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2 years old

Yc=Demand X=Years

Statistical Straight Line

a + bx

Yc=
a=

Y - bX
N

3,850.00
5

b=

NXY - XY
NX^2 - (X)^2

2,370.00
50

Historical Demand-Statistical Straight Line


Year
2011
2012
2013
2014

796.00
883.00
912.00
991.00
979.00
4,561.00

2016

X^2

1
2
3
4
5
15

1
4
9
16
25
55

XY

796.00
1,766.00
2,736.00
3,964.00
4,895.00
14,157.00

770.00
770.00
770.00
770.00
770.00

a + bx

3yo and above


Yc=Demand X=Years

a=

Y - bX
N

8,953.50
5

1,790.70

b=

NXY - XY
NX^2 - (X)^2

2,535.00
50

50.70

Statistical Straight Line


Yc=

Historical Demand-Statistical Straight Line


Year
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

1,795.00
1,903.00
1,970.00
2,092.00
1,954.00
9,714.00

X^2

1
2
3
4
5
15

1
4
9
16
25
55

XY

1,795.00
3,806.00
5,910.00
8,368.00
9,770.00
29,649.00

1,790.70
1,790.70
1,790.70
1,790.70
1,790.70

770.00

47.40

tical Straight Line


b

47.40
47.40
47.40
47.40
47.40

1
2
3
4
5

=Yc

817.40
864.80
912.20
959.60
1,007.00

Y-Yc

(21.40)
18.20
(0.20)
31.40
(28.00)

=(Y-Yc)^2/5
sd

(Y-Yc)^2

457.96
331.24
0.04
985.96
784.00
2,559.20
511.84

Year
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021

22.62

tical Straight Line


b

50.70
50.70
50.70
50.70
50.70

1
2
3
4
5

=Yc

1,841.40
1,892.10
1,942.80
1,993.50
2,044.20

Y-Yc

(46.40)
10.90
27.20
98.50
(90.20)

=(Y-Yc)^2/5
sd

(Y-Yc)^2

2,152.96
118.81
739.84
9,702.25
8,136.04
20,849.90
4,169.98
64.58

Year
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021

Projected Demand- Statistical Straight Line


a

770.00
770.00
770.00
770.00
770.00

47.40
47.40
47.40
47.40
47.40

7
8
9
10
11

Projected Demand- Statistical Straight Line


a

1,790.70
1,790.70
1,790.70
1,790.70
1,790.70

50.70
50.70
50.70
50.70
50.70

7
8
9
10
11

ne
=Yc
1,102
1,149
1,197
1,244
1,291

5,983

ne
=Yc
2,146
2,196
2,247
2,298
2,348

11,235

2yrs old

Arithmetic Straight Line


a+Yi-1
Yc=
a=

Yn-Yc
N-1

183

45.75

4
Historical Demand

Year
2011
2012
2013
2014

796.00
883.00
912.00
991.00
979.00

2015

Yn-Yc
N-1

45.75
45.75
45.75
45.75

796.00
841.75
887.50
933.25

3 and above

Arithmetic Straight Line


a+Yi-1
Yc=
a=

+Yi-1

159

39.75

4
Historical Demand

Year
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

1,795.00
1,903.00
1,970.00
2,092.00
1,954.00

+Yi-1

39.75
39.75
39.75
39.75

1,795.00
1,834.75
1,874.50
1,914.25

rical Demand

Projected Demand
=Yc

Y-Yc

(Y-Yc)^2

0
41.25
24.50
57.75

0
841.75
887.50
933.25
979.00

=(Y-Yc)^2/5
sd

0
1,701.56
600.25
3,335.06
-

Year
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021

5,636.88
1,127.38
33.58

rical Demand

Projected Demand
=Yc

Y-Yc
0
1,834.75
1,874.50
1,914.25
1,954.00

(Y-Yc)^2

0
68.25
95.50
177.75

=(Y-Yc)^2/5
sd

0
4,658.06
9,120.25
31,595.06
45,373.38
9,074.68
95.26

Year
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021

rojected Demand
a

45.75
45.75
45.75
45.75
45.75

+Yi-1

979.00
1,024.75
1,070.50
1,116.25
1,162.00

=Yc
1,025
1,071
1,116
1,162
1,208

5,581

rojected Demand
a

39.75
39.75
39.75
39.75
39.75

+Yi-1

1,954.00
1,993.75
2,033.50
2,073.25
2,113.00

=Yc
1,994
2,034
2,073
2,113
2,153

10,366

2 yo

Arithmetic Geometric Curve


Yc=
Yi+1
r

Yi+1
1+r
Value of the Year Ahead
= % increase
N+1

5.42%

Historical Demand
Year
2011
2012
2013
2014

796.00
883.00
912.00
991.00
979.00

2015

% increase
10.93%
3.28%
8.66%
-1.21%
21.67%

Yi+1
r

/(1 + r)
105.42%
105.42%
105.42%
105.42%

3yo and above

Arithmetic Geometric Curve


Yc=

Yi + 1
835.72
880.98
928.70
979.00

Yi+1
1+r
Value of the Year Ahead
= % increase
N-1

2.28%

Historical Demand
Year
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

1,795.00
1,903.00
1,970.00
2,092.00
1,954.00

% increase
6.02%
3.52%
6.19%
-6.60%
9.13%

Yi + 1
1,826.03
1,867.73
1,910.38
1,954.00

/(1 + r)
102.28%
102.28%
102.28%
102.28%

nd

Projected Demand

=Yc
792.78
835.72
880.98
928.70

Y-Yc
3.22262136
47.2832437
31.0181309
62.3013137

(Y-Yc)^2/2=
sd

(Y-Yc)^2
10.39
2,235.71
962.12
3,881.45
7,089.67
1,417.93
37.66

nd

Year
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021

Projected Demand

=Yc
1,785.27
1,826.03
1,867.73
1,910.38
1954

Y-Yc
9.73345904
76.9677684
102.271213
181.622537

(Y-Yc)^2/2=
sd

(Y-Yc)^2
94.74
5,924.04
10,459.40
32,986.75
49,464.92
9,892.98
99.46

Year
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021

Yi + 1
979.00
1,032.03
1,087.92
1,146.85
1,208.97

(1 + r)
105.42%
105.42%
105.42%
105.42%
105.42%

=Yc
1,032
1,088
1,147
1,209
1,274

5,750

Yi + 1
1,954.00
1,998.62
2,044.26
2,090.94
2,138.68

(1 + r)
102.28%
102.28%
102.28%
102.28%
102.28%

=Yc
1,999
2,044
2,091
2,139
2,188

10,460

Statistical Parabolic Method


Yc=

2yo
a + bx + cX^2

a= (X^4)(Y) - (X^2)(X^2Y)
N(X^4) - (X^2)^2
b=

XY
X^2

c=

N(X^2Y) - (X^2)(Y)
N(X^4) - (X^2)^2

Historical Demand
Year

2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

796.00
883.00
912.00
991.00
979.00
4,561.00

X^2

-2
-1
0
1
2

Statistical Parabolic Method


Yc=

4
1
0
1
4
10

3 yo and above
a + bx + cX^2

a= (X^4)(Y) - (X^2)(X^2Y)
N(X^4) - (X^2)^2
b=

XY
X^2

c=

N(X^2Y) - (X^2)(Y)
N(X^4) - (X^2)^2

140,366.00
70
507.00
10
(2,185.00)
70

Historical Demand
Year

2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

1,795.00
1,903.00
1,970.00
2,092.00
1,954.00
9,714.00

X^2

-2
-1
0
1
2

4
1
0
1
4
10

2yo

65,334.00
70
474.00
10
(740.00)
70

X^4

XY

16
1
0
1
16
34

(1,592.00)
(883.00)
991.00
1,958.00
474.00

933.34

47.40
(10.57)

(X^2)Y

3,184.00
883.00
991.00
3,916.00
8,974.00

933.34
933.34
933.34
933.34
933.34

47.40
47.40
47.40
47.40
47.40

(X^2)Y

(10.57)
(10.57)
(10.57)
(10.57)
(10.57)

o and above

2,005.23

50.70
(31.21)

X^4

XY

16
1
0
1
16
34

(3,590.00)
(1,903.00)
2,092.00
3,908.00
507.00

7,180.00
1,903.00
2,092.00
7,816.00
18,991.00

2,005.23
2,005.23
2,005.23
2,005.23
2,005.23

50.70
50.70
50.70
50.70
50.70

(31.21)
(31.21)
(31.21)
(31.21)
(31.21)

=Yc

796.26
875.37
933.34
970.17
985.86

=Yc

1,778.97
1,923.31
2,005.23
2,024.71
1,981.77

Y-Yc

(Y-Yc)^2

(0.26)
7.63
(21.34)
20.83
(6.86)

(Y-Yc)^2/2=

0.07
58.20
455.52
433.83
47.02
994.63
198.93

sd

14.10

Y-Yc

(Y-Yc)^2

16.03
(20.31)
(35.23)
67.29
(27.77)

(Y-Yc)^2/2=

256.92
412.67
1,241.05
4,527.37
771.25
7,209.26
1,441.85

sd

37.97

Projected Demand
Year
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Total

Projected Demand
Year
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
total

X^2

4
5
6
7
8

16
25
36
49
64

X^2

4
5
6
7
8

933.34
933.34
933.34
933.34
933.34

16
25
36
49
64

2,005.23
2,005.23
2,005.23
2,005.23
2,005.23

47.40
47.40
47.40
47.40
47.40

50.70
50.70
50.70
50.70
50.70

(10.57)
(10.57)
(10.57)
(10.57)
(10.57)

(31.21)
(31.21)
(31.21)
(31.21)
(31.21)

=Yc
954
906
837
747
636
4,080

=Yc
1,709
1,478
1,186
831
413
5,616

2Y0
Projected Demand
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Total
3YO
Projected Demand
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
total

X2

4
5
6
7
8
30

16
25
36
49
64
190

X^2

4
5
6
7
8
30

16
25
36
49
64
190

933.34
933.34
933.34
933.34
933.34

2,005.23
2,005.23
2,005.23
2,005.23
2,005.23

47.40
47.40
47.40
47.40
47.40

50.70
50.70
50.70
50.70
50.70

47.40
47.40
47.40
47.40
47.40

50.70
50.70
50.70
50.70
50.70

=Yc
1,881
2,355
2,924
3,588
4,346
15,095

=Yc
3,019
3,526
4,135
4,844
5,656
21,180

Statistical Straight Line Method


a + bx
Yc= Supply
Yc=

X= Years

a=

Y - bX
v

b=

NXY - XY
NX^2 - (X)^2

879.50
5

175.90

55.00

1.10

50

Historical Supply-Statistical Straight


Year
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

176
177
179
188
176
896.00

X^2

XY

1
2
3
4
5
15

1
4
9
16
25
55

176.00
354.00
537.00
752.00
880.00
2,699.00

175.90
175.90
175.90
175.90
175.90

Projected Supply- Statistical Straight Line


Year

2017
2018
2019
2020
2021

175.90
175.90
175.90
175.90
175.90

Historical Supply-Statistical Straight Line


b

=Yc

1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10

Y-Yc

177.00
178.10
179.20
180.30
181.40

(Y-Yc)^2

(1.00)
(1.10)
(0.20)
7.70
(5.40)

(Y-Yc)^2/2=

1.00
1.21
0.04
59.29
29.16
90.70
18.14

sd

4.26

ical Straight Line


b

1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10

=Yc

7
8
9
10
11

183.60
184.70
185.80
186.90
188.00

929.00

183.60
184.70
185.80
186.90
188.00
929.00

Arithmetic Straight Line


Yc=
a=

a+Yi-1
Yn-Yc
N-1

0
4

0
Historical Supply

Year
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

176.00
177.00
179.00
188.00
176.00

+Yi-1

176.00
176.00
176.00
176.00

Projected Supply
Year
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

+Yi-1

176.00
176.00
176.00
176.00
176.00

pply
=Yc

Y-Yc
176.00
176.00
176.00
176.00
176.00

(Y-Yc)^2

0
1.00
3.00
12.00

(Y-Yc)^2/2=
sd

=Yc
176.00
176.00
176.00
176.00
176.00

880.00

0
1.00
9.00
144.00
154.00
30.80
5.55

Arithmetic Geometric Curve


Yc=
Yi+1
r

Yi+1
1+r
Value of the Year Ahead
= % increase
N-1

0.09%

Historical Supply
Year
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

176.00
177.00
179.00
188.00
176.00

% increase
0.57%
1.13%
5.03%
-6.38%
0.34%

Yi + 1
175.55
175.70
175.85
176.00

Projected Supply
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

Yi + 1
176.00
176.15
176.30
176.45
176.60

(1 + r)
100.09%
100.09%
100.09%
100.09%
100.09%

storical Supply

/(1 + r)
100.09%
100.09%
100.09%
100.09%

=Yc
175.40
175.55
175.70
175.85
176

Y-Yc
0.6025275012
1.4520892826
3.3015220334
12.1508256428

(Y-Yc)^2/2=
sd

(Y-Yc)^2
0.36
2.11
10.90
147.64
161.01
32.20
5.67

=Yc
176.15
176.30
176.45
176.60
176.76

176
176
176
177
177

882.27

882

Statistical Parabolic Method


a + bx + cX^2
Yc=
a= (X^4)(Y) - (X^2)(X^2Y)
N(X^4) - (X^2)^2
b=

XY
X^2

c=

N(X^2Y) - (X^2)(Y)
N(X^4) - (X^2)^2

Histor
Year

2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

176
177
179
188
176
896.00

X^2

-2
-1
0
1
2

4
1
0
1
4
10

Projections
Projected Supply
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

X^2

4
5
6
7
8

16
25
36
49
64

12,734.00
70

181.91

11.00

1.10

10
(95.00)
70

(1.36)

Historical Supply
X^4

XY

16
1
0
1
16
34

(352.00)
(177.00)
188.00
352.00
11.00

X^2Y

704.00
177.00
188.00
704.00
1,773.00

181.91
181.91
181.91
181.91
181.91

1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10

(1.36)
(1.36)
(1.36)
(1.36)
(1.36)

Projections
a

181.91
181.91
181.91
181.91
181.91

1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10

(1.36)
(1.36)
(1.36)
(1.36)
(1.36)

=Yc

Y-Yc

(Y-Yc)^2

174.29
179.46
181.91
181.66
178.69

1.71
(2.46)
(2.91)
6.34
(2.69)

(Y-Yc)^2/2=

2.94
6.04
8.49
40.23
7.21
64.91
12.98

sd

3.60

=Yc
164.60
153.49
139.66
123.11

165
153
140
123

103.86

104

684.71

685