PENDAHULUAN
DEFINISI
Historical, atau
prospective (anticipated).
Uang (Dollar terms).
Persentasi (Percentage terms).
Contoh:
Berapa return atas investasi, dg kos $1,000 dan setelah 1 th dijual sebesar
$1,100?
Dollar return:
= $100.
Percentage return:
$ Received - $ Invested
$1,100
$1,000
$ Return/$ Invested
$100/$1,000
= 0.10 = 10%.
DEFINISI
bahaya (a hazard),
hambatan (a peril),
lawan dari aman (security atau safety),
mengarah ke rugi atau molor (injury).
Semakin besar kemungkinan bahwa return lebih rendah atau negatif, maka
investasi lebih berisiko.
Risiko:
1.
2.
Magsi UNS
Probability distribution
Stock X
Stock Y
-20
15
50
Rate of
return (%)
Investment Alternatives
Economy
Prob.
T-Bill
Alta
Recession
0.10
8.0% -22.0%
Below avg.
0.20
8.0
Average
0.40
Above avg.
Boom
Repo
Am F.
MP
28.0%
10.0% -13.0%
-2.0
14.7
-10.0
1.0
8.0
20.0
0.0
7.0
15.0
0.20
8.0
35.0
-10.0
45.0
29.0
0.10
8.0
50.0
-20.0
30.0
43.0
1.00
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Magsi UNS
Menghitung return
ekspektasian pd tiap alternatif
^
r = expected rate of return.
r=
rP .
i i
i=1
^
rAlta = 0.10(-22%) + 0.20(-2%)
+ 0.40(20%) + 0.20(35%)
+ 0.10(50%) = 17.4%.
Magsi UNS
Menghitung return
ekspektasian pd tiap alternatif
^r
17.4%
15.0
13.8
8.0
1.7
Alta
Market
Am. Foam
T-bill
Repo Men
peristiwa yg terjadi
probabilitas
E (R ) =
( Ri * i )
i =1
R=return
(( Ri E ( R ) )
i =1
Magsi UNS
= ri r Pi .
i =1
n
Magsi UNS
= ri r Pi .
i =1
n
Alta Inds:
= ((-22 - 17.4)20.10 + (-2 - 17.4)20.20
+ (20 - 17.4)20.40 + (35 - 17.4)20.20
+ (50 - 17.4)20.10)1/2 = 20.0%.
T-bills = 0.0%.
Alta= 20.0%.
Repo = 13.4%.
Am Foam = 18.8%.
Market = 15.3%.
Magsi UNS
Market
Prob.
T-bill
Am. F.
Alta
13.8
17.4
15
Magsi UNS
Menghitung Risiko
Expected
return
17.4%
15.0
13.8
8.0
1.7
Magsi UNS
Risk,
20.0%
15.3
18.8
0.0
13.4
KOVARIAN, CV = Expected
return/standard deviation.
CVT-BILLS
= 0.0%/8.0%
= 0.0.
CVAlta Inds
= 20.0%/17.4%
= 1.1.
CVRepo Men
= 13.4%/1.7%
= 7.9.
CVAm. Foam
= 18.8%/13.8%
= 1.4.
CVM
= 15.3%/15.0%
= 1.0.
Magsi UNS
Expected
return
17.4%
15.0
13.8
8.0
1.7
Magsi UNS
Risk:
20.0%
15.3
18.8
0.0
13.4
Risk:
CV
1.1
1.0
1.4
0.0
7.9
Return
15.0%
Mkt
USR
10.0%
T-bills
5.0%
Coll.
0.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
n
^
^
rp is a weighted average: ^
rp = wiri.
i=1
^
rp = 0.5(17.4%) + 0.5(1.7%) = 9.6%.
^
^ = antara ^r
r
dan
rRepo.
p
Alta
Magsi UNS
Metode Alternatif
Estimated Return
Economy
Recession
Below avg.
Average
Above avg.
Boom
Prob.
0.10
0.20
0.40
0.20
0.10
Alta
-22.0%
-2.0
20.0
35.0
50.0
Repo
28.0%
14.7
0.0
-10.0
-20.0
Port.
3.0%
6.4
10.0
12.5
15.0
^
rp = (3.0%)0.10 + (6.4%)0.20 + (10.0%)0.40
+ (12.5%)0.20 + (15.0%)0.10 = 9.6%.
Magsi UNS
Metode Alternatif
Two-Stock Portfolios
Magsi UNS
Prob.
Large
2
15
Return
p (%)
Company Specific
(Diversifiable) Risk
35
Stand-Alone Risk, p
20
Market Risk
0
10
20
30
40
2,000+
# Stocks in Portfolio
Magsi UNS
Lakukan regresi:
Market
25.7%
8.0%
-11.0%
15.0%
32.5%
13.7%
40.0%
10.0%
-10.8%
-13.1%
Magsi UNS
PQU
40.0%
-15.0%
-15.0%
35.0%
10.0%
30.0%
42.0%
-10.0%
-25.0%
25.0%
r KWE
20%
rM
0%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
-20%
-40%
R = 0.36
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Magsi UNS
Magsi UNS
Interpretasi Beta
Magsi UNS
Security
HT
Market
USR
T-bills
Collections
Expected
return
17.4%
15.0
13.8
8.0
1.7
Mana yg terbaik?
Magsi UNS
Risk, b
1.29
1.00
0.68
0.00
-0.86
Return yg Disyaratkan
(Required Rates of Return)
rAlta = 8.0% + (7%)(1.29)
= 8.0% + 9.0%
= 17.0%.
=
rM
rAm. F. =
rT-bill =
rRepo =
8.0% + (7%)(1.00)
8.0% + (7%)(0.68)
8.0% + (7%)(0.00)
8.0% + (7%)(-0.86)
Magsi UNS
= 15.0%.
= 12.8%.
= 8.0%.
= 2.0%.
Alta
17.4%
r
17.0% Undervalued
Market
15.0
15.0
Fairly valued
Am. F.
13.8
12.8
Undervalued
T-bills
8.0
8.0
Fairly valued
Repo
1.7
2.0
Overvalued
Magsi UNS
Alta
rM = 15
rRF = 8
. .
. T-bills
Market
Am. Foam
Repo
-1
Risk, bi
Magsi UNS
Return yg disyaratkan pd
portofolio
portofolio dg 50% Alta dan 50% Repo
rp = Weighted average r
= 0.5(17%) + 0.5(2%) = 9.5%.
Atau dg SML:
rp = rRF + (RPM) bp
= 8.0% + 7%(0.22) = 9.5%.
Magsi UNS
I = 3%
New SML
SML2
SML1
18
15
11
8
Original situation
0.5
1.0
Magsi UNS
1.5
2.0
Required Rate
of Return (%)
Stlh peningkatan
risk aversion
SML2
rM = 18%
rM = 15%
SML1
18
15
RPM = 3%
Situasi awal
1.0
Magsi UNS
Risk, bi
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Referensi
Brigham, Eugene F. dan Louis C. Gapenski. 2004.
Financial Management: Theory and Practice. Eighth
Edition. USA: The Dryden Press
Tambahan:
Ross, Stephen A.; Randolph W. Westerfield; Jeffrey
Jaffe. 2008. Modern Financial Management, 8th.
edition. Singapore: McGraw-Hill.
Jones, C. P. 2007. Investments: Analysis and
Management, 10th. edition. Singapore: John Willey &
Sons.
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