response spectra
at 6 sites (FKS, MRG, YAE, DIG, HSD and KYU) for the Tonankai earthquake. The peak horizontal
accelerations and velocities as well as the predominant periods of the synthetic motions inside basin are
almost the same as those predicted for the Nankai earthquake, although the site locations for both
earthquakes are slightly different each other. Finally, the synthesized ground motion and the pseudo

velocity response spectra at OSA in Osaka city in case of the linked occurrence of both earthquakes are
shown in Fig.7 and Fig.8 together with the synthetics in case of the individual occurrence. These figures
show the amplitude of the predicted ground motions in case of the linked earthquake becomes slightly
larger than the individual earthquake. From these results, we can emphasize the necessity of the more
advanced prediction of long period ground motions in mega-city Osaka located inside the Osaka basin. In
next section, we carry out a preliminary theoretical calculation for long period ground motions during the
Tonankai earthquake to investigate the effects of the 3-dimensional basin structure as well as the rupture
propagation.

Table 2 Source parameters for the earthquakes used as the

empirical Greens functions

Date
Latitude (deg)
Longitude (deg)
Depth (km)
Magnitude (JMA)
Seismic Moment (Nm)
Fault Area (km2)
Stress Drop (MPa)

50

100

150

200

(s)

-0.3

Vel. (cm/s)

0.3
0
0

50

100

150

200

250
(s)

0.4

SHIO NS Max: 9.75 gal

0
0

50

100

150

200

MURO NS Max: 6.75 gal

0
0

50

100

150

200

-7

WOS NS Max: 0.32 cm/s

-0.4

50

100

150

200

250
(s)

-10

OSA NS Max: 0.26 cm/s

-0.3

Vel. (cm/s)

250

Acc. (gal)

EGF-2
2000/10/31
34.2
136.4
40
5.7
1.70E+17
4
50

10

WKY NS Max: 0.25 cm/s

Acc. (gal)

Vel. (cm/s)

0.3

EGF-1
1991/10/20
33.395
135.248
37
5.1
3.00E+16
1.5
40

250
(s)

Fig. 2 Acceleration and velocity waveforms used as the empirical Greens functions

250
(s)

10

Acc. (gal)

SHIO NS Max: 242.14 gal

0
0

50

100

150

200

250

300
(s)

Vel. (cm/s)

250

-250

50

100

150

200

250

300
(s)

Vel. (cm/s)

Acc. (gal)

-250

50

100

150

200

250

300
(s)

MURO NS Max: 10.47 cm/s

0
0

50

100

150

200

250

300
(s)

-15
15

WKY NS Max: 55.22 gal

0
0

50

100

150

200

250

300
(s)

Vel. (cm/s)

100
Acc. (gal)

15

MURO NS Max: 204.60 gal

-100

WKY NS Max: 10.27 cm/s

0
0

50

100

150

200

250

300
(s)

-15
30

OSA NS Max: 68.31 gal

0
0

50

100

150

200

250

300
(s)

Vel. (cm/s)

100
Acc. (gal)

-10

250

-100

OSA NS Max: 28.30 cm/s

0
0

50

100

150

200

250

300
(s)

-30
30

WOS NS Max: 84.87 gal

0
0

50

100

150

200

250

300
(s)

Vel. (cm/s)

100
Acc. (gal)

SHIO NS Max: 7.22 cm/s

-100

WOS NS Max: 25.55 cm/s

0
0

50

100

150

200

250

-30

Fig. 3 Predicted acceleration and velocity motions at 5 sites for the Nankai earthquake.

)s/
m
c(
ar
tc
ep
s
es
no
ps
er
yti
co
le
v
od
ue
sP

180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0

OSA NS
WOS EW
safety regulation
damage regulation

4
6
Period (s)

10

Fig. 4 Pseudo velocity response spectra of the predicted ground motions for the Nankai
earthquake at OSA and WOS sites located inside the Osaka basin. A couple of the design
spectra are depicted in this figure.

300
(s)

0
0

50

100

150

200

250

300
(s)

-100

50

100

150

200

250

300
(s)

-200

50

100

150

200

250

300
(s)

Vel. (cm/s)

Acc. (gal)

-250

100

150

200

250

300
(s)

HSD Max:11.23cm/s

0
0

50

100

150

200

250

300
(s)

KYU Max:24.49cm/s

0
0

50

100

150

200

250

300
(s)

-30
30

FKS Max:131.43gal
0
0

50

100

150

200

250

300
(s)

-150

Vel. (cm/s)

150
Acc. (gal)

50

30

KYU Max:233.05gal

FKS Max:29.41cm/s

0
0

50

100

150

200

250

300
(s)

-30
40

MRG Max:169.44gal
0
0

50

100

150

200

250

300
(s)

-200

Vel. (cm/s)

200

MRG Max:32.93cm/s

0
0

50

100

150

200

250

300
(s)

-40

150

40

Y A E M ax:147.98gal
50

100

150

200

250

300

-150

Vel. (cm/s)

Acc. (gal)

-10

250

10

HSD Max:159.19gal

DIG Max:9.03cm/s

-10

200
Acc. (gal)

Vel. (cm/s)

10

DIG Max:78.52gal

Vel. (cm/s)

Acc. (gal)

100

YAE Max:36.83cm/s

0
0

50

100

150

200

250

300
(s)

-40

Fig. 5 Predicted acceleration and velocity motions at 6 sites for the Tonankai earthquake.
120
.
)s
/100
mc
(
ar
tc
ep 80
s
es
n
op 60
se
r
tyi
c 40
ol
ev
od
u 20
es
P
0

D IG
HSD
KY U
FK S
M RG
YA E

6
P eriod (s)

10

Fig. 6 Pseudo velocity response spectra of the predicted ground motions for the Tonankai earthquake
at 6 sites located inside (FKS,MRG,YAE) and outside (DIG,KYU,HSD) the Osaka basin.

0
0

100

200

300

400
(s)

100

200

40

120
Acc. (gal)

300

400
(s)

-40

-120

Max:101.94(gal)

0
0

100

200

300

400
(s)

Max:24.35(cm/s)

0
0

100

200

300

400
(s)

-40

-120

40

Max:104.60(gal)
0
0

100

200

300

400
(s)

Vel. (cm/s)

120
Acc. (gal)

Max:28.30(cm/s)

Vel. (cm/s)

Acc. (gal)

Max:68.31(gal)

Vel. (cm/s)

40

120

Max:33.90(cm/s)

0
0

100

200

300

400
(s)

-40

-120

Pseudo velocity response spectra (cm/s) .

Fig. 7 Predicted acceleration and velocity motions at OSA site in case of the linked
occurrence of the Nankai and the Tonankai earthquakes.
180
160

Nankai

140

Tonankai

120

Tonankai and Nankai

100

damage regulation
safety regulation

80
60
40
20
0
0

10

Period (s)

Fig. 8 Pseudo velocity response spectra of the predicted ground motions at OSA site in cases of
the individual occurrence of the Nankai and the Tonankai earthquakes and the linked
occurrence of both earthquakes. A couple of the design spectra are depicted in this figure.

PRELIMINARY GROUND MOTION PREDICTION USING THE 3-D FINITE DIFFERENCE

METHOD
We try to estimate long period ground motions using the 3-D finite difference method (Graves [3], Pitarka
[4]). The 3-dimentional underground structure models for the Osaka basin have been proposed by some
researchers (e.g., Miyakoshi et al. [5], Horikawa et al. [6]). Here, we constructed a rough threedimensional velocity model referring to Miyakoshi et al. [5] and Horikawa et al. [6]. The model has three
sediment layers on bedrock. The depth of each sedimentary layer is depicted in Fig. 9, and the parameters
of the sediment layers and bedrock are shown in Table 3. Fig. 10 shows the region of the finite-difference
simulation, together with source model composed of three asperities for the Tonankai earthquake. We
calculated velocity seismograms inside the basin from only asperity. All the synthetics are bandpass

filtered in the frequency range 0.1 to 0.4 Hz to exclude the numerical errors in higher frequencies. Fig. 11
shows synthetic peak velocity distributions for two horizontal components in case of two different starting
point shown in Fig.10. In both cases, the area showing large amplitude is appeared along the basin edges.
Furthermore, you can see the distributions for both components are drastically changed by the rupture
process. We compared the pseudo velocity response spectra by the 3-D simulation for Case-1 with those
by the empirical Greens function method. Fig. 12 shows the comparisons at three sites (FKS, MRG and
YAE) in Osaka. The fittings in predominant period are not complete except for YAE site. Such
discrepancies might come from the preciseness of the 3-D underground structure model as well as the
roughness in using an only earthquake as the empirical Greens function. We need to investigate the
validation of the 3-D model through some simulations of seismograms.

(a) The boundary depth of the 1st and the 2nd layer

(b) The boundary depth of the 2nd and the 3rd layer

(c) The boundary depth of the 3rd and the 4th layer

Fig. 9 Depth distribution of each sediment layer in 3-dimensional model of the Osaka basin.
Table 3 Physical parameters of each sediment layer and bedrock

Layer
1
2
3
4

Vs
Vp Density
(km/sec) (km/sec) (kg/m3)
0.40
1.6
1,700
0.55
1.8
1,800
1.00
2.5
2,100
3.20
5.4
2,700

Qs
40
60
100
400

68.2 km

km

Asp2
Asp1

190.2 km

79.2

Asp3

Case2

Case1
Rupture starting
point
273.6 km
Fig. 10 Map showing the region for calculating long period ground motions from the Tonankai
earthquake. The thick rectangular box depicts the region for the 3-D simulations. The dotted line
and the red lines indicate fault area and asperities, respectively.

(a) Case1 NS component

(b) Case1 EW component

(c) Case2 NS component

(d) Case2 EW component

Fig. 11 Synthetic peak velocity distributions for two horizontal components in case of assuming two
different starting points shown in Fig.10

FKS

MRG

YAE

100

120

Pseudo velocity response spectra

(cm/s) .

120

Pseudo velocity response spectra

(cm/s) .

Pseudo velocity response spectra

(cm/s) .

120

100

80
60
40
20

EGF
FDM

100

80
60
40
20

EGF
FDM

0
0

Period (s)

10

80
60
40
20

EGF
FDM

0
0

Period (s)

10

10

Period (s)

Fig.12 Comparison of the pseudo velocity response spectra of the broad-band ground motions by the
empirical Greens function method with those of the long period ground motions by 3-D finite
difference method. The effective period range for 3-D simulation is 2.5 to 10 sec.

CONCLUSIONS
We attempted to predict strong ground motions from future huge subduction earthquakes (Nankai and
Tonankai earthquakes) using the empirical Greens function method and 3-D finite difference method. In
mega-city Osaka located inside basin, the long period ground motions (4 ~ 6 seconds) with very long
duration have been predicted for both huge earthquakes. The amplitude of the predicted response
spectrum is over the design spectrum around period of 5 sec. These results suggest that we need to
investigate the seismic safety of high-rise buildings and base-isolated buildings and so on. Furthermore,
we need to increase the accuracies of the predicted strong ground motions inside the Osaka basin.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This work is partially supported by the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in Urban Areas
and US-Japan Cooperative Research for Urban Earthquake Disaster (Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research
on Priority Area (B)) by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan. We
used strong motion records observed by the Committee of Earthquake Observation and Research in
Kansai Area (CEORKA). The authors would like to thank these organizations.

REFERENCES
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predicting strong ground motion from future large earthquake, Annuals of Disaster Prevention
Research Institute, Kyoto University, No.46B,pp.105-120, (in Japanese with English abstract).
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Japan Earthquake Symp., pp.151-156.
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finite differences, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 86, 1091-1106.
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5.

Miyakoshi, K., T. Kagawa, B. ZHAO, T. Tokubayashi and S. Sawada (1999). Modeling of deep
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